MLB Matchups: Predictions, Odds & Betting Trends

Final: 4 – 3
Chicago Cubs @ Arizona Diamondbacks

Cubs: 1-3 (25.0%) | Shota Imanaga (L): 0-1 (0.0%)

Diamondbacks: 1-1 (50.0%) | Brandon Pfaadt (R): 0-0 (0.0%)

Run line

Team Total

Total

Cubs

+102

+1.5 (-196)

o4.5 (+102)

8.5

Diamondbacks

-120

-1.5 (+164)

o4.5 (-101)

Open

Cubs

+103

-1.5 (+162)

o4.5 (+102)

8.5

Diamondbacks

-120

+1.5 (-196)

o4.5 (-101)

Odds Full MLB odds board

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Games
Conversions

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Injury Report CHCNo report ARINo report

Notes — no active systems for this matchup.

Baller Index Our Exclusive MLB Baller Index is a dynamic tool that adapts to MLB's latest trends, dynamically adjusting each team’s Starting Pitcher, Bullpen, and Team Batting ratings based on current performances and historical data. It factors in current form—reflecting recent player and team performances—and accounts for positive or negative regression to balance out extreme fluctuations. Compare our Matchup Rating System with the game line to see where the model and the market disagree. Regular season only.

Cubs

S. Imanaga	Unlock with Baller Access
Bullpen:	Unlock with Baller Access
Team Batting:	Unlock with Baller Access
Matchup:	Unlock with Baller Access

Diamondbacks

B. Pfaadt	Unlock with Baller Access
Bullpen:	Unlock with Baller Access
Team Batting:	Unlock with Baller Access
Matchup:	Unlock with Baller Access

Regression Analysis The Regression Analysis section is a strictly rule-based analysis designed to simplify and interpret what the data indicates. This section identifies potential regression signals and organizes them into a clear breakdown for each side. The goal isn't to tell you what to bet—it's to provide context.

By translating the data into plain language, this can help you understand how regression and matchup factors interact. These signals highlight tendencies, not guarantees, and are most effective when used alongside the rest of the matchup page for full context.

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Filters

Team Comparison Stats, Records and the sections tied to them follow these filters; each team's Schedule and Historical Matchups follow them when their switch is on.

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Schedules

Cubs Schedule Follow global filters

Date	Team Starter	Runs		Opponent Starter	Opp Runs	Line	Total
03/31/25 2025	Cubs Ben Brown (R)	-	@	Athletics Joey Estes (R)	-	-142	8.5
03/30/25 2025	Cubs Matthew Boyd (L)	-	@	Diamondbacks Eduardo Rodriguez (L)	-	-104	9.0
03/29/25 2025	Cubs Shota Imanaga (L)	-	@	Diamondbacks Brandon Pfaadt (R)	-	+100	9.0
03/28/25 2025	Cubs Jameson Taillon (R)	1	@	Diamondbacks Merrill Kelly (R)	8	+120	9.0
03/27/25 2025	Cubs Justin Steele (L)	10	@	Diamondbacks Zac Gallen (R)	6	+108	8.5
03/19/25 2025	Cubs Justin Steele (L)	3	vs.	Dodgers Roki Sasaki (R)	6	+118	7.5
03/18/25 2025	Cubs Shota Imanaga (L)	1	vs.	Dodgers Yoshinobu Yamamoto (R)	4	+130	8.5
Last season · shown for reference, not in the averages
09/29/24 2024	Cubs Caleb Kilian (R)	0	vs.	Reds Hunter Greene (R)	3 F/10	-102	7.0
09/28/24 2024	Cubs Kyle Hendricks (R)	3	vs.	Reds Rhett Lowder (R)	0	-130	7.0
09/27/24 2024	Cubs Jameson Taillon (R)	1	vs.	Reds Nick Martinez (R)	0	-126	6.5
09/25/24 2024	Cubs Javier Assad (R)	6	@	Phillies Cristopher Sanchez (L)	9	+146	8.0
09/24/24 2024	Cubs Justin Steele (L)	10	@	Phillies Tanner Banks (L)	4	-132	8.0
09/23/24 2024	Cubs Nate Pearson (R)	2	@	Phillies Aaron Nola (R)	6	+158	8.0

Away Games Avg (2 games this season)		5.5	-	-	7.0	+114	8.8

All Games Avg (4 games this season)		3.8	-	-	6.0	+119	8.4

Diamondbacks Schedule Follow global filters

Date	Team Starter	Runs		Opponent Starter	Opp Runs	Line	Total
04/01/25 2025	Diamondbacks Corbin Burnes (R)	-	@	Yankees Will Warren (R)	-	-108	8.5
03/30/25 2025	Diamondbacks Eduardo Rodriguez (L)	-	vs.	Cubs Matthew Boyd (L)	-	-112	9.0
03/29/25 2025	Diamondbacks Brandon Pfaadt (R)	-	vs.	Cubs Shota Imanaga (L)	-	-120	9.0
03/28/25 2025	Diamondbacks Merrill Kelly (R)	8	vs.	Cubs Jameson Taillon (R)	1	-145	9.0
03/27/25 2025	Diamondbacks Zac Gallen (R)	6	vs.	Cubs Justin Steele (L)	10	-126	8.5
Last season · shown for reference, not in the averages
09/29/24 2024	Diamondbacks Brandon Pfaadt (R)	11	vs.	Padres Martin Perez (L)	2	-220	8.5
09/28/24 2024	Diamondbacks Eduardo Rodriguez (L)	0	vs.	Padres Randy Vasquez (R)	5	-220	9.0
09/27/24 2024	Diamondbacks Merrill Kelly (R)	3	vs.	Padres Yu Darvish (R)	5	-126	9.0
09/25/24 2024	Diamondbacks Zac Gallen (R)	8	vs.	Giants Mason Black (R)	2	-270	8.5
09/24/24 2024	Diamondbacks Brandon Pfaadt (R)	0	vs.	Giants Logan Webb (R)	11	-152	8.5
09/23/24 2024	Diamondbacks Eduardo Rodriguez (L)	3	vs.	Giants Hayden Birdsong (R)	6	-184	8.5
09/22/24 2024	Diamondbacks Jordan Montgomery (L)	9	@	Brewers Frankie Montas (R)	10	+120	8.0
09/21/24 2024	Diamondbacks Merrill Kelly (R)	5	@	Brewers Aaron Civale (R)	0	-102	8.0

Home Games Avg (2 games this season)		7.0	-	-	5.5	-135	8.8

All Games Avg (2 games this season)		7.0	-	-	5.5	-135	8.8

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Records

Pitch Mix vs. Bats

Shota Imanaga's mix vs. ARI bats

Shota Imanaga's pitches			ARI hitters vs. that pitch type, from all pitchers
Pitch	Usage	Velo	Whiff%	Chase%	BA	xBA	xwOBA	xSLG	xISO	Hard%	Barrel%	Avg EV
4-Seam Fastball	49.5%	90.9	16.8% 1st	21.1% 2nd	.265 3rd	.324 26th	.362 4th	.599 22nd	.275 18th	45.1% 25th	11.6% 15th	90.8 20th
Split-Finger	30.5%	83.0	34.5% 15th	36.2% 20th	.207 18th	.288 25th	.250 21st	.467 22nd	.179 18th	36.3% 16th	6.0% 20th	88.1 8th
Sweeper	16.7%	80.4	30.2% 12th	32.2% 26th	.207 19th	.281 25th	.268 15th	.492 23rd	.211 19th	28.8% 24th	8.1% 16th	85.3 22nd
Curveball	1.5%	71.6	28.4% 9th	25.9% 4th	.220 20th	.340 8th	.321 2nd	.562 12th	.222 15th	35.3% 25th	6.9% 21st	87.2 20th
Sinker	1.3%	88.3	11.4% 1st	21.2% 2nd	.273 20th	.323 17th	.350 11th	.501 17th	.178 15th	48.9% 3rd	6.9% 15th	90.5 2nd
Slider	0.6%	81.7	32.2% 11th	31.5% 12th	.207 29th	.321 18th	.295 13th	.550 17th	.229 16th	41.2% 8th	8.4% 18th	89.0 6th
Whole mix, by usage			24.6% 5th	27.7% 17th	.237 11th	.306 27th	.311 11th	.539 23rd	.233 17th	39.6% 22nd	9.2% 19th	89.0 17th

2025 season totals. Usage and Velo are Shota Imanaga's; every other column is ARI's active hitters against that pitch type from every pitcher, not against him. (n) is ARI's place among the 30 clubs: 1 and green hit the pitch best, red is good for the pitcher.

Brandon Pfaadt's mix vs. CHC bats

Brandon Pfaadt's pitches			CHC hitters vs. that pitch type, from all pitchers
Pitch	Usage	Velo	Whiff%	Chase%	BA	xBA	xwOBA	xSLG	xISO	Hard%	Barrel%	Avg EV
Sinker	23.5%	93.1	13.7% 14th	26.9% 26th	.267 26th	.331 11th	.367 2nd	.534 9th	.203 7th	39.7% 29th	7.5% 11th	88.7 26th
4-Seam Fastball	23.4%	93.6	20.8% 14th	23.0% 11th	.238 25th	.347 6th	.354 11th	.673 4th	.326 6th	50.0% 7th	13.1% 6th	92.1 8th
Sweeper	18.6%	84.7	29.2% 9th	26.4% 6th	.190 26th	.303 17th	.268 15th	.492 23rd	.189 24th	33.1% 17th	6.6% 25th	86.8 11th
Changeup	15.7%	87.3	29.8% 12th	35.1% 21st	.240 10th	.325 9th	.301 5th	.540 4th	.215 4th	36.8% 6th	8.6% 7th	87.2 9th
Curveball	9.8%	82.0	30.4% 14th	25.5% 3rd	.240 7th	.351 5th	.306 5th	.633 2nd	.282 3rd	36.5% 19th	12.4% 2nd	87.2 20th
Cutter	9.2%	89.8	23.2% 22nd	26.0% 14th	.292 8th	.317 26th	.353 14th	.573 13th	.256 10th	39.6% 17th	9.9% 12th	88.3 17th
Whole mix, by usage			23.3% 11th	27.0% 15th	.241 22nd	.329 8th	.328 6th	.573 7th	.244 9th	40.1% 18th	9.5% 11th	88.7 13th

2025 season totals. Usage and Velo are Brandon Pfaadt's; every other column is CHC's active hitters against that pitch type from every pitcher, not against him. (n) is CHC's place among the 30 clubs: 1 and green hit the pitch best, red is good for the pitcher.

Starting Pitchers Recent Performance

Shota Imanaga Last 5 Starts

	H	A	Line	Total	IP	NP	K	BB	Hits	HR	ER	Runs	Opp Starter
3/18	LAD [ 4 ]	CHC [ 1 ]	+130	8.5	4	69	2	4	0	0	0	0	Yoshinobu Yamamoto (R)
9/22	CHC [ 5 ]	WSN [ 0 ]	-215	7.5	7	94	4	0	6	0	0	0	Jake Irvin (R)
9/16	CHC [ 9 ]	ATH [ 2 ]	-198	8	6	99	11	3	5	1	2	2	Joey Estes (R)
9/10	LAD [ 3 ]	CHC [ 6 ]	+128	8	7	89	4	0	7	3	3	3	Yoshinobu Yamamoto (R)
9/4	CHC [ 12 ]	PIT [ 0 ]	-210	8	7	95	7	2	0	0	0	0	Domingo German (R)
Averages:					6.2	89.2	5.6	1.8	3.6	0.8	1	1

Brandon Pfaadt Last 5 Starts

	H	A	Line	Total	IP	NP	K	BB	Hits	HR	ER	Runs	Opp Starter
9/29	ARI [ 11 ]	SDP [ 2 ]	-220	8.5	5.33	79	9	1	3	0	1	2	Martin Perez (L)
9/24	ARI [ 0 ]	SFG [ 11 ]	-152	8.5	2.67	62	4	2	6	2	4	5	Logan Webb (R)
9/19	MIL [ 1 ]	ARI [ 5 ]	-124	8.5	7	104	12	0	2	1	1	1	Tobias Myers (R)
9/14	ARI [ 8 ]	MIL [ 15 ]	-158	8.5	1.67	58	0	3	7	1	8	8	Tobias Myers (R)
9/6	HOU [ 8 ]	ARI [ 0 ]	+136	7.5	4.67	88	5	2	8	1	4	4	Framber Valdez (L)
Averages:					4.27	78.2	6	1.6	5.2	1	3.6	4

Bullpen Usage (Last 3 Days)

CHC Bullpen — Last 3 Days

Pitcher	3/26	3/27	3/28	App	IP	NP	K	BB	H	ER
Brad Keller	·	·	2.0 (46)	1	2.0	46	3	0	4	2
Eli Morgan	·	·	1.2 (23)	1	1.2	23	3	0	1	0
Caleb Thielbar	·	1.0 (13)	·	1	1.0	13	0	0	0	0
Nate Pearson	·	1.0 (31)	·	1	1.0	31	0	2	0	2
Porter Hodge	·	1.0 (23)	·	1	1.0	23	2	0	1	0
Ryan Pressly	·	1.0 (12)	·	1	1.0	12	0	0	2	1
Team Totals (6 arms used):				6	7.2	148	8	2	8	5

A day reads innings (pitches). NP = number of pitches over the window.

ARI Bullpen — Last 3 Days

Pitcher	3/26	3/27	3/28	App	IP	NP	K	BB	H	ER
Shelby Miller	·	·	2.0 (17)	1	2.0	17	3	0	0	0
Bryce Jarvis	·	1.2 (35)	·	1	1.2	35	2	1	3	2
Jalen Beeks	·	1.2 (14)	·	1	1.2	14	1	0	0	0
Ryne Nelson	·	1.2 (50)	·	1	1.2	50	3	1	5	4
Joe Mantiply	·	·	1.0 (10)	1	1.0	10	1	0	0	0
Ryan Thompson	·	·	0.2 (3)	1	0.2	3	0	0	0	0
Team Totals (6 arms used):				6	8.2	129	10	2	8	6

A day reads innings (pitches). NP = number of pitches over the window.

Notable Trends

First week of the season for the Diamondbacks: their records include last season.

No notable trends identified for this matchup.

View All Records

Diamondbacks (Home)

The Diamondbacks are 54.5% (90-75) on the moneyline

The Diamondbacks are 60.3% (38-25) on the moneyline as a home fav

The Diamondbacks are 59.7% (95-64-6) to the over

The Diamondbacks are 61.3% (38-24-1) to the over as a home fav

The Diamondbacks are 33.3% (1-2) (L30 days) on the moneyline

The Diamondbacks are 33.3% (1-2) (L30 days) on the moneyline as a home fav

The Diamondbacks are 50% (1-1-1) (L30 days) to the over

The Diamondbacks are 50% (1-1-1) (L30 days) to the over as a home fav

Cubs (Away)

The Cubs are 40% (2-3) on the moneyline

The Cubs are 66.7% (2-1) on the moneyline as an away dog

The Cubs are 50% (2-2-1) to the over

The Cubs are 50% (1-1-1) to the over as an away dog

The Cubs are 40% (2-3) (L30 days) on the moneyline

The Cubs are 66.7% (2-1) (L30 days) on the moneyline as an away dog

The Cubs are 50% (2-2-1) (L30 days) to the over

The Cubs are 50% (1-1-1) (L30 days) to the over as an away dog

Past Matchups (Last 7) Follow global filters

Date	Team Starter	Runs		Opponent Starter	Opp Runs	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
03/28/25 2025	Diamondbacks Merrill Kelly (R)	8	vs.	Cubs Jameson Taillon (R)	1	-145	9.0	-7	P 9 0.0
03/27/25 2025	Diamondbacks Zac Gallen (R)	6	vs.	Cubs Justin Steele (L)	10	-126	8.5	+4	O 16 +7.5
07/21/24 2024	Diamondbacks Brandon Pfaadt (R)	1	@	Cubs Shota Imanaga (L)	2 F/10	+110	7.0	+1	U 3 -4.0
07/20/24 2024	Diamondbacks Zac Gallen (R)	3	@	Cubs Kyle Hendricks (R)	0	-134	8.5	-3	U 3 -5.5
07/19/24 2024	Diamondbacks Ryne Nelson (R)	5	@	Cubs Justin Steele (L)	2	+132	8.0	-3	U 7 -1.0
04/17/24 2024	Diamondbacks Brandon Pfaadt (R)	3	vs.	Cubs Jordan Wicks (L)	5	-130	9.0	+2	U 8 -1.0
04/16/24 2024	Diamondbacks Tommy Henry (L)	12	vs.	Cubs Kyle Hendricks (R)	11 F/10	-120	10.0	-1	O 23 +13.0

Diamondbacks as Home (4 games)		7.3	-	-	6.8	-130	9.1	-0.5	O 14.0 +4.9

All Games Avg (7 games)		5.4	-	-	4.4	-115	8.6	-1.0	O 9.9 +1.3

MLB Matchups: Predictions, Odds & Betting Trends

Final: 4 – 3 Chicago Cubs @ Arizona Diamondbacks window.TMB_PAGE_CONTEXT = { page: 'matchup', sport: "mlb", away_team: "Chicago Cubs", home_team: "Arizona Diamondbacks", game_date: "2025-03-29" };

Odds Full MLB odds board

Injury Report CHCNo report ARINo report

Cubs

Diamondbacks

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Schedules

Cubs Schedule Follow global filters

Diamondbacks Schedule Follow global filters

Team Comparison Stats Loading...

Records

Pitch Mix vs. Bats

Starting Pitchers Recent Performance

Bullpen Usage (Last 3 Days)

Notable Trends

View All Records

Diamondbacks (Home)

Cubs (Away)

Past Matchups (Last 7) Follow global filters

Final: 4 – 3
Chicago Cubs @ Arizona Diamondbacks