MLB Matchups: Predictions, Odds & Betting Trends

Final: 1 – 8
Chicago Cubs @ Arizona Diamondbacks

Cubs: 1-2 (33.3%) | Jameson Taillon (R): 0-0 (0.0%)

Diamondbacks: 0-1 (0.0%) | Merrill Kelly (R): 0-0 (0.0%)

Run line

Team Total

Total

Cubs

+125

+1.5 (-172)

o4.5 (+113)

9.0

Diamondbacks

-146

-1.5 (+144)

o4.5 (-120)

Open

Cubs

+112

+1.5 (-191)

o4.5 (+113)

8.5

Diamondbacks

-129

-1.5 (+160)

o4.5 (-120)

Odds Full MLB odds board

Want to see only your books? Want to see where the sharp action is coming in? Become a member or log in.

Games
Conversions

Loading game odds...

Injury Report CHCNo report ARINo report

Notes

Cubs

Nothing active

Diamondbacks

Baller System(s)

Medium road fave with in-series revenge

Baller Index Our Exclusive MLB Baller Index is a dynamic tool that adapts to MLB's latest trends, dynamically adjusting each team’s Starting Pitcher, Bullpen, and Team Batting ratings based on current performances and historical data. It factors in current form—reflecting recent player and team performances—and accounts for positive or negative regression to balance out extreme fluctuations. Compare our Matchup Rating System with the game line to see where the model and the market disagree. Regular season only.

Cubs

J. Taillon	Unlock with Baller Access
Bullpen:	Unlock with Baller Access
Team Batting:	Unlock with Baller Access
Matchup:	Unlock with Baller Access

Diamondbacks

M. Kelly	Unlock with Baller Access
Bullpen:	Unlock with Baller Access
Team Batting:	Unlock with Baller Access
Matchup:	Unlock with Baller Access

Regression Analysis The Regression Analysis section is a strictly rule-based analysis designed to simplify and interpret what the data indicates. This section identifies potential regression signals and organizes them into a clear breakdown for each side. The goal isn't to tell you what to bet—it's to provide context.

By translating the data into plain language, this can help you understand how regression and matchup factors interact. These signals highlight tendencies, not guarantees, and are most effective when used alongside the rest of the matchup page for full context.

Loading regression analysis...

Filters

Team Comparison Stats, Records and the sections tied to them follow these filters; each team's Schedule and Historical Matchups follow them when their switch is on.

Loading filters...

Schedules

Cubs Schedule Follow global filters

Date	Team Starter	Runs		Opponent Starter	Opp Runs	Line	Total
03/30/25 2025	Cubs Matthew Boyd (L)	-	@	Diamondbacks Eduardo Rodriguez (L)	-	-104	9.0
03/29/25 2025	Cubs Shota Imanaga (L)	-	@	Diamondbacks Brandon Pfaadt (R)	-	+100	9.0
03/28/25 2025	Cubs Jameson Taillon (R)	-	@	Diamondbacks Merrill Kelly (R)	-	+120	9.0
03/27/25 2025	Cubs Justin Steele (L)	10	@	Diamondbacks Zac Gallen (R)	6	+108	8.5
03/19/25 2025	Cubs Justin Steele (L)	3	vs.	Dodgers Roki Sasaki (R)	6	+118	7.5
03/18/25 2025	Cubs Shota Imanaga (L)	1	vs.	Dodgers Yoshinobu Yamamoto (R)	4	+130	8.5
Last season · shown for reference, not in the averages
09/29/24 2024	Cubs Caleb Kilian (R)	0	vs.	Reds Hunter Greene (R)	3 F/10	-102	7.0
09/28/24 2024	Cubs Kyle Hendricks (R)	3	vs.	Reds Rhett Lowder (R)	0	-130	7.0
09/27/24 2024	Cubs Jameson Taillon (R)	1	vs.	Reds Nick Martinez (R)	0	-126	6.5
09/25/24 2024	Cubs Javier Assad (R)	6	@	Phillies Cristopher Sanchez (L)	9	+146	8.0
09/24/24 2024	Cubs Justin Steele (L)	10	@	Phillies Tanner Banks (L)	4	-132	8.0
09/23/24 2024	Cubs Nate Pearson (R)	2	@	Phillies Aaron Nola (R)	6	+158	8.0
09/22/24 2024	Cubs Shota Imanaga (L)	5	vs.	Nationals Jake Irvin (R)	0	-215	7.5

Away Games Avg (1 game this season)		10.0	-	-	6.0	+108	8.5

All Games Avg (3 games this season)		4.7	-	-	5.3	+118	8.2

Diamondbacks Schedule Follow global filters

Date	Team Starter	Runs		Opponent Starter	Opp Runs	Line	Total
03/30/25 2025	Diamondbacks Eduardo Rodriguez (L)	-	vs.	Cubs Matthew Boyd (L)	-	-112	9.0
03/29/25 2025	Diamondbacks Brandon Pfaadt (R)	-	vs.	Cubs Shota Imanaga (L)	-	-120	9.0
03/28/25 2025	Diamondbacks Merrill Kelly (R)	-	vs.	Cubs Jameson Taillon (R)	-	-145	9.0
03/27/25 2025	Diamondbacks Zac Gallen (R)	6	vs.	Cubs Justin Steele (L)	10	-126	8.5
Last season · shown for reference, not in the averages
09/29/24 2024	Diamondbacks Brandon Pfaadt (R)	11	vs.	Padres Martin Perez (L)	2	-220	8.5
09/28/24 2024	Diamondbacks Eduardo Rodriguez (L)	0	vs.	Padres Randy Vasquez (R)	5	-220	9.0
09/27/24 2024	Diamondbacks Merrill Kelly (R)	3	vs.	Padres Yu Darvish (R)	5	-126	9.0
09/25/24 2024	Diamondbacks Zac Gallen (R)	8	vs.	Giants Mason Black (R)	2	-270	8.5
09/24/24 2024	Diamondbacks Brandon Pfaadt (R)	0	vs.	Giants Logan Webb (R)	11	-152	8.5
09/23/24 2024	Diamondbacks Eduardo Rodriguez (L)	3	vs.	Giants Hayden Birdsong (R)	6	-184	8.5
09/22/24 2024	Diamondbacks Jordan Montgomery (L)	9	@	Brewers Frankie Montas (R)	10	+120	8.0
09/21/24 2024	Diamondbacks Merrill Kelly (R)	5	@	Brewers Aaron Civale (R)	0	-102	8.0
09/20/24 2024	Diamondbacks Zac Gallen (R)	7	@	Brewers Colin Rea (R)	4	-134	8.5

Home Games Avg (1 game this season)		6.0	-	-	10.0	-126	8.5

All Games Avg (1 game this season)		6.0	-	-	10.0	-126	8.5

Team Comparison Stats Loading...

Loading team comparison stats...

Records

Pitch Mix vs. Bats

Jameson Taillon's mix vs. ARI bats

Jameson Taillon's pitches			ARI hitters vs. that pitch type, from all pitchers
Pitch	Usage	Velo	Whiff%	Chase%	BA	xBA	xwOBA	xSLG	xISO	Hard%	Barrel%	Avg EV
4-Seam Fastball	38.2%	92.3	16.8% 1st	21.1% 2nd	.265 3rd	.324 26th	.362 4th	.599 22nd	.275 18th	45.1% 25th	11.6% 15th	90.8 20th
Sweeper	15.6%	80.2	30.2% 12th	32.2% 26th	.207 19th	.281 25th	.268 15th	.492 23rd	.211 19th	28.8% 24th	8.1% 16th	85.3 22nd
Cutter	14.8%	85.7	16.9% 1st	25.5% 8th	.286 9th	.340 7th	.384 2nd	.618 5th	.278 4th	41.1% 10th	10.7% 6th	88.2 18th
Curveball	12.9%	79.6	28.4% 9th	25.9% 4th	.220 20th	.340 8th	.321 2nd	.562 12th	.222 15th	35.3% 25th	6.9% 21st	87.2 20th
Changeup	11.3%	83.9	28.4% 8th	33.1% 13th	.240 10th	.305 21st	.290 15th	.494 21st	.189 15th	38.8% 3rd	7.0% 17th	87.6 5th
Sinker	7.2%	92.3	11.4% 1st	21.2% 2nd	.273 20th	.323 17th	.350 11th	.501 17th	.178 15th	48.9% 3rd	6.9% 15th	90.5 2nd
Whole mix, by usage			21.3% 2nd	25.5% 5th	.251 10th	.320 24th	.336 5th	.561 17th	.242 16th	40.3% 22nd	9.5% 17th	88.7 19th

2025 season totals. Usage and Velo are Jameson Taillon's; every other column is ARI's active hitters against that pitch type from every pitcher, not against him. (n) is ARI's place among the 30 clubs: 1 and green hit the pitch best, red is good for the pitcher.

Merrill Kelly's mix vs. CHC bats

Merrill Kelly's pitches			CHC hitters vs. that pitch type, from all pitchers
Pitch	Usage	Velo	Whiff%	Chase%	BA	xBA	xwOBA	xSLG	xISO	Hard%	Barrel%	Avg EV
Changeup	27.1%	88.3	29.8% 12th	35.1% 21st	.240 10th	.325 9th	.301 5th	.540 4th	.215 4th	36.8% 6th	8.6% 7th	87.2 9th
4-Seam Fastball	23.2%	91.9	20.8% 14th	23.0% 11th	.238 25th	.347 6th	.354 11th	.673 4th	.326 6th	50.0% 7th	13.1% 6th	92.1 8th
Cutter	20.2%	90.6	23.2% 22nd	26.0% 14th	.292 8th	.317 26th	.353 14th	.573 13th	.256 10th	39.6% 17th	9.9% 12th	88.3 17th
Sinker	12.9%	92.3	13.7% 14th	26.9% 26th	.267 26th	.331 11th	.367 2nd	.534 9th	.203 7th	39.7% 29th	7.5% 11th	88.7 26th
Curveball	9.7%	81.7	30.4% 14th	25.5% 3rd	.240 7th	.351 5th	.306 5th	.633 2nd	.282 3rd	36.5% 19th	12.4% 2nd	87.2 20th
Slider	7.0%	85.8	33.2% 16th	29.8% 5th	.212 26th	.295 30th	.278 27th	.502 28th	.207 23rd	32.8% 30th	7.7% 24th	85.5 30th
Whole mix, by usage			24.6% 12th	28.1% 19th	.252 15th	.330 11th	.331 5th	.583 4th	.253 3rd	40.5% 19th	10.1% 5th	88.6 17th

2025 season totals. Usage and Velo are Merrill Kelly's; every other column is CHC's active hitters against that pitch type from every pitcher, not against him. (n) is CHC's place among the 30 clubs: 1 and green hit the pitch best, red is good for the pitcher.

Starting Pitchers Recent Performance

Jameson Taillon Last 5 Starts

	H	A	Line	Total	IP	NP	K	BB	Hits	HR	ER	Runs	Opp Starter
9/27	CHC [ 1 ]	CIN [ 0 ]	-126	6.5	7	89	2	2	4	0	0	0	Nick Martinez (R)
9/20	CHC [ 3 ]	WSN [ 1 ]	-164	9.5	6	80	4	2	2	0	0	0	Trevor Williams (R)
9/14	COL [ 6 ]	CHC [ 5 ]	-146	10.5	6	85	6	1	5	1	2	2	Kyle Freeland (L)
9/8	CHC [ 2 ]	NYY [ 1 ]	+132	8.5	6	97	6	1	6	0	1	1	Gerrit Cole (R)
9/2	CHC [ 3 ]	PIT [ 5 ]	-146	7.5	7	89	3	1	3	0	0	0	Jared Jones (R)
Averages:					6.4	88	4.2	1.4	4	0.2	0.6	0.6

Merrill Kelly Last 5 Starts

	H	A	Line	Total	IP	NP	K	BB	Hits	HR	ER	Runs	Opp Starter
9/27	ARI [ 3 ]	SDP [ 5 ]	-126	9	5.67	99	8	1	8	0	5	5	Yu Darvish (R)
9/21	MIL [ 0 ]	ARI [ 5 ]	-102	8	5	72	6	0	2	0	0	0	Aaron Civale (R)
9/16	COL [ 3 ]	ARI [ 2 ]	-174	11	6	83	5	2	2	1	1	1	Antonio Senzatela (R)
9/11	ARI [ 14 ]	TEX [ 4 ]	-164	8.5	4	68	3	2	4	1	3	3	Cody Bradford (L)
9/5	SFG [ 3 ]	ARI [ 2 ]	+134	7.5	7	94	8	0	6	0	2	2	Blake Snell (L)
Averages:					5.53	83.2	6	1	4.4	0.4	2.2	2.2

Bullpen Usage (Last 3 Days)

CHC Bullpen — Last 3 Days

Pitcher	3/25	3/26	3/27	App	IP	NP	K	BB	H	ER
Caleb Thielbar	·	·	1.0 (13)	1	1.0	13	0	0	0	0
Nate Pearson	·	·	1.0 (31)	1	1.0	31	0	2	0	2
Porter Hodge	·	·	1.0 (23)	1	1.0	23	2	0	1	0
Ryan Pressly	·	·	1.0 (12)	1	1.0	12	0	0	2	1
Team Totals (4 arms used):				4	4.0	79	2	2	3	3

A day reads innings (pitches). NP = number of pitches over the window.

ARI Bullpen — Last 3 Days

Pitcher	3/25	3/26	3/27	App	IP	NP	K	BB	H	ER
Bryce Jarvis	·	·	1.2 (35)	1	1.2	35	2	1	3	2
Jalen Beeks	·	·	1.2 (14)	1	1.2	14	1	0	0	0
Ryne Nelson	·	·	1.2 (50)	1	1.2	50	3	1	5	4
Team Totals (3 arms used):				3	5.0	99	6	2	8	6

A day reads innings (pitches). NP = number of pitches over the window.

Notable Trends

First week of the season for the Diamondbacks: their records include last season.

The Cubs are 25% (1-3) on the moneyline

The Cubs are 25% (1-3) (L30 days) on the moneyline

View All Records

Diamondbacks (Home)

The Diamondbacks are 54.9% (90-74) on the moneyline

The Diamondbacks are 61.3% (38-24) on the moneyline as a home fav

The Diamondbacks are 60.1% (95-63-6) to the over

The Diamondbacks are 62.3% (38-23-1) to the over as a home fav

The Diamondbacks are 50% (1-1) (L30 days) on the moneyline

The Diamondbacks are 50% (1-1) (L30 days) on the moneyline as a home fav

The Diamondbacks are 100% (1-0-1) (L30 days) to the over

The Diamondbacks are 100% (1-0-1) (L30 days) to the over as a home fav

Cubs (Away)

The Cubs are 25% (1-3) on the moneyline

The Cubs are 50% (1-1) on the moneyline as an away dog

The Cubs are 66.7% (2-1-1) to the over

The Cubs are 100% (1-0-1) to the over as an away dog

The Cubs are 25% (1-3) (L30 days) on the moneyline

The Cubs are 50% (1-1) (L30 days) on the moneyline as an away dog

The Cubs are 66.7% (2-1-1) (L30 days) to the over

The Cubs are 100% (1-0-1) (L30 days) to the over as an away dog

Past Matchups (Last 7) Follow global filters

Date	Team Starter	Runs		Opponent Starter	Opp Runs	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
03/27/25 2025	Diamondbacks Zac Gallen (R)	6	vs.	Cubs Justin Steele (L)	10	-126	8.5	+4	O 16 +7.5
07/21/24 2024	Diamondbacks Brandon Pfaadt (R)	1	@	Cubs Shota Imanaga (L)	2 F/10	+110	7.0	+1	U 3 -4.0
07/20/24 2024	Diamondbacks Zac Gallen (R)	3	@	Cubs Kyle Hendricks (R)	0	-134	8.5	-3	U 3 -5.5
07/19/24 2024	Diamondbacks Ryne Nelson (R)	5	@	Cubs Justin Steele (L)	2	+132	8.0	-3	U 7 -1.0
04/17/24 2024	Diamondbacks Brandon Pfaadt (R)	3	vs.	Cubs Jordan Wicks (L)	5	-130	9.0	+2	U 8 -1.0
04/16/24 2024	Diamondbacks Tommy Henry (L)	12	vs.	Cubs Kyle Hendricks (R)	11 F/10	-120	10.0	-1	O 23 +13.0
04/15/24 2024	Diamondbacks Merrill Kelly (R)	2	vs.	Cubs Ben Brown (R)	3 F/11	-156	8.5	+1	U 5 -3.5

Diamondbacks as Home (4 games)		5.8	-	-	7.3	-132	9.0	+1.5	O 13.0 +4.0

All Games Avg (7 games)		4.6	-	-	4.7	-116	8.5	+0.1	O 9.3 +0.8

MLB Matchups: Predictions, Odds & Betting Trends

Final: 1 – 8 Chicago Cubs @ Arizona Diamondbacks window.TMB_PAGE_CONTEXT = { page: 'matchup', sport: "mlb", away_team: "Chicago Cubs", home_team: "Arizona Diamondbacks", game_date: "2025-03-28" };

Odds Full MLB odds board

Injury Report CHCNo report ARINo report

Notes

Cubs

Diamondbacks

Baller System(s)

Cubs

Diamondbacks

Filters

Schedules

Cubs Schedule Follow global filters

Diamondbacks Schedule Follow global filters

Team Comparison Stats Loading...

Records

Pitch Mix vs. Bats

Starting Pitchers Recent Performance

Bullpen Usage (Last 3 Days)

Notable Trends

View All Records

Diamondbacks (Home)

Cubs (Away)

Past Matchups (Last 7) Follow global filters

Final: 1 – 8
Chicago Cubs @ Arizona Diamondbacks