Updated: 06/25/26 10:15 p.m.

12:10 p.m.
Kansas City Royals @ Tampa Bay Rays

Royals: 34-47 (42.0%) , Seth Lugo (R): 7-8 (46.7%)

Rays: 44-33 (57.1%) , Casey Legumina (R): 1-0 (100.0%)

Line: -147

Total: 8

Open: -143

Open: 8

Notes

Royals

Baller System(s)

Play under when offense performs poorly vs. bullpen in previous matchup

Rays

Situational Factor(s)

Home stand (7th consecutive game at home or more)

Baller Index Our Exclusive MLB Baller Index is a dynamic tool that adapts to MLB's latest trends, dynamically adjusting each team’s Starting Pitcher, Bullpen, and Team Batting ratings based on current performances and historical data. It factors in current form—reflecting recent player and team performances—and accounts for positive or negative regression to balance out extreme fluctuations. To find an edge, compare our Matchup Rating System with the game line to identify discrepancies that could signal a betting opportunity. Regular season only.

Royals

S. Lugo	1/4
Bullpen:	1/3
Team Batting:	2/3
Matchup:	-2 Est. fair odds: +125 to +141 Implied win prob: 41.49% to 44.44%

Rays

C. Legumina	2/4
Bullpen:	3/3
Team Batting:	1/3
Matchup:	+2 Est. fair odds: -125 to -141 Implied win prob: 55.56% to 58.51%

Regression Analysis The Regression Analysis section is a strictly rule-based analysis designed to simplify and interpret what the data indicates. This section identifies potential regression signals and organizes them into a clear breakdown for each side. The goal isn't to tell you what to bet—it's to provide context.

By translating the data into plain language, this can help you understand how regression and matchup factors interact. These signals highlight tendencies, not guarantees, and are most effective when used alongside the rest of the matchup page for full context.

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Team Comparison Stats Loading...

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Records

Starting Pitchers Recent Performance

Seth Lugo Last 5 Starts

	H	A	Line	Total	IP	K	BB	Hits	HR	ER	Runs	Opp Starter
6/19	[ 6 ]	[ 5 ]	+102	9	6	0	3	5	0	1	2	Michael McGreevy (R)
6/10	[ 4 ]	[ 6 ]	-101	10	3.33	2	1	3	0	1	1	MacKenzie Gore (L)
6/4	[ 6 ]	[ 8 ]	-116	9	5	4	1	6	3	5	5	Andrew Morris (R)
5/30	[ 7 ]	[ 6 ]	+100	8	6	6	0	6	1	1	3	Kumar Rocker (R)
5/24	[ 8 ]	[ 6 ]	+104	8	6.33	3	2	6	1	3	3	Bryan Woo (R)
Averages:					5.33	3	1.4	5.2	1	2.2	2.8

Casey Legumina Last 5 Starts

	H	A	Line	Total	IP	K	BB	Hits	HR	ER	Runs	Opp Starter
6/14	[ 3 ]	[ 8 ]	-122	9	1.67	1	0	2	0	1	1	Grayson Rodriguez (R)
5/20	[ 1 ]	[ 0 ]	-180	8.5	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	Adrian Houser (R)
Averages:					1.33	1	0.5	1.5	0	0.5	0.5

Bullpen Usage (Last 3 Days)

KCR Bullpen — Last 3 Days

Pitcher	6/22	6/23	6/24	App	IP	K	BB	H	ER
Beck Way ⚠	·	1.0	1.0	2	2.0	0	1	2	1
Alex Lange	1.0	·	·	1	1.0	1	0	0	0
Connor Seabold	·	1.0	·	1	1.0	2	1	4	3
Daniel Lynch IV	·	·	1.0	1	1.0	0	0	0	0
John Schreiber	1.0	·	·	1	1.0	2	1	0	0
Lucas Erceg	·	·	1.0	1	1.0	1	0	1	0
Matt Strahm	·	1.0	·	1	1.0	1	1	0	0
Steven Cruz	·	1.0	·	1	1.0	0	0	1	0
Team Totals (8 arms used):				9	9.0	7	4	8	4

⚠ = pitched on consecutive days within window (fatigue signal).

TBR Bullpen — Last 3 Days

Pitcher	6/22	6/23	6/24	App	IP	K	BB	H	ER
Cole Sulser	1.0	·	1.0	2	2.0	4	0	1	0
Steven Matz	·	2.0	·	1	2.0	2	0	6	5
Ben Williamson	·	1.0	·	1	1.0	0	0	2	1
Bryan Baker	·	·	1.0	1	1.0	2	0	1	1
Cam Booser	1.0	·	·	1	1.0	0	0	0	0
Craig Kimbrel	1.0	·	·	1	1.0	0	0	0	0
Garrett Cleavinger	·	·	1.0	1	1.0	1	0	0	0
Kevin Kelly	·	·	1.0	1	1.0	0	0	0	0
Team Totals (8 arms used):				9	10.0	9	0	10	7

Schedules

Royals Schedule

Date	Season	Team Starter	Runs	Site	Opponent Starter	Opp Runs	Line	Total
06/27/26	2026	Royals Michael Wacha (R)	-	away	White Sox Davis Martin (R)	-	-	-
06/26/26	2026	Royals TBD	-	away	White Sox TBD	-	-	-
06/25/26	2026	Royals Seth Lugo (R)	-	away	Rays Casey Legumina (R)	-	+125	8.0
06/24/26	2026	Royals Noah Cameron (L)	3	away	Rays Griffin Jax (R)	5	+121	7.5
06/23/26	2026	Royals Luinder Avila (R)	12	away	Rays Shane McClanahan (L)	5	+159	7.5
06/22/26	2026	Royals Michael Wacha (R)	2	away	Rays Drew Rasmussen (R)	1	+157	7.5
06/21/26	2026	Royals Stephen Kolek (R)	10	home	Cardinals Dustin May (R)	12	+108	9.0
06/19/26	2026	Royals Seth Lugo (R)	6	home	Cardinals Michael McGreevy (R)	5	+102	9.0
06/18/26	2026	Royals Noah Cameron (L)	14	home	Cardinals Matthew Liberatore (L)	6	-114	9.0
06/17/26	2026	Royals Luinder Avila (R)	6	away	Nationals Zack Littell (R)	2	+111	10.5
06/16/26	2026	Royals Michael Wacha (R)	4	away	Nationals Foster Griffin (L)	6	+118	8.5
06/15/26	2026	Royals Mitch Spence (R)	3	away	Nationals Andrew Alvarez (L)	7	+115	9.5
06/14/26	2026	Royals Stephen Kolek (R)	4	home	Astros Spencer Arrighetti (R)	0	-119	8.5
Away Games Avg (6 games)			5.0	-	-	4.3	+130	8.5
All Games Avg (10 games)			6.4	-	-	4.9	+76	8.7

Rays Schedule

Date	Season	Team Starter	Runs	Site	Opponent Starter	Opp Runs	Line	Total
06/27/26	2026	Rays TBD	-	home	Diamondbacks TBD	-	-	-
06/26/26	2026	Rays Nick Martinez (R)	-	home	Diamondbacks TBD	-	-	-
06/25/26	2026	Rays Casey Legumina (R)	-	home	Royals Seth Lugo (R)	-	-150	8.0
06/24/26	2026	Rays Griffin Jax (R)	5	home	Royals Noah Cameron (L)	3	-145	7.5
06/23/26	2026	Rays Shane McClanahan (L)	5	home	Royals Luinder Avila (R)	12	-191	7.5
06/22/26	2026	Rays Drew Rasmussen (R)	1	home	Royals Michael Wacha (R)	2	-189	7.5
06/21/26	2026	Rays Nick Martinez (R)	4	home	Nationals Andrew Alvarez (L)	3	-133	8.5
06/20/26	2026	Rays Ian Seymour (L)	3	home	Nationals Cade Cavalli (R)	4	-125	8.0
06/19/26	2026	Rays Griffin Jax (R)	5	home	Nationals PJ Poulin (L)	2	-159	8.5
06/17/26	2026	Rays Shane McClanahan (L)	4	away	Dodgers Shohei Ohtani (R)	5	+134	7.0
06/16/26	2026	Rays Drew Rasmussen (R)	0	away	Dodgers Justin Wrobleski (L)	1	+124	8.0
06/15/26	2026	Rays Nick Martinez (R)	3	away	Dodgers Eric Lauer (L)	4	+157	9.5
06/14/26	2026	Rays Casey Legumina (R)	8	away	Angels Grayson Rodriguez (R)	3	-122	9.0
Home Games Avg (6 games)			3.8	-	-	4.3	-157	7.9
All Games Avg (10 games)			3.8	-	-	3.9	-65	8.1

Notable Trends

No notable trends identified for this matchup.

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Rays (Home)

The Rays are 57.1% (44-33) on the moneyline

The Rays are 65.6% (21-11) on the moneyline as a home fav

The Rays are 47.9% (35-38-4) to the over/under

The Rays are 48.3% (14-15-3) to the over/under as a home fav

The Rays are 38.5% (10-16) (L30 days) on the moneyline

The Rays are 46.2% (6-7) (L30 days) on the moneyline as a home fav

The Rays are 40% (10-15-1) (L30 days) to the over/under

The Rays are 58.3% (7-5-1) (L30 days) to the over/under as a home fav

Royals (Away)

The Royals are 42% (34-47) on the moneyline

The Royals are 38.7% (12-19) on the moneyline as an away dog

The Royals are 48.8% (39-41-1) to the over/under

The Royals are 35.5% (11-20) to the over/under as an away dog

The Royals are 44.4% (12-15) (L30 days) on the moneyline

The Royals are 42.9% (6-8) (L30 days) on the moneyline as an away dog

The Royals are 61.5% (16-10-1) (L30 days) to the over/under

The Royals are 57.1% (8-6) (L30 days) to the over/under as an away dog

Past Matchups (Last 7)

Date	Season	Team Starter	Runs	Site	Opponent Starter	Opp Runs	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
06/24/26	2026	Rays Griffin Jax (R)	5	Home	Royals Noah Cameron (L)	3	-145	7.5	-2	8
06/23/26	2026	Rays Shane McClanahan (L)	5	Home	Royals Luinder Avila (R)	12	-191	7.5	+7	17
06/22/26	2026	Rays Drew Rasmussen (R)	1	Home	Royals Michael Wacha (R)	2	-189	7.5	+1	3
06/26/25	2025	Rays Shane Baz (R)	4	Away	Royals Michael Lorenzen (R)	0	-106	10.0	-4	4
06/25/25	2025	Rays Drew Rasmussen (R)	3	Away	Royals Michael Wacha (R)	0	-112	9.0	-3	3
06/24/25	2025	Rays Taj Bradley (R)	5	Away	Royals Kris Bubic (L)	1	+142	8.5	-4	6
05/01/25	2025	Rays Shane Baz (R)	2	Home	Royals Seth Lugo (R)	8	-154	8.5	+6	10
Rays as Home (4 games)			3.3	-	-	6.3	-169.8	7.8	+3.0	9.5
All Games Avg (7 games)			3.6	-	-	3.7	-107.9	8.4	+0.1	7.3

12:10 p.m. Kansas City Royals @ Tampa Bay Rays

Notes

Royals

Baller System(s)

Rays

Situational Factor(s)

Royals

Rays

Team Comparison Stats Loading...

Records

Starting Pitchers Recent Performance

Bullpen Usage (Last 3 Days)

Schedules

Royals Schedule

Rays Schedule

Notable Trends

View All Records

Rays (Home)

Royals (Away)

Past Matchups (Last 7)

12:10 p.m.
Kansas City Royals @ Tampa Bay Rays