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Updated: 04/04/26 6:07 p.m.

3:00 p.m.
Washington Wizards @ Miami Heat

Wizards: 17-59 (22.4%)

Heat: 40-37 (51.9%)

Line: -18.5

Total: 248.0

Open: -16.0

Open: 245.5

Odds courtesy of OddsLogic

Injury Report Apr 4, 6:30 PM ET WAS7 Out MIA3 Out

WAS

Player	Status	Reason
Alex Sarr	Out	Injury/Illness-LeftBigToe;Capsulitis
Anthony Davis	Out	Injury/Illness-LeftFinger;Sprain
Cam Whitmore	Out	Injury/Illness-RightShoulder;Deep VeinThrombosis
D'Angelo Russell	Out	NotWithTeam
Kyshawn George	Out	Injury/Illness-LeftElbow;Sprain
Trae Young	Out	Injury/Illness-LowBack;Pain;Right QuadContusion
Tristan Vukcevic	Out	Injury/Illness-RightKnee;Contusion
Bilal Coulibaly	Available	Injury/Illness-RightRetrocalcaneal; Bursitis
Justin Champagnie	Available	Injury/Illness-RightKnee;Contusion
Tre Johnson	Available	Injury/Illness-RightFoot;Sprain

MIA

Player	Status	Reason
Norman Powell	Out	ReturntoCompetition Reconditioning
Terry Rozier	Out	NotWithTeam
Tyler Herro	Out	PersonalReasons
Andrew Wiggins	Available	Injury/Illness-LeftBigToe; Sesamoiditis

Notes

Wizards

Situational Factor(s)

1st game of a back-to-back

Double digit, in-season revenge

In-season revenge

Well-rested (two or more days of rest)

Heat

Situational Factor(s)

Well-rested (two or more days of rest)

Baller Index Our Exclusive nba Baller Index is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions essentially look for teams that have over- or under-performed, in terms of points scored, relative to what would be expected based on their underlying metrics and who might be in for regression. While it does not factor in injuries, situational spots, or historic matchups into account, it can be a good place to start when thinking about a particular matchup.

Spread Recommendation

Heat

54.58% probability

Total Recommendation

No Play

View All Algorithms

Notable Trends

The Heat are 80% (12-3) (L30 days) to the over/under

The Heat are 77.8% (7-2) (L30 days) to the over/under at home

The Heat are 83.3% (5-1) (L30 days) to the over/under as a fav

The Heat are 80% (4-1) (L30 days) to the over/under as a home fav

The Wizards are 71.4% (10-4) (L30 days) to the over/under as a dog

View All Records

Heat (Home)

The Heat are 56.4% (44-34-1) against the spread

The Heat are 55% (22-18) against the spread at home

The Heat are 52.5% (21-19) against the spread as a fav

The Heat are 50% (14-14) against the spread as a home fav

The Heat are 54.4% (43-36) to the over/under

The Heat are 55% (22-18) to the over/under at home

The Heat are 47.5% (19-21) to the over/under as a fav

The Heat are 50% (14-14) to the over/under as a home fav

The Heat are 53.3% (8-7) (L30 days) against the spread

The Heat are 55.6% (5-4) (L30 days) against the spread at home

The Heat are 50% (3-3) (L30 days) against the spread as a fav

The Heat are 60% (3-2) (L30 days) against the spread as a home fav

The Heat are 80% (12-3) (L30 days) to the over/under

The Heat are 77.8% (7-2) (L30 days) to the over/under at home

The Heat are 83.3% (5-1) (L30 days) to the over/under as a fav

The Heat are 80% (4-1) (L30 days) to the over/under as a home fav

Wizards (Away)

The Wizards are 42.1% (32-44) against the spread

The Wizards are 36.8% (14-24) against the spread away

The Wizards are 42.3% (30-41) against the spread as a dog

The Wizards are 36.8% (14-24) against the spread as an away dog

The Wizards are 56.6% (43-33) to the over/under

The Wizards are 55.3% (21-17) to the over/under away

The Wizards are 56.3% (40-31) to the over/under as a dog

The Wizards are 55.3% (21-17) to the over/under as an away dog

The Wizards are 40% (6-9) (L30 days) against the spread

The Wizards are 44.4% (4-5) (L30 days) against the spread away

The Wizards are 42.9% (6-8) (L30 days) against the spread as a dog

The Wizards are 44.4% (4-5) (L30 days) against the spread as an away dog

The Wizards are 66.7% (10-5) (L30 days) to the over/under

The Wizards are 66.7% (6-3) (L30 days) to the over/under away

The Wizards are 71.4% (10-4) (L30 days) to the over/under as a dog

The Wizards are 66.7% (6-3) (L30 days) to the over/under as an away dog

Past Matchups (Last 2 Seasons, Max 10)

Date	Season	Team	Pts	Site	Opponent	Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
03/10/26	2025	Heat	150	Home	Wizards	129	-15.5	236.5	-21	279
02/08/26	2025	Heat	132	Away	Wizards	101	-13.5	235.5	-31	233
04/13/25	2024	Heat	118	Home	Wizards	119	-8.5	215.5	+1	237
03/31/25	2024	Heat	120	Away	Wizards	94	-9.5	215.0	-26	214
03/03/25	2024	Heat	106	Home	Wizards	90	-8.5	217.5	-16	196
11/02/24	2024	Heat	118	Away	Wizards	98	-10.0	224.5	-20	216
03/31/24	2023	Heat	119	Away	Wizards	107	-11.0	217.0	-12	226
03/10/24	2023	Heat	108	Home	Wizards	110	-11.5	227.5	+2	218
02/02/24	2023	Heat	110	Away	Wizards	102	-8.5	227.5	-8	212
11/03/23	2023	Heat	121	Home	Wizards	114	-9.0	224.5	-7	235
Heat as Home (5 games)			120.6	-	-	112.4	-10.6	224.3	-8.2	233.0
All Games Avg (10 games)			120.2	-	-	106.4	-10.6	224.1	-13.8	226.6

Schedules

Wizards Schedule

Date	Season	Team	Points	Site	Opponent	Opp Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
04/07/26	2025	Wizards	-	home	Bulls	-	-	-	-	-
04/05/26	2025	Wizards	-	away	Nets	-	+4.5	230.5	-	-
04/04/26	2025	Wizards	-	away	Heat	-	+18.5	248.0	-	-
04/01/26	2025	Wizards	131	home	76ers	153	+14.5	239.0	+22	284
03/30/26	2025	Wizards	101	away	Lakers	120	+15.5	235.5	+19	221
03/29/26	2025	Wizards	88	away	Trail Blazers	123	+16.5	235.5	+35	211
03/27/26	2025	Wizards	126	away	Warriors	131	+12.0	230.5	+5	257
03/25/26	2025	Wizards	133	away	Jazz	110	+3.0	238.5	-23	243
03/22/26	2025	Wizards	113	away	Knicks	145	+22.5	229.0	+32	258
03/21/26	2025	Wizards	111	home	Thunder	132	+21.5	231.0	+21	243
03/19/26	2025	Wizards	95	home	Pistons	117	+14.5	231.5	+22	212
03/17/26	2025	Wizards	117	home	Pistons	130	+18.5	233.5	+13	247
03/16/26	2025	Wizards	117	home	Warriors	125	+7.5	234.5	+8	242
Away Games Avg (5 games)			112.2	-	-	125.8	+13.9	233.8	+13.6	238.0
All Games Avg (10 games)			113.2	-	-	128.6	+14.6	233.9	+15.4	241.8

Heat Schedule

Date	Season	Team	Points	Site	Opponent	Opp Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
04/09/26	2025	Heat	-	away	Raptors	-	-	-	-	-
04/07/26	2025	Heat	-	away	Raptors	-	-	-	-	-
04/04/26	2025	Heat	-	home	Wizards	-	-18.5	248.0	-	-
04/01/26	2025	Heat	129	home	Celtics	147	+4.5	230.0	+18	276
03/30/26	2025	Heat	119	home	76ers	109	+2.5	242.5	-10	228
03/29/26	2025	Heat	118	away	Pacers	135	-8.5	245.5	+17	253
03/27/26	2025	Heat	128	away	Cavaliers	149	+5.5	240.5	+21	277
03/25/26	2025	Heat	120	away	Cavaliers	103	+2.5	243.0	-17	223
03/23/26	2025	Heat	111	home	Spurs	136	+3.5	244.5	+25	247
03/21/26	2025	Heat	122	away	Rockets	123	+3.0	228.5	+1	245
03/19/26	2025	Heat	126	home	Lakers	134	-3.5	242.5	+8	260
03/17/26	2025	Heat	106	away	Hornets	136	+5.0	237.0	+30	242
03/14/26	2025	Heat	117	home	Magic	121	-4.5	236.5	+4	238
Home Games Avg (5 games)			120.4	-	-	129.4	+0.5	239.2	+9.0	249.8
All Games Avg (10 games)			119.6	-	-	129.3	+1.0	239.1	+9.7	248.9

Team Comparison Stats Click to load

3:00 p.m.
San Antonio Spurs @ Denver Nuggets

Spurs: 59-18 (76.6%)

Nuggets: 49-28 (63.6%)

Line: -1.0

Total: 242.5

Open: +1.0

Open: 241.5

Odds courtesy of OddsLogic

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7:00 p.m.
Detroit Pistons @ Philadelphia 76ers

Pistons: 55-21 (72.4%)

76ers: 43-34 (55.8%)

Line: +3.5

Total: 226.0

Open: +3.5

Open: 225.5

Odds courtesy of OddsLogic

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Algorithm	Recommendation
Broad Feature Linear regression predicting spread, 20 features. Test RÂ²: 0.483, MAE: 11.20. Medium Confidence: 78-89 (46.7%)	Heat
RMSE/MAE Linear model, 40 features. Test R2: -0.041, MAE: 9.94. Skip \|line\|>10.0 or \|edge\|>3.5. High Confidence: 12-6 (66.7%) Medium Confidence: 52-56-1 (48.1%)	Neutral
SOS Adjusted Regression Ratio + ridge adjusted ratings. 16 rolling L10 stats, 9 context features, 2 spread features. All z-scored differentials. High Confidence: 17-8-2 (68%) Medium Confidence: 8-8 (50%)	Neutral
Cover Summary	Heat
Pace Focused Pace ratings + free throw efficiency. High Confidence: 9-6 (60%) Medium Confidence: 150-140 (51.7%)	Neutral
Basic Stats + Schedule Basic team stat profiles and schedule/travel/rest. High Confidence: 107-81-1 (56.9%) Medium Confidence: 82-75-1 (52.2%)	Neutral
Total Summary	No Bet
OVERALL	Heat \| No Total Edge

3:00 p.m. Washington Wizards @ Miami Heat

Injury Report Apr 4, 6:30 PM ET WAS7 Out MIA3 Out

Notes

Wizards

Situational Factor(s)

Heat

Situational Factor(s)

Spread Recommendation

Total Recommendation

View All Algorithms

Algorithm Breakdown

Notable Trends

View All Records

Heat (Home)

Wizards (Away)

Past Matchups (Last 2 Seasons, Max 10)

Schedules

Wizards Schedule

Heat Schedule

Team Comparison Stats Click to load

3:00 p.m. San Antonio Spurs @ Denver Nuggets

7:00 p.m. Detroit Pistons @ Philadelphia 76ers

3:00 p.m.
Washington Wizards @ Miami Heat

3:00 p.m.
San Antonio Spurs @ Denver Nuggets

7:00 p.m.
Detroit Pistons @ Philadelphia 76ers