Updated: 07/16/26 8:30 p.m.

7:10 p.m.
New York Mets @ Philadelphia Phillies

Mets: 41-60 (40.6%) , Christian Scott (R): 10-3 (76.9%)

Phillies: 56-44 (56.0%) , Aaron Nola (R): 9-10 (47.4%)

Line: -127

Total: 9.5

Open: -136

Open: 10

Notes

Mets

Situational Factor(s)

Game off demoralizing loss (led after 8th)

Game off extra innings

Phillies

Situational Factor(s)

Returning home off 9+ game road trip

Baller Index Our Exclusive MLB Baller Index is a dynamic tool that adapts to MLB's latest trends, dynamically adjusting each team’s Starting Pitcher, Bullpen, and Team Batting ratings based on current performances and historical data. It factors in current form—reflecting recent player and team performances—and accounts for positive or negative regression to balance out extreme fluctuations. To find an edge, compare our Matchup Rating System with the game line to identify discrepancies that could signal a betting opportunity. Regular season only.

Mets

C. Scott	2/4
Bullpen:	3/3
Team Batting:	1/3
Matchup:	+1 Est. fair odds: -111 to -124 Implied win prob: 52.61% to 55.36%

Phillies

A. Nola	2/4
Bullpen:	1/3
Team Batting:	2/3
Matchup:	-1 Est. fair odds: +111 to +124 Implied win prob: 44.64% to 47.39%

Regression Analysis The Regression Analysis section is a strictly rule-based analysis designed to simplify and interpret what the data indicates. This section identifies potential regression signals and organizes them into a clear breakdown for each side. The goal isn't to tell you what to bet—it's to provide context.

By translating the data into plain language, this can help you understand how regression and matchup factors interact. These signals highlight tendencies, not guarantees, and are most effective when used alongside the rest of the matchup page for full context.

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Team Comparison Stats Loading...

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Records

Starting Pitchers Recent Performance

Christian Scott Last 5 Starts

	H	A	Line	Total	IP	K	BB	Hits	HR	ER	Runs	Opp Starter
7/8	[ 6 ]	[ 2 ]	-195	9.5	5	5	1	3	0	0	0	Steven Cruz (R)
7/3	[ 5 ]	[ 3 ]	-106	9	4	7	4	2	2	3	3	Grant Holmes (R)
6/27	[ 6 ]	[ 2 ]	-131	9	4.33	6	2	3	1	2	2	Tim Mayza (L)
6/11	[ 5 ]	[ 4 ]	-151	9	4.67	6	1	7	3	4	4	Hunter Dobbins (R)
6/5	[ 0 ]	[ 5 ]	+109	7	5.67	3	2	3	0	0	0	Michael King (R)
Averages:					4.73	5.4	2	3.6	1.2	1.8	1.8

Aaron Nola Last 5 Starts

	H	A	Line	Total	IP	K	BB	Hits	HR	ER	Runs	Opp Starter
7/10	[ 10 ]	[ 2 ]	+100	9	5	8	2	3	1	2	2	Jack Flaherty (R)
7/5	[ 5 ]	[ 2 ]	-135	10	7	7	0	7	0	3	3	Luinder Avila (R)
6/29	[ 7 ]	[ 11 ]	-112	9	4.33	5	2	8	2	7	8	Braxton Ashcraft (R)
6/24	[ 4 ]	[ 5 ]	-125	9.5	5	5	2	3	2	2	2	Carson Palmquist (L)
6/18	[ 4 ]	[ 6 ]	-123	10	5	6	1	7	2	2	3	Sean Manaea (L)
Averages:					5.27	6.2	1.4	5.6	1.4	3.2	3.6

Bullpen Usage (Last 3 Days)

Mets Bullpen — Last 3 Days

No relief appearances in the previous 3 day window (off days, postponements, or no games yet).

Phillies Bullpen — Last 3 Days

No relief appearances in the previous 3 day window (off days, postponements, or no games yet).

Schedules

Mets Schedule

Date	Season	Team Starter	Runs	Site	Opponent Starter	Opp Runs	Line	Total
07/19/26	2026	Mets	-	away	Phillies	-	-	-
07/18/26	2026	Mets Sean Manaea (L)	-	away	Phillies Jesus Luzardo (L)	-	-	-
07/16/26	2026	Mets Christian Scott (R)	-	away	Phillies Aaron Nola (R)	-	+109	9.5
07/12/26	2026	Mets Zach Thornton (L)	2	home	Red Sox Payton Tolle (L)	3	-107	8.0
07/11/26	2026	Mets Freddy Peralta (R)	0	home	Red Sox Eduardo Rivera (L)	4	-142	8.0
07/10/26	2026	Mets Nolan McLean (R)	2	home	Red Sox Sonny Gray (R)	6	-146	7.5
07/09/26	2026	Mets Sean Manaea (L)	7	home	Royals Michael Wacha (R)	3	-142	9.0
07/08/26	2026	Mets Christian Scott (R)	6	home	Royals Steven Cruz (R)	2	-195	9.5
07/07/26	2026	Mets Cionel Perez (L)	0	home	Royals Seth Lugo (R)	0	-	-
07/07/26	2026	Mets Cionel Perez (L)	12	home	Royals Seth Lugo (R)	16	-	-
07/06/26	2026	Mets Freddy Peralta (R)	7	away	Braves Reynaldo Lopez (R)	6	+109	9.0
07/05/26	2026	Mets Nolan McLean (R)	10	away	Braves Martin Perez (L)	9	-112	9.0
07/04/26	2026	Mets Sean Manaea (L)	3	away	Braves Chris Sale (L)	14	+159	8.0
Away Games Avg (3 games)			6.7	-	-	9.7	+52	8.7
All Games Avg (10 games)			4.9	-	-	6.3	-58	6.8

Phillies Schedule

Date	Season	Team Starter	Runs	Site	Opponent Starter	Opp Runs	Line	Total
07/19/26	2026	Phillies	-	home	Mets	-	-	-
07/18/26	2026	Phillies Jesus Luzardo (L)	-	home	Mets Sean Manaea (L)	-	-	-
07/16/26	2026	Phillies Aaron Nola (R)	-	home	Mets Christian Scott (R)	-	-127	9.5
07/12/26	2026	Phillies Zack Wheeler (R)	5	away	Tigers Tarik Skubal (L)	0	+113	7.0
07/11/26	2026	Phillies Cristopher Sanchez (L)	4	away	Tigers Casey Mize (R)	2	-142	8.0
07/10/26	2026	Phillies Aaron Nola (R)	2	away	Tigers Jack Flaherty (R)	10	+100	9.0
07/09/26	2026	Phillies Jesus Luzardo (L)	1	away	Reds Brady Singer (R)	0	-176	9.5
07/08/26	2026	Phillies Alan Rangel (R)	5	away	Reds Chase Burns (R)	11	+120	8.5
07/07/26	2026	Phillies Zack Wheeler (R)	0	away	Reds Andrew Abbott (L)	0	-	-
07/07/26	2026	Phillies Zack Wheeler (R)	4	away	Reds Andrew Abbott (L)	1	-	-
07/06/26	2026	Phillies Cristopher Sanchez (L)	1	away	Royals Noah Cameron (L)	15	-220	8.5
07/05/26	2026	Phillies Aaron Nola (R)	2	away	Royals Luinder Avila (R)	5	-135	10.0
07/04/26	2026	Phillies Jesus Luzardo (L)	6	away	Royals Michael Wacha (R)	1	-159	9.0
All Games Avg (10 games)			3.0	-	-	4.5	-50	7.0

Notable Trends

The Phillies are 71.4% (5-2-2) (L30 days) to the over/under as a home fav

The Mets are 25% (6-18) on the moneyline as an away dog

The Mets are 25% (2-6) (L30 days) on the moneyline as an away dog

View All Records

Phillies (Home)

The Phillies are 56% (56-44) on the moneyline

The Phillies are 59.5% (25-17) on the moneyline as a home fav

The Phillies are 44.6% (41-51-5) to the over/under

The Phillies are 56.4% (22-17-3) to the over/under as a home fav

The Phillies are 59.3% (16-11) (L30 days) on the moneyline

The Phillies are 55.6% (5-4) (L30 days) on the moneyline as a home fav

The Phillies are 47.8% (11-12-2) (L30 days) to the over/under

The Phillies are 71.4% (5-2-2) (L30 days) to the over/under as a home fav

Mets (Away)

The Mets are 40.6% (41-60) on the moneyline

The Mets are 25% (6-18) on the moneyline as an away dog

The Mets are 50.6% (45-44-8) to the over/under

The Mets are 47.6% (10-11-3) to the over/under as an away dog

The Mets are 32.1% (9-19) (L30 days) on the moneyline

The Mets are 25% (2-6) (L30 days) on the moneyline as an away dog

The Mets are 56.5% (13-10-2) (L30 days) to the over/under

The Mets are 66.7% (4-2-2) (L30 days) to the over/under as an away dog

Past Matchups (Last 7)

Date	Season	Team Starter	Runs	Site	Opponent Starter	Opp Runs	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
06/28/26	2026	Phillies Jesus Luzardo (L)	5	Away	Mets Cionel Perez (L)	4	-136	8.5	-1	9
06/27/26	2026	Phillies Tim Mayza (L)	2	Away	Mets Christian Scott (R)	6	+131	9.0	+4	8
06/26/26	2026	Phillies Zack Wheeler (R)	2	Away	Mets Zach Thornton (L)	1	-139	8.5	-1	3
06/21/26	2026	Phillies Zack Wheeler (R)	6	Home	Mets David Peterson (L)	2	-188	8.0	-4	8
06/20/26	2026	Phillies Cristopher Sanchez (L)	15	Home	Mets Freddy Peralta (R)	3	-197	7.5	-12	18
06/18/26	2026	Phillies Aaron Nola (R)	4	Home	Mets Sean Manaea (L)	6	-123	10.0	+2	10
09/11/25	2025	Phillies Jesus Luzardo (L)	6	Home	Mets David Peterson (L)	4	-136	8.5	-2	10
Phillies as Home (4 games)			7.8	-	-	3.8	-161.0	8.5	-4.0	11.5
All Games Avg (7 games)			5.7	-	-	3.7	-112.6	8.6	-2.0	9.4

7:10 p.m. New York Mets @ Philadelphia Phillies

Notes

Mets

Situational Factor(s)

Phillies

Situational Factor(s)

Mets

Phillies

Team Comparison Stats Loading...

Records

Starting Pitchers Recent Performance

Bullpen Usage (Last 3 Days)

Schedules

Mets Schedule

Phillies Schedule

Notable Trends

View All Records

Phillies (Home)

Mets (Away)

Past Matchups (Last 7)

7:10 p.m.
New York Mets @ Philadelphia Phillies