Tag: playoffs

Lynx Poised to Pounce in Rd 1, Game 1 of WNBA Playoffs

Posted on by Katagiri


Click here for the WNBA Matchup Page for this game


Date: Sunday, September 22, 2024
Matchup: Phoenix Mercury at Minnesota Lynx
Time: TBA


The Minnesota Lynx are set to open the first round of the WNBA playoffs against the Phoenix Mercury on September 22, 2024. At the time of writing (with one meaningless game left for each team) the Lynx are locked into the 2-seed with a 30-9 record (77%) and the Mercury are locked into the 7-seed with a 19-20 record (49%). The Lynx had a soft open as 6.5 point favorites, a line that quickly moved to 9 and now sits around 10 at most books, reflecting the early support for the Lynx. The total sits at 159.

The Lynx have been a dominant team all season long, outperforming their pre-season expectations (30 wins with a game to go vs. their pre-season win-total, which was set at 16.5). Many people have likened their style of play to that of the Celtics in the NBA – a team that spreads the floor with good shooting while locking down on the defensive end. Indeed, the Lynx were the most efficient team from beyond the arc this year in the WNBA while ranking second in 3pt% allowed to their opponents – many will refer to this as a “math” challenge for anyone going up against the Lynx. Their offensive rating is 103.8, good for 4th in the league, and the Lynx particularly excelled on the defensive side of the ball, stifling opponents with a league-best 95.1 defensive rating. The Lynx have also thrived at home where they boast a net-rating of +11.2 (vs. +6.9 on the road – still great!).

The Mercury come into the playoffs right around where their pre-season expectations were projected (19 wins with a game to go vs. their pre-season win-total, which was set at 18.5). While the Mercury have played well enough to coast into the 7th seed without any doubts down the stretch, they have been far from dominant this season. As their slightly sub-.500 record would suggest, they have struggled with consistency. They are bottom-half in both offensive and defensive efficiency, and while they play fine enough at home (-1 net-rating), they have had particular struggles on the road where their net-rating drops to -7.9.

This game sets up to be a clash between a team in the Lynx that plays hyper-efficiently on both sides of the ball, and a team that is almost the opposite, inefficient in both areas. The Mercury do have veteran leadership in Diana Taurasi (15.1 ppg) and Brittney Griner (18 ppg), and have benefitted from the addition of scorer Kahleah Copper (21.6 ppg) and guard Natasha Cloud (11.7 ppg, 7 apg). While the talent in their starting lineup was enough to get them to the playoffs, it’s going to be a tough challenge, now, against a young and hungry Lynx squad, lead by Napheesa Collier (20.4 ppg) and Kayla McBride (15 ppg) with a roster that is much more balanced overall.

Although we’re not getting the best of the number, the play is still to take the Lynx -10 as I make a fair number on this game closer to Lynx -13. You could consider a slightly smaller bet on this as backing double-digit favorites in the WNBA is not a profitable angle, but the discrepancy in talent is just too great and I’d be comfortable laying .5 units at the current price.

Kyrie’s Return to Boston: Key Betting Insights for the 2024 NBA Finals

Posted on by Austin Wang

Kyrie Irving #11 of the Dallas Mavericks drives against Derrick White at the TD Garden on March 1, 2024. (BRIAN FLUHARTY / GETTY IMAGES)

The NBA Finals are here! To no one’s surprise, the Celtics reigned supreme in the Eastern Conference. They’ve benefited from injuries to key players on their opponents’ rosters in each round. Celtics haven’t been fully healthy either – oft-injured big man Kristaps Porzingis missed Rounds 2 and 3. He is expected back in the lineup; however, rust and conditioning could be potential issues.

Hats off to the Dallas Mavericks! While their potential was recognized, many are surprised to see them outlast the Nuggets, Timberwolves, and Thunder. Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving have formed an unstoppable duo, consistently delivering in clutch moments. Mid-season acquisitions P.J. Washington and Daniel Gafford have excelled in their roles, while rookie Dereck Lively made significant contributions, especially in the series against the Thunder.

A lot of juicy narratives are at play. Irving’s short stint with the Celtics (2017-2019) held much promise but ultimately fell short, leading to significant hostility between Irving and the Boston fans. Expect an earful directed at Irving from the Boston faithful at TD Garden. On the other side, Porzingis will face his former team, the Mavericks, where his two-and-a-half season tenure was marred by injuries and chemistry issues.

Here are a few bullet points for each team and a link to the matchup page where you can dive into advanced stats, trends, splits, and situational spots. Sign up for access to this website free until August 1.

1. Boston Celtics vs. 4. Dallas Mavericks

Click here for The Money Baller matchup page for stats, trends, splits, and systems for this matchup.


Boston Celtics

  • The Boston Celtics have demonstrated their strength in the first half throughout the season, boasting an impressive 64-31-1 ATS record in the first half. This trend continued into the playoffs, where they went 7-3 ATS in the first half in the first two rounds, but only 1-3 1H ATS in the Conference Finals against the Pacers.
  • The home team in Game 1 of the NBA Finals has gone 18-3 SU and 17-4 ATS in the history of the KillerSports.com database.
  • Teams playing as home favorites in Game 1 with a rest advantage have historically performed exceptionally well. Data from the KillerSports.com database reveals a strong 61-42 (59%) ATS record (5-2 ATS in these playoffs) for such teams, underscoring the significance of rest and home-court advantage in setting the tone for the series. Specific to the NBA Finals, this trend has gone 8-2 ATS.
  • Favorites playing in Game 1 after a sweep are 23-14-1 ATS. These stats favor the under as well.


Dallas Mavericks

  • The Mavericks have established themselves as road warriors, boasting an impressive 33-16-1 ATS record in road games this season. Their ability to perform well away from home speaks to their resilience and adaptability. They are 7-2 ATS on the road in the postseason.
  • The Mavericks are 27-6 SU and 25-8 ATS when both Doncic and Irving suit up, dating back to March 7, 2024.
  • Unlike the Celtics, the Mavericks are not a strong first-half team. This season, they are 57-41-1 ATS for the full game but only 48-50-1 ATS in the first half.
  • Some interesting stat comparisons to note in these playoffs:

    – The Mavericks rank 2nd in Free Throw Rate, but the Celtics are 1st in Free Throw Rate allowed.

    – The Mavericks’ duo of young big men has propelled them to the 3rd best Offensive Rebounding Percentage in the playoffs, while the Celtics are 1st in Offensive Rebounding Percentage allowed.

    – The Mavericks average the most corner three-point attempts in the postseason. However, the Celtics neutralize this, ranking 1st in both Corner 3 attempts allowed and Corner 3 FG% allowed.

Stats and trends are pointing to the Celtics -6.5 and Celtics 1H -3.5. However, the Mavericks have defied odds throughout the playoffs (especially on the road) and have been red-hot as of late. We are eagerly awaiting this Finals matchup!

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NBA Playoffs 2024 | Conference Finals Preview

Posted on by Austin Wang

The conference semi-finals were nothing short of thrilling and full of surprises! The series between the New York Knicks and Indiana Pacers, as well as the Denver Nuggets and Minnesota Timberwolves, both went to a decisive Game 7. The Oklahoma City Thunder and Dallas Mavericks also delivered an electrifying showdown. Although the Boston Celtics versus Cleveland Cavaliers series lacked excitement, it was largely due to injuries on the Cavaliers’ side.

We witnessed a changing of the guard with the Timberwolves and Pacers, two rising teams that fought hard to advance. Meanwhile, Luka Doncic and the Dallas Mavericks secured their spot in the conference finals for the second time in three seasons.

Kristaps Porzingis still remains sidelined for the Celtics with a calf injury. He is likely missing the first two games of the conference finals but there’s optimism he’ll return sometime during the series.

Similar to the first two rounds, here are 3 bullet points for each team and a link to the matchup page where you can dive into advanced stats, trends, splits, and situational spots. Sign up for access to this website free until August 1.


3. Minnesota Timberwolves vs. 4. Dallas Mavericks

Click here for The Money Baller matchup page for stats, trends, splits, and systems for this matchup.


Minnesota Timberwolves

  • The Wolves are 5-1 SU and ATS on the road in this playoffs.
  • Wolves/Mavericks have gone 7-1-1 to the under in their previous nine matchups (dating back to March 21, 2022), averaging 219.7 points per game.
  • A notable weakness for the Timberwolves this season is their slow starts at home, where they are 16-30 ATS (34.8%) in the first half. On the other hand, the Mavericks are 25-21-1 (54.3%) in the first half on the road.



Dallas Mavericks

  • The Mavericks have established themselves as road warriors, boasting an impressive 30-16-1 ATS record in road games this season. Their ability to perform well away from home speaks to their resilience and adaptability.
  • The Mavericks are ranked 2nd in Offensive Rebounding % in the playoffs; however, the Timberwolves are 3rd in Offensive Rebounding % allowed.
  • Teams playing in Game 1 after a seven-game series (against a team that did not play a seven-game series) are 19-33-1 ATS in the history of the Killer Sports SDQL database. This trend supports a play on the Mavericks in Game 1.


1. Boston Celtics vs. 6. Indiana Pacers

Click here for The Money Baller matchup page for stats, trends, splits, and systems for this matchup.



Boston Celtics

  • The Boston Celtics have demonstrated their strength in the first half throughout the season, boasting an impressive 63-28-1 ATS record in the first half. This trend continued into the playoffs, where they went 7-3 ATS in the first half in the first two rounds, highlighting their ability to start games strong.
  • Teams playing as home favorites in Game 1 with a rest advantage have historically performed exceptionally well. Data from the KillerSports.com database reveals a strong 61-41 (59%) ATS record (5-1 ATS in these playoffs) for such teams, underscoring the significance of rest and home-court advantage in setting the tone for the series.
  • Teams playing in Game 1 after a seven-game series (versus one that did not play a seven-game series) are 19-33-1 ATS in the history of the Killer Sports SDQL database. This trend supports a play on the Celtics in Game 1.



Indiana Pacers

  • The Pacers have defied odds this season, sporting a solid 25-17-2 ATS record as underdogs. Their ability to exceed expectations underscores their resilience and competitive spirit on the court.
  • In their previous 18 games, the Pacers have showcased their offensive firepower, with a 13-5 record to the over. They are 7-1 to the over in their last 8 games as underdogs, highlighting their ability to generate scoring opportunities and capitalize on offensive possessions.
  • Contrary to the Celtics, the Pacers have been a poor first-half team. They have a 46-47-3 ATS record in the first half, compared to 53-42-1 ATS in the full game. They were 18th in Net Rating in the first half and 5th in Net Rating in the second half.

NBA Playoffs | Round 2: Eastern Conference Preview

Posted on by The Money Baller Team

With the Cavaliers surviving a seven-game series battle on Sunday, the matchups have been set for Round 2 in the Eastern Conference.

The first matchup is between the Boston Celtics and the Cleveland Cavaliers. The absence of Kristaps Porzingis leaves the Celtics with a void to fill. Can the Cleveland Cavaliers capitalize on this opportunity to level the playing field? With their own injury concerns, notably Jarrett Allen’s absence, and coming off a taxing seven-game series, the Cavaliers’ offense may continue to struggle.

Meanwhile, in a throwback to the 90s, we get flashbacks of Spike Lee and Reggie Miller with the matchup between the New York Knicks and Indiana Pacers. The Knicks emerge from a captivating series against the 76ers, earning acclaim for their resilient and clutch performances. Their gritty, grind-it-out style contrasts sharply with the run-and-gun approach of the Indiana Pacers, setting the stage for an intriguing clash of styles in this upcoming series.

Similar to the first round, here are 3 bullet points for each team and a link to the matchup page where you can dive into advanced stats, trends, splits, and situational spots. Sign up for access to this website free until August 1.

2. New York Knicks vs. 6. Indiana Pacers

Click here for The Money Baller matchup page for stats, trends, splits, and systems for this matchup.


New York Knicks

  • A key catalyst for the Knicks’ success has been the presence of OG Anunoby. When Anunoby has been on the court, the Knicks have thrived with an outstanding 24-5 straight up record and a 19-10 ATS record. Anunoby’s versatile contributions have proven instrumental in elevating the team’s performance on both ends of the court.
  • Knicks’ games are 15-3 to the over in their last 18 games. Surprisingly, the Knicks ranked #7 in Offensive Rating during the regular season, exceeding expectations for a team coached by the defensive-minded Tom Thibodeau.
  • Despite their overall success, the Knicks have faced challenges against the Indiana Pacers in recent matchups. They have suffered losses in three out of their last four encounters with the Pacers, highlighting the competitive nature of their rivalry.


Indiana Pacers

  • The Pacers have defied odds this season, sporting a solid 24-16-1 ATS record as underdogs. Their ability to exceed expectations underscores their resilience and competitive spirit on the court. When facing teams with an Offensive Rating greater than the league average, the Pacers have thrived, compiling an impressive 26-12-1 ATS record.
  • In their previous 11 games, the Pacers have showcased their offensive firepower and their games went 9-2 record to the over. This streak of high-scoring games highlights their ability to generate scoring opportunities and capitalize on offensive possessions.
  • Despite their strengths, the Pacers face challenges in rebounding, particularly on the defensive end. Ranking 25th in Offensive Rebound Percentage allowed, they are susceptible to opponents’ second-chance opportunities. This weakness could be exploited by opponents like the New York Knicks, who lead the league in Offensive Rebound Percentage.

1. Boston Celtics vs. 4. Cleveland Cavaliers

Click here for The Money Baller matchup page for stats, trends, splits, and systems for this matchup.


Boston Celtics

  • The Boston Celtics have demonstrated their strength in the first half throughout the season, boasting an impressive 60-26-1 ATS record in the first half. This trend continued into the playoffs, where they went 4-1 ATS in the first half against the Miami Heat in the first round, highlighting their ability to start games strong.
  • The Celtics will be without Kristaps Porzingis in this round due to a calf injury. However, historical data reveals that the Celtics have fared well in games without Porzingis, holding a strong 22-4 SU and 16-8-2 ATS record. On/Off numbers indicate a decrease in Pace by an average of 4.7 possessions per 48 minutes when Porzingis is off the court; interestingly, their games have trended towards the over, with a record of 15-11.
  • Teams playing as home favorites in Game 1 with a rest advantage have historically performed exceptionally well. Data from the KillerSports.com database reveals a strong 59-41 (59%) ATS record for such teams, underscoring the significance of rest and home-court advantage in setting the tone for the series. This historical trend could be a factor to consider in assessing the performance of teams in Game 1 matchups.


Cleveland Cavaliers

  • Teams coming off a seven-game series typically face challenges in Game 1 of the following series. Historical data from the Killer Sports database dating back to the 2002-2003 season reveals a 24-37-1 (39.3%) ATS record. Additionally, these games have trended towards the over, with a record of 37-23-2 (61.7%).
  • The Cavaliers have faced difficulties in games without their key player, Jarrett Allen. They hold a 2-7 ATS record this season when Allen is sidelined. On/Off numbers from Basketball Reference underscore Allen’s significance, showing a notable -6.1 Net Rating when he is off the court. His absence could pose challenges for the Cavaliers and is worth monitoring, especially if he misses additional playing time.
  • Cleveland has encountered road struggles in recent outings, losing 10 of their last 11 road games and posting a dismal 2-9 ATS record in those matchups. This road slump continued into the first round of the playoffs, where they faltered with a 0-3 record both SU and ATS against the Magic.

NBA Playoffs | Round 2: Western Conference Preview

Posted on by The Money Baller Team

The dust has settled on the Western Conference Round 1 battles, leaving fans eagerly anticipating the upcoming slobber knocker that is Round 2.

Among the thrilling matchups is the clash between the Denver Nuggets and the Minnesota Timberwolves, two Northwest Division rivals. Adding spice to the showdown are some juicy narratives: Timberwolves’ President of Basketball Operations, Tim Connelly was once part of the Nuggets’ brain trust that helped form their current-day roster. The Wolves, seeking redemption after last year’s playoff defeat, are primed for revenge. All eyes are on 22-year-old sensation Anthony Edwards, whose meteoric rise has brought upon a compelling matchup against the reigning NBA champions. Get your popcorn ready and brace yourselves for a showdown of epic proportions.

In the wake of the Timberwolves’ electrifying rise, another young force has emerged in the NBA landscape: the Oklahoma City Thunder. This dynamic squad has captivated fans with their performances and unexpected successes. The Thunder and the Dallas Mavericks enter the matchup riding waves of momentum, making this a highly anticipated showdown between two red-hot contenders.

Similar to the first round, here are 3 bullet points for each team and a link to the matchup page where you can dive into advanced stats, trends, splits, and situational spots. Sign up for access to this website free until August 1.

2. Denver Nuggets vs. 3. Minnesota Timberwolves

Click here for The Money Baller matchup page for stats, trends, splits, and systems for this matchup.

Denver Nuggets

  • The absence of Jamal Murray has been felt by the Nuggets this season, evident in their 8-15 record against the spread (ATS) in games where he did not play. Keep that in mind if he misses time during the series as he nurses a calf injury.
  • The Nuggets/Lakers series set a brisk pace, registering at the highest pace (96.4) in the first round. This uptempo style of play could carry over into the second-round matchup against the Timberwolves, potentially leading to higher-scoring contests as both teams look to push the pace and capitalize on offensive opportunities.
  • One area where the Nuggets hold an advantage is in first-half performance. Despite slow starts in the first round against the Lakers, season-long statistics reveal a favorable trend for Denver in the first half, with a 46-41 record against the spread (1H ATS). In contrast, the Timberwolves struggled in the first half during the regular season, posting a 36-48-1 record against the spread (1H ATS). This disparity could be a key factor in shaping the early stages of games in the upcoming series.

Minnesota Timberwolves

  • Looking ahead to the next round, the Timberwolves face a formidable opponent in the Denver Nuggets. In their four meetings, they split the series 2-2, with the Timberwolves covering in three out of four games.
  • The Timberwolves have excelled on the defensive end. Finishing the regular season ranked #1 in Defensive Rating underscores their ability to stifle opponents. However, the market on their totals is lower than actual. In their recent 12-game stretch, the Timberwolves have gone 9-3 record to the over.
  • While their defensive achievements have garnered attention, the Timberwolves have also been a force to be reckoned with on the offensive end. Ranking first in Offensive Rating (123.2) and Offensive Rebound Percentage (39.2%) in the first round, they have showcased their ability to score at will and dominate the boards.

1. Oklahoma City Thunder vs. 5. Dallas Mavericks

Click here for The Money Baller matchup page for stats, trends, splits, and systems for this matchup.

Oklahoma City Thunder

  • The Thunder, a young and impressive team, have demonstrated their dominance at home by finishing with an outstanding 35-8 SU and 28-15 ATS record.
  • In recent weeks, the Thunder have been on a tear, rattling off nine consecutive wins. This impressive streak includes a sweep against the New Orleans Pelicans and a 7-2 ATS record.
  • While their last head-to-head matchup with the Mavericks may have fallen short of the total, seven of their previous eight matchups have gone over the total with an average score of 237.3.

Dallas Mavericks

  • The Mavericks have also been dominant in recent weeks, going 20-6 straight up and ATS in their previous 26, showcasing their momentum. They are 19-3 SU and 18-4 ATS in their previous 22 games that Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving played together.
  • Throughout 2024, the Mavericks have a solid 36-19 record to the under.
  • The Mavericks have established themselves as road warriors, boasting an impressive 28-15-1 ATS record in road games this season. Their ability to perform well away from home speaks to their resilience and adaptability.

Decoding NBA Playoff Scoring Trends: The Case for Unders in Games 6 and 7

Posted on by The Money Baller Team

As NBA playoff series unfold, a fascinating pattern emerges – scoring tends to decrease as the pressure mounts. Teams battle tooth and nail, defenses tighten, and every possession becomes a battleground. In this article, we delve into the statistical evidence behind this phenomenon and explore why unders could be a savvy play in Games 6 and 7 of playoff series.

Let’s dissect the average scoring and field goal percentage data by series game since the 2018-2019 season:

Series GamePPGFG%
1219.030.46
2218.880.46
3219.360.46
4217.720.45
5217.670.46
6214.980.45
7197.380.42

As the series progresses, we observe a consistent decline in scoring output, accompanied by a slight dip in field goal percentage. These numbers underscore the intensifying defensive battles and heightened pressure that characterize later games in playoff series.

Why Unders in Games 6 and 7? The statistical trends suggest compelling reasons why unders could be a smart bet in Games 6 and 7 of NBA playoff series:

As the series wears on, offensive efficiency tends to decline. Tighter defense, increased fatigue, and heightened pressure contribute to lower shooting percentages and fewer scoring opportunities. This trend often leads to fewer total points scored, making the under an attractive proposition for astute bettors.

Games 6s have historically been a strong under play. They’ve gone 99-71-6 (58.2%) dating back to the 2002-2003 season, per the KillerSports.com SDQL database.

Game 7s are the ultimate pressure cooker in NBA playoffs. With the series on the line, both teams dial up the defensive intensity, resulting in a slugfest characterized by rugged defense and low-scoring affairs. Additionally, the lower FG% in Game 7 indicates that shots are harder to come by, further supporting the case for betting the under. Game 7s have gone 12-4 to the under since the 2018-2019 season, 42-24 (63.6%) dating back to the 2002-2003 season.

By understanding the statistical patterns and factors driving decreased scoring as series progress, bettors can make informed decisions and gain an edge in the volatile world of NBA playoff betting. Whether it’s the grind-it-out nature of Game 6 or the pressure-packed atmosphere of Game 7, betting the under should be a strong consideration (among other factors) for those seeking to maximize their returns in the postseason arena.