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Our Baller Exclusive NBA base model is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions take into consideration stats like offensive rating, defensive rating, pace, and a variety of other factors that we feel are important in making up a team's numeric profile. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it is a good place to start when thinking ahout a particular matchup.

Our base model gives the Timberwolves (-4) a 55.5-52.4% chance of covering as a favorite, and projects the game going over 207 around 73.6-68.5% of the time, depending on how much you weight season-long vs. recent data, respectively. Looking at how the teams perform at home / on the road, the Timberwolves have a 61.5% chance of covering as a favorite at home, and the game has a 71.3% chance of going over the total.


Mavericks Situational Notes
Rest advantage
Well-rested (two or more days of rest)
In-season revenge
Double digit, in-season revenge

Baller Systems
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Timberwolves Situational Notes
Well-rested (two or more days of rest)
Coming off a win as a dog (letdown)

Baller Systems
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Mavericks Schedule

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
5/24MINDAL +5.5
MIN -5.5
207DAL---
5/22MINDAL +4
MIN -4
207DAL---
5/18DAL [ 117 ]DAL -3.5
OKC +3.5
209.5OKC [ 116 ]+1-2.5+23.5
5/15OKC [ 92 ]DAL +4.5
OKC -4.5
213DAL [ 104 ]+12+16.5-17
5/13DAL [ 96 ]DAL -1
OKC +1
213OKC [ 100 ]-4-5-17
5/11DAL [ 105 ]DAL -2.5
OKC +2.5
218OKC [ 101 ]+4+1.5-12
5/9OKC [ 110 ]DAL +5
OKC -5
217.5DAL [ 119 ]+9+14+11.5
5/7OKC [ 117 ]DAL +3.5
OKC -3.5
218DAL [ 95 ]-22-18.5-6
5/3DAL [ 114 ]DAL -8.5
LAC +8.5
209LAC [ 101 ]+13+4.5+6
5/1LAC [ 93 ]DAL -3
LAC +3
209.5DAL [ 123 ]+30+27+6.5

Timberwolves Schedule

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
5/24MINMIN -5.5
DAL +5.5
207DAL---
5/22MINMIN -4
DAL +4
207DAL---
5/19DEN [ 90 ]MIN +4.5
DEN -4.5
199MIN [ 98 ]+8+12.5-11
5/16MIN [ 115 ]MIN -2.5
DEN +2.5
204.5DEN [ 70 ]+45+42.5-19.5
5/14DEN [ 112 ]MIN +4.5
DEN -4.5
205.5MIN [ 97 ]-15-10.5+3.5
5/12MIN [ 107 ]MIN -3
DEN +3
204.5DEN [ 115 ]-8-11+17.5
5/10MIN [ 90 ]MIN -4.5
DEN +4.5
204.5DEN [ 117 ]-27-31.5+2.5
5/6DEN [ 80 ]MIN +5.5
DEN -5.5
205.5MIN [ 106 ]+26+31.5-19.5
5/4DEN [ 99 ]MIN +5
DEN -5
208MIN [ 106 ]+7+12-3
4/28PHO [ 116 ]MIN +1
PHO -1
213MIN [ 122 ]+6+7+25

Historical Matchups

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin Pace Ortg Drtg Net Tot
5/30MINMIN -4.5
DAL +4.5
209.5DAL--------
5/28DALMIN +1.5
DAL -1.5
210.5MIN--------
5/26DALMIN +2.5
DAL -2.5
207.5MIN--------
5/24MINMIN -5.5
DAL +5.5
207DAL--------
5/22MINMIN -4
DAL +4
207DAL--------
1/31MIN [ 121 ]MIN -14
DAL +14
221.5DAL [ 87 ]+34+20-13.5110.3131.694.637208
1/7DAL [ 115 ]MIN -2
DAL +2
234.5MIN [ 108 ]-7-9-11.5114.2113.5120.9-7.4223
12/28MIN [ 118 ]MIN -12.5
DAL +12.5
228DAL [ 110 ]+8-4.50120.3117.7109.78228
12/14DAL [ 101 ]MIN -2
DAL +2
231.5MIN [ 119 ]+18+16-11.5119.8119.2101.218220
2/13DAL [ 121 ]MIN +5.5
DAL -5.5
232MIN [ 124 ]+3+8.5+13114.4130.11273.1245
12/21MIN [ 99 ]MIN +2.5
DAL -2.5
227.5DAL [ 104 ]-5-2.5-24.5110.1107.9113.3-5.4203


Straight Up Records (SU)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Mavericks 1h6-5-12-3-10-0-01-1-03-1-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Mavericks 8-44-20-01-13-10-00-00-00-0
Timberwolves 1h4-7-02-3-00-0-00-0-02-4-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Timberwolves 8-33-20-00-05-10-00-00-00-0

Against the Spread Records (ATS)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Mavericks 1h6-6-02-4-00-0-01-1-03-1-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Mavericks 7-5-03-3-00-0-01-1-03-1-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Timberwolves 1h4-7-02-3-00-0-00-0-02-4-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Timberwolves 8-3-03-2-00-0-00-0-05-1-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0

Over/Under Records (OU)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Mavericks 1h4-8-02-4-00-0-00-2-02-2-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Mavericks 5-7-03-3-00-0-01-1-01-3-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Timberwolves 1h4-7-02-3-00-0-00-0-02-4-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Timberwolves 6-5-03-2-00-0-00-0-03-3-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0

Team Total Records (TT)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Mavericks 1h3-9-00-6-00-0-01-1-02-2-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Mavericks 5-7-03-3-00-0-01-1-01-3-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Timberwolves 1h5-6-02-3-00-0-00-0-03-3-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Timberwolves 8-3-03-2-00-0-00-0-05-1-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0

Opponent Team Total Records (OTT)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Mavericks 1h6-6-03-3-00-0-01-1-02-2-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Mavericks 5-7-03-3-00-0-01-1-01-3-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Timberwolves 1h4-7-02-3-00-0-00-0-02-4-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Timberwolves 5-6-02-3-00-0-00-0-03-3-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0


ATS Range Records

TeamDog 10+Dog 7-10Dog 2.5-7Within 2.5Fav 2.5-7Fav 7-10Fav 10+
Timberwolves0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)4-1-0 (80%)1-0-0 (100%)3-2-0 (60%)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)
Mavericks0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)2-1-0 (66.7%)1-1-0 (50%)3-3-0 (50%)1-0-0 (100%)0-0-0 (-)