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Mavericks @ Timberwolves [ Timberwolves -4 / 207 ]

Mavericks | 58-36 (61.7%)
Timberwolves | 64-29 (68.8%)

Our Baller Exclusive NBA base model is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions take into consideration stats like offensive rating, defensive rating, pace, and a variety of other factors that we feel are important in making up a team's numeric profile. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it is a good place to start when thinking ahout a particular matchup.

Our modell will run after the first two weeks of the season.

Mavericks Situational Notes
Rest advantage
Well-rested (two or more days of rest)
In-season revenge
Double digit, in-season revenge

Baller Systems
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Timberwolves Situational Notes
Well-rested (two or more days of rest)
Coming off a win as a dog (letdown)

Baller Systems
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Mavericks Schedule

	Home	Line	Total	Away	SU Margin	ATS Margin	OU Margin
5/24	MIN	DAL +5.5 MIN -5.5	207	DAL	-	-	-
5/22	MIN	DAL +4 MIN -4	207	DAL	-	-	-
5/18	DAL [ 117 ]	DAL -3.5 OKC +3.5	209.5	OKC [ 116 ]	+1	-2.5	+23.5
5/15	OKC [ 92 ]	DAL +4.5 OKC -4.5	213	DAL [ 104 ]	+12	+16.5	-17
5/13	DAL [ 96 ]	DAL -1 OKC +1	213	OKC [ 100 ]	-4	-5	-17
5/11	DAL [ 105 ]	DAL -2.5 OKC +2.5	218	OKC [ 101 ]	+4	+1.5	-12
5/9	OKC [ 110 ]	DAL +5 OKC -5	217.5	DAL [ 119 ]	+9	+14	+11.5
5/7	OKC [ 117 ]	DAL +3.5 OKC -3.5	218	DAL [ 95 ]	-22	-18.5	-6
5/3	DAL [ 114 ]	DAL -8.5 LAC +8.5	209	LAC [ 101 ]	+13	+4.5	+6
5/1	LAC [ 93 ]	DAL -3 LAC +3	209.5	DAL [ 123 ]	+30	+27	+6.5

Timberwolves Schedule

	Home	Line	Total	Away	SU Margin	ATS Margin	OU Margin
5/24	MIN	MIN -5.5 DAL +5.5	207	DAL	-	-	-
5/22	MIN	MIN -4 DAL +4	207	DAL	-	-	-
5/19	DEN [ 90 ]	MIN +4.5 DEN -4.5	199	MIN [ 98 ]	+8	+12.5	-11
5/16	MIN [ 115 ]	MIN -2.5 DEN +2.5	204.5	DEN [ 70 ]	+45	+42.5	-19.5
5/14	DEN [ 112 ]	MIN +4.5 DEN -4.5	205.5	MIN [ 97 ]	-15	-10.5	+3.5
5/12	MIN [ 107 ]	MIN -3 DEN +3	204.5	DEN [ 115 ]	-8	-11	+17.5
5/10	MIN [ 90 ]	MIN -4.5 DEN +4.5	204.5	DEN [ 117 ]	-27	-31.5	+2.5
5/6	DEN [ 80 ]	MIN +5.5 DEN -5.5	205.5	MIN [ 106 ]	+26	+31.5	-19.5
5/4	DEN [ 99 ]	MIN +5 DEN -5	208	MIN [ 106 ]	+7	+12	-3
4/28	PHO [ 116 ]	MIN +1 PHO -1	213	MIN [ 122 ]	+6	+7	+25

Historical Matchups

	Home	Line	Total	Away	SU Margin	ATS Margin	OU Margin	Pace	Ortg	Drtg	Net	Tot
1/22	DAL	- -	-	MIN	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
12/25	DAL	MIN +3 DAL -3	228.5	MIN	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10/29	MIN	MIN -4.5 DAL +4.5	220.5	DAL	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5/30	MIN	MIN -4.5 DAL +4.5	209.5	DAL	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5/28	DAL	MIN +1.5 DAL -1.5	210.5	MIN	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5/26	DAL	MIN +2.5 DAL -2.5	207.5	MIN	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5/24	MIN	MIN -5.5 DAL +5.5	207	DAL	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5/22	MIN	MIN -4 DAL +4	207	DAL	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
1/31	MIN [ 121 ]	MIN -14 DAL +14	221.5	DAL [ 87 ]	+34	+20	-13.5	91.9	131.6	94.6	37	208
1/7	DAL [ 115 ]	MIN -2 DAL +2	234.5	MIN [ 108 ]	-7	-9	-11.5	95.1	113.5	120.9	-7.4	223
12/28	MIN [ 118 ]	MIN -12.5 DAL +12.5	228	DAL [ 110 ]	+8	-4.5	0	100.3	117.7	109.7	8	228

** The first week of the season will include last season's regular games by default.

Efficiency

Mavericks (82 games)		Timberwolves (82 games)
0.6 (6)	Win Percentage	0.6 (5)
56.79 (4)	ATS Win%	51.85 (13)
40.51 (30)	OU%	49.38 (19)
-	Strength of Schedule	-
116.65 (14)	Offensive Rating	116.24 (16)
113.48 (10)	Defensive Rating	110.52 (1)
97.37 (17)	Pace	95.6 (28)
1.91 (22)	A/TO Ratio	1.92 (21)

Four Factors

Mavericks (82 games)		Timberwolves (82 games)
55.56 (10)	EFG%	55.62 (8)
53.2 (5)	EFG% Allowed	52.78 (2)
25.15 (11)	FT Rate	26.2 (6)
25 (17)	FT Rate Allowed	25.97 (23)
23.77 (21)	OReb%	23.68 (22)
23.75 (12)	OReb% Allowed	23.07 (8)
13.14 (10)	TO Rate	14.07 (21)
13.08 (20)	TO Rate Forced	14.69 (5)

Scoring

Mavericks (82 games)		Timberwolves (82 games)
113.87 (14)	PPG	111.84 (22)
110.77 (9)	PPG Allowed	106.33 (1)
15.54 (22)	Pts off TO	16.74 (10)
15.35 (8)	Pts off TO Allowed	16.37 (17)
13.85 (15)	2nd Chance Pts	13.67 (16)
13.11 (9)	2nd Chance Pts Allowed	11.89 (3)
14.95 (9)	Fast Break Pts	12.01 (29)
14.17 (15)	Fast Break Pts Allowed	13.57 (9)

Inside the Arc

Mavericks (82 games)		Timberwolves (82 games)
41.48 (26)	Paint Attempts	42.63 (22)
42.72 (10)	Paint Attempts Allowed	42.39 (7)
59.42 (5)	Paint FG%	57.35 (16)
54.81 (3)	Paint FG% Allowed	54.66 (2)
9.98 (15)	Mid-Range Attempts	7.72 (27)
10.24 (18)	Mid-Range Attempts Allowed	10.24 (19)
0.44 (9)	Mid-Range FG%	0.39 (22)
0.43 (22)	Mid-Range FG% Allowed	0.4 (5)

Three Point Shooting

Mavericks (82 games)		Timberwolves (82 games)
10.49 (3)	Corner 3 Attempts	10.37 (4)
10.56 (27)	Corner 3 Attempts Allowed	8 (8)
35.7 (29)	Corner 3 FG%	38.35 (19)
37.88 (10)	Corner 3 FG% Allowed	38.41 (14)
25.5 (15)	ATB3 Attempts	24.22 (20)
24.45 (9)	ATB3 Attempts Allowed	23.65 (3)
36.3 (11)	ATB3 FG%	38.27 (1)
35.26 (8)	ATB3 FG% Allowed	35.69 (14)

Straight Up Records (SU)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Mavericks 1h	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Mavericks	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0
Timberwolves 1h	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Timberwolves	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0

Against the Spread Records (ATS)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Mavericks 1h	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Mavericks	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Timberwolves 1h	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Timberwolves	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0

Over/Under Records (OU)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Mavericks 1h	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Mavericks	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Timberwolves 1h	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Timberwolves	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0

Team Total Records (TT)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Mavericks 1h	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Mavericks	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Timberwolves 1h	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Timberwolves	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0

Opponent Team Total Records (OTT)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Mavericks 1h	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Mavericks	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Timberwolves 1h	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0
Timberwolves	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0	0-0-0

ATS Range Records

Team	Dog 10+	Dog 7-10	Dog 2.5-7	Within 2.5	Fav 2.5-7	Fav 7-10	Fav 10+
Mavericks	3-0-0 (100%)	5-2-0 (71.4%)	6-7-0 (46.2%)	4-6-1 (40%)	7-19-1 (26.9%)	4-8-1 (33.3%)	2-5-0 (28.6%)
Timberwolves	2-2-0 (50%)	3-7-0 (30%)	17-8-0 (68%)	9-9-0 (50%)	6-10-0 (37.5%)	6-6-0 (50%)	1-1-1 (50%)