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Date: Sunday, September 22, 2024
Matchup: Phoenix Mercury at Minnesota Lynx
Time: TBA
The Minnesota Lynx are set to open the first round of the WNBA playoffs against the Phoenix Mercury on September 22, 2024. At the time of writing (with one meaningless game left for each team) the Lynx are locked into the 2-seed with a 30-9 record (77%) and the Mercury are locked into the 7-seed with a 19-20 record (49%). The Lynx had a soft open as 6.5 point favorites, a line that quickly moved to 9 and now sits around 10 at most books, reflecting the early support for the Lynx. The total sits at 159.
The Lynx have been a dominant team all season long, outperforming their pre-season expectations (30 wins with a game to go vs. their pre-season win-total, which was set at 16.5). Many people have likened their style of play to that of the Celtics in the NBA – a team that spreads the floor with good shooting while locking down on the defensive end. Indeed, the Lynx were the most efficient team from beyond the arc this year in the WNBA while ranking second in 3pt% allowed to their opponents – many will refer to this as a “math” challenge for anyone going up against the Lynx. Their offensive rating is 103.8, good for 4th in the league, and the Lynx particularly excelled on the defensive side of the ball, stifling opponents with a league-best 95.1 defensive rating. The Lynx have also thrived at home where they boast a net-rating of +11.2 (vs. +6.9 on the road – still great!).
The Mercury come into the playoffs right around where their pre-season expectations were projected (19 wins with a game to go vs. their pre-season win-total, which was set at 18.5). While the Mercury have played well enough to coast into the 7th seed without any doubts down the stretch, they have been far from dominant this season. As their slightly sub-.500 record would suggest, they have struggled with consistency. They are bottom-half in both offensive and defensive efficiency, and while they play fine enough at home (-1 net-rating), they have had particular struggles on the road where their net-rating drops to -7.9.
This game sets up to be a clash between a team in the Lynx that plays hyper-efficiently on both sides of the ball, and a team that is almost the opposite, inefficient in both areas. The Mercury do have veteran leadership in Diana Taurasi (15.1 ppg) and Brittney Griner (18 ppg), and have benefitted from the addition of scorer Kahleah Copper (21.6 ppg) and guard Natasha Cloud (11.7 ppg, 7 apg). While the talent in their starting lineup was enough to get them to the playoffs, it’s going to be a tough challenge, now, against a young and hungry Lynx squad, lead by Napheesa Collier (20.4 ppg) and Kayla McBride (15 ppg) with a roster that is much more balanced overall.
Although we’re not getting the best of the number, the play is still to take the Lynx -10 as I make a fair number on this game closer to Lynx -13. You could consider a slightly smaller bet on this as backing double-digit favorites in the WNBA is not a profitable angle, but the discrepancy in talent is just too great and I’d be comfortable laying .5 units at the current price.