The playoffs are finally here! What an exciting time for hoops fans. Here are 3 bullet points for each team and a link to the matchup page where you can dive into advanced stats, trends, splits, and situational spots. Sign up for access to this website free until August 1.
2. Denver Nuggets vs. 7. Los Angeles Lakers
Click here for The Money Baller matchup page for stats, trends, splits, and systems for this matchup.
Denver Nuggets
- The Nuggets have demonstrated dominance over the Lakers, winning 8 straight matchups, including 4 games in last season’s Western Conference Finals where they swept the Lakers.
- The Nuggets excel particularly in the first half of games, boasting a strong 46-36 ATS record in first-half betting compared to their 38-42-2 ATS full-game record.
- Since the All-Star Break, the Nuggets have been formidable, posting a 16-3 straight up record and going 13-6 ATS when both Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray are on the court together.
Los Angeles Lakers
- The Lakers have been involved in high-scoring games on the road this season, with a 26-15 over record overall and a 27-13-1 over record in the first half. Their Defensive Rating on the road ranks 22nd in the league.
- Despite facing weaker competition, the Lakers have been successful on the road, winning their last 6 road games and going 4-2 ATS in those matchups.
- Although it’s a small sample size, teams coming off road wins in the Play-In tournament have struggled to cover the spread, going 0-3 ATS since the 2021-2022 season.
3. Minnesota Timberwolves vs. 7. Phoenix Suns
Click here for The Money Baller matchup page for stats, trends, splits, and systems for this matchup.
Minnesota Timberwolves
- Karl-Anthony Towns is returning for his second game after injury. However, Basketball Reference’s On/Off numbers indicate that the Wolves’ Net Rating worsens slightly by 0.2 points when he’s on the floor.
- In their last regular-season game, the Timberwolves suffered an upset loss to the Suns as 2.5-point favorites. They’ll be eager to redeem themselves on their home court.
- Recent home form hasn’t been favorable for the Timberwolves, as they’ve managed just one cover in their last seven games at home.
Phoenix Suns
- Despite high expectations, the Suns have struggled to meet market expectations this season, especially at home, where they have a dismal 15-24-2 ATS record. However, they perform better in the first half, boasting a 22-18-1 ATS record.
- Historically, the Suns have dominated this matchup, winning nine out of the last ten games straight up and against the spread.
- The Suns’ strength lies in their mid-range game, ranking second overall in Mid-Range Shots Attempted and Mid-Range FG%. On the flip side, the Timberwolves struggle to defend the mid-range, ranking 28th in Mid-Range Shots Allowed.
4. Los Angeles Clippers vs. 5. Dallas Mavericks
Click here for The Money Baller matchup page for stats, trends, splits, and systems for this matchup.
Los Angeles Clippers
- When Kawhi Leonard is off the court, the Clippers’ Net Rating plummets by 11.9 points, reflecting his crucial role in their performance. In games without Leonard, the Clippers have struggled, posting a 6-9 ATS record.
- Clippers’ games often trend towards the under, particularly in the first half. They boast impressive records of 49-33 to the 1H under overall, and an outstanding 15-3 to the 1H under as underdogs.
- The Clippers faced challenges post-All-Star break, recording a disappointing 9-20 ATS record, raising concerns about their consistency.
Dallas Mavericks
- The Mavericks closed out the regular season in impressive fashion, going 16-4 straight up and ATS in their final 20 games, showcasing their momentum heading into the playoffs. They are 15-1 SU and 14-2 ATS in their previous 16 games that Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving played together.
- Throughout 2024, the Mavericks have a solid 33-16 record to the under.
- Recent matchups have largely resulted in the under, with 7 of their last 9 games going below the total points line.
1. Oklahoma City Thunder vs. 8. New Orleans Pelicans
Click here for The Money Baller matchup page for stats, trends, splits, and systems for this matchup.
Oklahoma City Thunder
- The Thunder, a young and impressive team, have demonstrated their dominance at home by finishing with an outstanding 33-8 SU and 27-14 ATS record.
- Teams playing as home favorites in Game 1 with a rest advantage of 5 or more days have historically performed exceptionally well, boasting a 17-5 SU and 16-6 ATS record according to data from the KillerSports.com database.
- While the Thunder excel in many areas, one noticeable weakness lies in their lack of presence inside the paint. They rank 28th in Offensive Rebounding % and 27th in Second Chance points, indicating a deficiency that the bigger Pelicans can potentially exploit.
New Orleans Pelicans
- The Pelicans have primarily favored unders this season, going 25-16-1 record against the under for full games and 29-13 to the under in the first half.
- The Pelicans have been a dominant force in the first half, posting an impressive 52-30-1 Against The Spread (ATS) record. This places them second only to the Celtics in first-half ATS performance.
- Despite the absence of key player Zion Williamson for this series, the Pelicans have managed to perform well in his absence. In games without Williamson, they’ve posted an 8-5 straight-up record and an even more impressive 9-4 ATS record. Interestingly, Basketball Reference data reveals that the pace of the game slows down by an average of 3.5 possessions when Williamson is off the court, which makes another case for Pelicans’ unders.
