- Date: Monday, July 29, 2024
- Game: Washington Nationals at Arizona Diamondbacks
- Start Time: 9:40 PM ET
As the Washington Nationals visit the Arizona Diamondbacks tonight, all eyes will be on the matchup on the mound and the contrasting offensive capabilities of the two teams. The Diamondbacks, with their strong track record at home, have an advantage to continue their successful run, especially when Jordan Montgomery takes the hill.
Montgomery has been a stabilizing force for the Diamondbacks this season, particularly in the friendly confines of Arizona. The team is a perfect 5-0 when Montgomery starts as a home favorite. Furthermore, the Diamondbacks have a 7-1 record after Montgomery delivers a quality start.
Offensively, the Diamondbacks have been superior against left-handed pitching at home over the past 30 days, ranking 5th in both wOBA and wRC+. This recent surge contrasts sharply with the Nationals, who have struggled mightily against lefties on the road, sitting 27th in these metrics.
Montgomery’s pitching arsenal, featuring a sinker (36%), curveball (27%), changeup (20%), and 4-seam fastball (15%), aligns well against the Nationals’ lineup. Washington ranks 9th in runs above average against the sinker but falls significantly against the curveball (28th) and changeup (26th). Montgomery’s repertoire could prove challenging for the Nationals’ hitters, particularly given that he’s due for some positive regression (4.31 FIP vs. 6.11 ERA).
On the other side, the Nationals will rely on their starter, Mitchell Parker, whose mix includes a 4-seam fastball (49%), curveball (25%), and splitter (17%). The Diamondbacks have been exceptional against these pitches, ranking 1st in runs above average versus the 4-seam and 2nd against the curveball.
With the Diamondbacks’ strong home-field advantage, a balanced lineup excelling against left-handed pitching, and Montgomery’s ability to deliver quality starts, Arizona appears well-positioned for another solid performance. The Nationals, facing a challenging matchup, will need to overcome significant hurdles to pull off an upset.
The stats and trends point to Diamondbacks ML (-160, Caesars) as a strong look tonight.
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Dominic has been a capper for 15+ years and is a die-hard sports fan who loves to share his passion for numbers and statistics. He is an SDQL expert that shares many amazing stats on his ‘X’ account: @dominic_0404.