NFL Matchups: Predictions, Odds & Betting Trends

Thu, 10/22, 8:15 p.m.
New England Patriots @ Chicago Bears

Patriots: 4-2 (66.7%) - AFC East | Market Rating: +1.52

Bears: 4-2 (66.7%) - NFC North | Market Rating: +0.11 | Home Field: +1.2 pts

Line: -3.0

Total: 50.5

Open: -2

Open: 48

Team totals: Patriots 23.5 · Bears 26.5

NWS forecast: 58°F wind 5 mph NE (gusts 8) 0% precip · Mostly Clear (updated 1h ago)

Injury Report as of Oct 21, 4:07 AM ET NE1 Out2 Doubtful3 Questionable CHI2 Out3 QuestionableD-line: 2 out

Player	Pos · Snaps	Status	Reason
Romeo Doubs	WR · 58%	Out	Doubs (shoulder) is hopeful to return after the Patriots' Week 11 bye and isn't expected to face a long-term absence, Jeremy Fowler of ESPN.com reports.
Alijah Vera-Tucker	G · 89%	Doubtful	Coach Mike Vrabel said Tuesday that Vera-Tucker (hamstring) is unlikely to be available for Thursday's game at Chicago, Mike Reiss of ESPN.com reports.
Ben Brown	C · 43%	Doubtful	Coach Mike Vrabel said Tuesday that Brown (knee) probably won't be available for Thursday's game against the Bears, Mike Reiss of ESPN.com reports.
Carlton Davis III	CB · 96%	Questionable	Davis (neck) was a limited participant in Tuesday's practice.
Morgan Moses	T · 84%	Questionable	Moses (ankle) was a limited participant at the Patriots' practice Tuesday.
A.J. Brown	WR · 60%	Questionable	Brown (ankle) was listed as a limited participant on Tuesday's practice report.

Not in rotation (under 40% of snaps, or no snap in the team's last 8 games): Marcus Bryant, Channing Canada, Karon Prunty

CHI

D-line: 2 starters out (Montez Sweat, Dayo Odeyingbo)

Player	Pos · Snaps	Status	Reason
Montez Sweat	DL · 73%	Out	The NFL announced Tuesday that Sweat has been suspended two games without pay for violating the league's performance-enhancing substances policy, Brad Biggs of the Chicago Tribune reports.
Dayo Odeyingbo	DL · 56%	Out	The Bears placed Odeyingbo (quadriceps) on injured reserve Saturday.
Jonah Jackson	OL · 96%	Questionable	Jackson is dealing with a hip flexor, Jeremy Fowler of ESPN.com reports.
T.J. Edwards	LB · 76%	Questionable	Edwards (hamstring) was estimated as a non-participant on the Bears' official injury report Monday.
Kyle Monangai	RB · 41%	Questionable	Monangai (thumb/toe) was listed as a non-participant in Tuesday's walk-through.

Not in rotation (under 40% of snaps, or no snap in the team's last 8 games): Anthony Johnson Jr., Jack Sanborn

Snaps = share of the team's offensive or defensive snaps in the games he played, over the team's last 8 games (every position, linemen included). Players under 40%, or with no snap in those games (long-term absences), are listed under “Not in rotation.” = a position group with 2+ starters (50%+ of snaps, 40%+ on the D-line) out or doubtful, or 3+ counting questionable.

Notes

Patriots

Situational Factor(s)

Lookahead: next game versus division rival

Short rest: 3 days (TNF)

Baller System(s)

Over system based on market totals vs. average scoring

Bears

Situational Factor(s)

First game home off 2+ game road trip

Short rest: 3 days (TNF)

Baller Index Our Exclusive NFL Baller Index is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions essentially look for teams that have over- or under-performed, in terms of points scored, relative to what would be expected based on their underlying metrics and who might be in for regression. While it does not factor in injuries, situational spots, or historic matchups into account, it can be a good place to start when thinking about a particular matchup.

Model Side

No clear side

Model Total

No clear side

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Schedules

Patriots Schedule

Date	Season	Team	Points	Site	Opponent	Opp Pts	Yds	Rush	Rec	Int	Fum	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
11/08/26	2026	Patriots	-	home	Packers	-	-	-	-	-	-	-1.5	46.5	-	-
11/01/26	2026	Patriots	-	away	Dolphins	-	-	-	-	-	-	-8.0	44.0	-	-
10/22/26	2026	Patriots	-	away	Bears	-	-	-	-	-	-	+3.0	50.5	-	-
10/18/26	2026	Patriots	26	home	Jets	19	383	148	235	1	3	-7.0	43.0	-7	45 (+2.0)
10/11/26	2026	Patriots	45	home	Raiders	17	539	165	374	0	1	-3.5	45.5	-28	62 (+16.5)
10/04/26	2026	Patriots	29	away	Bills	26	412	143	269	1	3	+7.0	49.5	-3	55 (+5.5)
09/27/26	2026	Patriots	6	away	Jaguars	35	328	83	245	1	2	+3.0	46.5	+29	41 (-5.5)
09/20/26	2026	Patriots	20	home	Steelers	3	344	136	208	1	2	-4.5	41.5	-17	23 (-18.5)
09/09/26	2026	Patriots	10	away	Seahawks	13	287	109	178	0	0	+3.0	44.5	+3	23 (-21.5)
02/08/26	2025	Patriots	13	neutral	Seahawks	29	374	79	295	0	1	+4.5	45.5	+16	42 (-3.5)
01/25/26	2025	Patriots	10	away	Broncos	7	227	141	86	1	0	-3.5	43.0	-3	17 (-26.0)
01/18/26	2025	Patriots	28	home	Texans	16	284	105	179	4	4	-3.5	41.0	-12	44 (+3.0)
01/11/26	2025	Patriots	16	home	Chargers	3	414	146	268	0	2	-3.5	45.5	-13	19 (-26.5)
Away Games Avg (4 games)			13.8	-	-	20.3	314	119	195	0.8	1.3	+2.4	45.9	+6.5	34.0 (-11.9)
All Games Avg (10 games)			20.3	-	-	16.8	359	126	234	0.9	1.8	-0.8	44.6	-3.5	37.1 (-7.5)

Bears Schedule

Date	Season	Team	Points	Site	Opponent	Opp Pts	Yds	Rush	Rec	Int	Fum	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
11/08/26	2026	Bears	-	home	Buccaneers	-	-	-	-	-	-	-3.5	48.5	-	-
11/02/26	2026	Bears	-	away	Seahawks	-	-	-	-	-	-	+3.0	46.5	-	-
10/22/26	2026	Bears	-	home	Patriots	-	-	-	-	-	-	-3.0	50.5	-	-
10/18/26	2026	Bears	31	away	Falcons	23	403	98	305	0	2	-1.0	51.5	-8	54 (+2.5)
10/11/26	2026	Bears	7	away	Packers	31	276	81	195	0	2	-1.0	47.0	+24	38 (-9.0)
10/04/26	2026	Bears	23	home	Jets	12	500	232	268	0	1	-3.5	43.5	-11	35 (-8.5)
09/28/26	2026	Bears	27	home	Eagles	7	375	128	247	2	1	+3.5	42.5	-20	34 (-8.5)
09/20/26	2026	Bears	3	home	Vikings	9	326	134	192	0	2	-4.5	46.5	+6	12 (-34.5)
09/13/26	2026	Bears	59	away	Panthers	37	560	291	269	1	1	-3.0	47.0	-22	96 (+49.0)
01/18/26	2025	Bears	17	home	Rams	20	417	160	257	0	1	+3.5	49.5	+3	37 (-12.5)
01/10/26	2025	Bears	31	home	Packers	27	454	93	361	0	1	+1.5	46.5	-4	58 (+11.5)
01/04/26	2025	Bears	16	home	Lions	19	277	65	212	1	1	-3.5	51.5	+3	35 (-16.5)
12/28/25	2025	Bears	38	away	49ers	42	440	110	330	1	0	+4.5	51.5	+4	80 (+28.5)
Home Games Avg (6 games)			19.5	-	-	15.7	392	135	256	0.5	1.2	-0.5	46.7	-3.8	35.2 (-11.5)
All Games Avg (10 games)			25.2	-	-	22.7	403	139	264	0.5	1.2	-0.4	47.7	-2.5	47.9 (+0.2)

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Records

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Notable Trends

The Bears are 20% (1-4) (L30 days) to the over/under

The Bears are 25% (1-3) (L30 days) to the over/under as a fav

The Patriots are 75% (3-1-2) against the spread

The Patriots are 75% (3-1-1) (L30 days) against the spread

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Bears (Home)

The Bears are 66.7% (4-2) against the spread

The Bears are 66.7% (2-1) against the spread at home

The Bears are 60% (3-2) against the spread as a fav

The Bears are 50% (1-1) against the spread as a home fav

The Bears are 33.3% (2-4) to the over/under

The Bears are 0% (0-3) to the over/under at home

The Bears are 40% (2-3) to the over/under as a fav

The Bears are 0% (0-2) to the over/under as a home fav

The Bears are 60% (3-2) (L30 days) against the spread

The Bears are 66.7% (2-1) (L30 days) against the spread at home

The Bears are 50% (2-2) (L30 days) against the spread as a fav

The Bears are 50% (1-1) (L30 days) against the spread as a home fav

The Bears are 20% (1-4) (L30 days) to the over/under

The Bears are 0% (0-3) (L30 days) to the over/under at home

The Bears are 25% (1-3) (L30 days) to the over/under as a fav

The Bears are 0% (0-2) (L30 days) to the over/under as a home fav

Patriots (Away)

The Patriots are 75% (3-1-2) against the spread

The Patriots are 50% (1-1-1) against the spread away

The Patriots are 50% (1-1-1) against the spread as a dog

The Patriots are 50% (1-1-1) against the spread as an away dog

The Patriots are 50% (3-3) to the over/under

The Patriots are 33.3% (1-2) to the over/under away

The Patriots are 33.3% (1-2) to the over/under as a dog

The Patriots are 33.3% (1-2) to the over/under as an away dog

The Patriots are 75% (3-1-1) (L30 days) against the spread

The Patriots are 50% (1-1) (L30 days) against the spread away

The Patriots are 50% (1-1) (L30 days) against the spread as a dog

The Patriots are 50% (1-1) (L30 days) against the spread as an away dog

The Patriots are 60% (3-2) (L30 days) to the over/under

The Patriots are 50% (1-1) (L30 days) to the over/under away

The Patriots are 50% (1-1) (L30 days) to the over/under as a dog

The Patriots are 50% (1-1) (L30 days) to the over/under as an away dog

Historical Matchups (Last 3 Seasons, Max 10)

Date	Season	Team	Pts	Site	Opponent	Pts	Yds	Rush	Rec	Int	Fum	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
11/10/24	2024	Bears	3	Home	Patriots	19	193	73	120	1	0	-6.5	37.5	+16	22
Bears as Home (1 games)			3.0	-	-	19.0	193	73	120	1.0	0.0	-6.5	37.5	+16.0	22.0
All Games Avg (1 games)			3.0	-	-	19.0	193	73	120	1.0	0.0	-6.5	37.5	+16.0	22.0

Algorithm	Model Side
DVOA ZScores Normalized DVOA comparision. High Confidence: 16-11-1 (59.3%)	Neutral
Basic Stats 8-feature regression. Medium Confidence: 13-14-2 (48.1%)	Neutral
Luck Regression Looking at things like int, fumbles, etc. High Confidence: 3-2-1 (60%)	Neutral
ATS Analysis 2-feature logistic regression. High Confidence: 9-7-2 (56.3%)	Neutral
Cover Summary	No Bet
OVERALL	No Spread Edge \| No Total Edge

NFL Matchups: Predictions, Odds & Betting Trends

Thu, 10/22, 8:15 p.m. New England Patriots @ Chicago Bears window.TMB_PAGE_CONTEXT = { page: 'matchup', sport: "nfl", away_team: "New England Patriots", home_team: "Chicago Bears", game_date: "2026-10-22" };

Injury Report as of Oct 21, 4:07 AM ET NE1 Out2 Doubtful3 Questionable CHI2 Out3 QuestionableD-line: 2 out

Notes

Patriots

Situational Factor(s)

Baller System(s)

Bears

Situational Factor(s)

Model Side

Model Total

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Algorithm Breakdown

Schedules

Patriots Schedule

Bears Schedule

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Records

Notable Trends

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Bears (Home)

Patriots (Away)

Historical Matchups (Last 3 Seasons, Max 10)

Thu, 10/22, 8:15 p.m.
New England Patriots @ Chicago Bears