Cardinals @ Dolphins [ Dolphins -5 / 46.5 ]

Cardinals | 5-5 (50%)
Dolphins | 3-6 (33.3%)

Our Baller Exclusive NFL base model is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions essentially look for teams that have over- or under-performed, in terms of points scored, relative to what would be expected based on their underlying metrics and who might be in for regression. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it can be a good place to start when thinking ahout a particular matchup.

Our model gives the Dolphins (-5) a 42.05% chance of covering as a favorite, and projects the game going over the total (46.5) around 49.4% of the time. While we factor in recent vs. season-long performance as well as home/away splits, we don't display those numbers here since the small sample can show some relatively large variance.

Cardinals Situational Notes
Rest Disadvantage
Short rest: 4 or 5 days

Dolphins Situational Notes
Rest Advantage
Lookahead: next game versus division rival
First game home off 2+ game road trip

Cardinals Schedule
Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
11/24SEAARI +3
SEA -3
46ARI---
11/10ARI [ 31 ]ARI +2
NYJ -2
46NYJ [ 6 ]+25+27-9
11/3ARI [ 29 ]ARI -1.5
CHI +1.5
44.5CHI [ 9 ]+20+18.5-6.5
10/27MIA [ 27 ]ARI +5
MIA -5
46.5ARI [ 28 ]+1+6+8.5
10/21ARI [ 29 ]ARI +1
LAC -1
44LAC [ 31 ]-2-1+16
10/13GB [ 34 ]ARI +5.5
GB -5.5
47ARI [ 13 ]-21-15.50
10/6SF [ 23 ]ARI +7.5
SF -7.5
49ARI [ 24 ]+1+8.5-2
9/29ARI [ 14 ]ARI -3.5
WAS +3.5
49WAS [ 42 ]-28-31.5+7
9/22ARI [ 13 ]ARI +3
DET -3
51.5DET [ 20 ]-7-4-18.5
9/15ARI [ 41 ]ARI -1
LAR +1
47LAR [ 10 ]+31+30+4
Dolphins Schedule
Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
11/17MIAMIA -7.5
LV +7.5
44LV---
11/11LAR [ 15 ]MIA +2.5
LAR -2.5
49.5MIA [ 23 ]+8+10.5-11.5
11/3BUF [ 30 ]MIA +6.5
BUF -6.5
49MIA [ 27 ]-3+3.5+8
10/27MIA [ 27 ]MIA -5
ARI +5
46.5ARI [ 28 ]-1-6+8.5
10/20IND [ 16 ]MIA +3
IND -3
44MIA [ 10 ]-6-3-18
10/6NE [ 10 ]MIA -1.5
NE +1.5
36.5MIA [ 15 ]+5+3.5-11.5
9/30MIA [ 12 ]MIA -2.5
TEN +2.5
37.5TEN [ 31 ]-19-21.5+5.5
9/22SEA [ 24 ]MIA +4.5
SEA -4.5
42MIA [ 3 ]-21-16.5-15
9/12MIA [ 10 ]MIA -2.5
BUF +2.5
49BUF [ 31 ]-21-23.5-8
9/8MIA [ 20 ]MIA -3.5
JAX +3.5
50JAX [ 17 ]+3-0.5-13
Historical Matchups
Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU MarginYdsRushRecPlaysYds/PlayYds/PtIntFum
10/27MIA [ 27 ]MIA -5
ARI +5
46.5ARI [ 28 ]-1-6+8.5MIA
ARI		384
389		150
82		234
307		66
64		5.8
6.1		14.2
13.7		0
0		4
1
11/8ARI [ 31 ]MIA +4.5
ARI -4.5
49MIA [ 34 ]+3+7.5+16MIA
ARI		339
461		91
178		248
283		58
66		5.8
7		10
10.9		0
0		0
2
12/11MIA [ 26 ]MIA +1.5
ARI -1.5
44ARI [ 23 ]+3+4.5+5MIA
ARI		325
320		83
175		242
145		58
66		5.6
4.8		12.5
14.1		2
1		5
4
9/30ARI [ 24 ]MIA +4
ARI -4
39MIA [ 21 ]-3+1+6MIA
ARI		517
352		86
28		431
324		77
72		6.7
4.9		24.6
21.5		2
2		2
4

Performance
Cardinals
(9 games)		 Dolphins
(10 games)
0.5 (14)Win Percentage0.33 (22)
60 (10)ATS Win%33.33 (25)
55.56 (16)OU%33.33 (27)
25 (9)PPG16.33 (30)
23.6 (19)PPG Allowed22.44 (16)

Possession
Cardinals
(9 games)		 Dolphins
(10 games)
47.3 (31)Plays/game58.11 (7)
50.9 (6)Plays/game Allowed53.44 (8)
28.88 (25)Time of Possession (min)31.21 (11)
31.12 (24)Time of Possession Allowed28.79 (12)
2.39 (13)Avg. Time/Drive (min)2.4 (12)
2.65 (29)Avg. Time/Drive Allowed2.16 (9)

Downs
Cardinals
(9 games)		 Dolphins
(10 games)
19.5 (15)First Downs18.78 (20)
10.7 (32)Third Downs13 (11)
43.93 (6)Third Conv. Rate40.17 (11)
0.9 (26)Fourth Downs1.78 (8)
44.44 (24)Fourth Conv. Rate18.75 (32)

Yardage Overview
Cardinals
(9 games)		 Dolphins
(10 games)
336.5 (17)Total Yds334.44 (20)
334.4 (13)Total Yds Allowed317.11 (9)
30.72 (7)Avg. Yds/Drive24.63 (24)
31.38 (30)Avg. Yds/Drive Allowed23.52 (6)
7.11 (3)Avg. Yds/Play5.76 (22)
6.57 (26)Avg. Yds/Play Allowed5.93 (12)
2.5 (16)Sacks/game1.56 (30)
1.9 (6)Sacks Allowed2.56 (19)

Rushing
Cardinals
(9 games)		 Dolphins
(10 games)
145.2 (6)Rush Yds126.44 (11)
136 (26)Rush Yds Allowed114.44 (12)
5.24 (2)Yds/Carry4.28 (19)
4.71 (25)Yds/Carry Allowed4.4 (14)
50 (8)Run%48.6 (11)
48.3 (23)Run% Allowed46.1 (16)
1.4 (25)Fumbles1.67 (30)
1.2 (15)Fumbles Forced1 (23)

Receiving
Cardinals
(9 games)		 Dolphins
(10 games)
191.3 (28)Rec Yds208 (22)
198.4 (7)Rec Yds Allowed202.67 (8)
6.91 (19)Yds/Pass6.66 (21)
6.42 (5)Yds/Pass Allowed6.66 (9)
50 (25)Pass%51.4 (22)
51.7 (10)Pass% Allowed53.9 (17)
0.5 (8)Int Thrown0.56 (14)
0.3 (28)Int Forced0.56 (23)


Straight Up Records (SU)
TeamOverallHFHDAFAD+Rest-Rest
Cardinals 1h4-6-02-1-01-2-00-0-01-3-00-1-02-2-0
Cardinals 5-52-11-20-02-20-13-1
Dolphins 1h4-5-01-3-00-0-00-1-03-1-00-1-04-1-0
Dolphins 3-61-30-01-01-30-12-3

Against the Spread Records (ATS)
TeamOverallHFHDAFAD+Rest-Rest
Cardinals 1h4-6-02-1-01-2-00-0-01-3-00-1-02-2-0
Cardinals 6-4-02-1-01-2-00-0-03-1-00-1-03-1-0
Dolphins 1h4-5-01-3-00-0-00-1-03-1-00-1-04-1-0
Dolphins 3-6-00-4-00-0-01-0-02-2-00-1-03-2-0

Over/Under Records (OU)
TeamOverallHFHDAFAD+Rest-Rest
Cardinals 1h8-2-02-1-03-0-00-0-03-1-00-1-03-1-0
Cardinals 5-4-12-1-01-2-00-0-02-1-11-0-02-2-0
Dolphins 1h1-8-01-3-00-0-00-1-00-4-00-1-00-5-0
Dolphins 3-6-02-2-00-0-00-1-01-3-00-1-02-3-0

Team Total Records (TT)
TeamOverallHFHDAFAD+Rest-Rest
Cardinals 1h4-6-02-1-01-2-00-0-01-3-00-1-02-2-0
Cardinals 7-3-02-1-02-1-00-0-03-1-00-1-04-0-0
Dolphins 1h0-9-00-4-00-0-00-1-00-4-00-1-00-5-0
Dolphins 2-7-01-3-00-0-00-1-01-3-00-1-02-3-0

Opponent Team Total Records (OTT)
TeamOverallHFHDAFAD+Rest-Rest
Cardinals 1h5-5-01-2-02-1-00-0-02-2-01-0-01-3-0
Cardinals 5-5-01-2-01-2-00-0-03-1-01-0-02-2-0
Dolphins 1h4-5-03-1-00-0-00-1-01-3-01-0-00-5-0
Dolphins 5-4-03-1-00-0-00-1-02-2-01-0-02-3-0


ATS Range Records
TeamDog 10+Dog 7-10Dog 2.5-7Within 2.5Fav 2.5-7Fav 7-10Fav 10+
Cardinals0-0-0 (-)1-0-0 (100%)1-2-0 (33.3%)3-1-0 (75%)0-1-0 (0%)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)
Dolphins0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)2-2-0 (50%)1-0-0 (100%)0-4-0 (0%)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)