Cardinals @ Dolphins [ Dolphins -5 / 46.5 ]
Cardinals | 7-10 (41.2%)Dolphins | 8-9 (47.1%)
Our Baller Exclusive NFL base model is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions essentially look for teams that have over- or under-performed, in terms of points scored, relative to what would be expected based on their underlying metrics and who might be in for regression. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it can be a good place to start when thinking about a particular matchup.
Our model gives the Dolphins (-5) a 42.9% chance of covering as a favorite, and projects the game going over the total (46.5) around 58.2% of the time. While we factor in recent vs. season-long performance as well as home/away splits, we don't display those numbers here since the small sample can show some relatively large variance.
Rest Disadvantage
Short rest: 4 or 5 days
Rest Advantage
Lookahead: next game versus division rival
First game home off 2+ game road trip
| Home | Line | Total | Away | SU Margin | ATS Margin | OU Margin | |
| 9/14 | ARI | ARI -6.5 CAR +6.5 | 45.5 | CAR | - | - | - |
| 9/7 | NO [ 13 ] | ARI -5.5 NO +5.5 | 44.5 | ARI [ 20 ] | +7 | +1.5 | -11.5 |
| 1/5 | ARI [ 47 ] | ARI -5.5 SF +5.5 | 43.5 | SF [ 24 ] | +23 | +17.5 | +27.5 |
| 12/28 | LAR [ 13 ] | ARI +6.5 LAR -6.5 | 48 | ARI [ 9 ] | -4 | +2.5 | -26 |
| 12/22 | CAR [ 36 ] | ARI -5.5 CAR +5.5 | 47 | ARI [ 30 ] | -6 | -11.5 | +19 |
| 12/15 | ARI [ 30 ] | ARI -6 NE +6 | 46.5 | NE [ 17 ] | +13 | +7 | +0.5 |
| 12/8 | ARI [ 18 ] | ARI -3 SEA +3 | 45.5 | SEA [ 30 ] | -12 | -15 | +2.5 |
| 12/1 | MIN [ 23 ] | ARI +3.5 MIN -3.5 | 45.5 | ARI [ 22 ] | -1 | +2.5 | -0.5 |
| 11/24 | SEA [ 16 ] | ARI -1 SEA +1 | 47 | ARI [ 6 ] | -10 | -11 | -25 |
| 11/10 | ARI [ 31 ] | ARI +2 NYJ -2 | 46 | NYJ [ 6 ] | +25 | +27 | -9 |
| Home | Line | Total | Away | SU Margin | ATS Margin | OU Margin | |
| 9/14 | MIA | MIA -1.5 NE +1.5 | 44.5 | NE | - | - | - |
| 9/7 | IND [ 33 ] | MIA +1.5 IND -1.5 | 47 | MIA [ 8 ] | -25 | -23.5 | -6 |
| 1/5 | NYJ [ 32 ] | MIA +2.5 NYJ -2.5 | 39.5 | MIA [ 20 ] | -12 | -9.5 | +12.5 |
| 12/29 | CLE [ 3 ] | MIA -3 CLE +3 | 32.5 | MIA [ 20 ] | +17 | +14 | -9.5 |
| 12/22 | MIA [ 29 ] | MIA +2 SF -2 | 44 | SF [ 17 ] | +12 | +14 | +2 |
| 12/15 | HOU [ 20 ] | MIA +2.5 HOU -2.5 | 46.5 | MIA [ 12 ] | -8 | -5.5 | -14.5 |
| 12/8 | MIA [ 32 ] | MIA -6.5 NYJ +6.5 | 45 | NYJ [ 26 ] | +6 | -0.5 | +13 |
| 11/28 | GB [ 30 ] | MIA +3.5 GB -3.5 | 47.5 | MIA [ 17 ] | -13 | -9.5 | -0.5 |
| 11/24 | MIA [ 34 ] | MIA -7.5 NE +7.5 | 45.5 | NE [ 15 ] | +19 | +11.5 | +3.5 |
| 11/17 | MIA [ 34 ] | MIA -8 LV +8 | 43.5 | LV [ 19 ] | +15 | +7 | +9.5 |
| Home | Line | Total | Away | SU Margin | ATS Margin | OU Margin | Yds | Rush | Rec | Plays | Yds/Play | Yds/Pt | Int | Fum | ||
| 10/27 | MIA [ 27 ] | MIA -5 ARI +5 | 46.5 | ARI [ 28 ] | -1 | -6 | +8.5 | MIA ARI | 384 389 | 150 82 | 234 307 | 66 64 | 5.8 6.1 | 14.2 13.9 | 0 0 | 4 1 |
| Cardinals (36 games) |
Dolphins (35 games) |
|
| 0.34 (28) | Win Percentage | 0.53 (15) |
| 57.14 (7) | ATS Win% | 47.22 (22) |
| 55.88 (7) | OU% | 47.22 (19) |
| 21.77 (19) | PPG | 23.78 (11) |
| 24.66 (30) | PPG Allowed | 22.61 (18) |
| Cardinals (36 games) |
Dolphins (35 games) |
|
| 60.43 (27) | Plays/game | 62.25 (15) |
| 59.94 (5) | Plays/game Allowed | 61.5 (12) |
| 29.79 (20) | Time of Possession (min) | 30.6 (9) |
| 30.4 (19) | Time of Possession Allowed | 29.51 (9) |
| 2.57 (11) | Avg. Time/Drive (min) | 2.56 (12) |
| 2.66 (31) | Avg. Time/Drive Allowed | 2.43 (6) |
| Cardinals (36 games) |
Dolphins (35 games) |
|
| 19.97 (15) | First Downs | 20.25 (11) |
| 12.4 (27) | Third Downs | 12.11 (29) |
| 41.24 (11) | Third Conv. Rate | 38.53 (17) |
| 1.46 (13) | Fourth Downs | 1.78 (7) |
| 45.1 (30) | Fourth Conv. Rate | 46.87 (26) |
| Cardinals (36 games) |
Dolphins (35 games) |
|
| 354 (17) | Total Yds | 374.5 (5) |
| 360.86 (19) | Total Yds Allowed | 346.67 (9) |
| 31.28 (12) | Avg. Yds/Drive | 31.15 (14) |
| 32.59 (31) | Avg. Yds/Drive Allowed | 27.44 (4) |
| 5.86 (13) | Avg. Yds/Play | 6.02 (7) |
| 6.02 (29) | Avg. Yds/Play Allowed | 5.64 (13) |
| 2.17 (27) | Sacks/game | 2.56 (15) |
| 2.31 (15) | Sacks Allowed | 2.19 (13) |
| Cardinals (36 games) |
Dolphins (35 games) |
|
| 140.57 (3) | Rush Yds | 118.25 (12) |
| 136.43 (30) | Rush Yds Allowed | 103.22 (6) |
| 5.16 (2) | Yds/Carry | 4.56 (7) |
| 4.71 (29) | Yds/Carry Allowed | 4.07 (7) |
| 45.8 (12) | Run% | 43.2 (22) |
| 48.5 (29) | Run% Allowed | 43 (7) |
| 1.17 (14) | Fumbles | 1.47 (31) |
| 0.89 (29) | Fumbles Forced | 1 (25) |
| Cardinals (36 games) |
Dolphins (35 games) |
|
| 213.43 (27) | Rec Yds | 256.25 (7) |
| 224.43 (7) | Rec Yds Allowed | 243.44 (21) |
| 6.62 (26) | Yds/Pass | 7.52 (11) |
| 7.29 (20) | Yds/Pass Allowed | 7.24 (16) |
| 54.2 (21) | Pass% | 56.8 (11) |
| 51.5 (4) | Pass% Allowed | 57 (26) |
| 0.57 (7) | Int Thrown | 0.69 (17) |
| 0.66 (22) | Int Forced | 0.78 (12) |
| Team | Overall | HF | HD | AF | AD | +Rest | -Rest |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cardinals 1h | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 |
| Cardinals | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Dolphins 1h | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 |
| Dolphins | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Team | Overall | HF | HD | AF | AD | +Rest | -Rest |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cardinals 1h | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 |
| Cardinals | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 |
| Dolphins 1h | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 |
| Dolphins | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 |
| Team | Overall | HF | HD | AF | AD | +Rest | -Rest |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cardinals 1h | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 |
| Cardinals | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 |
| Dolphins 1h | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 |
| Dolphins | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 |
| Team | Overall | HF | HD | AF | AD | +Rest | -Rest |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cardinals 1h | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 |
| Cardinals | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 |
| Dolphins 1h | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 |
| Dolphins | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 |
| Team | Overall | HF | HD | AF | AD | +Rest | -Rest |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cardinals 1h | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 |
| Cardinals | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 |
| Dolphins 1h | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 |
| Dolphins | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 |
| Team | Dog 10+ | Dog 7-10 | Dog 2.5-7 | Within 2.5 | Fav 2.5-7 | Fav 7-10 | Fav 10+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cardinals | 2-3-0 (40%) | 2-2-0 (50%) | 4-3-0 (57.1%) | 1-0-0 (100%) | 0-0-0 (-) | 0-0-0 (-) | 0-0-0 (-) |
| Dolphins | 0-0-0 (-) | 0-0-0 (-) | 1-5-0 (16.7%) | 2-1-0 (66.7%) | 1-0-0 (100%) | 4-0-0 (100%) | 2-2-0 (50%) |