Bucks @ Grizzlies [ Grizzlies +6.5 / 230.5 ]

Bucks | 1-3 (25%)
Grizzlies | 2-3 (40%)

Our Baller Exclusive NBA base model is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions take into consideration stats like offensive rating, defensive rating, pace, and a variety of other factors that we feel are important in making up a team's numeric profile. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it is a good place to start when thinking ahout a particular matchup.

Our modell will run after the first two weeks of the season.

Bucks Situational Notes
Rest advantage
Well-rested (two or more days of rest)

Baller Systems
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Grizzlies Situational Notes
Coming off a loss as a favorite (bounce back)
4th game in 6 nights
2nd game of a back-to-back
5th game in 7 nights
3rd game in 4 nights

Bucks Schedule
Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
11/2MILMIL -2
CLE +2
230.5CLE---
10/31MEMMIL -6.5
MEM +6.5
230.5MIL---
10/28BOS [ 119 ]MIL +9
BOS -9
232MIL [ 108 ]-11-2-5
10/27BKN [ 115 ]MIL -8.5
BKN +8.5
228MIL [ 102 ]-13-21.5-11
10/25MIL [ 122 ]MIL -9.5
CHI +9.5
234CHI [ 133 ]-11-20.5+21
10/23PHI [ 109 ]MIL -4.5
PHI +4.5
222MIL [ 124 ]+15+10.5+11
5/2IND [ 120 ]MIL +6
IND -6
218MIL [ 98 ]-22-160
4/30MIL [ 115 ]MIL +4
IND -4
215IND [ 92 ]+23+27-8
4/28IND [ 126 ]MIL +10
IND -10
214.5MIL [ 113 ]-13-3+24.5
4/26IND [ 121 ]MIL +6.5
IND -6.5
224MIL [ 118 ]-3+3.5+15
Grizzlies Schedule
Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
11/2PHIMEM -1
PHI +1
222.5MEM---
10/31MEMMEM +6.5
MIL -6.5
230.5MIL---
10/30MEM [ 106 ]MEM -12
BKN +12
226BKN [ 119 ]-13-25-1
10/28MEM [ 123 ]MEM -5.5
CHI +5.5
232CHI [ 126 ]-3-8.5+17
10/26MEM [ 124 ]MEM -1
ORL +1
222ORL [ 111 ]+13+12+13
10/25HOU [ 128 ]MEM +3.5
HOU -3.5
226.5MEM [ 108 ]-20-16.5+9.5
10/23UTA [ 124 ]MEM -2.5
UTA +2.5
229MEM [ 126 ]+2-0.5+21
4/14MEM [ 111 ]MEM +14
DEN -14
216.5DEN [ 126 ]-15-1+20.5
4/12MEM [ 120 ]MEM +16
LAL -16
226LAL [ 123 ]-3+13+17
4/10CLE [ 110 ]MEM +18.5
CLE -18.5
213.5MEM [ 98 ]-12+6.5-5.5
Historical Matchups
Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU MarginPaceOrtgDrtgNetTot
2/2MIL-
-		-MEM----
-
-
-
-
10/31MEMMEM +6.5
MIL -6.5
230.5MIL----
-
-
-
-
4/3MIL [ 101 ]MEM +13.5
MIL -13.5
222MEM [ 111 ]+10+23.5-1093.8
118.3
107.6
10.7
212
2/15MEM [ 113 ]MEM +14
MIL -14
223.5MIL [ 110 ]+3+17-0.598.7
114.5
111.4
3
223
4/7MIL [ 114 ]MEM -9
MIL +9
231MEM [ 137 ]+23+14+20100.3
136.6
113.6
22.9
251
12/15MEM [ 142 ]MEM -3
MIL +3
226.5MIL [ 101 ]+41+38+16.5101.7
139.6
99.3
40.3
243
3/26MEM [ 127 ]MEM -2
MIL +2
233MIL [ 102 ]+25+23-4100.8
126
101.2
24.8
229
1/19MIL [ 126 ]MEM +6.5
MIL -6.5
229MEM [ 114 ]-12-5.5+11106.3
107.2
118.5
-11.3
240
4/17MIL [ 115 ]MEM +8.5
MIL -8.5
237.5MEM [ 128 ]+13+21.5+5.5101.9
125.6
112.9
12.8
243
3/4MEM [ 111 ]MEM +6
MIL -6
236MIL [ 112 ]-1+5-13104.2
106.5
107.5
-1
223
8/13MEM [ 119 ]MEM -4
MIL +4
231MIL [ 106 ]+13+9-6109.7
108.5
96.7
11.9
225

Efficiency
Bucks
(4 games)		 Grizzlies
(5 games)
0.33 (25)Win Percentage0.58 (10)
25 (26)ATS Win%20 (28)
50 (22)OU%80 (4)
-Strength of Schedule-
111.22 (20)Offensive Rating116.62 (7)
113.73 (15)Defensive Rating108.76 (7)
98.94 (17)Pace103.82 (3)
1.59 (20)A/TO Ratio1.77 (11)

Four Factors
Bucks
(4 games)		 Grizzlies
(5 games)
54.44 (10)EFG%56.04 (7)
53.81 (20)EFG% Allowed51.88 (9)
26.81 (18)FT Rate28.41 (13)
23.05 (10)FT Rate Allowed27.98 (15)
19.77 (27)OReb%27.65 (11)
22.39 (8)OReb% Allowed24.69 (14)
13.94 (11)TO Rate16.45 (21)
13.53 (22)TO Rate Forced15.41 (13)

Scoring
Bucks
(4 games)		 Grizzlies
(5 games)
111 (22)PPG121.08 (3)
113.5 (18)PPG Allowed112.92 (16)
18.58 (11)Pts off TO18.92 (9)
18 (16)Pts off TO Allowed20.58 (20)
12.58 (23)2nd Chance Pts16.33 (12)
13.17 (6)2nd Chance Pts Allowed14.58 (12)
14.42 (18)Fast Break Pts18.5 (7)
16.25 (22)Fast Break Pts Allowed15.83 (20)

Inside the Arc
Bucks
(4 games)		 Grizzlies
(5 games)
38 (24)Paint Attempts50.17 (3)
41 (10)Paint Attempts Allowed41.92 (13)
60.53 (5)Paint FG%59.3 (7)
52.64 (9)Paint FG% Allowed54.67 (15)
11.33 (6)Mid-Range Attempts5.67 (29)
9.25 (20)Mid-Range Attempts Allowed7.25 (8)
0.41 (12)Mid-Range FG%0.37 (16)
0.45 (24)Mid-Range FG% Allowed0.36 (15)

Three Point Shooting
Bucks
(4 games)		 Grizzlies
(5 games)
8.33 (19)Corner 3 Attempts8.92 (18)
10.33 (23)Corner 3 Attempts Allowed7.67 (10)
48 (2)Corner 3 FG%28.97 (26)
43.55 (25)Corner 3 FG% Allowed29.35 (5)
27.5 (13)ATB3 Attempts26.58 (16)
28.83 (22)ATB3 Attempts Allowed33.67 (28)
32.42 (23)ATB3 FG%36.99 (13)
36.42 (19)ATB3 FG% Allowed36.14 (14)


Straight Up Records (SU)
TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Bucks 1h3-1-01-0-00-0-01-1-01-0-00-1-01-0-00-0-01-0-0
Bucks 1-30-10-01-10-10-10-10-00-1
Grizzlies 1h4-1-02-1-00-0-01-0-01-0-01-1-01-0-00-1-00-0-0
Grizzlies 2-31-20-01-00-10-21-00-10-0

Against the Spread Records (ATS)
TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Bucks 1h2-2-00-1-00-0-01-1-01-0-00-1-01-0-00-0-01-0-0
Bucks 1-3-00-1-00-0-01-1-00-1-00-1-00-1-00-0-00-1-0
Grizzlies 1h4-1-02-1-00-0-01-0-01-0-01-1-01-0-00-1-00-0-0
Grizzlies 1-4-01-2-00-0-00-1-00-1-00-2-01-0-00-1-00-0-0

Over/Under Records (OU)
TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Bucks 1h1-3-01-0-00-0-00-2-00-1-00-1-00-1-00-0-00-1-0
Bucks 2-2-01-0-00-0-01-1-00-1-00-1-00-1-00-0-00-1-0
Grizzlies 1h3-2-02-1-00-0-00-1-01-0-02-0-00-1-01-0-00-0-0
Grizzlies 4-1-02-1-00-0-01-0-01-0-01-1-01-0-00-1-00-0-0

Team Total Records (TT)
TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Bucks 1h2-2-01-0-00-0-01-1-00-1-00-1-00-1-00-0-00-1-0
Bucks 2-2-01-0-00-0-01-1-00-1-00-1-00-1-00-0-00-1-0
Grizzlies 1h5-0-03-0-00-0-01-0-01-0-02-0-01-0-01-0-00-0-0
Grizzlies 3-2-02-1-00-0-01-0-00-1-00-2-01-0-00-1-00-0-0

Opponent Team Total Records (OTT)
TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Bucks 1h1-3-01-0-00-0-00-2-00-1-00-1-00-1-00-0-00-1-0
Bucks 3-1-01-0-00-0-02-0-00-1-01-0-00-1-00-0-00-1-0
Grizzlies 1h2-3-01-2-00-0-00-1-01-0-02-0-00-1-01-0-00-0-0
Grizzlies 5-0-03-0-00-0-01-0-01-0-02-0-01-0-01-0-00-0-0


ATS Range Records
TeamDog 10+Dog 7-10Dog 2.5-7Within 2.5Fav 2.5-7Fav 7-10Fav 10+
Bucks0-0-0 (-)0-1-0 (0%)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)1-0-0 (100%)0-2-0 (0%)0-0-0 (-)
Grizzlies0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-1-0 (0%)1-0-0 (100%)0-2-0 (0%)0-0-0 (-)0-1-0 (0%)