Bucks @ Grizzlies [ Grizzlies +6.5 / 230.5 ]

Bucks | 1-3 (25%)
Grizzlies | 2-3 (40%)

Our Baller Exclusive NBA base model is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions take into consideration stats like offensive rating, defensive rating, pace, and a variety of other factors that we feel are important in making up a team's numeric profile. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it is a good place to start when thinking about a particular matchup.

Our modell will run after the first two weeks of the season.

Bucks Situational Notes
Rest advantage
Well-rested (two or more days of rest)

Baller Systems
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Grizzlies Situational Notes
Coming off a loss as a favorite (bounce back)
4th game in 6 nights
2nd game of a back-to-back
5th game in 7 nights
3rd game in 4 nights

Bucks Schedule
Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
11/2MILMIL -2
CLE +2
230.5CLE---
10/31MEMMIL -6.5
MEM +6.5
230.5MIL---
10/28BOS [ 119 ]MIL +9
BOS -9
232MIL [ 108 ]-11-2-5
10/27BKN [ 115 ]MIL -8.5
BKN +8.5
228MIL [ 102 ]-13-21.5-11
10/25MIL [ 122 ]MIL -9.5
CHI +9.5
234CHI [ 133 ]-11-20.5+21
10/23PHI [ 109 ]MIL -4.5
PHI +4.5
222MIL [ 124 ]+15+10.5+11
5/2IND [ 120 ]MIL +6
IND -6
218MIL [ 98 ]-22-160
4/30MIL [ 115 ]MIL +4
IND -4
215IND [ 92 ]+23+27-8
4/28IND [ 126 ]MIL +10
IND -10
214.5MIL [ 113 ]-13-3+24.5
4/26IND [ 121 ]MIL +6.5
IND -6.5
224MIL [ 118 ]-3+3.5+15
Grizzlies Schedule
Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
11/2PHIMEM -1
PHI +1
222.5MEM---
10/31MEMMEM +6.5
MIL -6.5
230.5MIL---
10/30MEM [ 106 ]MEM -12
BKN +12
226BKN [ 119 ]-13-25-1
10/28MEM [ 123 ]MEM -5.5
CHI +5.5
232CHI [ 126 ]-3-8.5+17
10/26MEM [ 124 ]MEM -1
ORL +1
222ORL [ 111 ]+13+12+13
10/25HOU [ 128 ]MEM +3.5
HOU -3.5
226.5MEM [ 108 ]-20-16.5+9.5
10/23UTA [ 124 ]MEM -2.5
UTA +2.5
229MEM [ 126 ]+2-0.5+21
4/14MEM [ 111 ]MEM +14
DEN -14
216.5DEN [ 126 ]-15-1+20.5
4/12MEM [ 120 ]MEM +16
LAL -16
226LAL [ 123 ]-3+13+17
4/10CLE [ 110 ]MEM +18.5
CLE -18.5
213.5MEM [ 98 ]-12+6.5-5.5
Historical Matchups
Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU MarginPaceOrtgDrtgNetTot
2/2MILMEM +4
MIL -4
248.5MEM----
-
-
-
-
10/31MEMMEM +6.5
MIL -6.5
230.5MIL----
-
-
-
-
4/3MIL [ 101 ]MEM +13.5
MIL -13.5
222MEM [ 111 ]+10+23.5-1093.8
118.3
107.6
10.7
212
2/15MEM [ 113 ]MEM +14
MIL -14
223.5MIL [ 110 ]+3+17-0.598.7
114.5
111.4
3
223
4/7MIL [ 114 ]MEM -9
MIL +9
231MEM [ 137 ]+23+14+20100.3
136.6
113.6
22.9
251
12/15MEM [ 142 ]MEM -3
MIL +3
226.5MIL [ 101 ]+41+38+16.5101.7
139.6
99.3
40.3
243
3/26MEM [ 127 ]MEM -2
MIL +2
233MIL [ 102 ]+25+23-4100.8
126
101.2
24.8
229
1/19MIL [ 126 ]MEM +6.5
MIL -6.5
229MEM [ 114 ]-12-5.5+11106.3
107.2
118.5
-11.3
240
4/17MIL [ 115 ]MEM +8.5
MIL -8.5
237.5MEM [ 128 ]+13+21.5+5.5101.9
125.6
112.9
12.8
243
3/4MEM [ 111 ]MEM +6
MIL -6
236MIL [ 112 ]-1+5-13104.2
106.5
107.5
-1
223
8/13MEM [ 119 ]MEM -4
MIL +4
231MIL [ 106 ]+13+9-6109.7
108.5
96.7
11.9
225

Efficiency
Bucks
(4 game/s)		 Grizzlies
(5 game/s)
0.25 (25)Win Percentage0.4 (19)
0.25 (22)ATS Win%0.2 (27)
0.5 (14)OU%0.8 (2)
-Strength of Schedule-
111.57 (20)Offensive Rating112.42 (18)
117.02 (22)Defensive Rating117.86 (23)
101.94 (6)Pace103.8 (3)
1.39 (24)A/TO Ratio1.88 (9)

Four Factors
Bucks
(4 game/s)		 Grizzlies
(5 game/s)
55.47 (9)EFG%53.7 (13)
53.9 (19)EFG% Allowed55.11 (22)
35.87 (3)FT Rate29.13 (12)
24.73 (11)FT Rate Allowed33.56 (25)
18.34 (28)OReb%27.04 (12)
22.11 (6)OReb% Allowed29.69 (27)
15.66 (18)TO Rate15.7 (19)
11.31 (29)TO Rate Forced16.09 (10)

Scoring
Bucks
(4 game/s)		 Grizzlies
(5 game/s)
114 (14)PPG117.4 (8)
119 (24)PPG Allowed121.6 (27)
15.25 (25)Pts off TO18.6 (10)
20.75 (21)Pts off TO Allowed22 (27)
12.25 (23)2nd Chance Pts17.6 (7)
14.75 (13)2nd Chance Pts Allowed17.6 (27)
9.25 (29)Fast Break Pts16.2 (12)
15.5 (20)Fast Break Pts Allowed12.4 (6)

Inside the Arc
Bucks
(4 game/s)		 Grizzlies
(5 game/s)
34.5 (28)Paint Attempts51.2 (3)
38.5 (5)Paint Attempts Allowed39.8 (10)
62.32 (3)Paint FG%55.47 (15)
52.6 (9)Paint FG% Allowed55.28 (17)
12.5 (3)Mid-Range Attempts5.4 (29)
12 (30)Mid-Range Attempts Allowed8 (14)
52 (3)Mid-Range FG%44.44 (9)
52.08 (26)Mid-Range FG% Allowed30 (6)

Three Point Shooting
Bucks
(4 game/s)		 Grizzlies
(5 game/s)
6.25 (25)Corner 3 Attempts10.4 (10)
10 (22)Corner 3 Attempts Allowed8.2 (11)
56 (1)Corner 3 FG%26.92 (28)
40 (20)Corner 3 FG% Allowed43.9 (26)
29 (11)ATB3 Attempts24.8 (19)
32.5 (27)ATB3 Attempts Allowed33.6 (28)
28.45 (28)ATB3 FG%38.71 (8)
36.15 (15)ATB3 FG% Allowed39.29 (26)


Straight Up Records (SU)
TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Bucks 1h3-1-01-0-0--1-1-01-0-00-1-01-0-0--1-0-0
Bucks 1-30-1-1-10-10-10-1-0-1
Grizzlies 1h4-1-02-1-0--1-0-01-0-01-1-01-0-00-1-0--
Grizzlies 2-31-2-1-00-10-21-00-1-

Against the Spread Records (ATS)
TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Bucks 1h2-2-00-1-0--1-1-01-0-00-1-01-0-0--1-0-0
Bucks 1-3-00-1-0--1-1-00-1-00-1-00-1-0--0-1-0
Grizzlies 1h4-1-02-1-0--1-0-01-0-01-1-01-0-00-1-0--
Grizzlies 1-4-01-2-0--0-1-00-1-00-2-01-0-00-1-0--

Over/Under Records (OU)
TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Bucks 1h1-3-01-0-0--0-2-00-1-00-1-00-1-0--0-1-0
Bucks 2-2-01-0-0--1-1-00-1-00-1-00-1-0--0-1-0
Grizzlies 1h3-2-02-1-0--0-1-01-0-02-0-00-1-01-0-0--
Grizzlies 4-1-02-1-0--1-0-01-0-01-1-01-0-00-1-0--

Team Total Records (TT)
TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Bucks 1h2-2-01-0-0--1-1-00-1-00-1-00-1-0--0-1-0
Bucks 2-2-01-0-0--1-1-00-1-00-1-00-1-0--0-1-0
Grizzlies 1h5-0-03-0-0--1-0-01-0-02-0-01-0-01-0-0--
Grizzlies 3-2-02-1-0--1-0-00-1-00-2-01-0-00-1-0--

Opponent Team Total Records (OTT)
TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Bucks 1h1-3-01-0-0--0-2-00-1-00-1-00-1-0--0-1-0
Bucks 3-1-01-0-0--2-0-00-1-01-0-00-1-0--0-1-0
Grizzlies 1h2-3-01-2-0--0-1-01-0-02-0-00-1-01-0-0--
Grizzlies 5-0-03-0-0--1-0-01-0-02-0-01-0-01-0-0--


ATS Range Records
TeamDog 10+Dog 7-10Dog 2.5-7Within 2.5Fav 2.5-7Fav 7-10Fav 10+
Bucks0-0-0 (-)0-1-0 (0%)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)1-0-0 (100%)0-2-0 (0%)0-0-0 (-)
Grizzlies0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-1-0 (0%)1-0-0 (100%)0-2-0 (0%)0-0-0 (-)0-1-0 (0%)