MLB Game Matchups & Analysis

12:40 p.m.
San Diego Padres @ Cincinnati Reds

Padres: 75-68 (52.4%) | Casey Mize (R): 8-13 (38.1%) | Market Rating: +2.3% (-109)

Reds: 69-74 (48.3%) | Brandon Williamson (L): 3-3 (50.0%) | Market Rating: -3.8% (+116)

Line: +129

Total: 9.5

Open: +122

Open: 9.5

Injury Report Sep 2, 1:12 PM ET SD9 Out CIN6 Out1 Questionable

Player	PA/G · G	Status	Reason
Bryan Hoeing	7 G ’25	Out	The Padres transferred Hoeing (elbow) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Wednesday.
Gavin Sheets	3.4 PA/G	Out	San Diego placed Sheets on the 10-day injured list Sunday with a left foot sprain.
Jason Adam	36 G	Out	Adam (shoulder) played light catch from 90 feet Monday, AJ Cassavell of MLB.com reports.
Jeremiah Estrada	33 G	Out	The Padres placed Estrada on the 15-day injured list Wednesday due to a right shoulder impingement.
Lucas Giolito	7 G	Out	Giolito (elbow) has been throwing at the Padres' team complex in Arizona, but his timeline to return is unclear, MLB.com reports.
Luis Rengifo	3.7 PA/G	Out	The Padres placed Rengifo (knee) on the 60-day injured list Tuesday.
Miguel Andujar	3.5 PA/G	Out	The Padres announced Monday that Andujar (wrist) has been cleared to begin a swing progression, Jeff Sanders of The San Diego Union-Tribune reports.
Nick Pivetta	4 G	Out	Pivetta (forearm) struck out seven and allowed two hits and one walk over 4.1 scoreless innings in a rehab start with Triple-A El Paso on Sunday.
Ramon Laureano	3.8 PA/G	Out	Laureano underwent surgery Friday to repair his torn right labrum, Kevin Acee of The San Diego Union-Tribune reports.

Not in rotation (under 2.0 PA/G and fewer than 3 G pitched): Joe Musgrove

CIN

Player	PA/G · G	Status	Reason
Blake Dunn	4.4 PA/G	Out	The Reds transferred Dunn (elbow) from the 10-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Thursday.
Graham Ashcraft	25 G	Out	Ashcraft (elbow) allowed one hit and one walk while striking out two over a scoreless inning for Triple-A Louisville on Tuesday.
Hunter Greene	5 G	Out	Greene (elbow) will be out for 12-to-18 months after undergoing his second Tommy John surgery Wednesday, Gordon Wittenmyer of The Cincinnati Enquirer reports.
Ke'Bryan Hayes	3.2 PA/G	Out	Cincinnati placed Hayes (groin) on the 10-day injured list Friday, retroactive to Aug. 27.
Michael Toglia	3.1 PA/G	Out	Reds manager Terry Francona said Monday that Toglia will undergo season-ending surgery to repair a torn labrum in his right shoulder, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports.
Spencer Steer	3.9 PA/G	Out	Steer (wrist) may not return before the end of the season, Patrick Brown of MLB.com reports.
Eugenio Suarez	4.0 PA/G	Questionable	Suarez went 1-for-2 with a walk and a two-run home run in Saturday's 17-5 loss to the Cubs.

PA/G = plate appearances per game played this season (hitters). G = games pitched this season (pitchers). ’25 = last season's figure (player hasn't appeared yet this season). Players under 2.0 PA/G and fewer than 3 G pitched in both seasons are listed under “Not in rotation.”

Notes

Padres

Situational Factor(s)

Game off giving up a walk-off win

Baller System(s)

Medium favorite with in-series revenge

Reds

Situational Factor(s)

Game off a walk-off win

Baller Index Our Exclusive MLB Baller Index is a dynamic tool that adapts to MLB's latest trends, dynamically adjusting each team’s Starting Pitcher, Bullpen, and Team Batting ratings based on current performances and historical data. It factors in current form—reflecting recent player and team performances—and accounts for positive or negative regression to balance out extreme fluctuations. To find an edge, compare our Matchup Rating System with the game line to identify discrepancies that could signal a betting opportunity. Regular season only.

Padres

C. Mize	2/4
Bullpen:	2/3
Team Batting:	3/3
Matchup:	+6 Est. fair odds: -215 to -246 Implied win prob: 68.25% to 71.10%

Reds

B. Williamson	0/4
Bullpen:	1/3
Team Batting:	0/3
Matchup:	-6 Est. fair odds: +215 to +246 Implied win prob: 28.90% to 31.75%

Regression Analysis The Regression Analysis section is a strictly rule-based analysis designed to simplify and interpret what the data indicates. This section identifies potential regression signals and organizes them into a clear breakdown for each side. The goal isn't to tell you what to bet—it's to provide context.

By translating the data into plain language, this can help you understand how regression and matchup factors interact. These signals highlight tendencies, not guarantees, and are most effective when used alongside the rest of the matchup page for full context.

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Team Comparison Stats Loading...

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Records

Starting Pitchers Recent Performance

Casey Mize Last 5 Starts

	H	A	Line	Total	IP	K	BB	Hits	HR	ER	Runs	Opp Starter
8/28	TBR [ 9 ]	SDP [ 4 ]	+110	7.5	5	1	1	6	1	2	7	Shane McClanahan (L)
8/22	SDP [ 7 ]	MIN [ 5 ]	-139	8	2.67	0	1	4	3	4	4	Dean Kremer (R)
8/16	CLE [ 0 ]	SDP [ 5 ]	-111	8	6	3	1	3	0	0	0	Tanner Bibee (R)
8/10	SDP [ 3 ]	MIL [ 2 ]	+109	7	6	6	2	5	1	2	2	Logan Henderson (R)
8/5	ARI [ 10 ]	SDP [ 4 ]	-136	8.5	3.33	1	3	9	1	8	8	Mitch Bratt (L)
Averages:					4.6	2.2	1.6	5.4	1.2	3.2	4.2

Brandon Williamson Last 5 Starts

	H	A	Line	Total	IP	K	BB	Hits	HR	ER	Runs	Opp Starter
4/29	CIN [ 2 ]	COL [ 13 ]	-150	9.5	3	4	4	4	0	4	4	Tomoyuki Sugano (R)
4/22	TBR [ 6 ]	CIN [ 1 ]	+110	8.5	4.33	3	3	7	1	5	5	Nick Martinez (R)
4/17	MIN [ 1 ]	CIN [ 2 ]	+131	-	5.33	2	4	3	0	1	1	Joe Ryan (R)
4/11	CIN [ 7 ]	LAA [ 3 ]	-120	9	4	3	6	3	0	3	3	George Klassen (R)
4/6	MIA [ 0 ]	CIN [ 2 ]	+127	8	6.67	4	1	3	0	0	0	Janson Junk (R)
Averages:					4.67	3.2	3.6	4	0.2	2.6	2.6

Bullpen Usage (Last 3 Days)

SDP Bullpen — Last 3 Days

Pitcher	8/30	8/31	9/1	App	IP	K	BB	H	ER
Bradgley Rodriguez	1.0	·	1.1	2	2.1	2	0	1	0
Yuki Matsui	1.0	·	1.0	2	2.0	4	2	0	0
Kyle Hart	·	2.0	·	1	2.0	4	1	0	0
Adrian Morejon	1.0	·	0.2	2	1.2	1	2	2	2
Mason Miller	1.0	·	·	1	1.0	2	0	2	2
Wandy Peralta	·	1.0	·	1	1.0	1	0	1	0
David Morgan	0.1	·	0.1	2	0.2	1	1	2	1
Team Totals (7 arms used):				11	9.5	15	6	8	5

CIN Bullpen — Last 3 Days

Pitcher	8/30	8/31	9/1	App	IP	K	BB	H	ER
Brock Burke	1.1	·	1.0	2	2.1	4	1	2	0
Emilio Pagan	1.0	·	1.0	2	2.0	1	0	2	2
Luis Mey	1.0	·	1.0	2	2.0	2	1	1	1
Julian Garcia	·	1.2	·	1	1.2	3	0	0	0
Pierce Johnson	·	1.0	·	1	1.0	0	0	3	1
Tejay Antone	·	1.0	·	1	1.0	2	0	1	0
Tony Santillan	·	1.0	·	1	1.0	0	0	1	0
Team Totals (7 arms used):				10	10.3	12	2	10	4

Schedules

Padres Schedule

Date	Season	Team Starter	Runs	Site	Opponent Starter	Opp Runs	Line	Total
09/05/26	2026	Padres Robbie Ray (L)	-	home	Yankees	-	-	-
09/04/26	2026	Padres Walker Buehler (R)	-	home	Yankees TBD	-	-	-
09/02/26	2026	Padres Casey Mize (R)	-	away	Reds Brandon Williamson (L)	-	-142	9.5
09/01/26	2026	Padres Randy Vasquez (R)	3	away	Reds Nick Lodolo (L)	4	-137	9.0
08/31/26	2026	Padres Michael King (R)	5	away	Reds Brady Singer (R)	0	-149	9.0
08/30/26	2026	Padres Robbie Ray (L)	4	away	Rays Drew Rasmussen (R)	5	+143	7.0
08/29/26	2026	Padres Walker Buehler (R)	6	away	Rays Nick Martinez (R)	7	+115	8.0
08/28/26	2026	Padres Casey Mize (R)	4	away	Rays Shane McClanahan (L)	9	+110	7.5
08/26/26	2026	Padres Randy Vasquez (R)	3	home	Pirates Bubba Chandler (R)	0	-138	8.5
08/25/26	2026	Padres Michael King (R)	0	home	Pirates Paul Skenes (R)	1	-131	7.0
08/24/26	2026	Padres Robbie Ray (L)	2	home	Pirates Braxton Ashcraft (R)	3	-116	7.5
08/23/26	2026	Padres Walker Buehler (R)	8	home	Twins Bailey Ober (R)	1	-152	8.5
08/22/26	2026	Padres Casey Mize (R)	7	home	Twins Dean Kremer (R)	5	-139	8.0
Away Games Avg (5 games)			4.4	-	-	5.0	-102	8.1
All Games Avg (10 games)			4.2	-	-	3.5	-117	8.0

Reds Schedule

Date	Season	Team Starter	Runs	Site	Opponent Starter	Opp Runs	Line	Total
09/05/26	2026	Reds	-	home	Brewers	-	-	-
09/04/26	2026	Reds Andrew Abbott (L)	-	home	Brewers TBD	-	-	-
09/02/26	2026	Reds Brandon Williamson (L)	-	home	Padres Casey Mize (R)	-	+122	9.5
09/01/26	2026	Reds Nick Lodolo (L)	4	home	Padres Randy Vasquez (R)	3	+117	9.0
08/31/26	2026	Reds Brady Singer (R)	0	home	Padres Michael King (R)	5	+132	9.0
08/30/26	2026	Reds Chase Burns (R)	7	away	Cubs Shota Imanaga (L)	5	+137	9.0
08/29/26	2026	Reds Andrew Abbott (L)	5	away	Cubs Kevin Gausman (R)	17	+185	9.5
08/28/26	2026	Reds Rhett Lowder (R)	10	away	Cubs David Peterson (L)	8	+174	8.5
08/26/26	2026	Reds Nick Lodolo (L)	10	away	Giants Logan Webb (R)	9	+105	7.0
08/25/26	2026	Reds Brady Singer (R)	1	away	Giants Adrian Houser (R)	3	-105	7.5
08/24/26	2026	Reds Chase Burns (R)	0	away	Giants Carson Whisenhunt (L)	5	-173	7.5
08/23/26	2026	Reds Andrew Abbott (L)	3	away	Diamondbacks Mitch Bratt (L)	5	+124	8.5
08/22/26	2026	Reds Rhett Lowder (R)	11	away	Diamondbacks Michael Soroka (R)	5	+169	8.0
Home Games Avg (2 games)			2.0	-	-	4.0	+124	9.0
All Games Avg (10 games)			5.1	-	-	6.5	+123	8.4

Notable Trends

The Reds are 28.6% (2-5) (L30 days) on the moneyline as a home dog

The Padres are 16.7% (1-5) (L30 days) to the over/under as an away fav

View All Records

Reds (Home)

The Reds are 48.3% (69-74) on the moneyline

The Reds are 38.2% (13-21) on the moneyline as a home dog

The Reds are 53.3% (72-63-4) to the over/under

The Reds are 39.4% (13-20-1) to the over/under as a home dog

The Reds are 46.4% (13-15) (L30 days) on the moneyline

The Reds are 28.6% (2-5) (L30 days) on the moneyline as a home dog

The Reds are 53.8% (14-12-2) (L30 days) to the over/under

The Reds are 33.3% (2-4-1) (L30 days) to the over/under as a home dog

Padres (Away)

The Padres are 52.4% (75-68) on the moneyline

The Padres are 50% (8-8) on the moneyline as an away fav

The Padres are 44.9% (61-75-4) to the over/under

The Padres are 31.3% (5-11) to the over/under as an away fav

The Padres are 55.6% (15-12) (L30 days) on the moneyline

The Padres are 50% (3-3) (L30 days) on the moneyline as an away fav

The Padres are 40% (10-15-2) (L30 days) to the over/under

The Padres are 16.7% (1-5) (L30 days) to the over/under as an away fav

Past Matchups (Last 7)

Date	Season	Team Starter	Runs	Site	Opponent Starter	Opp Runs	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
09/01/26	2026	Reds Nick Lodolo (L)	4	Home	Padres Randy Vasquez (R)	3	+117	9.0	-1	7
08/31/26	2026	Reds Brady Singer (R)	0	Home	Padres Michael King (R)	5	+132	9.0	+5	5
06/10/26	2026	Reds Brady Singer (R)	4	Away	Padres Michael King (R)	5	+138	8.5	+1	9
06/09/26	2026	Reds Chase Burns (R)	5	Away	Padres Lucas Giolito (R)	3	-135	7.5	-2	8
06/08/26	2026	Reds Andrew Abbott (L)	2	Away	Padres Walker Buehler (R)	6	+115	7.5	+4	8
09/10/25	2025	Reds Andrew Abbott (L)	2	Away	Padres Nick Pivetta (R)	1	+142	7.5	-1	3
09/09/25	2025	Reds Zack Littell (R)	4	Away	Padres Michael King (R)	2	+164	7.5	-2	6
Reds as Home (2 games)			2.0	-	-	4.0	+124	9.0	+2.0	6.0
All Games Avg (7 games)			3.0	-	-	3.6	+123	8.1	+0.6	6.6

MLB Game Matchups & Analysis

12:40 p.m. San Diego Padres @ Cincinnati Reds window.TMB_PAGE_CONTEXT = { page: 'matchup', sport: "mlb", away_team: "San Diego Padres", home_team: "Cincinnati Reds", game_date: "2026-09-02" };

Injury Report Sep 2, 1:12 PM ET SD9 Out CIN6 Out1 Questionable

Notes

Padres

Situational Factor(s)

Baller System(s)

Reds

Situational Factor(s)

Padres

Reds

Team Comparison Stats Loading...

Records

Starting Pitchers Recent Performance

Bullpen Usage (Last 3 Days)

Schedules

Padres Schedule

Reds Schedule

Notable Trends

View All Records

Reds (Home)

Padres (Away)

Past Matchups (Last 7)

12:40 p.m.
San Diego Padres @ Cincinnati Reds