MLB Game Matchups & Analysis

6:35 p.m.
Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles

Guardians: 74-74 (50.0%) | Tanner Bibee (R): 8-21 (27.6%) | Market Rating: +1.6% (-107)

Orioles: 72-78 (48.0%) | Brandon Young (R): 19-7 (73.1%) | Market Rating: -0.1% (+100)

Line: -120

Total: 8

Open: -125

Open: 8.5

Injury Report as of Sep 8, 7:11 PM ET CLE3 Out1 Questionable BAL5 Out

CLE

Player	PA/G · G	Status	Reason
Colin Holderman	52 G	Out	The Guardians placed Holderman on the 15-day injured list Friday with right wrist inflammation, Tim Stebbins of MLB.com reports.
Rhys Hoskins	3.3 PA/G	Out	Hoskins (back) is feeling better but has not yet resumed baseball activity, MLB.com reports.
Shawn Armstrong	35 G	Out	Armstrong (calf) threw a bullpen session Friday, Tim Stebbins of MLB.com reports.
Chase DeLauter	4.1 PA/G	Questionable	DeLauter (wrist) is absent from the lineup for Tuesday's tilt in Baltimore.

BAL

Player	PA/G · G	Status	Reason
Christian Franklin	2.8 PA/G	Out	Franklin (hand) has begun a hitting progression, Jake Rill of MLB.com reports.
Luis Robert Jr.	3.8 PA/G	Out	The Orioles placed Robert on the 10-day injured list Sunday due to left hamstring discomfort.
Ryan Helsley	17 G	Out	Helsley (elbow) will throw a live batting practice session Tuesday, Jake Rill of MLB.com reports.
Ryan Mountcastle	1.9 PA/G	Out	Mountcastle (foot/oblique) has resumed a hitting progression, Jake Rill of MLB.com reports.
Tyler O'Neill	3.1 PA/G	Out	Manager Craig Albernaz said Monday that O'Neill's shoulder isn't responding to rehab the way they'd hoped, and he's dealing with a "significant" injury, Jake Rill of MLB.com reports.

Not in rotation (60-day IL / season-ending, or under 2.0 PA/G and fewer than 3 G pitched): Colin Selby, Felix Bautista, Jordan Westburg, Keegan Akin, Zach Eflin

PA/G = plate appearances per game played this season (hitters). G = games pitched this season (pitchers). ’25 = last season's figure (player hasn't appeared yet this season). Players under 2.0 PA/G and fewer than 3 G pitched in both seasons, and long-term absences (60-day IL, season-ending, surgery), are listed under “Not in rotation.”

Notes

No active systems for this matchup.

Baller Index Our Exclusive MLB Baller Index is a dynamic tool that adapts to MLB's latest trends, dynamically adjusting each team’s Starting Pitcher, Bullpen, and Team Batting ratings based on current performances and historical data. It factors in current form—reflecting recent player and team performances—and accounts for positive or negative regression to balance out extreme fluctuations. To find an edge, compare our Matchup Rating System with the game line to identify discrepancies that could signal a betting opportunity. Regular season only.

Guardians

T. Bibee	2/4
Bullpen:	1/3
Team Batting:	2/3
Matchup:	+2 Est. fair odds: -125 to -141 Implied win prob: 55.56% to 58.51%

Orioles

B. Young	1/4
Bullpen:	1/3
Team Batting:	1/3
Matchup:	-2 Est. fair odds: +125 to +141 Implied win prob: 41.49% to 44.44%

Regression Analysis The Regression Analysis section is a strictly rule-based analysis designed to simplify and interpret what the data indicates. This section identifies potential regression signals and organizes them into a clear breakdown for each side. The goal isn't to tell you what to bet—it's to provide context.

By translating the data into plain language, this can help you understand how regression and matchup factors interact. These signals highlight tendencies, not guarantees, and are most effective when used alongside the rest of the matchup page for full context.

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Records

Starting Pitchers Recent Performance

Tanner Bibee Last 5 Starts

	H	A	Line	Total	IP	K	BB	Hits	HR	ER	Runs	Opp Starter
9/3	CLE [ 3 ]	TOR [ 6 ]	-109	7.5	4	4	5	4	0	5	5	Jose Soriano (R)
8/28	CLE [ 0 ]	KCR [ 3 ]	-134	7.5	6	5	2	7	0	1	1	Michael Wacha (R)
8/22	COL [ 3 ]	CLE [ 4 ]	-134	11	6	6	1	5	1	2	2	Gabriel Hughes (R)
8/16	CLE [ 0 ]	SDP [ 5 ]	-102	8	6	3	3	7	2	3	3	Casey Mize (R)
8/11	DET [ 6 ]	CLE [ 4 ]	+122	8.5	6.33	4	2	5	0	5	6	Drew Anderson (R)
Averages:					5.67	4.4	2.6	5.6	0.6	3.2	3.4

Brandon Young Last 5 Starts

	H	A	Line	Total	IP	K	BB	Hits	HR	ER	Runs	Opp Starter
9/3	BAL [ 5 ]	BOS [ 6 ]	+103	8.5	6.67	7	2	4	2	3	3	Jake Bennett (L)
8/28	ATH [ 3 ]	BAL [ 4 ]	-111	9.5	7	4	1	5	1	1	1	Jacob Lopez (L)
8/22	BAL [ 3 ]	TBR [ 2 ]	+114	8.5	5.67	3	3	6	1	2	2	Shane McClanahan (L)
8/17	TBR [ 7 ]	BAL [ 6 ]	+145	7.5	4	3	1	8	3	4	4	Shane McClanahan (L)
8/11	MIN [ 2 ]	BAL [ 5 ]	-101	9	6	4	3	6	0	1	2	Bailey Ober (R)
Averages:					5.87	4.2	2	5.8	1.4	2.2	2.4

Bullpen Usage (Last 3 Days)

CLE Bullpen — Last 3 Days

Pitcher	9/5	9/6	9/7	App	IP	K	BB	H	ER
Slade Cecconi	·	·	3.0	1	3.0	3	0	3	2
Austin Peterson	2.0	·	·	1	2.0	3	0	1	0
Cade Smith	·	2.0	·	1	2.0	5	0	0	0
Craig Yoho	·	·	1.0	1	1.0	1	0	1	0
Daniel Espino	·	·	1.0	1	1.0	2	0	2	0
Erik Sabrowski	·	1.0	·	1	1.0	1	0	0	0
Hunter Gaddis	·	1.0	·	1	1.0	0	1	0	0
Matt Festa	1.0	·	·	1	1.0	1	1	3	3
Franco Aleman	·	·	0.2	1	0.2	2	2	0	0
Team Totals (9 arms used):				9	12.2	18	4	10	5

BAL Bullpen — Last 3 Days

Pitcher	9/5	9/6	9/7	App	IP	K	BB	H	ER
Albert Suarez	3.0	·	·	1	3.0	3	1	3	2
Anthony Nunez	·	2.0	·	1	2.0	3	0	0	0
Cam Sanders	·	1.0	·	1	1.0	3	0	1	0
Grant Wolfram	·	1.0	·	1	1.0	2	0	1	0
Luis De Leon	·	1.0	·	1	1.0	0	1	0	0
Rico Garcia	0.1	·	0.2	2	0.3	1	0	1	0
Andrew Kittredge	·	·	0.2	1	0.2	0	0	3	3
Josh Walker	·	·	0.1	1	0.1	0	0	0	0
Team Totals (8 arms used):				9	8.6	12	2	9	5

Schedules

Guardians Schedule

Date	Season	Team Starter	Runs	Site	Opponent Starter	Opp Runs	Line	Total
09/11/26	2026	Guardians Parker Messick (L)	-	away	Twins	-	-	-
09/09/26	2026	Guardians Foster Griffin (L)	-	away	Orioles Shane Baz (R)	-	-103	9.0
09/08/26	2026	Guardians Tanner Bibee (R)	-	away	Orioles Brandon Young (R)	-	+102	8.0
09/07/26	2026	Guardians Joey Cantillo (L)	4	away	Orioles Trevor Rogers (L)	6	+117	7.0
09/06/26	2026	Guardians Gavin Williams (R)	3	home	Tigers Jackson Jobe (R)	2	-166	7.0
09/05/26	2026	Guardians Parker Messick (L)	0	home	Tigers Framber Valdez (L)	6	-161	7.0
09/04/26	2026	Guardians Logan Allen (L)	7	home	Tigers Keider Montero (L)	6	-128	8.0
09/04/26	2026	Guardians Foster Griffin (L)	4	home	Tigers Andrew Sears (R)	3	-147	7.5
09/03/26	2026	Guardians Tanner Bibee (R)	3	home	Blue Jays Jose Soriano (R)	6	-109	7.5
09/02/26	2026	Guardians Joey Cantillo (L)	0	home	Blue Jays Dylan Cease (R)	11	+114	7.0
09/01/26	2026	Guardians Gavin Williams (R)	6	home	Blue Jays Spencer Miles (R)	1	-180	8.0
08/30/26	2026	Guardians Parker Messick (L)	11	home	Royals Seth Lugo (R)	1	-190	7.5
08/29/26	2026	Guardians Foster Griffin (L)	3	home	Royals Daniel Lynch (L)	8	-163	8.0
Away Games Avg (1 games)			4.0	-	-	6.0	+117	7.0
All Games Avg (10 games)			4.1	-	-	5.0	-136	7.5

Orioles Schedule

Date	Season	Team Starter	Runs	Site	Opponent Starter	Opp Runs	Line	Total
09/11/26	2026	Orioles	-	away	Blue Jays	-	-	-
09/09/26	2026	Orioles Shane Baz (R)	-	home	Guardians Foster Griffin (L)	-	-112	9.0
09/08/26	2026	Orioles Brandon Young (R)	-	home	Guardians Tanner Bibee (R)	-	-120	8.0
09/07/26	2026	Orioles Trevor Rogers (L)	6	home	Guardians Joey Cantillo (L)	4	-134	7.0
09/06/26	2026	Orioles Kyle Bradish (R)	1	home	Red Sox Payton Tolle (L)	3	+113	7.0
09/05/26	2026	Orioles Chris Bassitt (R)	0	home	Red Sox Sonny Gray (R)	5	+109	7.5
09/04/26	2026	Orioles Shane Baz (R)	0	home	Red Sox Ranger Suarez (L)	1	-104	8.0
09/03/26	2026	Orioles Brandon Young (R)	5	home	Red Sox Jake Bennett (L)	6	+103	8.5
09/02/26	2026	Orioles Trevor Rogers (L)	5	away	Rockies Tomoyuki Sugano (R)	6	-179	11.5
09/01/26	2026	Orioles Kyle Bradish (R)	2	away	Rockies Gabriel Hughes (R)	4	-151	11.0
08/31/26	2026	Orioles Cade Povich (L)	2	away	Rockies Tanner Gordon (R)	1	-123	11.0
08/30/26	2026	Orioles Chris Bassitt (R)	8	away	Athletics Jeffrey Springs (L)	5	-149	10.0
08/29/26	2026	Orioles Shane Baz (R)	5	away	Athletics Jack Perkins (R)	3	-142	10.0
Home Games Avg (5 games)			2.4	-	-	3.8	-102	7.6
All Games Avg (10 games)			3.4	-	-	3.8	-122	9.2

Notable Trends

No notable trends identified for this matchup.

View All Records

Orioles (Home)

The Orioles are 48% (72-78) on the moneyline

The Orioles are 51.1% (24-23) on the moneyline as a home fav

The Orioles are 50.7% (71-69-4) to the over/under

The Orioles are 52.2% (24-22-1) to the over/under as a home fav

The Orioles are 50% (14-14) (L30 days) on the moneyline

The Orioles are 66.7% (2-1) (L30 days) on the moneyline as a home fav

The Orioles are 46.4% (13-15) (L30 days) to the over/under

The Orioles are 66.7% (2-1) (L30 days) to the over/under as a home fav

Guardians (Away)

The Guardians are 50% (74-74) on the moneyline

The Guardians are 48.8% (20-21) on the moneyline as an away dog

The Guardians are 47.9% (69-75) to the over/under

The Guardians are 51.2% (21-20) to the over/under as an away dog

The Guardians are 57.1% (16-12) (L30 days) on the moneyline

The Guardians are 33.3% (1-2) (L30 days) on the moneyline as an away dog

The Guardians are 44.4% (12-15) (L30 days) to the over/under

The Guardians are 100% (3-0) (L30 days) to the over/under as an away dog

Past Matchups (Last 7)

Date	Season	Team Starter	Runs	Site	Opponent Starter	Opp Runs	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
09/07/26	2026	Orioles Trevor Rogers (L)	6	Home	Guardians Joey Cantillo (L)	4	-134	7.0	-2	10
04/19/26	2026	Orioles Trevor Rogers (L)	4	Away	Guardians Joey Cantillo (L)	8	+100	7.0	+4	12
04/18/26	2026	Orioles Dean Kremer (R)	2	Away	Guardians Gavin Williams (R)	4	+115	7.5	+2	6
04/17/26	2026	Orioles Chris Bassitt (R)	6	Away	Guardians Tanner Bibee (R)	4	+116	8.0	-2	10
04/16/26	2026	Orioles Shane Baz (R)	2	Away	Guardians Parker Messick (L)	4	+118	-	+2	6
07/24/25	2025	Orioles Charlie Morton (R)	4	Away	Guardians Logan Allen (L)	3	-100	8.5	-1	7
07/23/25	2025	Orioles Zach Eflin (R)	2	Away	Guardians Slade Cecconi (R)	3	+110	8.5	+1	5
Orioles as Home (1 games)			6.0	-	-	4.0	-134	7.0	-2.0	10.0
All Games Avg (7 games)			3.7	-	-	4.3	+104	7.8	+0.6	8.0