WNBA Game Matchups & Analysis

7:30 p.m.
New York Liberty @ Atlanta Dream

Liberty: 28-19 (59.6%) | Market Rating: +2.52

Dream: 33-14 (70.2%) | Market Rating: +5.24

Line: -2.5

Total: 170.5

Open: -3.5

Open: 172.5

Team totals: Liberty 84.5 · Dream 86.5 (open 85.5 / 87.5)

Injury Report as of Oct 6, 6:17 AM ET NYL1 Out ATL2 Out

NYL

Player	MPG	Status	Reason
Satou Sabally	16.8	Out	out

Not in rotation (under 3 MPG): Annika Soltau, Elizabeth Balogun, Manuela Puoch, Seehia Ridard

ATL

Player	MPG	Status	Reason
Allisha Gray	32.2	Out	Gray (hand) exited to the locker room in the second quarter of Sunday's Game 1 against the Liberty and will not return, Alexa Philippou of ESPN.com reports. She'll finish with seven points (1-5 FG, 1-3 3Pt, 4-5 FT), one rebound and one steal in 11 minutes.
Brionna Jones	16.9	Out	Jones will miss the remainder of the season after sustaining a left leg injury against the Sun on Aug. 13, Annie Costabile of The Athletic reports.

Not in rotation (under 3 MPG): Matilde Villa

MPG = this season's average. ’25 = last season's average (player hasn't appeared yet this season). Players under 3 MPG in both seasons are listed under “Not in rotation.”

Notes — no active systems for this matchup.

Baller Index Our Exclusive WNBA Baller Index is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions essentially look for teams that have over- or under-performed, in terms of points scored, relative to what would be expected based on their underlying metrics and who might be in for regression. While it does not factor in injuries, situational spots, or historic matchups into account, it can be a good place to start when thinking about a particular matchup.

Model only runs during the regular season.

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Records

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Schedules

Liberty Schedule

Date	Season	Team	Points	Site	Opponent	Opp Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
10/07/26	2026	Liberty	-	away	Dream	-	+2.5	170.5	-	-
10/04/26	2026	Liberty	82	away	Dream	92	+4.5	173.0	+10	174 (+1.0)
09/29/26	2026	Liberty	87	home	Lynx	71	+3.5	174.0	-16	158 (-16.0)
09/27/26	2026	Liberty	91	away	Lynx	75	+7.0	174.5	-16	166 (-8.5)
09/23/26	2026	Liberty	65	home	Dream	83	+4.5	174.0	+18	148 (-26.0)
09/21/26	2026	Liberty	84	home	Dream	95	+1.5	177.5	+11	179 (+1.5)
09/20/26	2026	Liberty	106	away	Tempo	69	-15.5	176.5	-37	175 (-1.5)
09/18/26	2026	Liberty	93	away	Lynx	81	+6.5	177.5	-12	174 (-3.5)
08/29/26	2026	Liberty	85	home	Sky	66	-8.5	181.0	-19	151 (-30.0)
08/27/26	2026	Liberty	60	home	Valkyries	79	-3.0	162.0	+19	139 (-23.0)
08/22/26	2026	Liberty	109	home	Fever	102	-1.5	187.0	-7	211 (+24.0)
Away Games Avg (4 games)			93.0	-	-	79.3	+0.6	175.4	-13.8	172.3 (-3.1)
All Games Avg (10 games)			86.2	-	-	81.3	-0.1	175.7	-4.9	167.5 (-8.2)

Dream Schedule

Date	Season	Team	Points	Site	Opponent	Opp Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
10/07/26	2026	Dream	-	home	Liberty	-	-2.5	170.5	-	-
10/04/26	2026	Dream	92	home	Liberty	82	-4.5	173.0	-10	174 (+1.0)
09/30/26	2026	Dream	93	away	Mystics	75	-3.5	167.0	-18	168 (+1.0)
09/27/26	2026	Dream	92	home	Mystics	77	-7.5	164.0	-15	169 (+5.0)
09/23/26	2026	Dream	83	away	Liberty	65	-4.5	174.0	-18	148 (-26.0)
09/21/26	2026	Dream	95	away	Liberty	84	-1.5	177.5	-11	179 (+1.5)
09/19/26	2026	Dream	106	home	Sky	81	-15.0	177.0	-25	187 (+10.0)
09/17/26	2026	Dream	103	home	Sun	59	-17.5	168.5	-44	162 (-6.5)
08/30/26	2026	Dream	89	home	Lynx	81	+2.5	177.0	-8	170 (-7.0)
08/28/26	2026	Dream	83	home	Fire	101	-13.0	178.5	+18	184 (+5.5)
08/24/26	2026	Dream	78	away	Sparks	71	-10.5	182.0	-7	149 (-33.0)
Home Games Avg (6 games)			94.2	-	-	80.2	-9.2	173.0	-14.0	174.3 (+1.3)
All Games Avg (10 games)			91.4	-	-	77.6	-7.5	173.9	-13.8	169.0 (-4.9)

Notable Trends

The Dream are 72.7% (16-6) to the over/under as a home fav

The Dream are 100% (7-0) (L30 days) against the spread

The Dream are 100% (4-0) (L30 days) against the spread at home

The Dream are 100% (7-0) (L30 days) against the spread as a fav

The Dream are 100% (4-0) (L30 days) against the spread as a home fav

The Dream are 71.4% (5-2) (L30 days) to the over/under

The Dream are 75% (3-1) (L30 days) to the over/under at home

The Dream are 71.4% (5-2) (L30 days) to the over/under as a fav

The Dream are 75% (3-1) (L30 days) to the over/under as a home fav

The Liberty are 27.3% (6-16-2) against the spread away

The Liberty are 70.8% (17-7) to the over/under away

The Liberty are 75% (3-1) (L30 days) against the spread away

The Liberty are 28.6% (2-5) (L30 days) to the over/under

The Liberty are 25% (1-3) (L30 days) to the over/under away

View All Records

Dream (Home)

The Dream are 48.9% (23-24) against the spread

The Dream are 45.8% (11-13) against the spread at home

The Dream are 46.5% (20-23) against the spread as a fav

The Dream are 40.9% (9-13) against the spread as a home fav

The Dream are 55.3% (26-21) to the over/under

The Dream are 66.7% (16-8) to the over/under at home

The Dream are 60.5% (26-17) to the over/under as a fav

The Dream are 72.7% (16-6) to the over/under as a home fav

The Dream are 100% (7-0) (L30 days) against the spread

The Dream are 100% (4-0) (L30 days) against the spread at home

The Dream are 100% (7-0) (L30 days) against the spread as a fav

The Dream are 100% (4-0) (L30 days) against the spread as a home fav

The Dream are 71.4% (5-2) (L30 days) to the over/under

The Dream are 75% (3-1) (L30 days) to the over/under at home

The Dream are 71.4% (5-2) (L30 days) to the over/under as a fav

The Dream are 75% (3-1) (L30 days) to the over/under as a home fav

Liberty (Away)

The Liberty are 41.3% (19-27-2) against the spread

The Liberty are 27.3% (6-16-2) against the spread away

The Liberty are 50% (6-6-1) against the spread as a dog

The Liberty are 50% (4-4-1) against the spread as an away dog

The Liberty are 54.2% (26-22) to the over/under

The Liberty are 70.8% (17-7) to the over/under away

The Liberty are 53.8% (7-6) to the over/under as a dog

The Liberty are 55.6% (5-4) to the over/under as an away dog

The Liberty are 57.1% (4-3) (L30 days) against the spread