NFL Matchups: Predictions, Odds & Betting Trends

Sun, 10/4, Final: 23 – 30
Los Angeles Chargers @ Seattle Seahawks

Chargers: 0-3 (0.0%) - AFC West | Market Rating: +1.32

Seahawks: 2-1 (66.7%) - NFC West | Market Rating: +2.98 | Home Field: +1.9 pts

Line: -7.0

Total: 43.0

Open: -6

Open: 44

Team totals: Chargers 17.5 · Seahawks 25.5

NWS forecast: 68°F wind 3 mph NW (gusts 6) 0% precip · Sunny (last before kickoff)

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Injury Report as of Oct 4, 11:36 PM ET LAC4 Out5 Questionable SEA2 Out1 Questionable

Los Angeles Chargers

Player	Pos · Snaps	Status	Reason
Derwin James Jr.	S · 97%	Out	James (hamstring) is listed as out for Sunday's game versus the Seahawks. Updated Oct 4
Kayode Awosika	G · 49%	Out	Awosika (leg) is inactive for Sunday's game against Seattle. Updated Oct 2
Charlie Kolar	TE · 49%	Out	inactive Updated Oct 2
Dalvin Tomlinson	DL · 47%	Out	inactive Updated Oct 2
Joe Alt	T · 100%	Questionable	Alt (neck) has been ruled out for the remainder of Sunday's matchup with the Seahawks. Updated Oct 4
Rashawn Slater	T · 100%	Questionable	Slater (ankle) is questionable to return to Sunday's game against the Seahawks. Updated Oct 4
Ladd McConkey	WR · 73%	Questionable	McConkey won't return to Sunday's contest at Seattle due to a foot injury. Updated Sep 30
Trevor Penning	OL · 50%	Questionable	Penning (head) exited Sunday's contest against Seattle in the fourth quarter. Updated Oct 4
Donte Jackson	CB · 43%	Questionable	Jackson (hamstring) is questionable to return to Sunday's game against Seattle. Updated Sep 27

Not in rotation (under 40% of snaps, or no snap in the team's last 8 games): Alex Harkey, Brenen Thompson, DJ Uiagalelei

Seattle Seahawks

Player	Pos · Snaps	Status	Reason
Ty Okada	S · 44%	Out	Okada (hamstring) is inactive against the Chargers on Sunday, John Boyle of the Seahawks' official site reports. Updated Oct 4
Zach Charbonnet	RB · 42%	Out	Charbonnet (knee) was a limited practice participant Thursday and Friday, John Boyle of the Seahawks' official site reports. Updated Sep 18
Leonard Williams	DT · 72%	Questionable	questionable Updated Oct 4

Not in rotation (under 40% of snaps, or no snap in the team's last 8 games): Avery Smith, Brandon Pili, Chazz Surratt, Jadarian Price, Jalen Milroe, Montorie Foster Jr., Nick Kallerup

Snaps his share of the team's offensive or defensive snaps in the games he played, over the team's last 8 games.
Not in rotation under 40% of snaps, or no snap in those games (long-term absences).
a position group with 2+ starters (50%+ of snaps, 40%+ on the D-line) out or doubtful, or 3+ counting questionable.
Updated the first report with his current status, looking back 120 days at most. “Or earlier” means it reaches the oldest report we have.

Notes

Chargers

Situational Factor(s)

Lookahead: next game versus division rival

Baller System(s)

Back early season road underdogs who's opponent lost last game

Back road team off loss more than a TD

Unders system: based on team with consecutive road games and a higher than average total

Seahawks

Situational Factor(s)

First game home off 2+ game road trip

Lookahead: next game versus division rival

Coming off a loss as a favorite (bounce back)

Baller System(s)

Back favorite off a game as a fav w/ low turnovers

Big fav bounceback after unexpected loss

Over system based on market totals vs. average scoring

Baller Index Our Exclusive NFL Baller Index is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions essentially look for teams that have over- or under-performed, in terms of points scored, relative to what would be expected based on their underlying metrics and who might be in for regression. While it does not factor in injuries, situational spots, or historic matchups into account, it can be a good place to start when thinking about a particular matchup.

Model Side

Chargers

57.19% probability

Model Total

No clear side

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Filters

Team Comparison Stats, Records and the sections tied to them follow these filters; each team's Schedule and Historical Matchups follow them when their switch is on.

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Schedules

Chargers Schedule Follow global filters

Date	Team	Points		Opponent	Opp Pts	Yds	Rush	Rec	Int	Fum	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
10/18/26 2026	Chargers	-	@	Chiefs	-	-	-	-	-	-	+7.5	41.5	-	-
10/11/26 2026	Chargers	-	vs.	Broncos	-	-	-	-	-	-	+3.5	42.0	-	-
10/04/26 2026	Chargers	-	@	Seahawks	-	-	-	-	-	-	+7.0	43.0	-	-
09/27/26 2026	Chargers	16	@	Bills	24	357	131	226	2	0	+7.0	50.5	+8	U 40 -10.5
09/20/26 2026	Chargers	14	vs.	Raiders	26	319	127	192	1	6	-6.5	43.5	+12	U 40 -3.5
09/13/26 2026	Chargers	14	vs.	Cardinals	26	290	81	209	0	1	-9.0	47.0	+12	U 40 -7.0
Last season · shown for reference, not in the averages
01/11/26 2025	Chargers	3	@	Patriots	16	246	87	159	1	2	+3.5	45.5	+13	U 19 -26.5
01/04/26 2025	Chargers	3	@	Broncos	19	249	113	136	0	1	+15.5	37.5	+16	U 22 -15.5
12/27/25 2025	Chargers	16	vs.	Texans	20	310	74	236	2	2	-1.5	41.0	+4	U 36 -5.0
12/21/25 2025	Chargers	34	@	Cowboys	17	452	152	300	0	1	+2.5	49.5	-17	O 51 +1.5
12/14/25 2025	Chargers	16	@	Chiefs	13	304	94	210	2	1	+5.5	41.5	-3	U 29 -12.5
12/08/25 2025	Chargers	22	vs.	Eagles	19 OT	308	169	139	4	3	+1.5	42.0	-3	U 41 -1.0
11/30/25 2025	Chargers	31	vs.	Raiders	14	352	192	160	1	0	-9.5	40.5	-17	O 45 +4.5

Away Games Avg (1 game this season)		16.0	-	-	24.0	357	131	226	2.0	0.0	+7.0	50.5	+8.0 -1.0	U 40.0 -10.5

All Games Avg (3 games this season)		14.7	-	-	25.3	322	113	209	1.0	2.3	-2.8	47.0	+10.7 -13.5	U 40.0 -7.0

Seahawks Schedule Follow global filters

Date	Team	Points		Opponent	Opp Pts	Yds	Rush	Rec	Int	Fum	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
10/15/26 2026	Seahawks	-	@	Broncos	-	-	-	-	-	-	-2.5	40.5	-	-
10/11/26 2026	Seahawks	-	vs.	49ers	-	-	-	-	-	-	-3.0	47.0	-	-
10/04/26 2026	Seahawks	-	vs.	Chargers	-	-	-	-	-	-	-7.0	43.0	-	-
09/27/26 2026	Seahawks	31	@	Commanders	33	437	44	393	0	2	-8.5	40.5	+2	O 64 +23.5
09/20/26 2026	Seahawks	31	@	Cardinals	7	397	162	235	1	2	-4.0	41.0	-24	U 38 -3.0
09/09/26 2026	Seahawks	13	vs.	Patriots	10	297	97	200	3	0	-3.0	44.5	-3	U 23 -21.5
Last season · shown for reference, not in the averages
02/08/26 2025	Seahawks	29	vs.	Patriots	13	343	141	202	2	0	-4.5	45.5	-16	U 42 -3.5
01/25/26 2025	Seahawks	31	vs.	Rams	27	421	75	346	0	2	-2.5	45.5	-4	O 58 +12.5
01/17/26 2025	Seahawks	41	vs.	49ers	6	299	175	124	1	0	-7.0	44.5	-35	O 47 +2.5
01/03/26 2025	Seahawks	13	@	49ers	3	378	180	198	1	1	-2.5	48.5	-10	U 16 -32.5
12/28/25 2025	Seahawks	27	@	Panthers	10	310	163	147	1	3	-6.5	42.5	-17	U 37 -5.5
12/18/25 2025	Seahawks	38	vs.	Rams	37 OT	441	171	270	0	1	-1.5	42.5	-1	O 75 +32.5
12/14/25 2025	Seahawks	18	vs.	Colts	16	321	50	271	1	1	-13.5	42.5	-2	U 34 -8.5

Home Games Avg (1 game this season)		13.0	-	-	10.0	297	97	200	3.0	0.0	-3.0	44.5	-3.0 0.0	U 23.0 -21.5

All Games Avg (3 games this season)		25.0	-	-	16.7	377	101	276	1.3	1.3	-5.2	42.0	-8.3 +3.2	U 41.7 -0.3

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Records

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Notable Trends

Notable trends will be listed here starting Week 4.

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Seahawks (Home)

The Seahawks are 50% (1-1-1) against the spread

The Seahawks are 50% (1-1-1) against the spread as a fav

The Seahawks are 66.7% (2-1) to the under

The Seahawks are 100% (1-0) to the under at home

The Seahawks are 66.7% (2-1) to the under as a fav

The Seahawks are 100% (1-0) to the under as a home fav

The Seahawks are 50% (1-1-1) (L30 days) against the spread

The Seahawks are 50% (1-1-1) (L30 days) against the spread as a fav

The Seahawks are 66.7% (2-1) (L30 days) to the under

The Seahawks are 100% (1-0) (L30 days) to the under at home

The Seahawks are 66.7% (2-1) (L30 days) to the under as a fav

The Seahawks are 100% (1-0) (L30 days) to the under as a home fav

Chargers (Away)

The Chargers are 0% (0-3) against the spread

The Chargers are 0% (0-1) against the spread away

The Chargers are 0% (0-1) against the spread as a dog

The Chargers are 0% (0-1) against the spread as an away dog

The Chargers are 100% (3-0) to the under

The Chargers are 100% (1-0) to the under away

The Chargers are 100% (1-0) to the under as a dog

The Chargers are 100% (1-0) to the under as an away dog

The Chargers are 0% (0-3) (L30 days) against the spread

The Chargers are 0% (0-1) (L30 days) against the spread away

The Chargers are 0% (0-1) (L30 days) against the spread as a dog

The Chargers are 0% (0-1) (L30 days) against the spread as an away dog

The Chargers are 100% (3-0) (L30 days) to the under

The Chargers are 100% (1-0) (L30 days) to the under away

The Chargers are 100% (1-0) (L30 days) to the under as a dog

The Chargers are 100% (1-0) (L30 days) to the under as an away dog

Historical Matchups (Last 3 Seasons, Max 10) Follow global filters

No previous matchups between these teams in the last 3 seasons.

Algorithm	Model Side
DVOA ZScores Normalized DVOA comparision. High Confidence: 4-5 (44.4%)	Neutral
Basic Stats 8-feature regression. Medium Confidence: 3-6 (33.3%)	Chargers
Luck Regression Looking at things like int, fumbles, etc. High Confidence: 1-2 (33.3%)	Neutral
ATS Analysis 2-feature logistic regression. High Confidence: 2-5 (28.6%)	Chargers (2x)
Cover Summary	Chargers
OVERALL	Chargers \| No Total Edge

NFL Matchups: Predictions, Odds & Betting Trends

Sun, 10/4, Final: 23 – 30 Los Angeles Chargers @ Seattle Seahawks window.TMB_PAGE_CONTEXT = { page: 'matchup', sport: "nfl", away_team: "Los Angeles Chargers", home_team: "Seattle Seahawks", game_date: "2026-10-04" };

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Injury Report as of Oct 4, 11:36 PM ET LAC4 Out5 Questionable SEA2 Out1 Questionable

Notes

Chargers

Situational Factor(s)

Baller System(s)

Seahawks

Situational Factor(s)

Baller System(s)

Model Side

Model Total

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Algorithm Breakdown

Filters

Schedules

Chargers Schedule Follow global filters

Seahawks Schedule Follow global filters

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Records

Notable Trends

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Seahawks (Home)

Chargers (Away)

Historical Matchups (Last 3 Seasons, Max 10) Follow global filters

Sun, 10/4, Final: 23 – 30
Los Angeles Chargers @ Seattle Seahawks