MLB Game Matchups & Analysis

2:00 p.m.
Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves

Phillies: 88-74 (54.3%) | Jesus Luzardo (L): 21-8 (72.4%) | Market Rating: +6.8% (-131)

Braves: 94-68 (58.0%) | Chris Sale (L): 17-10 (63.0%) | Market Rating: +2.7% (-111)

Run line

Total

Phillies

+164

+1.5 (-138)

6.5

Braves

-194

-1.5 (+117)

Open

Phillies

+166

+1.5 (-140)

6.5

Braves

-202

-1.5 (+117)

Injury Report as of Sep 28, 8:12 PM ET PHI1 Out2 Questionable ATL6 Out

PHI

Player	PA/G · G	Status	Reason
Felix Reyes	3.2 PA/G	Out	The Phillies optioned Reyes to Triple-A Lehigh Valley on Monday, Matt Gelb of The Athletic reports.
Jonathan Bowlan	59 G	Questionable	Bowlan was diagnosed with a mild right groin strain Friday, Todd Zolecki of MLB.com reports.
Luis Arraez	4.2 PA/G	Questionable	Phillies interim manager Don Mattingly said Monday that Arraez (ankle) will not be included on the National League Wild Card series roster, Todd Zolecki of MLB.com reports.

Not in rotation (60-day IL / season-ending, or under 2.0 PA/G and fewer than 3 G pitched): Adolis Garcia, Brad Keller, Caleb Kilian, Johan Rojas

ATL

Player	PA/G · G	Status	Reason
Bryce Elder	26 G	Out	Elder (knee) threw a live batting practice session Monday, Mark Bowman of MLB.com reports.
Jurickson Profar	4.6 PA/G ’25	Out	Profar will miss the full 2026 season after the appeal of his 162-game PED suspension was denied Thursday, Jeff Passan of ESPN.com reports.
Lane Thomas	3.3 PA/G	Out	Thomas (intercostal) took some swings off a tee Tuesday, Mark Bowman of MLB.com reports.
Martin Perez	30 G	Out	Perez didn't factor into the decision Sunday against Houston, striking out two while allowing one run on six hits and two walks in 4.1 innings.
Reynaldo Lopez	25 G	Out	Lopez (4-5) took the loss in Monday's 7-3 loss against the Cubs after allowing five runs on six hits and two walks with two strikeouts over three innings. After the game, manager Walt Weiss stated that Lopez may be placed on the injured list due to a shoulder injury, Chad Bishop of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports.
Spencer Strider	8 G	Out	Strider (elbow) is not expected to return to Atlanta's active roster before the end of this season, Mark Bowman of MLB.com reports.

Not in rotation (60-day IL / season-ending, or under 2.0 PA/G and fewer than 3 G pitched): Hurston Waldrep, Joe Jimenez, Joey Wentz, Spencer Schwellenbach

PA/G = plate appearances per game played this season (hitters). G = games pitched this season (pitchers). ’25 = last season's figure (player hasn't appeared yet this season). Players under 2.0 PA/G and fewer than 3 G pitched in both seasons, and long-term absences (60-day IL, season-ending, surgery), are listed under “Not in rotation.”

Notes

Phillies

Nothing active

Braves

Baller System(s)

Playoff-specific: Play under when starter allowed 3+ runs in previous same-season matchup

Baller Index Our Exclusive MLB Baller Index is a dynamic tool that adapts to MLB's latest trends, dynamically adjusting each team’s Starting Pitcher, Bullpen, and Team Batting ratings based on current performances and historical data. It factors in current form—reflecting recent player and team performances—and accounts for positive or negative regression to balance out extreme fluctuations. To find an edge, compare our Matchup Rating System with the game line to identify discrepancies that could signal a betting opportunity. Regular season only.

Phillies

J. Luzardo	Unlock with Baller Access
Bullpen:	Unlock with Baller Access
Team Batting:	Unlock with Baller Access
Matchup:	Unlock with Baller Access

Braves

C. Sale	Unlock with Baller Access
Bullpen:	Unlock with Baller Access
Team Batting:	Unlock with Baller Access
Matchup:	Unlock with Baller Access

Regression Analysis The Regression Analysis section is a strictly rule-based analysis designed to simplify and interpret what the data indicates. This section identifies potential regression signals and organizes them into a clear breakdown for each side. The goal isn't to tell you what to bet—it's to provide context.

By translating the data into plain language, this can help you understand how regression and matchup factors interact. These signals highlight tendencies, not guarantees, and are most effective when used alongside the rest of the matchup page for full context.

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Team Comparison Stats Loading...

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Records

Starting Pitchers Recent Performance

Jesus Luzardo Last 5 Starts

	H	A	Line	Total	IP	K	BB	Hits	HR	ER	Runs	Opp Starter
9/7	PHI [ 1 ]	ATL [ 0 ]	-187	8	9	12	1	2	0	0	0	Grant Holmes (R)
9/1	ARI [ 1 ]	PHI [ 7 ]	-130	7.5	6.67	6	1	6	1	1	1	Eduardo Rodriguez (L)
8/26	SEA [ 0 ]	PHI [ 6 ]	-135	7	7	9	3	1	0	0	0	Bryan Woo (R)
8/21	PHI [ 7 ]	STL [ 6 ]	-268	8	5.67	9	1	6	2	4	4	Hunter Dobbins (R)
8/15	MIN [ 1 ]	PHI [ 9 ]	-132	8	6.66667	9	2	7	0	1	1	Connor Prielipp (L)
Averages:					7	9	1.6	4.4	0.6	1.2	1.2

Chris Sale Last 5 Starts

	H	A	Line	Total	IP	K	BB	Hits	HR	ER	Runs	Opp Starter
9/23	ATL [ 3 ]	CIN [ 2 ]	-267	7	5.67	10	0	4	1	1	1	Andrew Abbott (L)
9/11	ATL [ 6 ]	PHI [ 5 ]	-185	7	7	6	2	3	0	3	3	Aaron Nola (R)
9/4	PHI [ 2 ]	ATL [ 5 ]	-101	7	6	7	1	6	1	2	2	Cristopher Sanchez (L)
8/27	ATL [ 1 ]	LAD [ 0 ]	-117	6.5	9	11	0	5	0	0	0	Yoshinobu Yamamoto (R)
8/21	MIL [ 2 ]	ATL [ 1 ]	+125	6	6	6	0	8	0	2	2	Jacob Misiorowski (R)
Averages:					6.73	8	0.6	5.2	0.4	1.6	1.6

Bullpen Usage (Last 3 Days)

PHI Bullpen — Last 3 Days

Pitcher	9/26	9/27	9/28	App	IP	K	BB	H	ER
Jose Urquidy	2.2	·	·	1	2.2	3	0	5	3
Chase Shugart	1.2	·	·	1	1.2	3	1	1	1
Tanner Banks	1.1	·	·	1	1.1	1	1	0	0
Alex McFarlane	·	1.0	·	1	1.0	1	0	3	2
Brooks Raley	1.0	·	·	1	1.0	0	0	2	0
Jesus Luzardo	·	1.0	·	1	1.0	0	0	0	0
Jhoan Duran	·	1.0	·	1	1.0	2	0	0	0
Max Lazar	1.0	·	·	1	1.0	2	0	4	2
Jose Alvarado	0.1	·	·	1	0.1	0	3	1	3
Team Totals (9 arms used):				9	11.0	12	5	16	11

ATL Bullpen — Last 3 Days

Pitcher	9/26	9/27	9/28	App	IP	K	BB	H	ER
Victor Mederos	2.0	·	·	1	2.0	2	1	0	0
AJ Smith-Shawver	·	1.1	·	1	1.1	3	0	1	1
Dylan Dodd	1.0	·	·	1	1.0	0	0	3	2
Dylan Lee	1.0	·	·	1	1.0	1	0	1	0
Elieser Hernandez	·	1.0	·	1	1.0	2	0	0	0
Raisel Iglesias	1.0	·	·	1	1.0	0	0	1	0
Robert Suarez	1.0	·	·	1	1.0	0	0	2	1
Team Totals (7 arms used):				7	8.1	8	1	8	4

Schedules

Phillies Schedule

Date	Season	Team Starter	Runs	Site	Opponent Starter	Opp Runs	Line	Total
10/01/26	2026	Phillies	-	away	Braves	-	-	-
09/30/26	2026	Phillies TBD	-	away	Braves TBD	-	-	-
09/29/26	2026	Phillies Jesus Luzardo (L)	-	away	Braves Chris Sale (L)	-	+164	6.5
09/27/26	2026	Phillies Zack Wheeler (R)	7	home	Rays Nick Martinez (R)	3	-200	6.5
09/26/26	2026	Phillies Aaron Nola (R)	1	home	Rays Griffin Jax (R)	12	-121	7.0
09/25/26	2026	Phillies Cristopher Sanchez (L)	0	home	Rays Freddy Peralta (R)	2	-175	6.5
09/24/26	2026	Phillies Andrew Painter (R)	1	home	Brewers Shane Drohan (L)	5	-134	8.0
09/23/26	2026	Phillies Aaron Nola (R)	1	home	Brewers Logan Henderson (R)	4	+108	7.0
09/22/26	2026	Phillies Zack Wheeler (R)	6	home	Brewers Dustin May (R)	4	-142	7.5
09/20/26	2026	Phillies Cristopher Sanchez (L)	7	away	Mets Jonah Tong (R)	2	-161	7.5
09/19/26	2026	Phillies Andrew Painter (R)	3	away	Mets Christian Scott (R)	10	+105	8.0
09/18/26	2026	Phillies Tim Mayza (L)	3	away	Mets Zac Thornton (L)	6	+105	8.5
09/17/26	2026	Phillies Aaron Nola (R)	3	away	Mets Nolan McLean (R)	0	+109	8.0
Away Games Avg (4 games)			4.0	-	-	4.5	-107	8.0
All Games Avg (10 games)			3.2	-	-	4.8	-125	7.5

Braves Schedule

Date	Season	Team Starter	Runs	Site	Opponent Starter	Opp Runs	Line	Total
10/01/26	2026	Braves	-	home	Phillies	-	-	-
09/30/26	2026	Braves TBD	-	home	Phillies TBD	-	-	-
09/29/26	2026	Braves Chris Sale (L)	-	home	Phillies Jesus Luzardo (L)	-	-194	6.5
09/27/26	2026	Braves JR Ritchie (R)	3	away	Marlins Janson Junk (R)	5	+106	8.0
09/26/26	2026	Braves Brent Suter (L)	8	away	Marlins Jack Ralston (R)	3	-117	8.5
09/25/26	2026	Braves Ray Kerr (L)	0	away	Marlins Eury Perez (R)	3	-115	8.0
09/24/26	2026	Braves Tyler Mahle (R)	6	home	Reds Brady Singer (R)	7	-229	8.0
09/23/26	2026	Braves Chris Sale (L)	3	home	Reds Andrew Abbott (L)	2	-267	7.0
09/22/26	2026	Braves JR Ritchie (R)	0	home	Reds Brandon Williamson (L)	4	-235	9.5
09/20/26	2026	Braves Martin Perez (L)	4	away	Astros Hunter Brown (R)	2	+129	8.0
09/19/26	2026	Braves Grant Holmes (R)	6	away	Astros Hayden Wesneski (R)	3	+115	8.5
09/18/26	2026	Braves Tyler Mahle (R)	6	away	Astros Peter Lambert (R)	2	-119	8.0
09/16/26	2026	Braves JR Ritchie (R)	4	away	Cubs Shota Imanaga (L)	8	+138	7.5
Home Games Avg (3 games)			3.0	-	-	4.3	-243	8.2
All Games Avg (10 games)			4.0	-	-	3.9	-125	8.1

Notable Trends

The Phillies are 83.3% (5-1) (L30 days) to the over/under as an away dog

View All Records

Braves (Home)

The Braves are 58% (94-68) on the moneyline

The Braves are 62.2% (46-28) on the moneyline as a home fav

The Braves are 48.4% (74-79-9) to the over/under

The Braves are 47.1% (33-37-4) to the over/under as a home fav

The Braves are 50% (13-13) (L30 days) on the moneyline

The Braves are 45.5% (5-6) (L30 days) on the moneyline as a home fav

The Braves are 56.5% (13-10-3) (L30 days) to the over/under

The Braves are 54.5% (6-5) (L30 days) to the over/under as a home fav

Phillies (Away)

The Phillies are 54.3% (88-74) on the moneyline

The Phillies are 31% (9-20) on the moneyline as an away dog

The Phillies are 49.4% (76-78-8) to the over/under

The Phillies are 50% (14-14-1) to the over/under as an away dog

The Phillies are 46.2% (12-14) (L30 days) on the moneyline

The Phillies are 33.3% (2-4) (L30 days) on the moneyline as an away dog

The Phillies are 56% (14-11-1) (L30 days) to the over/under

The Phillies are 83.3% (5-1) (L30 days) to the over/under as an away dog

Past Matchups (Last 7)

Date	Season	Team Starter	Runs	Site	Opponent Starter	Opp Runs	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
09/13/26	2026	Braves Grant Holmes (R)	4	Home	Phillies Andrew Painter (R)	9	-130	9.5	+5	13
09/12/26	2026	Braves Tyler Mahle (R)	12	Home	Phillies Tim Mayza (L)	2	-141	8.5	-10	14
09/11/26	2026	Braves Chris Sale (L)	6	Home	Phillies Aaron Nola (R)	5	-185	7.0	-1	11
09/07/26	2026	Braves Grant Holmes (R)	0	Away	Phillies Jesus Luzardo (L)	1	+159	8.0	+1	1
09/06/26	2026	Braves Tyler Mahle (R)	5	Away	Phillies Aaron Nola (R)	4	-108	8.0	-1	9
09/05/26	2026	Braves Martin Perez (L)	2	Away	Phillies Zack Wheeler (R)	4	+139	8.0	+2	6
09/04/26	2026	Braves Chris Sale (L)	5	Away	Phillies Cristopher Sanchez (L)	2	-101	7.0	-3	7
Braves as Home (3 games)			7.3	-	-	5.3	-150	8.3	-2.0	12.7
All Games Avg (7 games)			4.9	-	-	3.9	-107	8.0	-1.0	8.7

MLB Game Matchups & Analysis

2:00 p.m. Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves window.TMB_PAGE_CONTEXT = { page: 'matchup', sport: "mlb", away_team: "Philadelphia Phillies", home_team: "Atlanta Braves", game_date: "2026-09-29" };

Injury Report as of Sep 28, 8:12 PM ET PHI1 Out2 Questionable ATL6 Out

Notes

Phillies

Braves

Baller System(s)

Phillies

Braves

Team Comparison Stats Loading...

Records

Starting Pitchers Recent Performance

Bullpen Usage (Last 3 Days)

Schedules

Phillies Schedule

Braves Schedule

Notable Trends

View All Records

Braves (Home)

Phillies (Away)

Past Matchups (Last 7)

2:00 p.m.
Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves