WNBA Matchups: Predictions, Odds & Betting Trends

Final: 66 – 85
Chicago Sky @ New York Liberty

Sky: 15-24 (38.5%) | Market Rating: -2.04

Liberty: 23-16 (59.0%) | Market Rating: +2.72 | Home Court: +3.0 pts

Line: -8.5

Total: 181.0

Open: -8.5

Open: 179

Team totals: Sky 85.5 · Liberty 95.5

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Injury Report as of Aug 29, 11:47 PM ET CHI3 Out NYL1 Out

Chicago Sky

Player	MPG	Status	Reason
DiJonai Carrington	16.2	Out	Carirngton (foot) is out for Saturday's game against the Liberty. Updated Aug 25
Rickea Jackson	29.5	Out	The Sky announced Tuesday that Jackson will miss the remainder of the season after suffering a torn ACL in her left knee during Sunday's 86-79 win over the Lynx. Updated May 19
Skylar Diggins	29.1	Out	Diggins (knee) is out for Saturday's game against the Liberty. Updated Jul 7

Not in rotation / low minutes: Ajsa Sivka

New York Liberty

Player	MPG	Status	Reason
Satou Sabally	16.8	Out	out Updated Jun 27

Not in rotation / low minutes: Annika Soltau, Manuela Puoch, Seehia Ridard

MPG this season's minutes per game.
’25 last season's average: he hasn't appeared yet this season.
Not in rotation / low minutes under 10 MPG in both seasons.
Updated the first report with his current status, looking back 120 days at most. “Or earlier” means it reaches the oldest report we have.

Notes

Sky

Situational Factor(s)

Coming off a loss as a favorite (bounce back)

Rest advantage

Well rested (two or more days of rest)

Baller System(s)

Back team off more rest and has more rest in upcoming game than opponent

Don't Be Scared to Shoot

Liberty

Situational Factor(s)

Rest disadvantage

Coming off a loss as a favorite (bounce back)

In season revenge

Baller Index Our Exclusive WNBA Baller Index is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions essentially look for teams that have over- or under-performed, in terms of points scored, relative to what would be expected based on their underlying metrics and who might be in for regression. While it does not factor in injuries, situational spots, or historic matchups into account, it can be a good place to start when thinking about a particular matchup.

Model Side

Sky

55.63% probability

Model Total

No clear side

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Filters

Team Comparison Stats, Records and the sections tied to them follow these filters; each team's Schedule and Historical Matchups follow them when their switch is on.

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Schedules

Sky Schedule Follow global filters

Date	Team	Points		Opponent	Opp Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
09/19/26 2026	Sky	-	@	Dream	-	+15.0	177.0	-	-
09/17/26 2026	Sky	-	vs.	Mystics	-	+1.5	166.0	-	-
08/29/26 2026	Sky	-	@	Liberty	-	+8.5	181.0	-	-
08/25/26	Sky	81	@	Sun	87	-7.5	171.0	+6	U 168 -3.0
2026	ORtg: 104.3 DRtg: 112.1 Pace: 77.6			ORtg: 112.1 DRtg: 104.3 Pace: 77.6
08/23/26	Sky	90	vs.	Fever	113	+2.0	187.5	+23	O 203 +15.5
2026	ORtg: 109.3 DRtg: 137.2 Pace: 82.4			ORtg: 137.2 DRtg: 109.3 Pace: 82.4
08/21/26	Sky	73	vs.	Valkyries	70	+6.5	163.5	-3	U 143 -20.5
2026	ORtg: 92.6 DRtg: 88.8 Pace: 78.8			ORtg: 88.8 DRtg: 92.6 Pace: 78.8
08/18/26	Sky	93	vs.	Liberty	86	+4.0	180.0	-7	U 179 -1.0
2026	ORtg: 109.8 DRtg: 101.5 Pace: 84.7			ORtg: 101.5 DRtg: 109.8 Pace: 84.7
08/16/26	Sky	82	@	Storm	80	-2.5	177.5	-2	U 162 -15.5
2026	ORtg: 91.1 DRtg: 88.9 Pace: 90.0			ORtg: 88.9 DRtg: 91.1 Pace: 90.0
08/12/26	Sky	71	@	Valkyries	91	+8.5	166.5	+20	U 162 -4.5
2026	ORtg: 92.5 DRtg: 118.6 Pace: 76.7			ORtg: 118.6 DRtg: 92.5 Pace: 76.7
08/10/26	Sky	88	@	Storm	97	-2.5	179.0	+9	O 185 +6.0
2026	ORtg: 105.0 DRtg: 115.7 Pace: 83.8			ORtg: 115.7 DRtg: 105.0 Pace: 83.8
08/08/26	Sky	86	vs.	Fever	90	+6.0	191.5	+4	U 176 -15.5
2026	ORtg: 108.2 DRtg: 113.2 Pace: 79.5			ORtg: 113.2 DRtg: 108.2 Pace: 79.5
08/05/26	Sky	95	vs.	Sparks	88	-2.5	187.0	-7	U 183 -4.0
2026	ORtg: 117.1 DRtg: 108.5 Pace: 81.1			ORtg: 108.5 DRtg: 117.1 Pace: 81.1
08/03/26	Sky	101	vs.	Mercury	106	+1.5	179.5	+5	O 207 +27.5
2026	ORtg: 119.3 DRtg: 125.2 Pace: 84.7			ORtg: 125.2 DRtg: 119.3 Pace: 84.7

Away Games Avg (4 games)		80.5	-	-	88.8	-1.0	173.5	+8.3 -9.3	U 169.3 -4.3
	ORtg: 98.2 DRtg: 108.8 Pace: 82.1			ORtg: 108.8 DRtg: 98.2 Pace: 82.1

All Games Avg (10 games)		86.0	-	-	90.8	+1.4	178.3	+4.8 -3.5	U 176.8 -1.5
	ORtg: 104.9 DRtg: 111.0 Pace: 81.9			ORtg: 111.0 DRtg: 104.9 Pace: 81.9

Liberty Schedule Follow global filters

Date	Team	Points		Opponent	Opp Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
09/20/26 2026	Liberty	-	@	Tempo	-	-15.5	176.5	-	-
09/18/26 2026	Liberty	-	@	Lynx	-	+6.5	177.5	-	-
08/29/26 2026	Liberty	-	vs.	Sky	-	-8.5	181.0	-	-
08/27/26	Liberty	60	vs.	Valkyries	79	-3.0	162.0	+19	U 139 -23.0
2026	ORtg: 86.4 DRtg: 113.8 Pace: 69.4			ORtg: 113.8 DRtg: 86.4 Pace: 69.4
08/22/26	Liberty	109	vs.	Fever	102	-1.5	187.0	-7	O 211 +24.0
2026	ORtg: 130.1 DRtg: 121.8 Pace: 83.8			ORtg: 121.8 DRtg: 130.1 Pace: 83.8
08/18/26	Liberty	86	@	Sky	93	-4.0	180.0	+7	U 179 -1.0
2026	ORtg: 101.5 DRtg: 109.8 Pace: 84.7			ORtg: 109.8 DRtg: 101.5 Pace: 84.7
08/15/26	Liberty	82	@	Sun	75	-8.0	171.0	-7	U 157 -14.0
2026	ORtg: 108.0 DRtg: 98.8 Pace: 75.9			ORtg: 98.8 DRtg: 108.0 Pace: 75.9
08/13/26	Liberty	85	vs.	Sparks	81	-8.0	187.0	-4	U 166 -21.0
2026	ORtg: 108.7 DRtg: 103.6 Pace: 78.2			ORtg: 103.6 DRtg: 108.7 Pace: 78.2
08/11/26	Liberty	92	@	Fever	106	+3.0	190.5	+14	O 198 +7.5
2026	ORtg: 114.0 DRtg: 131.4 Pace: 80.7			ORtg: 131.4 DRtg: 114.0 Pace: 80.7
08/09/26	Liberty	111	vs.	Aces	71	-11.5	175.5	-40	O 182 +6.5
2026	ORtg: 140.2 DRtg: 89.7 Pace: 79.1			ORtg: 89.7 DRtg: 140.2 Pace: 79.1
08/05/26	Liberty	92	vs.	Storm	86	-8.0	183.5	-6	U 178 -5.5
2026	ORtg: 114.4 DRtg: 106.9 Pace: 80.5			ORtg: 106.9 DRtg: 114.4 Pace: 80.5
08/03/26	Liberty	95	vs.	Storm	83	-7.5	182.0	-12	U 178 -4.0
2026	ORtg: 124.8 DRtg: 109.1 Pace: 76.1			ORtg: 109.1 DRtg: 124.8 Pace: 76.1
08/01/26	Liberty	94	@	Mercury	92	-3.0	177.0	-2	O 186 +9.0
2026	ORtg: 118.3 DRtg: 115.7 Pace: 79.5			ORtg: 115.7 DRtg: 118.3 Pace: 79.5

Home Games Avg (6 games)		92.0	-	-	83.7	-6.6	179.5	-8.3 +1.8	U 175.7 -3.8
	ORtg: 117.5 DRtg: 107.5 Pace: 77.8			ORtg: 107.5 DRtg: 117.5 Pace: 77.8

All Games Avg (10 games)		90.6	-	-	86.8	-5.2	179.6	-3.8 -1.4	U 177.4 -2.2
	ORtg: 114.7 DRtg: 110.1 Pace: 78.8			ORtg: 110.1 DRtg: 114.7 Pace: 78.8

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On / Off Court

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Records

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Notable Trends

The Liberty are 71.4% (5-2) (L30 days) to the under at home

The Liberty are 70% (7-3) (L30 days) to the under as a fav

The Liberty are 71.4% (5-2) (L30 days) to the under as a home fav

The Sky are 0% (0-5) (L30 days) against the spread away

The Sky are 80% (4-1) (L30 days) to the under away

The Sky are 75% (6-2) (L30 days) to the under as a dog

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Liberty (Home)

The Liberty are 38.5% (15-24-2) against the spread

The Liberty are 57.1% (12-9) against the spread at home

The Liberty are 36.4% (12-21-1) against the spread as a fav

The Liberty are 55% (11-9) against the spread as a home fav

The Liberty are 58.5% (24-17) to the over

The Liberty are 61.9% (13-8) to the under at home

The Liberty are 55.9% (19-15) to the over as a fav

The Liberty are 65% (13-7) to the under as a home fav

The Liberty are 33.3% (4-8) (L30 days) against the spread

The Liberty are 57.1% (4-3) (L30 days) against the spread at home

The Liberty are 40% (4-6) (L30 days) against the spread as a fav

The Liberty are 57.1% (4-3) (L30 days) against the spread as a home fav

The Liberty are 58.3% (7-5) (L30 days) to the under

The Liberty are 71.4% (5-2) (L30 days) to the under at home

The Liberty are 70% (7-3) (L30 days) to the under as a fav

The Liberty are 71.4% (5-2) (L30 days) to the under as a home fav

Sky (Away)

The Sky are 52.5% (21-19) against the spread

The Sky are 45% (9-11) against the spread away

The Sky are 53.8% (14-12) against the spread as a dog

The Sky are 57.1% (8-6) against the spread as an away dog

The Sky are 55% (22-18) to the over

The Sky are 55% (11-9) to the over away

The Sky are 50% (13-13) to the over as a dog

The Sky are 57.1% (8-6) to the over as an away dog

The Sky are 46.2% (6-7) (L30 days) against the spread

The Sky are 0% (0-5) (L30 days) against the spread away

The Sky are 50% (4-4) (L30 days) against the spread as a dog

The Sky are 0% (0-2) (L30 days) against the spread as an away dog

The Sky are 69.2% (9-4) (L30 days) to the under

The Sky are 80% (4-1) (L30 days) to the under away

The Sky are 75% (6-2) (L30 days) to the under as a dog

The Sky are 100% (2-0) (L30 days) to the under as an away dog

Past Matchups (Last 2 Seasons, Max 10) Follow global filters

Date	Team	Pts		Opponent	Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
08/18/26	Liberty	86	@	Sky	93	-4.0	180.0	+7	U 179 -1.0
2026	ORtg: 101.5 DRtg: 109.8 Pace: 84.7			ORtg: 109.8 DRtg: 101.5 Pace: 84.7
07/22/26	Liberty	95	vs.	Sky	94	-7.5	178.5	-1	O 189 +10.5
2026	ORtg: 114.5 DRtg: 113.2 Pace: 83.0			ORtg: 113.2 DRtg: 114.5 Pace: 83.0
06/17/26	Liberty	96	@	Sky	95	-10.0	169.5	-1	O 191 +21.5
2026	ORtg: 123.8 DRtg: 122.5 Pace: 77.6			ORtg: 122.5 DRtg: 123.8 Pace: 77.6
09/11/25	Liberty	91	@	Sky	86	-13.5	157.0	-5	O 177 +20.0
2025	ORtg: 120.9 DRtg: 114.2 Pace: 75.3			ORtg: 114.2 DRtg: 120.9 Pace: 75.3
08/21/25	Liberty	85	vs.	Sky	91	-15.0	162.5	+6	O 176 +13.5
2025	ORtg: 110.0 DRtg: 117.7 Pace: 77.3			ORtg: 117.7 DRtg: 110.0 Pace: 77.3
06/10/25	Liberty	85	vs.	Sky	66	-16.5	163.5	-19	U 151 -12.5
2025	ORtg: 107.3 DRtg: 83.3 Pace: 79.2			ORtg: 83.3 DRtg: 107.3 Pace: 79.2
05/22/25	Liberty	99	@	Sky	74	-12.0	164.5	-25	O 173 +8.5
2025	ORtg: 120.2 DRtg: 89.9 Pace: 82.3			ORtg: 89.9 DRtg: 120.2 Pace: 82.3

Liberty as Home (3 games)		88.3	-	-	83.7	-13.0	168.2	-4.7 -8.3	O 172.0 +3.8
	ORtg: 110.6 DRtg: 104.8 Pace: 79.8			ORtg: 104.8 DRtg: 110.6 Pace: 79.8

All Games Avg (7 games)		91.0	-	-	85.6	-11.2	167.9	-5.4 -5.8	O 176.6 +8.6
	ORtg: 114.0 DRtg: 107.2 Pace: 79.9			ORtg: 107.2 DRtg: 114.0 Pace: 79.9

Algorithm	Model Side
Schedule Analysis Schedule strength and fatigue factors. High Confidence: 13-12 (52%)	Neutral
Differentials Normalized z-scored differentials. High Confidence: 15-26 (36.6%)	Sky (2x)
Basic Stat Comp Basic 3-stat regression. High Confidence: 25-32 (43.9%)	Neutral
Net Ratings + Market Analysis Simple but Effective - 57.3% High-Confidence Win Rate High Confidence: 45-68 (39.8%)	Neutral
Cover Summary	Sky
Opponent Defense Opponent and defensive metrics. Medium Confidence: 2-1 (66.7%)	Neutral
Norms and Averages Best Totals Model - 60.1% High-Confidence Win Rate Medium Confidence: 14-17 (45.2%)	Neutral
Total Summary	No Bet
OVERALL	Sky \| No Total Edge

WNBA Matchups: Predictions, Odds & Betting Trends

Final: 66 – 85 Chicago Sky @ New York Liberty window.TMB_PAGE_CONTEXT = { page: 'matchup', sport: "wnba", away_team: "Chicago Sky", home_team: "New York Liberty", game_date: null };

Odds Full WNBA odds board

Injury Report as of Aug 29, 11:47 PM ET CHI3 Out NYL1 Out

Notes

Sky

Situational Factor(s)

Baller System(s)

Liberty

Situational Factor(s)

Model Side

Model Total

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Algorithm Breakdown

Filters

Schedules

Sky Schedule Follow global filters

Liberty Schedule Follow global filters

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On / Off Court

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Records

Notable Trends

View All Records

Liberty (Home)

Sky (Away)

Past Matchups (Last 2 Seasons, Max 10) Follow global filters

Final: 66 – 85
Chicago Sky @ New York Liberty