WNBA Matchups: Predictions, Odds & Betting Trends

Final: 106 – 101
Los Angeles Sparks @ Portland Fire

Sparks: 10-17 (37.0%) | Market Rating: -1.86

Fire: 11-18 (37.9%) | Market Rating: -3.98 | Home Court: +0.6 pts

Line: -0.5

Total: 186.0

Open: -1

Open: 182.5

Team totals: Sparks 93.5 · Fire 93.5

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Games
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Injury Report as of Aug 2, 11:47 PM ET LAS2 Out PDX2 Out

Los Angeles Sparks

Player	MPG	Status	Reason
Monique Akoa Makani	21.8	Out	Akoa Makani, a 2027 first-round pick and a 2028 second-round pick were traded to the Sparks from the Mercury on Sunday in exchange for Kelsey Plum, Shams Charania of ESPN reports. Updated Aug 2
Tonie Morgan	16.5	Out	Morgan (coach's decision) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Fire. Updated Aug 2

Not in rotation / low minutes: Alissa Pili

Portland Fire

Player	MPG	Status	Reason
Jordan Harrison	14.1	Out	Harrison (coach's decision) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Sparks. Updated Aug 2
Sarah Ashlee Barker	24.7	Out	The Fire announced Friday that Barker will undergo surgery to repair a torn ACL and will miss the remainder of the 2026 campaign. Updated Jul 22

Not in rotation / low minutes: Iyana Martin, Nika Muhl, Sania Feagin

MPG this season's minutes per game.
’25 last season's average: he hasn't appeared yet this season.
Not in rotation / low minutes under 10 MPG in both seasons.
Updated the first report with his current status, looking back 120 days at most. “Or earlier” means it reaches the oldest report we have.

Notes

Sparks

Situational Factor(s)

Rest advantage

Well rested (two or more days of rest)

Baller System(s)

Don't Be Scared to Shoot

Fire

Situational Factor(s)

Rest disadvantage

Double digit, in season revenge

Baller System(s)

Fade rusty road team off 4+ days rest

Don't Be Scared to Shoot

Baller Index Our Exclusive WNBA Baller Index is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions essentially look for teams that have over- or under-performed, in terms of points scored, relative to what would be expected based on their underlying metrics and who might be in for regression. While it does not factor in injuries, situational spots, or historic matchups into account, it can be a good place to start when thinking about a particular matchup.

Model Side

Sparks

55.63% probability

Model Total

No clear side

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Filters

Team Comparison Stats, Records and the sections tied to them follow these filters; each team's Schedule and Historical Matchups follow them when their switch is on.

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Schedules

Sparks Schedule Follow global filters

Date	Team	Points		Opponent	Opp Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
08/06/26 2026	Sparks	-	@	Lynx	-	+16.5	187.5	-	-
08/05/26 2026	Sparks	-	@	Sky	-	+2.5	187.0	-	-
08/02/26 2026	Sparks	-	@	Fire	-	+0.5	186.0	-	-
07/28/26	Sparks	109	vs.	Liberty	113	+5.0	182.5	+4	O 222 +39.5
2026	ORtg: 125.9 DRtg: 130.5 Pace: 86.6			ORtg: 130.5 DRtg: 125.9 Pace: 86.6
07/22/26	Sparks	82	vs.	Mercury	86	-1.0	176.5	+4	U 168 -8.5
2026	ORtg: 98.5 DRtg: 103.3 Pace: 83.3			ORtg: 103.3 DRtg: 98.5 Pace: 83.3
07/19/26	Sparks	82	@	Wings	90	+9.5	182.5	+8	U 172 -10.5
2026	ORtg: 102.0 DRtg: 111.9 Pace: 80.4			ORtg: 111.9 DRtg: 102.0 Pace: 80.4
07/17/26	Sparks	82	@	Sky	96	+2.5	182.5	+14	U 178 -4.5
2026	ORtg: 97.0 DRtg: 113.5 Pace: 84.6			ORtg: 113.5 DRtg: 97.0 Pace: 84.6
07/15/26	Sparks	87	@	Lynx	96	+11.0	181.5	+9	O 183 +1.5
2026	ORtg: 107.0 DRtg: 118.1 Pace: 81.3			ORtg: 118.1 DRtg: 107.0 Pace: 81.3
07/13/26	Sparks	92	@	Dream	101	+9.5	182.5	+9	O 193 +10.5
2026	ORtg: 109.4 DRtg: 120.1 Pace: 84.1			ORtg: 120.1 DRtg: 109.4 Pace: 84.1
07/10/26	Sparks	102	vs.	Sky	87	-1.0	176.5	-15	O 189 +12.5
2026	ORtg: 118.6 DRtg: 101.2 Pace: 86.0			ORtg: 101.2 DRtg: 118.6 Pace: 86.0
07/08/26	Sparks	106	vs.	Fever	92	+6.0	181.5	-14	O 198 +16.5
2026	ORtg: 119.2 DRtg: 103.5 Pace: 88.9			ORtg: 103.5 DRtg: 119.2 Pace: 88.9
07/06/26	Sparks	64	vs.	Storm	82	-4.5	175.5	+18	U 146 -29.5
2026	ORtg: 75.5 DRtg: 96.7 Pace: 84.8			ORtg: 96.7 DRtg: 75.5 Pace: 84.8
06/27/26	Sparks	87	@	Fever	111	+6.5	182.5	+24	O 198 +15.5
2026	ORtg: 102.2 DRtg: 130.4 Pace: 85.1			ORtg: 130.4 DRtg: 102.2 Pace: 85.1

Away Games Avg (5 games)		86.0	-	-	98.8	+7.8	182.3	+12.8 -5.0	O 184.8 +2.5
	ORtg: 103.5 DRtg: 118.8 Pace: 83.1			ORtg: 118.8 DRtg: 103.5 Pace: 83.1

All Games Avg (10 games)		89.3	-	-	95.4	+4.4	180.4	+6.1 -1.8	O 184.7 +4.3
	ORtg: 105.5 DRtg: 112.9 Pace: 84.5			ORtg: 112.9 DRtg: 105.5 Pace: 84.5

Fire Schedule Follow global filters

Date	Team	Points		Opponent	Opp Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
08/08/26 2026	Fire	-	vs.	Storm	-	+1.5	180.5	-	-
08/06/26 2026	Fire	-	vs.	Tempo	-	-2.5	187.0	-	-
08/02/26 2026	Fire	-	vs.	Sparks	-	-0.5	186.0	-	-
07/31/26	Fire	98	vs.	Fever	112	+8.0	187.5	+14	O 210 +22.5
2026	ORtg: 115.3 DRtg: 131.8 Pace: 85.0			ORtg: 131.8 DRtg: 115.3 Pace: 85.0
07/28/26	Fire	83	@	Aces	98	+12.5	176.5	+15	O 181 +4.5
2026	ORtg: 107.1 DRtg: 126.4 Pace: 77.5			ORtg: 126.4 DRtg: 107.1 Pace: 77.5
07/22/26	Fire	97	vs.	Wings	101	+7.5	178.0	+4	O 198 +20.0
2026	ORtg: 120.1 DRtg: 125.0 Pace: 80.8			ORtg: 125.0 DRtg: 120.1 Pace: 80.8
07/18/26	Fire	93	@	Lynx	101	+13.0	174.0	+8	O 194 +20.0
2026	ORtg: 116.3 DRtg: 126.3 Pace: 79.9			ORtg: 126.3 DRtg: 116.3 Pace: 79.9
07/16/26	Fire	75	@	Mystics	56	+6.0	163.0	-19	U 131 -32.0
2026	ORtg: 105.0 DRtg: 78.4 Pace: 71.5			ORtg: 78.4 DRtg: 105.0 Pace: 71.5
07/14/26	Fire	87	@	Sun	90	+2.5	167.0	+3	O 177 +10.0
2026	ORtg: 112.5 DRtg: 116.3 Pace: 77.4			ORtg: 116.3 DRtg: 112.5 Pace: 77.4
07/11/26	Fire	102	@	Dream	92	+12.5	174.0	-10	O 194 +20.0
2026	ORtg: 125.2 DRtg: 113.0 Pace: 81.4			ORtg: 113.0 DRtg: 125.2 Pace: 81.4
07/09/26	Fire	80	vs.	Aces	88	+10.0	175.0	+8	U 168 -7.0
2026	ORtg: 102.8 DRtg: 113.0 Pace: 77.8			ORtg: 113.0 DRtg: 102.8 Pace: 77.8
07/04/26	Fire	77	@	Storm	72	+4.5	173.0	-5	U 149 -24.0
2026	ORtg: 91.1 DRtg: 85.2 Pace: 84.5			ORtg: 85.2 DRtg: 91.1 Pace: 84.5
06/28/26	Fire	123	@	Mystics	124 4OT	+7.0	167.5	+1	O 247 +79.5
2026	ORtg: 106.7 DRtg: 107.6 Pace: 102.4			ORtg: 107.6 DRtg: 106.7 Pace: 102.4

Home Games Avg (3 games)		91.7	-	-	100.3	+8.5	180.2	+8.7 -0.2	O 192.0 +11.8
	ORtg: 112.7 DRtg: 123.3 Pace: 81.2			ORtg: 123.3 DRtg: 112.7 Pace: 81.2

All Games Avg (10 games)		91.5	-	-	93.4	+8.4	173.6	+1.9 +6.5	O 184.9 +11.4
	ORtg: 110.2 DRtg: 112.3 Pace: 81.8			ORtg: 112.3 DRtg: 110.2 Pace: 81.8

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On / Off Court

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Records

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Notable Trends

The Fire are 70% (7-3) (L30 days) to the over

The Fire are 75% (3-1) (L30 days) to the over at home

The Sparks are 71.4% (10-4) to the over away

The Sparks are 73.7% (14-5) to the over as a dog

The Sparks are 72.7% (8-3) to the over as an away dog

The Sparks are 70% (7-3) (L30 days) against the spread

The Sparks are 80% (4-1) (L30 days) against the spread away

The Sparks are 85.7% (6-1) (L30 days) against the spread as a dog

The Sparks are 80% (4-1) (L30 days) against the spread as an away dog

The Sparks are 71.4% (5-2) (L30 days) to the over as a dog

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Fire (Home)

The Fire are 46.7% (14-16) against the spread

The Fire are 46.7% (7-8) against the spread at home

The Fire are 40% (2-3) against the spread as a fav

The Fire are 40% (2-3) against the spread as a home fav

The Fire are 65.5% (19-10-1) to the over

The Fire are 64.3% (9-5-1) to the over at home

The Fire are 60% (3-2) to the under as a fav

The Fire are 60% (3-2) to the under as a home fav

The Fire are 60% (6-4) (L30 days) against the spread

The Fire are 50% (2-2) (L30 days) against the spread at home

The Fire are 0% (0-1) (L30 days) against the spread as a fav

The Fire are 0% (0-1) (L30 days) against the spread as a home fav

The Fire are 70% (7-3) (L30 days) to the over

The Fire are 75% (3-1) (L30 days) to the over at home

The Fire are 100% (1-0) (L30 days) to the over as a fav

The Fire are 100% (1-0) (L30 days) to the over as a home fav

Sparks (Away)

The Sparks are 46.4% (13-15) against the spread

The Sparks are 57.1% (8-6) against the spread away

The Sparks are 52.6% (10-9) against the spread as a dog

The Sparks are 63.6% (7-4) against the spread as an away dog

The Sparks are 67.9% (19-9) to the over

The Sparks are 71.4% (10-4) to the over away

The Sparks are 73.7% (14-5) to the over as a dog

The Sparks are 72.7% (8-3) to the over as an away dog

The Sparks are 70% (7-3) (L30 days) against the spread

The Sparks are 80% (4-1) (L30 days) against the spread away

The Sparks are 85.7% (6-1) (L30 days) against the spread as a dog

The Sparks are 80% (4-1) (L30 days) against the spread as an away dog

The Sparks are 60% (6-4) (L30 days) to the over

The Sparks are 60% (3-2) (L30 days) to the over away

The Sparks are 71.4% (5-2) (L30 days) to the over as a dog

The Sparks are 60% (3-2) (L30 days) to the over as an away dog

Past Matchups (Last 2 Seasons, Max 10) Follow global filters

Date	Team	Pts		Opponent	Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
06/07/26	Fire	72	@	Sparks	89	+7.5	174.5	+17	U 161 -13.5
2026	ORtg: 90.7 DRtg: 112.1 Pace: 79.4			ORtg: 112.1 DRtg: 90.7 Pace: 79.4

All Games Avg (1 games)		72.0	-	-	89.0	+7.5	174.5	+17.0 -9.5	U 161.0 -13.5
	ORtg: 90.7 DRtg: 112.1 Pace: 79.4			ORtg: 112.1 DRtg: 90.7 Pace: 79.4

Algorithm	Model Side
Schedule Analysis Schedule strength and fatigue factors. High Confidence: 10-9 (52.6%)	Neutral
Differentials Normalized z-scored differentials. High Confidence: 12-15 (44.4%)	Neutral
Basic Stat Comp Basic 3-stat regression. High Confidence: 19-19 (50%)	Neutral
Net Ratings + Market Analysis Simple but Effective - 57.3% High-Confidence Win Rate High Confidence: 32-48 (40%)	Sparks (2x)
Cover Summary	Sparks
Opponent Defense Opponent and defensive metrics. Medium Confidence: 2-1 (66.7%)	Neutral
Norms and Averages Best Totals Model - 60.1% High-Confidence Win Rate Medium Confidence: 10-10 (50%)	Neutral
Total Summary	No Bet
OVERALL	Sparks \| No Total Edge

WNBA Matchups: Predictions, Odds & Betting Trends

Final: 106 – 101 Los Angeles Sparks @ Portland Fire window.TMB_PAGE_CONTEXT = { page: 'matchup', sport: "wnba", away_team: "Los Angeles Sparks", home_team: "Portland Fire", game_date: null };

Odds Full WNBA odds board

Injury Report as of Aug 2, 11:47 PM ET LAS2 Out PDX2 Out

Notes

Sparks

Situational Factor(s)

Baller System(s)

Fire

Situational Factor(s)

Baller System(s)

Model Side

Model Total

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Algorithm Breakdown

Filters

Schedules

Sparks Schedule Follow global filters

Fire Schedule Follow global filters

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On / Off Court

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Records

Notable Trends

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Fire (Home)

Sparks (Away)

Past Matchups (Last 2 Seasons, Max 10) Follow global filters

Final: 106 – 101
Los Angeles Sparks @ Portland Fire