WNBA Matchups: Predictions, Odds & Betting Trends

Final: 99 – 98
New York Liberty @ Dallas Wings

Liberty: 13-12 (52.0%) | Market Rating: +3.69

Wings: 17-8 (68.0%) | Market Rating: +0.97 | Home Court: +2.7 pts

Line: +4.5

Total: 174.5

Open: +1.5

Open: 176.5

Team totals: Liberty 89.5 · Wings 85.5

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Injury Report as of Jul 20, 11:47 PM ET NYL3 Out DAL2 Out

New York Liberty

Player	MPG	Status	Reason
Leonie Fiebich	30.2	Out	Fiebich (foot) currently doesn't have a timetable to return, Jackie Powell of The IX Sports reports. Updated Jul 7
Marine Johannes	18.7	Out	Johannes (ankle) is out for Monday's game against the Wings. Updated Jul 20
Satou Sabally	16.8	Out	out Updated Jun 27

Not in rotation / low minutes: Annika Soltau, Manuela Puoch, Seehia Ridard

Dallas Wings

Player	MPG	Status	Reason
Alanna Smith	17.9	Out	Smith (leg) is out for Monday's game versus New York. Updated Jul 19
Paige Bueckers	32.9	Out	Bueckers won't play in Monday's game against the Liberty due to soreness. Updated Jul 19

MPG this season's minutes per game.
’25 last season's average: he hasn't appeared yet this season.
Not in rotation / low minutes under 10 MPG in both seasons.
Updated the first report with his current status, looking back 120 days at most. “Or earlier” means it reaches the oldest report we have.

Notes

Liberty

Situational Factor(s)

Travel fatigue, at least fourth straight game on the road

Coming off a loss as a favorite (bounce back)

Double digit, in season revenge

Rest advantage

Baller System(s)

Bounceback Road Favorite

Wings

Situational Factor(s)

Rest disadvantage

Baller System(s)

Back-to-Back Fatigue

Baller Index Our Exclusive WNBA Baller Index is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions essentially look for teams that have over- or under-performed, in terms of points scored, relative to what would be expected based on their underlying metrics and who might be in for regression. While it does not factor in injuries, situational spots, or historic matchups into account, it can be a good place to start when thinking about a particular matchup.

Model Side

No clear side

Model Total

No clear side

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Filters

Team Comparison Stats, Records and the sections tied to them follow these filters; each team's Schedule and Historical Matchups follow them when their switch is on.

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Schedules

Liberty Schedule Follow global filters

Date	Team	Points		Opponent	Opp Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
07/28/26 2026	Liberty	-	@	Sparks	-	-5.0	182.5	-	-
07/22/26 2026	Liberty	-	vs.	Sky	-	-7.5	178.5	-	-
07/20/26 2026	Liberty	-	@	Wings	-	-4.5	174.5	-	-
07/18/26	Liberty	88	@	Fever	108	-1.5	184.0	+20	O 196 +12.0
2026	ORtg: 104.1 DRtg: 127.8 Pace: 84.5			ORtg: 127.8 DRtg: 104.1 Pace: 84.5
07/12/26	Liberty	91	@	Tempo	93	-7.0	178.5	+2	O 184 +5.5
2026	ORtg: 101.8 DRtg: 104.1 Pace: 89.4			ORtg: 104.1 DRtg: 101.8 Pace: 89.4
07/11/26	Liberty	85	@	Lynx	90	+5.0	173.5	+5	O 175 +1.5
2026	ORtg: 112.0 DRtg: 118.5 Pace: 75.9			ORtg: 118.5 DRtg: 112.0 Pace: 75.9
07/07/26	Liberty	77	vs.	Wings	88	-4.5	175.5	+11	U 165 -10.5
2026	ORtg: 97.8 DRtg: 111.8 Pace: 78.7			ORtg: 111.8 DRtg: 97.8 Pace: 78.7
07/03/26	Liberty	99	vs.	Lynx	86	+2.5	174.5	-13	O 185 +10.5
2026	ORtg: 130.6 DRtg: 113.4 Pace: 75.8			ORtg: 113.4 DRtg: 130.6 Pace: 75.8
06/30/26	Liberty	93	vs.	Aces	85	-6.5	174.5	-8	O 178 +3.5
2026	ORtg: 116.1 DRtg: 106.1 Pace: 80.1			ORtg: 106.1 DRtg: 116.1 Pace: 80.1
06/28/26	Liberty	67	@	Valkyries	76	+1.5	164.0	+9	U 143 -21.0
2026	ORtg: 98.2 DRtg: 111.4 Pace: 68.2			ORtg: 111.4 DRtg: 98.2 Pace: 68.2
06/25/26	Liberty	88	@	Storm	99	-8.5	167.5	+11	O 187 +19.5
2026	ORtg: 107.0 DRtg: 120.4 Pace: 82.2			ORtg: 120.4 DRtg: 107.0 Pace: 82.2
06/23/26	Liberty	87	@	Aces	76	+2.5	177.5	-11	U 163 -14.5
2026	ORtg: 114.3 DRtg: 99.8 Pace: 76.1			ORtg: 99.8 DRtg: 114.3 Pace: 76.1
06/21/26	Liberty	97	@	Sparks	98	-5.5	181.0	+1	O 195 +14.0
2026	ORtg: 118.5 DRtg: 119.8 Pace: 81.8			ORtg: 119.8 DRtg: 118.5 Pace: 81.8

Away Games Avg (7 games)		86.1	-	-	91.4	-1.9	175.1	+5.3 -7.2	O 177.6 +2.4
	ORtg: 108.0 DRtg: 114.5 Pace: 79.7			ORtg: 114.5 DRtg: 108.0 Pace: 79.7

All Games Avg (10 games)		87.2	-	-	89.9	-2.2	175.1	+2.7 -4.9	O 177.1 +2.1
	ORtg: 110.0 DRtg: 113.3 Pace: 79.3			ORtg: 113.3 DRtg: 110.0 Pace: 79.3

Wings Schedule Follow global filters

Date	Team	Points		Opponent	Opp Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
07/29/26 2026	Wings	-	vs.	Dream	-	+1.5	182.0	-	-
07/22/26 2026	Wings	-	@	Fire	-	-7.5	178.0	-	-
07/20/26 2026	Wings	-	vs.	Liberty	-	+4.5	174.5	-	-
07/19/26	Wings	90	vs.	Sparks	82	-9.5	182.5	-8	U 172 -10.5
2026	ORtg: 111.9 DRtg: 102.0 Pace: 80.4			ORtg: 102.0 DRtg: 111.9 Pace: 80.4
07/12/26	Wings	96	vs.	Sky	91	-9.5	177.5	-5	O 187 +9.5
2026	ORtg: 121.5 DRtg: 115.1 Pace: 79.0			ORtg: 115.1 DRtg: 121.5 Pace: 79.0
07/10/26	Wings	108	@	Tempo	95	-7.5	178.5	-13	O 203 +24.5
2026	ORtg: 142.3 DRtg: 125.2 Pace: 75.9			ORtg: 125.2 DRtg: 142.3 Pace: 75.9
07/07/26	Wings	88	@	Liberty	77	+4.5	175.5	-11	U 165 -10.5
2026	ORtg: 111.8 DRtg: 97.8 Pace: 78.7			ORtg: 97.8 DRtg: 111.8 Pace: 78.7
07/05/26	Wings	89	@	Tempo	76	-6.5	185.5	-13	U 165 -20.5
2026	ORtg: 120.6 DRtg: 103.0 Pace: 73.8			ORtg: 103.0 DRtg: 120.6 Pace: 73.8
07/02/26	Wings	86	@	Sun	83	-7.0	172.0	-3	U 169 -3.0
2026	ORtg: 105.8 DRtg: 102.1 Pace: 81.3			ORtg: 102.1 DRtg: 105.8 Pace: 81.3
06/28/26	Wings	77	vs.	Lynx	85	+3.5	178.5	+8	U 162 -16.5
2026	ORtg: 97.1 DRtg: 107.2 Pace: 79.3			ORtg: 107.2 DRtg: 97.1 Pace: 79.3
06/25/26	Wings	84	@	Aces	99	+5.5	178.0	+15	O 183 +5.0
2026	ORtg: 101.6 DRtg: 119.7 Pace: 82.7			ORtg: 119.7 DRtg: 101.6 Pace: 82.7
06/22/26	Wings	112	@	Storm	110 OT	-9.5	170.5	-2	O 222 +51.5
2026	ORtg: 123.2 DRtg: 121.0 Pace: 80.8			ORtg: 121.0 DRtg: 123.2 Pace: 80.8
06/20/26	Wings	93	vs.	Sky	92	-10.5	174.5	-1	O 185 +10.5
2026	ORtg: 110.8 DRtg: 109.6 Pace: 84.0			ORtg: 109.6 DRtg: 110.8 Pace: 84.0

Home Games Avg (4 games)		89.0	-	-	87.5	-6.5	178.3	-1.5 -5.0	U 176.5 -1.8
	ORtg: 110.3 DRtg: 108.5 Pace: 80.7			ORtg: 108.5 DRtg: 110.3 Pace: 80.7

All Games Avg (10 games)		92.3	-	-	89.0	-4.7	177.3	-3.3 -1.4	O 181.3 +4.0
	ORtg: 114.7 DRtg: 110.3 Pace: 79.6			ORtg: 110.3 DRtg: 114.7 Pace: 79.6

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On / Off Court

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Records

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Notable Trends

The Wings are 20% (1-4) (L30 days) against the spread at home

The Liberty are 25% (3-9-2) against the spread away

The Liberty are 11.1% (1-8-1) against the spread as an away fav

The Liberty are 85.7% (12-2) to the over away

The Liberty are 100% (10-0) to the over as an away fav

The Liberty are 30% (3-7-1) (L30 days) against the spread

The Liberty are 14.3% (1-6-1) (L30 days) against the spread away

The Liberty are 14.3% (1-6) (L30 days) against the spread as a fav

The Liberty are 0% (0-5) (L30 days) against the spread as an away fav

The Liberty are 72.7% (8-3) (L30 days) to the over

The Liberty are 75% (6-2) (L30 days) to the over away

The Liberty are 85.7% (6-1) (L30 days) to the over as a fav

The Liberty are 100% (5-0) (L30 days) to the over as an away fav

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Wings (Home)

The Wings are 50% (13-13) against the spread

The Wings are 50% (6-6) against the spread at home

The Wings are 50% (6-6) against the spread as a dog

The Wings are 60% (3-2) against the spread as a home dog

The Wings are 52% (13-12-1) to the under

The Wings are 66.7% (8-4) to the under at home

The Wings are 50% (6-6) to the over as a dog

The Wings are 60% (3-2) to the under as a home dog

The Wings are 36.4% (4-7) (L30 days) against the spread

The Wings are 20% (1-4) (L30 days) against the spread at home

The Wings are 50% (2-2) (L30 days) against the spread as a dog

The Wings are 50% (1-1) (L30 days) against the spread as a home dog

The Wings are 54.5% (6-5) (L30 days) to the over

The Wings are 60% (3-2) (L30 days) to the over at home

The Wings are 50% (2-2) (L30 days) to the over as a dog

The Wings are 50% (1-1) (L30 days) to the over as a home dog

Liberty (Away)

The Liberty are 44% (11-14-2) against the spread

The Liberty are 25% (3-9-2) against the spread away

The Liberty are 38.1% (8-13-1) against the spread as a fav

The Liberty are 11.1% (1-8-1) against the spread as an away fav

The Liberty are 63% (17-10) to the over

The Liberty are 85.7% (12-2) to the over away

The Liberty are 63.6% (14-8) to the over as a fav

The Liberty are 100% (10-0) to the over as an away fav

The Liberty are 30% (3-7-1) (L30 days) against the spread

The Liberty are 14.3% (1-6-1) (L30 days) against the spread away

The Liberty are 14.3% (1-6) (L30 days) against the spread as a fav

The Liberty are 0% (0-5) (L30 days) against the spread as an away fav

The Liberty are 72.7% (8-3) (L30 days) to the over

The Liberty are 75% (6-2) (L30 days) to the over away

The Liberty are 85.7% (6-1) (L30 days) to the over as a fav

The Liberty are 100% (5-0) (L30 days) to the over as an away fav

Past Matchups (Last 2 Seasons, Max 10) Follow global filters

Date	Team	Pts		Opponent	Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
07/07/26	Wings	88	@	Liberty	77	+4.5	175.5	-11	U 165 -10.5
2026	ORtg: 111.8 DRtg: 97.8 Pace: 78.7			ORtg: 97.8 DRtg: 111.8 Pace: 78.7
05/24/26	Wings	91	@	Liberty	76	+6.0	180.0	-15	U 167 -13.0
2026	ORtg: 123.5 DRtg: 103.2 Pace: 73.7			ORtg: 103.2 DRtg: 123.5 Pace: 73.7
08/08/25	Wings	77	vs.	Liberty	88	+11.0	170.5	+11	U 165 -5.5
2025	ORtg: 96.3 DRtg: 110.0 Pace: 80.0			ORtg: 110.0 DRtg: 96.3 Pace: 80.0
08/05/25	Wings	76	@	Liberty	85	+11.0	176.0	+9	U 161 -15.0
2025	ORtg: 101.2 DRtg: 113.2 Pace: 75.1			ORtg: 113.2 DRtg: 101.2 Pace: 75.1
07/28/25	Wings	92	vs.	Liberty	82	+8.0	173.0	-10	O 174 +1.0
2025	ORtg: 113.0 DRtg: 100.8 Pace: 81.4			ORtg: 100.8 DRtg: 113.0 Pace: 81.4

Wings as Home (2 games)		84.5	-	-	85.0	+9.5	171.8	+0.5 +9.0	U 169.5 -2.3
	ORtg: 104.7 DRtg: 105.4 Pace: 80.7			ORtg: 105.4 DRtg: 104.7 Pace: 80.7

All Games Avg (5 games)		84.8	-	-	81.6	+8.1	175.0	-3.2 +11.3	U 166.4 -8.6
	ORtg: 109.2 DRtg: 105.0 Pace: 77.8			ORtg: 105.0 DRtg: 109.2 Pace: 77.8

Algorithm	Model Side
Schedule Analysis Schedule strength and fatigue factors. High Confidence: 10-8 (55.6%)	Neutral
Differentials Normalized z-scored differentials. High Confidence: 11-13 (45.8%)	Neutral
Basic Stat Comp Basic 3-stat regression. High Confidence: 14-17 (45.2%)	Neutral
Net Ratings + Market Analysis Simple but Effective - 57.3% High-Confidence Win Rate High Confidence: 27-39 (40.9%)	Neutral
Cover Summary	No Bet
Opponent Defense Opponent and defensive metrics. Medium Confidence: 2-1 (66.7%)	Neutral
Norms and Averages Best Totals Model - 60.1% High-Confidence Win Rate Medium Confidence: 10-9 (52.6%)	Neutral
Total Summary	No Bet
OVERALL	No Spread Edge \| No Total Edge

WNBA Matchups: Predictions, Odds & Betting Trends

Final: 99 – 98 New York Liberty @ Dallas Wings window.TMB_PAGE_CONTEXT = { page: 'matchup', sport: "wnba", away_team: "New York Liberty", home_team: "Dallas Wings", game_date: null };

Odds Full WNBA odds board

Injury Report as of Jul 20, 11:47 PM ET NYL3 Out DAL2 Out

Notes

Liberty

Situational Factor(s)

Baller System(s)

Wings

Situational Factor(s)

Baller System(s)

Model Side

Model Total

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Algorithm Breakdown

Filters

Schedules

Liberty Schedule Follow global filters

Wings Schedule Follow global filters

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On / Off Court

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Records

Notable Trends

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Wings (Home)

Liberty (Away)

Past Matchups (Last 2 Seasons, Max 10) Follow global filters

Final: 99 – 98
New York Liberty @ Dallas Wings