WNBA Matchups: Predictions, Odds & Betting Trends

Final: 77 – 72
Portland Fire @ Seattle Storm

Fire: 8-12 (40.0%) | Market Rating: -4.09

Storm: 5-16 (23.8%) | Market Rating: -2.94 | Home Court: +0.3 pts

Line: -4.5

Total: 173.0

Open: -2.5

Open: 167.5

Team totals: Fire 84.5 · Storm 88.5

Odds Full WNBA odds board

Want to see only your books? Want to see where the sharp action is coming in? Become a member or log in.

Games
Conversions

Loading game odds...

Injury Report as of Jul 4, 11:47 PM ET PDX1 Out SEANo key injuries

Portland Fire

Player	MPG	Status	Reason
Karlie Samuelson	16.0	Out	Samuelson (finger) is listed as out for Saturday's game against Seattle. Updated Jun 28

Not in rotation / low minutes: Iyana Martin, Nika Muhl

Seattle Storm

Not in rotation / low minutes: Taina Mair

MPG this season's minutes per game.
’25 last season's average: he hasn't appeared yet this season.
Not in rotation / low minutes under 10 MPG in both seasons.
Updated the first report with his current status, looking back 120 days at most. “Or earlier” means it reaches the oldest report we have.

Notes

Fire

Situational Factor(s)

Coming off an overtime game

Travel fatigue, at least fourth straight game on the road

Rest advantage

Well rested (two or more days of rest)

Baller System(s)

No Revenge for Home Team

Don't Be Scared to Shoot

Storm

Situational Factor(s)

Rest disadvantage

In season revenge

Baller System(s)

Fade rusty road team off 4+ days rest

Baller Index Our Exclusive WNBA Baller Index is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions essentially look for teams that have over- or under-performed, in terms of points scored, relative to what would be expected based on their underlying metrics and who might be in for regression. While it does not factor in injuries, situational spots, or historic matchups into account, it can be a good place to start when thinking about a particular matchup.

Model Side

Fire

55.63% probability

Model Total

No clear side

View All Algorithms

Filters

Team Comparison Stats, Records and the sections tied to them follow these filters; each team's Schedule and Historical Matchups follow them when their switch is on.

Loading filters...

Schedules

Fire Schedule Follow global filters

Date	Team	Points		Opponent	Opp Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
07/11/26 2026	Fire	-	@	Dream	-	+12.5	174.0	-	-
07/09/26 2026	Fire	-	vs.	Aces	-	+10.0	175.0	-	-
07/04/26 2026	Fire	-	@	Storm	-	+4.5	173.0	-	-
06/28/26	Fire	123	@	Mystics	124 4OT	+7.0	167.5	+1	O 247 +79.5
2026	ORtg: 106.7 DRtg: 107.6 Pace: 102.4			ORtg: 107.6 DRtg: 106.7 Pace: 102.4
06/26/26	Fire	94	@	Sky	124	+6.0	173.5	+30	O 218 +44.5
2026	ORtg: 112.1 DRtg: 147.9 Pace: 83.8			ORtg: 147.9 DRtg: 112.1 Pace: 83.8
06/24/26	Fire	78	@	Sky	101	+3.5	172.0	+23	O 179 +7.0
2026	ORtg: 99.4 DRtg: 128.7 Pace: 78.5			ORtg: 128.7 DRtg: 99.4 Pace: 78.5
06/17/26	Fire	94	vs.	Storm	89	-4.0	162.5	-5	O 183 +20.5
2026	ORtg: 124.9 DRtg: 118.3 Pace: 75.2			ORtg: 118.3 DRtg: 124.9 Pace: 75.2
06/15/26	Fire	74	@	Lynx	107	+14.5	169.0	+33	O 181 +12.0
2026	ORtg: 91.3 DRtg: 132.0 Pace: 81.1			ORtg: 132.0 DRtg: 91.3 Pace: 81.1
06/13/26	Fire	84	vs.	Wings	83	+3.5	167.0	-1	P 167 0.0
2026	ORtg: 105.8 DRtg: 104.5 Pace: 79.4			ORtg: 104.5 DRtg: 105.8 Pace: 79.4
06/11/26	Fire	89	vs.	Aces	105	+11.5	170.5	+16	O 194 +23.5
2026	ORtg: 111.7 DRtg: 131.8 Pace: 79.7			ORtg: 131.8 DRtg: 111.7 Pace: 79.7
06/07/26	Fire	72	@	Sparks	89	+7.5	174.5	+17	U 161 -13.5
2026	ORtg: 90.7 DRtg: 112.1 Pace: 79.4			ORtg: 112.1 DRtg: 90.7 Pace: 79.4
06/05/26	Fire	72	vs.	Mercury	78	-3.5	159.0	+6	U 150 -9.0
2026	ORtg: 98.2 DRtg: 106.4 Pace: 73.3			ORtg: 106.4 DRtg: 98.2 Pace: 73.3
06/02/26	Fire	77	@	Valkyries	95	+9.0	159.5	+18	O 172 +12.5
2026	ORtg: 107.8 DRtg: 133.0 Pace: 71.4			ORtg: 133.0 DRtg: 107.8 Pace: 71.4

Away Games Avg (6 games)		86.3	-	-	106.7	+7.9	169.3	+20.3 -12.4	O 193.0 +23.7
	ORtg: 101.3 DRtg: 126.9 Pace: 82.8			ORtg: 126.9 DRtg: 101.3 Pace: 82.8

All Games Avg (10 games)		85.7	-	-	99.5	+5.5	167.5	+13.8 -8.3	O 185.2 +17.7
	ORtg: 104.9 DRtg: 122.2 Pace: 80.4			ORtg: 122.2 DRtg: 104.9 Pace: 80.4

Storm Schedule Follow global filters

Date	Team	Points		Opponent	Opp Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
07/09/26 2026	Storm	-	@	Dream	-	+12.5	170.0	-	-
07/06/26 2026	Storm	-	@	Sparks	-	+4.5	175.5	-	-
07/04/26 2026	Storm	-	vs.	Fire	-	-4.5	173.0	-	-
07/02/26	Storm	67	@	Mercury	90	+4.5	169.0	+23	U 157 -12.0
2026	ORtg: 89.7 DRtg: 120.5 Pace: 74.7			ORtg: 120.5 DRtg: 89.7 Pace: 74.7
06/27/26	Storm	105	vs.	Dream	90	+8.5	169.0	-15	O 195 +26.0
2026	ORtg: 126.7 DRtg: 108.6 Pace: 82.9			ORtg: 108.6 DRtg: 126.7 Pace: 82.9
06/25/26	Storm	99	vs.	Liberty	88	+8.5	167.5	-11	O 187 +19.5
2026	ORtg: 120.4 DRtg: 107.0 Pace: 82.2			ORtg: 107.0 DRtg: 120.4 Pace: 82.2
06/22/26	Storm	110	vs.	Wings	112 OT	+9.5	170.5	+2	O 222 +51.5
2026	ORtg: 121.0 DRtg: 123.2 Pace: 80.8			ORtg: 123.2 DRtg: 121.0 Pace: 80.8
06/20/26	Storm	73	@	Mercury	93	+6.5	163.0	+20	O 166 +3.0
2026	ORtg: 94.3 DRtg: 120.2 Pace: 77.4			ORtg: 120.2 DRtg: 94.3 Pace: 77.4
06/17/26	Storm	89	@	Fire	94	+4.0	162.5	+5	O 183 +20.5
2026	ORtg: 118.3 DRtg: 124.9 Pace: 75.2			ORtg: 124.9 DRtg: 118.3 Pace: 75.2
06/12/26	Storm	72	vs.	Valkyries	76	+9.5	158.0	+4	U 148 -10.0
2026	ORtg: 95.7 DRtg: 101.0 Pace: 75.2			ORtg: 101.0 DRtg: 95.7 Pace: 75.2
06/10/26	Storm	83	vs.	Sparks	88	+7.5	169.5	+5	O 171 +1.5
2026	ORtg: 104.8 DRtg: 111.1 Pace: 79.2			ORtg: 111.1 DRtg: 104.8 Pace: 79.2
06/08/26	Storm	91	@	Aces	101	+15.5	163.0	+10	O 192 +29.0
2026	ORtg: 113.8 DRtg: 126.3 Pace: 80.0			ORtg: 126.3 DRtg: 113.8 Pace: 80.0
06/06/26	Storm	68	@	Lynx	88	+13.5	162.5	+20	U 156 -6.5
2026	ORtg: 87.9 DRtg: 113.8 Pace: 77.3			ORtg: 113.8 DRtg: 87.9 Pace: 77.3

Home Games Avg (5 games)		93.8	-	-	90.8	+8.7	166.9	-3.0 +11.7	O 184.6 +17.7
	ORtg: 113.7 DRtg: 110.2 Pace: 80.1			ORtg: 110.2 DRtg: 113.7 Pace: 80.1

All Games Avg (10 games)		85.7	-	-	92.0	+8.8	165.5	+6.3 +2.5	O 177.7 +12.3
	ORtg: 107.3 DRtg: 115.7 Pace: 78.5			ORtg: 115.7 DRtg: 107.3 Pace: 78.5

Team Comparison Stats Loading...

Loading team comparison stats...

On / Off Court

Follows the Team Comparison Stats filters above.

Next Player Up

Records

Loading records...

Notable Trends

The Storm are 83.3% (5-1) (L30 days) against the spread at home

The Fire are 71.4% (5-2-1) (L30 days) to the over as a dog

View All Records

Storm (Home)

The Storm are 50% (11-11) against the spread

The Storm are 66.7% (8-4) against the spread at home

The Storm are 33.3% (1-2) against the spread as a fav

The Storm are 33.3% (1-2) against the spread as a home fav

The Storm are 54.5% (12-10) to the under

The Storm are 50% (6-6) to the over at home

The Storm are 100% (3-0) to the under as a fav

The Storm are 100% (3-0) to the under as a home fav

The Storm are 54.5% (6-5) (L30 days) against the spread

The Storm are 83.3% (5-1) (L30 days) against the spread at home

The Storm are 0% (0-1) (L30 days) against the spread as a fav

The Storm are 0% (0-1) (L30 days) against the spread as a home fav

The Storm are 63.6% (7-4) (L30 days) to the over

The Storm are 66.7% (4-2) (L30 days) to the over at home

The Storm are 100% (1-0) (L30 days) to the under as a fav

The Storm are 100% (1-0) (L30 days) to the under as a home fav

Fire (Away)

The Fire are 42.9% (9-12) against the spread

The Fire are 40% (4-6) against the spread away

The Fire are 41.2% (7-10) against the spread as a dog

The Fire are 40% (4-6) against the spread as an away dog

The Fire are 60% (12-8-1) to the over

The Fire are 60% (6-4) to the over away

The Fire are 68.8% (11-5-1) to the over as a dog

The Fire are 60% (6-4) to the over as an away dog

The Fire are 40% (4-6) (L30 days) against the spread

The Fire are 33.3% (2-4) (L30 days) against the spread away

The Fire are 37.5% (3-5) (L30 days) against the spread as a dog

The Fire are 33.3% (2-4) (L30 days) against the spread as an away dog

The Fire are 66.7% (6-3-1) (L30 days) to the over

The Fire are 66.7% (4-2) (L30 days) to the over away

The Fire are 71.4% (5-2-1) (L30 days) to the over as a dog

The Fire are 66.7% (4-2) (L30 days) to the over as an away dog

Past Matchups (Last 2 Seasons, Max 10) Follow global filters

Date	Team	Pts		Opponent	Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
06/17/26	Storm	89	@	Fire	94	+4.0	162.5	+5	O 183 +20.5
2026	ORtg: 118.3 DRtg: 124.9 Pace: 75.2			ORtg: 124.9 DRtg: 118.3 Pace: 75.2

All Games Avg (1 games)		89.0	-	-	94.0	+4.0	162.5	+5.0 -1.0	O 183.0 +20.5
	ORtg: 118.3 DRtg: 124.9 Pace: 75.2			ORtg: 124.9 DRtg: 118.3 Pace: 75.2

Algorithm	Model Side
Schedule Analysis Schedule strength and fatigue factors. High Confidence: 6-4 (60%)	Neutral
Differentials Normalized z-scored differentials. High Confidence: 6-9 (40%)	Neutral
Basic Stat Comp Basic 3-stat regression. High Confidence: 8-13 (38.1%)	Neutral
Net Ratings + Market Analysis Simple but Effective - 57.3% High-Confidence Win Rate High Confidence: 18-30 (37.5%)	Fire (2x)
Cover Summary	Fire
Opponent Defense Opponent and defensive metrics. Medium Confidence: 2-1 (66.7%)	Neutral
Norms and Averages Best Totals Model - 60.1% High-Confidence Win Rate Medium Confidence: 9-8 (52.9%)	Neutral
Total Summary	No Bet
OVERALL	Fire \| No Total Edge

WNBA Matchups: Predictions, Odds & Betting Trends

Final: 77 – 72 Portland Fire @ Seattle Storm window.TMB_PAGE_CONTEXT = { page: 'matchup', sport: "wnba", away_team: "Portland Fire", home_team: "Seattle Storm", game_date: null };

Odds Full WNBA odds board

Injury Report as of Jul 4, 11:47 PM ET PDX1 Out SEANo key injuries

Notes

Fire

Situational Factor(s)

Baller System(s)

Storm

Situational Factor(s)

Baller System(s)

Model Side

Model Total

View All Algorithms

Algorithm Breakdown

Filters

Schedules

Fire Schedule Follow global filters

Storm Schedule Follow global filters

Team Comparison Stats Loading...

On / Off Court

Next Player Up

Records

Notable Trends

View All Records

Storm (Home)

Fire (Away)

Past Matchups (Last 2 Seasons, Max 10) Follow global filters

Final: 77 – 72
Portland Fire @ Seattle Storm