WNBA Matchups: Predictions, Odds & Betting Trends

Final: 70 – 85
Phoenix Mercury @ Dallas Wings

Mercury: 4-9 (30.8%) | Market Rating: +0.19

Wings: 7-4 (63.6%) | Market Rating: -0.65 | Home Court: +2.2 pts

Line: -6.5

Total: 169.0

Team totals: Mercury 81.5 · Wings 87.5

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Injury Report as of Jun 11, 11:47 PM ET PHX2 Out1 Questionable DAL1 Out

Phoenix Mercury

Player	MPG	Status	Reason
Kathryn Westbeld	17.6 ’25	Out	Knee Updated May 17 or earlier
Sami Whitcomb	17.4	Out	Whitcomb will undergo an arthroscopy on Thursday to remove a loose body in her left knee. She will be re-evaluated in four to six weeks, Shane Young of the Mercury's official site reports. Updated May 17 or earlier
Kiana Williams	12.9	Questionable	day-to-day Updated Jun 11

Not in rotation / low minutes: Eszter Ratkai, Ines Pitarch-Granel, Marta Suarez

Dallas Wings

Player	MPG	Status	Reason
Odyssey Sims	14.2	Out	Sims (ankle) is out for Thursday's game versus Phoenix. Updated Jun 10

MPG this season's minutes per game.
’25 last season's average: he hasn't appeared yet this season.
Not in rotation / low minutes under 10 MPG in both seasons.
Updated the first report with his current status, looking back 120 days at most. “Or earlier” means it reaches the oldest report we have.

Notes

Mercury

Situational Factor(s)

Travel fatigue, at least fourth straight game on the road

Baller System(s)

Tale of Two Dogs

Wings

Baller System(s)

Don't Be Scared to Shoot

Baller Index Our Exclusive WNBA Baller Index is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions essentially look for teams that have over- or under-performed, in terms of points scored, relative to what would be expected based on their underlying metrics and who might be in for regression. While it does not factor in injuries, situational spots, or historic matchups into account, it can be a good place to start when thinking about a particular matchup.

Model Side

Mercury

55.63% probability

Model Total

No clear side

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Filters

Team Comparison Stats, Records and the sections tied to them follow these filters; each team's Schedule and Historical Matchups follow them when their switch is on.

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Schedules

Mercury Schedule Follow global filters

Date	Team	Points		Opponent	Opp Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
06/17/26 2026	Mercury	-	vs.	Aces	-	+6.5	171.5	-	-
06/13/26 2026	Mercury	-	vs.	Sparks	-	+1.5	172.0	-	-
06/11/26 2026	Mercury	-	@	Wings	-	+6.5	169.0	-	-
06/09/26	Mercury	81	@	Valkyries	87	+7.5	162.0	+6	O 168 +6.0
2026	ORtg: 110.3 DRtg: 118.5 Pace: 73.4			ORtg: 118.5 DRtg: 110.3 Pace: 73.4
06/05/26	Mercury	78	@	Fire	72	+3.5	159.0	-6	U 150 -9.0
2026	ORtg: 106.4 DRtg: 98.2 Pace: 73.3			ORtg: 98.2 DRtg: 106.4 Pace: 73.3
06/03/26	Mercury	72	@	Storm	68	-7.5	160.5	-4	U 140 -20.5
2026	ORtg: 89.4 DRtg: 84.5 Pace: 80.5			ORtg: 84.5 DRtg: 89.4 Pace: 80.5
06/01/26	Mercury	77	vs.	Lynx	111	+2.5	166.5	+34	O 188 +21.5
2026	ORtg: 102.1 DRtg: 147.2 Pace: 75.4			ORtg: 147.2 DRtg: 102.1 Pace: 75.4
05/29/26	Mercury	68	@	Liberty	75	+5.5	170.5	+7	U 143 -27.5
2026	ORtg: 91.0 DRtg: 100.3 Pace: 74.8			ORtg: 100.3 DRtg: 91.0 Pace: 74.8
05/27/26	Mercury	74	@	Liberty	84	+3.5	169.5	+10	U 158 -11.5
2026	ORtg: 97.6 DRtg: 110.8 Pace: 75.8			ORtg: 110.8 DRtg: 97.6 Pace: 75.8
05/24/26	Mercury	80	@	Dream	82	+5.5	168.5	+2	U 162 -6.5
2026	ORtg: 102.4 DRtg: 104.9 Pace: 78.2			ORtg: 104.9 DRtg: 102.4 Pace: 78.2
05/21/26	Mercury	88	vs.	Sparks	97	-2.5	178.5	+9	O 185 +6.5
2026	ORtg: 109.0 DRtg: 120.2 Pace: 80.7			ORtg: 120.2 DRtg: 109.0 Pace: 80.7
05/19/26	Mercury	90	vs.	Tempo	98	-7.5	169.5	+8	O 188 +18.5
2026	ORtg: 110.8 DRtg: 120.7 Pace: 81.2			ORtg: 120.7 DRtg: 110.8 Pace: 81.2
05/15/26	Mercury	91	vs.	Sky	83	-3.5	165.5	-8	O 174 +8.5
2026	ORtg: 111.8 DRtg: 102.0 Pace: 81.4			ORtg: 102.0 DRtg: 111.8 Pace: 81.4

Away Games Avg (6 games)		75.5	-	-	78.0	+3.0	165.0	+2.5 +0.5	U 153.5 -11.5
	ORtg: 99.5 DRtg: 102.9 Pace: 76.0			ORtg: 102.9 DRtg: 99.5 Pace: 76.0

All Games Avg (10 games)		79.9	-	-	85.7	+0.7	167.0	+5.8 -5.1	U 165.6 -1.4
	ORtg: 103.1 DRtg: 110.7 Pace: 77.5			ORtg: 110.7 DRtg: 103.1 Pace: 77.5

Wings Schedule Follow global filters

Date	Team	Points		Opponent	Opp Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
06/15/26 2026	Wings	-	vs.	Aces	-	+3.0	177.5	-	-
06/13/26 2026	Wings	-	@	Fire	-	-3.5	167.0	-	-
06/11/26 2026	Wings	-	vs.	Mercury	-	-6.5	169.0	-	-
06/09/26	Wings	76	@	Lynx	100	+4.5	171.5	+24	O 176 +4.5
2026	ORtg: 91.4 DRtg: 120.2 Pace: 83.2			ORtg: 120.2 DRtg: 91.4 Pace: 83.2
06/05/26	Wings	104	@	Sparks	96	-2.5	178.5	-8	O 200 +21.5
2026	ORtg: 126.2 DRtg: 116.5 Pace: 82.4			ORtg: 116.5 DRtg: 126.2 Pace: 82.4
06/01/26	Wings	79	vs.	Storm	56	-13.0	166.5	-23	U 135 -31.5
2026	ORtg: 101.8 DRtg: 72.2 Pace: 77.6			ORtg: 72.2 DRtg: 101.8 Pace: 77.6
05/28/26	Wings	95	vs.	Aces	87	+5.5	176.0	-8	O 182 +6.0
2026	ORtg: 119.7 DRtg: 109.7 Pace: 79.3			ORtg: 109.7 DRtg: 119.7 Pace: 79.3
05/24/26	Wings	91	@	Liberty	76	+6.0	180.0	-15	U 167 -13.0
2026	ORtg: 123.5 DRtg: 103.2 Pace: 73.7			ORtg: 103.2 DRtg: 123.5 Pace: 73.7
05/22/26	Wings	69	@	Dream	86	+5.5	173.5	+17	U 155 -18.5
2026	ORtg: 87.6 DRtg: 109.2 Pace: 78.8			ORtg: 109.2 DRtg: 87.6 Pace: 78.8
05/20/26	Wings	99	@	Sky	89	-2.5	169.0	-10	O 188 +19.0
2026	ORtg: 125.7 DRtg: 113.0 Pace: 78.7			ORtg: 113.0 DRtg: 125.7 Pace: 78.7
05/18/26	Wings	92	vs.	Mystics	69	-3.5	171.0	-23	U 161 -10.0
2026	ORtg: 127.6 DRtg: 95.7 Pace: 72.1			ORtg: 95.7 DRtg: 127.6 Pace: 72.1
05/14/26	Wings	86	vs.	Lynx	90	-4.0	178.5	+4	U 176 -2.5
2026	ORtg: 113.6 DRtg: 118.9 Pace: 75.7			ORtg: 118.9 DRtg: 113.6 Pace: 75.7
05/12/26	Wings	72	vs.	Dream	77	+1.5	180.0	+5	U 149 -31.0
2026	ORtg: 96.2 DRtg: 102.9 Pace: 74.8			ORtg: 102.9 DRtg: 96.2 Pace: 74.8

Home Games Avg (5 games)		84.8	-	-	75.8	-2.7	174.4	-9.0 +6.3	U 160.6 -13.8
	ORtg: 111.8 DRtg: 99.9 Pace: 75.9			ORtg: 99.9 DRtg: 111.8 Pace: 75.9

All Games Avg (10 games)		86.3	-	-	82.6	-0.3	174.5	-3.7 +3.5	U 168.9 -5.6
	ORtg: 111.3 DRtg: 106.1 Pace: 77.6			ORtg: 106.1 DRtg: 111.3 Pace: 77.6

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On / Off Court

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Records

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Notable Trends

The Wings are 83.3% (5-1) against the spread as a fav

The Wings are 75% (3-1) against the spread as a home fav

The Wings are 83.3% (5-1) to the under at home

The Wings are 100% (4-0) to the under as a home fav

The Wings are 83.3% (5-1) (L30 days) against the spread as a fav

The Wings are 75% (3-1) (L30 days) against the spread as a home fav

The Wings are 83.3% (5-1) (L30 days) to the under at home

The Wings are 100% (4-0) (L30 days) to the under as a home fav

The Mercury are 77.8% (7-2) to the under away

The Mercury are 75% (6-2) to the under as an away dog

The Mercury are 85.7% (6-1) (L30 days) to the under away

The Mercury are 71.4% (5-2) (L30 days) to the under as a dog

The Mercury are 83.3% (5-1) (L30 days) to the under as an away dog

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Wings (Home)

The Wings are 66.7% (8-4) against the spread

The Wings are 66.7% (4-2) against the spread at home

The Wings are 83.3% (5-1) against the spread as a fav

The Wings are 75% (3-1) against the spread as a home fav

The Wings are 58.3% (7-5) to the under

The Wings are 83.3% (5-1) to the under at home

The Wings are 66.7% (4-2) to the under as a fav

The Wings are 100% (4-0) to the under as a home fav

The Wings are 63.6% (7-4) (L30 days) against the spread

The Wings are 66.7% (4-2) (L30 days) against the spread at home

The Wings are 83.3% (5-1) (L30 days) against the spread as a fav

The Wings are 75% (3-1) (L30 days) against the spread as a home fav

The Wings are 63.6% (7-4) (L30 days) to the under

The Wings are 83.3% (5-1) (L30 days) to the under at home

The Wings are 66.7% (4-2) (L30 days) to the under as a fav

The Wings are 100% (4-0) (L30 days) to the under as a home fav

Mercury (Away)

The Mercury are 35.7% (5-9) against the spread

The Mercury are 44.4% (4-5) against the spread away

The Mercury are 44.4% (4-5) against the spread as a dog

The Mercury are 50% (4-4) against the spread as an away dog

The Mercury are 50% (7-7) to the over

The Mercury are 77.8% (7-2) to the under away

The Mercury are 66.7% (6-3) to the under as a dog

The Mercury are 75% (6-2) to the under as an away dog

The Mercury are 33.3% (4-8) (L30 days) against the spread

The Mercury are 42.9% (3-4) (L30 days) against the spread away

The Mercury are 42.9% (3-4) (L30 days) against the spread as a dog

The Mercury are 50% (3-3) (L30 days) against the spread as an away dog

The Mercury are 50% (6-6) (L30 days) to the over

The Mercury are 85.7% (6-1) (L30 days) to the under away

The Mercury are 71.4% (5-2) (L30 days) to the under as a dog

The Mercury are 83.3% (5-1) (L30 days) to the under as an away dog

Past Matchups (Last 2 Seasons, Max 10) Follow global filters

Date	Team	Pts		Opponent	Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
09/11/25	Wings	97	vs.	Mercury	76	+5.5	167.5	-21	O 173 +5.5
2025	ORtg: 125.6 DRtg: 98.4 Pace: 77.2			ORtg: 98.4 DRtg: 125.6 Pace: 77.2
07/07/25	Wings	72	@	Mercury	102	+6.0	163.5	+30	O 174 +10.5
2025	ORtg: 86.9 DRtg: 123.1 Pace: 82.9			ORtg: 123.1 DRtg: 86.9 Pace: 82.9
07/03/25	Wings	98	vs.	Mercury	89	+11.5	165.0	-9	O 187 +22.0
2025	ORtg: 118.9 DRtg: 108.0 Pace: 82.4			ORtg: 108.0 DRtg: 118.9 Pace: 82.4
06/11/25	Wings	80	@	Mercury	93	+7.0	167.0	+13	O 173 +6.0
2025	ORtg: 104.0 DRtg: 120.9 Pace: 76.9			ORtg: 120.9 DRtg: 104.0 Pace: 76.9

Wings as Home (2 games)		97.5	-	-	82.5	+8.5	166.3	-15.0 +23.5	O 180.0 +13.8
	ORtg: 122.3 DRtg: 103.2 Pace: 79.8			ORtg: 103.2 DRtg: 122.3 Pace: 79.8

All Games Avg (4 games)		86.8	-	-	90.0	+7.5	165.8	+3.3 +4.3	O 176.8 +11.0
	ORtg: 108.9 DRtg: 112.6 Pace: 79.8			ORtg: 112.6 DRtg: 108.9 Pace: 79.8

Algorithm	Model Side
Schedule Analysis Schedule strength and fatigue factors. High Confidence: 3-2 (60%)	Neutral
Differentials Normalized z-scored differentials. High Confidence: 4-7 (36.4%)	Neutral
Basic Stat Comp Basic 3-stat regression. High Confidence: 4-7 (36.4%)	Mercury (2x)
Net Ratings + Market Analysis Simple but Effective - 57.3% High-Confidence Win Rate High Confidence: 9-14 (39.1%)	Neutral
Cover Summary	Mercury
Opponent Defense Opponent and defensive metrics. Medium Confidence: 2-1 (66.7%)	Neutral
Norms and Averages Best Totals Model - 60.1% High-Confidence Win Rate Medium Confidence: 4-7 (36.4%)	Neutral
Total Summary	No Bet
OVERALL	Mercury \| No Total Edge

WNBA Matchups: Predictions, Odds & Betting Trends

Final: 70 – 85 Phoenix Mercury @ Dallas Wings window.TMB_PAGE_CONTEXT = { page: 'matchup', sport: "wnba", away_team: "Phoenix Mercury", home_team: "Dallas Wings", game_date: null };

Odds Full WNBA odds board

Injury Report as of Jun 11, 11:47 PM ET PHX2 Out1 Questionable DAL1 Out

Notes

Mercury

Situational Factor(s)

Baller System(s)

Wings

Baller System(s)

Model Side

Model Total

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Algorithm Breakdown

Filters

Schedules

Mercury Schedule Follow global filters

Wings Schedule Follow global filters

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On / Off Court

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Records

Notable Trends

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Wings (Home)

Mercury (Away)

Past Matchups (Last 2 Seasons, Max 10) Follow global filters

Final: 70 – 85
Phoenix Mercury @ Dallas Wings