WNBA Matchups: Predictions, Odds & Betting Trends

Final: 72 – 68
Phoenix Mercury @ Seattle Storm

Mercury: 2-8 (20.0%) | Market Rating: +1.20

Storm: 3-7 (30.0%) | Market Rating: -1.70 | Home Court: +0.6 pts

Line: +7.5

Total: 160.5

Team totals: Mercury 84.5 · Storm 76.5

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Games
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Injury Report as of Jun 3, 11:47 PM ET PHX3 Out SEA2 Out

Phoenix Mercury

Player	MPG	Status	Reason
Kathryn Westbeld	17.6 ’25	Out	Knee Updated May 17 or earlier
Sami Whitcomb	17.4	Out	Whitcomb will undergo an arthroscopy on Thursday to remove a loose body in her left knee. She will be re-evaluated in four to six weeks, Shane Young of the Mercury's official site reports. Updated May 17 or earlier
Shay Ciezki	15.6	Out	Ciezki (coach's decision) is out for Wednesday's game in Seattle. Updated Jun 3

Not in rotation / low minutes: Eszter Ratkai, Ines Pitarch-Granel, Marta Suarez

Seattle Storm

Player	MPG	Status	Reason
Dominique Malonga	26.4	Out	Malonga (concussion) has been ruled out for Wednesday's game against the Mercury. Updated May 19
Ezi Magbegor	20.4	Out	The Storm announced Monday that Magbegor is expected to miss at least 6-8 weeks due to a right foot injury, Alexa Philippou of ESPN.com reports. Updated May 17 or earlier

Not in rotation / low minutes: Taina Mair, Taylor Thierry

MPG this season's minutes per game.
’25 last season's average: he hasn't appeared yet this season.
Not in rotation / low minutes under 10 MPG in both seasons.
Updated the first report with his current status, looking back 120 days at most. “Or earlier” means it reaches the oldest report we have.

Notes

Mercury

Baller System(s)

Bad Luck Continuation

Storm

Baller System(s)

Long Rest Lookahead

Baller Index Our Exclusive WNBA Baller Index is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions essentially look for teams that have over- or under-performed, in terms of points scored, relative to what would be expected based on their underlying metrics and who might be in for regression. While it does not factor in injuries, situational spots, or historic matchups into account, it can be a good place to start when thinking about a particular matchup.

Model Side

Mercury

55.63% probability

Model Total

No clear side

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Filters

Team Comparison Stats, Records and the sections tied to them follow these filters; each team's Schedule and Historical Matchups follow them when their switch is on.

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Schedules

Mercury Schedule Follow global filters

Date	Team	Points		Opponent	Opp Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
06/09/26 2026	Mercury	-	@	Valkyries	-	+7.5	162.0	-	-
06/05/26 2026	Mercury	-	@	Fire	-	+3.5	159.0	-	-
06/03/26 2026	Mercury	-	@	Storm	-	-7.5	160.5	-	-
06/01/26	Mercury	77	vs.	Lynx	111	+2.5	166.5	+34	O 188 +21.5
2026	ORtg: 102.1 DRtg: 147.2 Pace: 75.4			ORtg: 147.2 DRtg: 102.1 Pace: 75.4
05/29/26	Mercury	68	@	Liberty	75	+5.5	170.5	+7	U 143 -27.5
2026	ORtg: 91.0 DRtg: 100.3 Pace: 74.8			ORtg: 100.3 DRtg: 91.0 Pace: 74.8
05/27/26	Mercury	74	@	Liberty	84	+3.5	169.5	+10	U 158 -11.5
2026	ORtg: 97.6 DRtg: 110.8 Pace: 75.8			ORtg: 110.8 DRtg: 97.6 Pace: 75.8
05/24/26	Mercury	80	@	Dream	82	+5.5	168.5	+2	U 162 -6.5
2026	ORtg: 102.4 DRtg: 104.9 Pace: 78.2			ORtg: 104.9 DRtg: 102.4 Pace: 78.2
05/21/26	Mercury	88	vs.	Sparks	97	-2.5	178.5	+9	O 185 +6.5
2026	ORtg: 109.0 DRtg: 120.2 Pace: 80.7			ORtg: 120.2 DRtg: 109.0 Pace: 80.7
05/19/26	Mercury	90	vs.	Tempo	98	-7.5	169.5	+8	O 188 +18.5
2026	ORtg: 110.8 DRtg: 120.7 Pace: 81.2			ORtg: 120.7 DRtg: 110.8 Pace: 81.2
05/15/26	Mercury	91	vs.	Sky	83	-3.5	165.5	-8	O 174 +8.5
2026	ORtg: 111.8 DRtg: 102.0 Pace: 81.4			ORtg: 102.0 DRtg: 111.8 Pace: 81.4
05/12/26	Mercury	84	vs.	Lynx	88	-4.5	169.0	+4	O 172 +3.0
2026	ORtg: 102.6 DRtg: 107.5 Pace: 81.9			ORtg: 107.5 DRtg: 102.6 Pace: 81.9
05/10/26	Mercury	79	@	Valkyries	95	+2.5	158.5	+16	O 174 +15.5
2026	ORtg: 106.0 DRtg: 127.4 Pace: 74.6			ORtg: 127.4 DRtg: 106.0 Pace: 74.6
05/09/26	Mercury	99	@	Aces	66	+9.5	167.5	-33	U 165 -2.5
2026	ORtg: 119.6 DRtg: 79.7 Pace: 82.8			ORtg: 79.7 DRtg: 119.6 Pace: 82.8

Away Games Avg (5 games)		80.0	-	-	80.4	+5.3	166.9	+0.4 +4.9	U 160.4 -6.5
	ORtg: 103.3 DRtg: 104.6 Pace: 77.2			ORtg: 104.6 DRtg: 103.3 Pace: 77.2

All Games Avg (10 games)		83.0	-	-	87.9	+1.1	168.4	+4.9 -3.8	O 170.9 +2.6
	ORtg: 105.3 DRtg: 112.1 Pace: 78.7			ORtg: 112.1 DRtg: 105.3 Pace: 78.7

Storm Schedule Follow global filters

Date	Team	Points		Opponent	Opp Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
06/08/26 2026	Storm	-	@	Aces	-	+15.5	163.0	-	-
06/06/26 2026	Storm	-	@	Lynx	-	+13.5	162.5	-	-
06/03/26 2026	Storm	-	vs.	Mercury	-	+7.5	160.5	-	-
06/01/26	Storm	56	@	Wings	79	+13.0	166.5	+23	U 135 -31.5
2026	ORtg: 72.2 DRtg: 101.8 Pace: 77.6			ORtg: 101.8 DRtg: 72.2 Pace: 77.6
05/30/26	Storm	72	@	Tempo	93	+6.5	171.5	+21	U 165 -6.5
2026	ORtg: 92.1 DRtg: 119.0 Pace: 78.2			ORtg: 119.0 DRtg: 92.1 Pace: 78.2
05/27/26	Storm	64	vs.	Mystics	78	+3.5	160.5	+14	U 142 -18.5
2026	ORtg: 94.1 DRtg: 114.7 Pace: 68.0			ORtg: 114.7 DRtg: 94.1 Pace: 68.0
05/24/26	Storm	97	vs.	Mystics	85	+4.5	157.5	-12	O 182 +24.5
2026	ORtg: 121.0 DRtg: 106.0 Pace: 80.2			ORtg: 106.0 DRtg: 121.0 Pace: 80.2
05/22/26	Storm	77	vs.	Sun	59	-1.5	165.5	-18	U 136 -29.5
2026	ORtg: 105.2 DRtg: 80.6 Pace: 73.2			ORtg: 80.6 DRtg: 105.2 Pace: 73.2
05/20/26	Storm	78	vs.	Sun	80	-1.0	168.5	+2	U 158 -10.5
2026	ORtg: 100.2 DRtg: 102.7 Pace: 77.9			ORtg: 102.7 DRtg: 100.2 Pace: 77.9
05/17/26	Storm	78	@	Fever	89	+11.5	177.0	+11	U 167 -10.0
2026	ORtg: 92.5 DRtg: 105.6 Pace: 84.3			ORtg: 105.6 DRtg: 92.5 Pace: 84.3
05/13/26	Storm	73	@	Tempo	86	+2.5	167.5	+13	U 159 -8.5
2026	ORtg: 92.8 DRtg: 109.4 Pace: 78.6			ORtg: 109.4 DRtg: 92.8 Pace: 78.6
05/10/26	Storm	89	@	Sun	82	+1.5	164.0	-7	O 171 +7.0
2026	ORtg: 107.3 DRtg: 98.9 Pace: 82.9			ORtg: 98.9 DRtg: 107.3 Pace: 82.9
05/08/26	Storm	80	vs.	Valkyries	91	+5.5	156.5	+11	O 171 +14.5
2026	ORtg: 106.4 DRtg: 121.1 Pace: 75.2			ORtg: 121.1 DRtg: 106.4 Pace: 75.2

Home Games Avg (5 games)		79.2	-	-	78.6	+2.2	161.7	-0.6 +2.8	U 157.8 -3.9
	ORtg: 105.4 DRtg: 105.0 Pace: 74.9			ORtg: 105.0 DRtg: 105.4 Pace: 74.9

All Games Avg (10 games)		76.4	-	-	82.2	+4.6	165.5	+5.8 -1.2	U 158.6 -6.9
	ORtg: 98.4 DRtg: 106.0 Pace: 77.6			ORtg: 106.0 DRtg: 98.4 Pace: 77.6

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On / Off Court

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Records

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Notable Trends

The Storm are 72.7% (8-3) to the under

The Storm are 72.7% (8-3) (L30 days) to the under

The Mercury are 27.3% (3-8) against the spread

The Mercury are 20% (1-4) against the spread as a fav

The Mercury are 83.3% (5-1) to the under away

The Mercury are 80% (4-1) to the over as a fav

The Mercury are 27.3% (3-8) (L30 days) against the spread

The Mercury are 20% (1-4) (L30 days) against the spread as a fav

The Mercury are 83.3% (5-1) (L30 days) to the under away

The Mercury are 80% (4-1) (L30 days) to the over as a fav

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Storm (Home)

The Storm are 45.5% (5-6) against the spread

The Storm are 50% (3-3) against the spread at home

The Storm are 44.4% (4-5) against the spread as a dog

The Storm are 50% (2-2) against the spread as a home dog

The Storm are 72.7% (8-3) to the under

The Storm are 66.7% (4-2) to the under at home

The Storm are 66.7% (6-3) to the under as a dog

The Storm are 50% (2-2) to the over as a home dog

The Storm are 45.5% (5-6) (L30 days) against the spread

The Storm are 50% (3-3) (L30 days) against the spread at home

The Storm are 44.4% (4-5) (L30 days) against the spread as a dog

The Storm are 50% (2-2) (L30 days) against the spread as a home dog

The Storm are 72.7% (8-3) (L30 days) to the under

The Storm are 66.7% (4-2) (L30 days) to the under at home

The Storm are 66.7% (6-3) (L30 days) to the under as a dog

The Storm are 50% (2-2) (L30 days) to the over as a home dog

Mercury (Away)

The Mercury are 27.3% (3-8) against the spread

The Mercury are 33.3% (2-4) against the spread away

The Mercury are 20% (1-4) against the spread as a fav

The Mercury are 0% (0-1) against the spread as an away fav

The Mercury are 54.5% (6-5) to the over

The Mercury are 83.3% (5-1) to the under away

The Mercury are 80% (4-1) to the over as a fav

The Mercury are 100% (1-0) to the under as an away fav

The Mercury are 27.3% (3-8) (L30 days) against the spread

The Mercury are 33.3% (2-4) (L30 days) against the spread away

The Mercury are 20% (1-4) (L30 days) against the spread as a fav

The Mercury are 0% (0-1) (L30 days) against the spread as an away fav

The Mercury are 54.5% (6-5) (L30 days) to the over

The Mercury are 83.3% (5-1) (L30 days) to the under away

The Mercury are 80% (4-1) (L30 days) to the over as a fav

The Mercury are 100% (1-0) (L30 days) to the under as an away fav

Past Matchups (Last 2 Seasons, Max 10) Follow global filters

Date	Team	Pts		Opponent	Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
08/17/25	Storm	82	vs.	Mercury	85	-2.0	164.5	+3	O 167 +2.5
2025	ORtg: 96.3 DRtg: 99.8 Pace: 85.1			ORtg: 99.8 DRtg: 96.3 Pace: 85.1
06/07/25	Storm	89	@	Mercury	77	-5.5	156.0	-12	O 166 +10.0
2025	ORtg: 120.7 DRtg: 104.4 Pace: 73.8			ORtg: 104.4 DRtg: 120.7 Pace: 73.8
05/23/25	Storm	77	vs.	Mercury	70	-6.0	157.5	-7	U 147 -10.5
2025	ORtg: 97.4 DRtg: 88.5 Pace: 79.1			ORtg: 88.5 DRtg: 97.4 Pace: 79.1
05/17/25	Storm	59	@	Mercury	81	-6.0	156.0	+22	U 140 -16.0
2025	ORtg: 77.5 DRtg: 106.4 Pace: 76.1			ORtg: 106.4 DRtg: 77.5 Pace: 76.1

Storm as Home (2 games)		79.5	-	-	77.5	-4.0	161.0	-2.0 -2.0	U 157.0 -4.0
	ORtg: 96.8 DRtg: 94.2 Pace: 82.1			ORtg: 94.2 DRtg: 96.8 Pace: 82.1

All Games Avg (4 games)		76.8	-	-	78.3	-4.9	158.5	+1.5 -6.4	U 155.0 -3.5
	ORtg: 98.0 DRtg: 99.8 Pace: 78.5			ORtg: 99.8 DRtg: 98.0 Pace: 78.5

Algorithm	Model Side
Schedule Analysis Schedule strength and fatigue factors. High Confidence: 3-2 (60%)	Neutral
Differentials Normalized z-scored differentials. High Confidence: 1-4 (20%)	Neutral
Basic Stat Comp Basic 3-stat regression. High Confidence: 2-4 (33.3%)	Neutral
Net Ratings + Market Analysis Simple but Effective - 57.3% High-Confidence Win Rate High Confidence: 5-7 (41.7%)	Mercury (2x)
Cover Summary	Mercury
Opponent Defense Opponent and defensive metrics. Medium Confidence: 2-1 (66.7%)	Neutral
Norms and Averages Best Totals Model - 60.1% High-Confidence Win Rate Medium Confidence: 2-6 (25%)	Neutral
Total Summary	No Bet
OVERALL	Mercury \| No Total Edge

WNBA Matchups: Predictions, Odds & Betting Trends

Final: 72 – 68 Phoenix Mercury @ Seattle Storm window.TMB_PAGE_CONTEXT = { page: 'matchup', sport: "wnba", away_team: "Phoenix Mercury", home_team: "Seattle Storm", game_date: null };

Odds Full WNBA odds board

Injury Report as of Jun 3, 11:47 PM ET PHX3 Out SEA2 Out

Notes

Mercury

Baller System(s)

Storm

Baller System(s)

Model Side

Model Total

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Algorithm Breakdown

Filters

Schedules

Mercury Schedule Follow global filters

Storm Schedule Follow global filters

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On / Off Court

Next Player Up

Records

Notable Trends

View All Records

Storm (Home)

Mercury (Away)

Past Matchups (Last 2 Seasons, Max 10) Follow global filters

Final: 72 – 68
Phoenix Mercury @ Seattle Storm