WNBA Matchups: Predictions, Odds & Betting Trends

Final: 75 – 106
Connecticut Sun @ New York Liberty

Sun: 0-0 (0.0%)

Liberty: 0-0 (0.0%)

Line: -9.5

Total: 159.5

Team totals: Sun 74.5 · Liberty 85.5

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Injury Report CONNo report NYLNo report

Notes — no active systems for this matchup.

Baller Index Our Exclusive WNBA Baller Index is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions essentially look for teams that have over- or under-performed, in terms of points scored, relative to what would be expected based on their underlying metrics and who might be in for regression. While it does not factor in injuries, situational spots, or historic matchups into account, it can be a good place to start when thinking about a particular matchup.

Too early in the season for the Baller Index: the algos need both teams to have played 4 games, and this is game 1 for the Sun and game 1 for the Liberty. Predictions start with their games once each has played 4: the Sun after Fri, May 15, the Liberty after Thu, May 14.

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Team Comparison Stats, Records and the sections tied to them follow these filters; each team's Schedule and Historical Matchups follow them when their switch is on.

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Schedules

Sun Schedule Follow global filters

Date	Team	Points		Opponent	Opp Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
05/13/26 2026	Sun	-	vs.	Aces	-	+14.5	172.0	-	-
05/10/26 2026	Sun	-	vs.	Storm	-	-1.5	164.0	-	-
05/08/26 2026	Sun	-	@	Liberty	-	+9.5	159.5	-	-
Last season · shown for reference, not in the averages
09/10/25	Sun	72	vs.	Dream	88	+12.5	156.5	+16	O 160 +3.5
2025	ORtg: 97.5 DRtg: 119.2 Pace: 73.8			ORtg: 119.2 DRtg: 97.5 Pace: 73.8
09/08/25	Sun	62	@	Dream	87	+14.5	159.5	+25	U 149 -10.5
2025	ORtg: 78.3 DRtg: 109.8 Pace: 79.2			ORtg: 109.8 DRtg: 78.3 Pace: 79.2
09/06/25	Sun	87	vs.	Mercury	84	+10.5	161.5	-3	O 171 +9.5
2025	ORtg: 105.5 DRtg: 101.9 Pace: 82.4			ORtg: 101.9 DRtg: 105.5 Pace: 82.4
09/03/25	Sun	64	@	Sky	88	+2.0	162.5	+24	U 152 -10.5
2025	ORtg: 92.2 DRtg: 126.8 Pace: 69.4			ORtg: 126.8 DRtg: 92.2 Pace: 69.4
09/01/25	Sun	76	vs.	Dream	93	+10.5	159.0	+17	O 169 +10.0
2025	ORtg: 108.1 DRtg: 132.3 Pace: 70.3			ORtg: 132.3 DRtg: 108.1 Pace: 70.3
08/30/25	Sun	70	vs.	Lynx	94	+12.5	163.0	+24	O 164 +1.0
2025	ORtg: 99.6 DRtg: 133.8 Pace: 70.3			ORtg: 133.8 DRtg: 99.6 Pace: 70.3
08/27/25	Sun	101	@	Wings	95	-1.0	166.5	-6	O 196 +29.5
2025	ORtg: 115.1 DRtg: 108.3 Pace: 87.7			ORtg: 108.3 DRtg: 115.1 Pace: 87.7
08/25/25	Sun	79	@	Liberty	81	+14.0	167.5	+2	U 160 -7.5
2025	ORtg: 107.5 DRtg: 110.3 Pace: 73.5			ORtg: 110.3 DRtg: 107.5 Pace: 73.5
08/23/25	Sun	94	@	Sky	84	+2.5	158.5	-10	O 178 +19.5
2025	ORtg: 123.5 DRtg: 110.4 Pace: 76.1			ORtg: 110.4 DRtg: 123.5 Pace: 76.1
08/21/25	Sun	67	vs.	Mystics	56	+3.0	158.0	-11	U 123 -35.0
2025	ORtg: 93.2 DRtg: 77.9 Pace: 71.9			ORtg: 77.9 DRtg: 93.2 Pace: 71.9

Liberty Schedule Follow global filters

Date	Team	Points		Opponent	Opp Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
05/12/26 2026	Liberty	-	@	Fire	-	-12.0	174.5	-	-
05/10/26 2026	Liberty	-	@	Mystics	-	-5.0	165.5	-	-
05/08/26 2026	Liberty	-	vs.	Sun	-	-9.5	159.5	-	-
Last season · shown for reference, not in the averages
09/19/25	Liberty	73	@	Mercury	79	+2.5	155.5	+6	U 152 -3.5
2025	ORtg: 86.9 DRtg: 94.0 Pace: 84.0			ORtg: 94.0 DRtg: 86.9 Pace: 84.0
09/17/25	Liberty	60	vs.	Mercury	86	-4.5	159.5	+26	U 146 -13.5
2025	ORtg: 78.9 DRtg: 113.0 Pace: 76.1			ORtg: 113.0 DRtg: 78.9 Pace: 76.1
09/14/25	Liberty	76	@	Mercury	69 OT	-2.5	164.0	-7	U 145 -19.0
2025	ORtg: 89.4 DRtg: 81.2 Pace: 77.0			ORtg: 81.2 DRtg: 89.4 Pace: 77.0
09/11/25	Liberty	91	@	Sky	86	-13.5	157.0	-5	O 177 +20.0
2025	ORtg: 120.9 DRtg: 114.2 Pace: 75.3			ORtg: 114.2 DRtg: 120.9 Pace: 75.3
09/09/25	Liberty	75	vs.	Mystics	66	-14.5	157.5	-9	U 141 -16.5
2025	ORtg: 101.3 DRtg: 89.1 Pace: 74.1			ORtg: 89.1 DRtg: 101.3 Pace: 74.1
09/05/25	Liberty	84	@	Storm	76	+2.0	162.5	-8	U 160 -2.5
2025	ORtg: 113.8 DRtg: 103.0 Pace: 73.8			ORtg: 103.0 DRtg: 113.8 Pace: 73.8
09/02/25	Liberty	58	@	Valkyries	66	-6.5	156.0	+8	U 124 -32.0
2025	ORtg: 83.7 DRtg: 95.2 Pace: 69.3			ORtg: 95.2 DRtg: 83.7 Pace: 69.3
08/30/25	Liberty	63	@	Mercury	80	-1.0	167.0	+17	U 143 -24.0
2025	ORtg: 90.7 DRtg: 115.2 Pace: 69.4			ORtg: 115.2 DRtg: 90.7 Pace: 69.4
08/28/25	Liberty	89	vs.	Mystics	63	-8.0	159.5	-26	U 152 -7.5
2025	ORtg: 131.6 DRtg: 93.1 Pace: 67.7			ORtg: 93.1 DRtg: 131.6 Pace: 67.7
08/25/25	Liberty	81	vs.	Sun	79	-14.0	167.5	-2	U 160 -7.5
2025	ORtg: 110.3 DRtg: 107.5 Pace: 73.5			ORtg: 107.5 DRtg: 110.3 Pace: 73.5

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Records

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Notable Trends

First week of the season: these records include last season.

No notable trends identified for this matchup.

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Liberty (Home)

The Liberty are 39.1% (18-28-2) against the spread

The Liberty are 52.2% (12-11-1) against the spread at home

The Liberty are 43.2% (16-21-2) against the spread as a fav

The Liberty are 52.2% (12-11-1) against the spread as a home fav

The Liberty are 58.3% (28-20) to the under

The Liberty are 66.7% (16-8) to the under at home

The Liberty are 61.5% (24-15) to the under as a fav

The Liberty are 66.7% (16-8) to the under as a home fav

The Liberty are 100% (1-0) (L30 days) against the spread

The Liberty are 100% (1-0) (L30 days) against the spread at home

The Liberty are 100% (1-0) (L30 days) against the spread as a fav

The Liberty are 100% (1-0) (L30 days) against the spread as a home fav

The Liberty are 100% (1-0) (L30 days) to the over

The Liberty are 100% (1-0) (L30 days) to the over at home

The Liberty are 100% (1-0) (L30 days) to the over as a fav

The Liberty are 100% (1-0) (L30 days) to the over as a home fav

Sun (Away)

The Sun are 51.1% (23-22) against the spread

The Sun are 47.8% (11-12) against the spread away

The Sun are 50% (21-21) against the spread as a dog

The Sun are 45.5% (10-12) against the spread as an away dog

The Sun are 52.3% (23-21-1) to the over

The Sun are 56.5% (13-10) to the under away

The Sun are 53.7% (22-19-1) to the over as a dog

The Sun are 59.1% (13-9) to the under as an away dog

The Sun are 0% (0-1) (L30 days) against the spread

The Sun are 0% (0-1) (L30 days) against the spread away

The Sun are 0% (0-1) (L30 days) against the spread as a dog

The Sun are 0% (0-1) (L30 days) against the spread as an away dog

The Sun are 100% (1-0) (L30 days) to the over

The Sun are 100% (1-0) (L30 days) to the over away

The Sun are 100% (1-0) (L30 days) to the over as a dog

The Sun are 100% (1-0) (L30 days) to the over as an away dog

Past Matchups (Last 2 Seasons, Max 10) Follow global filters

Date	Team	Pts		Opponent	Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
08/25/25	Liberty	81	vs.	Sun	79	-14.0	167.5	-2	U 160 -7.5
2025	ORtg: 110.3 DRtg: 107.5 Pace: 73.5			ORtg: 107.5 DRtg: 110.3 Pace: 73.5
08/03/25	Liberty	87	@	Sun	78	-11.5	171.0	-9	U 165 -6.0
2025	ORtg: 105.2 DRtg: 94.3 Pace: 82.7			ORtg: 94.3 DRtg: 105.2 Pace: 82.7
08/01/25	Liberty	62	@	Sun	78	-12.0	172.0	+16	U 140 -32.0
2025	ORtg: 78.5 DRtg: 98.7 Pace: 79.0			ORtg: 98.7 DRtg: 78.5 Pace: 79.0
06/01/25	Liberty	100	vs.	Sun	52	-18.5	164.5	-48	U 152 -12.5
2025	ORtg: 134.4 DRtg: 69.9 Pace: 74.4			ORtg: 69.9 DRtg: 134.4 Pace: 74.4

Liberty as Home (2 games)		90.5	-	-	65.5	-16.3	166.0	-25.0 +8.8	U 156.0 -10.0
	ORtg: 122.3 DRtg: 88.7 Pace: 73.9			ORtg: 88.7 DRtg: 122.3 Pace: 73.9

All Games Avg (4 games)		82.5	-	-	71.8	-14.0	168.8	-10.8 -3.3	U 154.3 -14.5
	ORtg: 107.1 DRtg: 92.6 Pace: 77.4			ORtg: 92.6 DRtg: 107.1 Pace: 77.4