NFL Matchups: Predictions, Odds & Betting Trends

Sun, 1/18, Final: 16 – 28
Houston Texans @ New England Patriots

Texans: 13-5 (72.2%) - AFC South | Market Rating: +1.22

Patriots: 15-3 (83.3%) - AFC East | Market Rating: +2.39 | Home Field: +1.9 pts

Line: -3.5

Total: 41.0

Open: -3

Open: 40.5

Team totals: Texans 19.5 · Patriots 22.5

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Injury Report HOUNo report NENo report

Notes

Texans

Situational Factor(s)

Rest Disadvantage

Short rest: 4 or 5 days

Patriots

Situational Factor(s)

Rest Advantage

Baller System(s)

Back favorite off a game as a fav w/ low turnovers

Baller Index Our Exclusive NFL Baller Index is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions essentially look for teams that have over- or under-performed, in terms of points scored, relative to what would be expected based on their underlying metrics and who might be in for regression. While it does not factor in injuries, situational spots, or historic matchups into account, it can be a good place to start when thinking about a particular matchup.

Model Side

No clear side

Model Total

No clear side

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Filters

Team Comparison Stats, Records and the sections tied to them follow these filters; each team's Schedule and Historical Matchups follow them when their switch is on.

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Schedules

Texans Schedule Follow global filters

Date	Team	Points		Opponent	Opp Pts	Yds	Rush	Rec	Int	Fum	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
09/20/26 2026	Texans	-	vs.	Bengals	-	-	-	-	-	-	-2.5	45.5	-	-
09/13/26 2026	Texans	-	vs.	Bills	-	-	-	-	-	-	+1.0	44.5	-	-
01/18/26 2025	Texans	-	@	Patriots	-	-	-	-	-	-	+3.5	41.0	-	-
01/12/26 2025	Texans	30	@	Steelers	6	414	164	250	1	5	-3.0	38.5	-24	U 36 -2.5
01/04/26 2025	Texans	38	vs.	Colts	30	339	134	205	1	0	-9.5	37.5	-8	O 68 +30.5
12/27/25 2025	Texans	20	@	Chargers	16	362	118	244	1	1	+1.5	41.0	-4	U 36 -5.0
12/21/25 2025	Texans	23	vs.	Raiders	21	270	83	187	1	1	-14.5	38.0	-2	O 44 +6.0
12/14/25 2025	Texans	40	vs.	Cardinals	20	403	143	260	1	1	-10.5	42.5	-20	O 60 +17.5
12/07/25 2025	Texans	20	@	Chiefs	10	285	82	203	3	0	+4.5	41.5	-10	U 30 -11.5
11/30/25 2025	Texans	20	@	Colts	16	384	108	276	0	1	+3.0	44.5	-4	U 36 -8.5
11/20/25 2025	Texans	23	vs.	Bills	19	261	108	153	2	0	+4.5	44.0	-4	U 42 -2.0
11/16/25 2025	Texans	16	@	Titans	13	349	75	274	0	0	-5.5	37.5	-3	U 29 -8.5
11/09/25 2025	Texans	36	vs.	Jaguars	29	422	130	292	1	2	+1.5	37.5	-7	O 65 +27.5

Away Games Avg (5 games)		21.2	-	-	12.2	359	109	249	1.0	1.4	+0.1	40.6	-9.0 +9.1	U 33.4 -7.2

All Games Avg (10 games)		26.6	-	-	18.0	349	115	234	1.1	1.1	-2.8	40.3	-8.6 +5.8	O 44.6 +4.4

Patriots Schedule Follow global filters

Date	Team	Points		Opponent	Opp Pts	Yds	Rush	Rec	Int	Fum	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
02/08/26 2025	Patriots	-	vs.	Seahawks	-	-	-	-	-	-	+4.5	45.5	-	-
01/25/26 2025	Patriots	-	@	Broncos	-	-	-	-	-	-	-3.5	43.0	-	-
01/18/26 2025	Patriots	-	vs.	Texans	-	-	-	-	-	-	-3.5	41.0	-	-
01/11/26 2025	Patriots	16	vs.	Chargers	3	414	146	268	0	2	-3.5	45.5	-13	U 19 -26.5
01/04/26 2025	Patriots	38	vs.	Dolphins	10	457	243	214	1	0	-14.5	44.5	-28	O 48 +3.5
12/28/25 2025	Patriots	42	@	Jets	10	441	155	286	1	0	-13.0	42.5	-32	O 52 +9.5
12/21/25 2025	Patriots	28	@	Ravens	24	459	79	380	0	3	+3.0	48.0	-4	O 52 +4.0
12/14/25 2025	Patriots	31	vs.	Bills	35	401	246	155	0	2	+2.5	49.5	+4	O 66 +16.5
12/01/25 2025	Patriots	33	vs.	Giants	15	401	119	282	0	0	-7.0	46.5	-18	O 48 +1.5
11/23/25 2025	Patriots	26	@	Bengals	20	401	107	294	1	0	-7.0	51.5	-6	U 46 -5.5
11/13/25 2025	Patriots	27	vs.	Jets	14	346	65	281	0	0	-12.5	43.5	-13	U 41 -2.5
11/09/25 2025	Patriots	28	@	Buccaneers	23	436	166	270	0	1	+2.5	48.5	-5	O 51 +2.5
11/02/25 2025	Patriots	24	vs.	Falcons	23	369	110	259	0	2	-5.5	45.5	-1	O 47 +1.5

Home Games Avg (6 games)		28.2	-	-	16.7	398	155	243	0.2	1.0	-6.8	45.8	-11.5 +4.8	U 44.8 -1.0

All Games Avg (10 games)		29.3	-	-	17.7	413	144	269	0.3	1.0	-5.5	46.6	-11.6 +6.1	O 47.0 +0.5

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Records

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Notable Trends

The Patriots are 72.2% (13-5) against the spread

The Patriots are 75% (9-3) against the spread as a fav

The Patriots are 75% (6-2) against the spread as a home fav

The Patriots are 80% (4-1) (L30 days) against the spread

The Patriots are 80% (4-1) (L30 days) to the over

The Texans are 77.8% (7-2) to the under away

The Texans are 75% (6-2) to the under as a dog

The Texans are 83.3% (5-1) to the under as an away dog

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Patriots (Home)

The Patriots are 72.2% (13-5) against the spread

The Patriots are 60% (6-4) against the spread at home

The Patriots are 75% (9-3) against the spread as a fav

The Patriots are 75% (6-2) against the spread as a home fav

The Patriots are 61.1% (11-7) to the over

The Patriots are 60% (6-4) to the over at home

The Patriots are 58.3% (7-5) to the over as a fav

The Patriots are 62.5% (5-3) to the over as a home fav

The Patriots are 80% (4-1) (L30 days) against the spread

The Patriots are 66.7% (2-1) (L30 days) against the spread at home

The Patriots are 100% (3-0) (L30 days) against the spread as a fav

The Patriots are 100% (2-0) (L30 days) against the spread as a home fav

The Patriots are 80% (4-1) (L30 days) to the over

The Patriots are 66.7% (2-1) (L30 days) to the over at home

The Patriots are 66.7% (2-1) (L30 days) to the over as a fav

The Patriots are 50% (1-1) (L30 days) to the over as a home fav

Texans (Away)

The Texans are 55.6% (10-8) against the spread

The Texans are 55.6% (5-4) against the spread away

The Texans are 62.5% (5-3) against the spread as a dog

The Texans are 50% (3-3) against the spread as an away dog

The Texans are 66.7% (12-6) to the under

The Texans are 77.8% (7-2) to the under away

The Texans are 75% (6-2) to the under as a dog

The Texans are 83.3% (5-1) to the under as an away dog

The Texans are 60% (3-2) (L30 days) against the spread

The Texans are 100% (2-0) (L30 days) against the spread away

The Texans are 100% (1-0) (L30 days) against the spread as a dog

The Texans are 100% (1-0) (L30 days) against the spread as an away dog

The Texans are 60% (3-2) (L30 days) to the over

The Texans are 100% (2-0) (L30 days) to the under away

The Texans are 100% (1-0) (L30 days) to the under as a dog

The Texans are 100% (1-0) (L30 days) to the under as an away dog

Historical Matchups (Last 3 Seasons, Max 10) Follow global filters

Date	Team	Pts		Opponent	Pts	Yds	Rush	Rec	Int	Fum	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
10/13/24 2024	Patriots	21	vs.	Texans	41	325	82	243	1	3	+6.5	39.5	+20	O 62 +22.5

Patriots as Home (1 games)		21.0	-	-	41.0	325	82	243	1.0	3.0	+6.5	39.5	+20.0 -13.5	O 62.0 +22.5

All Games Avg (1 games)		21.0	-	-	41.0	325	82	243	1.0	3.0	+6.5	39.5	+20.0 -13.5	O 62.0 +22.5

Algorithm	Model Side
DVOA ZScores Normalized DVOA comparision.	Neutral
Basic Stats 8-feature regression.	Neutral
Luck Regression Looking at things like int, fumbles, etc.	Neutral
ATS Analysis 2-feature logistic regression.	Neutral
Cover Summary	No Bet
OVERALL	No Spread Edge \| No Total Edge

NFL Matchups: Predictions, Odds & Betting Trends

Sun, 1/18, Final: 16 – 28 Houston Texans @ New England Patriots window.TMB_PAGE_CONTEXT = { page: 'matchup', sport: "nfl", away_team: "Houston Texans", home_team: "New England Patriots", game_date: "2026-01-18" };

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Injury Report HOUNo report NENo report

Notes

Texans

Situational Factor(s)

Patriots

Situational Factor(s)

Baller System(s)

Model Side

Model Total

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Filters

Schedules

Texans Schedule Follow global filters

Patriots Schedule Follow global filters

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Records

Notable Trends

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Patriots (Home)

Texans (Away)

Historical Matchups (Last 3 Seasons, Max 10) Follow global filters

Sun, 1/18, Final: 16 – 28
Houston Texans @ New England Patriots