NFL Matchups: Predictions, Odds & Betting Trends

Sun, 1/4, Final: 10 – 38
Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots

Dolphins: 7-9 (43.8%) - AFC East | Market Rating: -1.83

Patriots: 13-3 (81.3%) - AFC East | Market Rating: +1.85 | Home Field: +0.9 pts

Line: -14.5

Total: 44.5

Open: -10

Open: 45.5

Team totals: Dolphins 15.5 · Patriots 29.5

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Injury Report MIANo report NENo report

Notes

Dolphins

Situational Factor(s)

Coming off a win as a dog (letdown)

In-season revenge

Patriots

Situational Factor(s)

First game home off 2+ game road trip

Baller Index Our Exclusive NFL Baller Index is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions essentially look for teams that have over- or under-performed, in terms of points scored, relative to what would be expected based on their underlying metrics and who might be in for regression. While it does not factor in injuries, situational spots, or historic matchups into account, it can be a good place to start when thinking about a particular matchup.

Model Side

Dolphins

54.06% probability

Model Total

No clear side

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Filters

Team Comparison Stats, Records and the sections tied to them follow these filters; each team's Schedule and Historical Matchups follow them when their switch is on.

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Schedules

Dolphins Schedule Follow global filters

Date	Team	Points		Opponent	Opp Pts	Yds	Rush	Rec	Int	Fum	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
09/20/26 2026	Dolphins	-	@	49ers	-	-	-	-	-	-	+13.0	45.0	-	-
09/13/26 2026	Dolphins	-	@	Raiders	-	-	-	-	-	-	+3.0	40.5	-	-
01/04/26 2025	Dolphins	-	@	Patriots	-	-	-	-	-	-	+14.5	44.5	-	-
12/28/25 2025	Dolphins	20	vs.	Buccaneers	17	317	145	172	2	1	+5.5	44.0	-3	U 37 -7.0
12/21/25 2025	Dolphins	21	vs.	Bengals	45	389	129	260	0	2	+4.0	47.5	+24	O 66 +18.5
12/15/25 2025	Dolphins	15	@	Steelers	28	316	63	253	0	0	+3.5	42.0	+13	O 43 +1.0
12/07/25 2025	Dolphins	34	@	Jets	10	366	239	127	3	1	-2.5	41.5	-24	O 44 +2.5
11/30/25 2025	Dolphins	21	vs.	Saints	17	321	164	157	1	1	-5.5	41.5	-4	U 38 -3.5
11/16/25 2025	Dolphins	16	vs.	Commanders	13 OT	340	169	171	1	0	-2.5	47.5	-3	U 29 -18.5
11/09/25 2025	Dolphins	30	vs.	Bills	13	370	197	173	1	0	+8.5	50.0	-17	U 43 -7.0
10/30/25 2025	Dolphins	6	vs.	Ravens	28	348	87	261	0	2	+7.5	51.5	+22	U 34 -17.5
10/26/25 2025	Dolphins	34	@	Falcons	10	346	141	205	0	0	+7.0	44.5	-24	U 44 -0.5
10/19/25 2025	Dolphins	6	@	Browns	31	252	99	153	0	6	+2.5	34.5	+25	O 37 +2.5

Away Games Avg (4 games)		22.3	-	-	19.8	320	136	185	0.8	1.8	+2.6	40.6	-2.5 +5.1	O 42.0 +1.4

All Games Avg (10 games)		20.3	-	-	21.2	337	143	193	0.8	1.3	+2.8	44.5	+0.9 +1.9	U 41.5 -3.0

Patriots Schedule Follow global filters

Date	Team	Points		Opponent	Opp Pts	Yds	Rush	Rec	Int	Fum	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
01/18/26 2025	Patriots	-	vs.	Texans	-	-	-	-	-	-	-3.5	41.0	-	-
01/11/26 2025	Patriots	-	vs.	Chargers	-	-	-	-	-	-	-3.5	45.5	-	-
01/04/26 2025	Patriots	-	vs.	Dolphins	-	-	-	-	-	-	-14.5	44.5	-	-
12/28/25 2025	Patriots	42	@	Jets	10	441	155	286	1	0	-13.0	42.5	-32	O 52 +9.5
12/21/25 2025	Patriots	28	@	Ravens	24	459	79	380	0	3	+3.0	48.0	-4	O 52 +4.0
12/14/25 2025	Patriots	31	vs.	Bills	35	401	246	155	0	2	+2.5	49.5	+4	O 66 +16.5
12/01/25 2025	Patriots	33	vs.	Giants	15	401	119	282	0	0	-7.0	46.5	-18	O 48 +1.5
11/23/25 2025	Patriots	26	@	Bengals	20	401	107	294	1	0	-7.0	51.5	-6	U 46 -5.5
11/13/25 2025	Patriots	27	vs.	Jets	14	346	65	281	0	0	-12.5	43.5	-13	U 41 -2.5
11/09/25 2025	Patriots	28	@	Buccaneers	23	436	166	270	0	1	+2.5	48.5	-5	O 51 +2.5
11/02/25 2025	Patriots	24	vs.	Falcons	23	369	110	259	0	2	-5.5	45.5	-1	O 47 +1.5
10/26/25 2025	Patriots	32	vs.	Browns	13	459	177	282	2	2	-7.0	40.5	-19	O 45 +4.5
10/19/25 2025	Patriots	31	@	Titans	13	409	175	234	1	0	-6.5	41.5	-18	O 44 +2.5

Home Games Avg (5 games)		29.4	-	-	20.0	395	143	252	0.4	1.2	-5.9	45.1	-9.4 +3.5	O 49.4 +4.3

All Games Avg (10 games)		30.2	-	-	19.0	412	140	272	0.5	1.0	-5.1	45.8	-11.2 +6.2	O 49.2 +3.5

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Records

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Notable Trends

The Patriots are 70% (7-3) against the spread as a fav

The Patriots are 75% (3-1) (L30 days) against the spread

The Patriots are 100% (4-0) (L30 days) to the over

The Dolphins are 71.4% (5-2) to the over away

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Patriots (Home)

The Patriots are 68.8% (11-5) against the spread

The Patriots are 50% (4-4) against the spread at home

The Patriots are 70% (7-3) against the spread as a fav

The Patriots are 66.7% (4-2) against the spread as a home fav

The Patriots are 62.5% (10-6) to the over

The Patriots are 62.5% (5-3) to the over at home

The Patriots are 60% (6-4) to the over as a fav

The Patriots are 66.7% (4-2) to the over as a home fav

The Patriots are 75% (3-1) (L30 days) against the spread

The Patriots are 50% (1-1) (L30 days) against the spread at home

The Patriots are 100% (2-0) (L30 days) against the spread as a fav

The Patriots are 100% (1-0) (L30 days) against the spread as a home fav

The Patriots are 100% (4-0) (L30 days) to the over

The Patriots are 100% (2-0) (L30 days) to the over at home

The Patriots are 100% (2-0) (L30 days) to the over as a fav

The Patriots are 100% (1-0) (L30 days) to the over as a home fav

Dolphins (Away)

The Dolphins are 50% (8-8) against the spread

The Dolphins are 42.9% (3-4) against the spread away

The Dolphins are 50% (5-5) against the spread as a dog

The Dolphins are 40% (2-3) against the spread as an away dog

The Dolphins are 56.3% (9-7) to the over

The Dolphins are 71.4% (5-2) to the over away

The Dolphins are 50% (5-5) to the over as a dog

The Dolphins are 60% (3-2) to the over as an away dog

The Dolphins are 40% (2-3) (L30 days) against the spread

The Dolphins are 50% (1-1) (L30 days) against the spread away

The Dolphins are 33.3% (1-2) (L30 days) against the spread as a dog

The Dolphins are 0% (0-1) (L30 days) against the spread as an away dog

The Dolphins are 60% (3-2) (L30 days) to the over

The Dolphins are 100% (2-0) (L30 days) to the over away

The Dolphins are 66.7% (2-1) (L30 days) to the over as a dog

The Dolphins are 100% (1-0) (L30 days) to the over as an away dog

Historical Matchups (Last 3 Seasons, Max 10) Follow global filters

Date	Team	Pts		Opponent	Pts	Yds	Rush	Rec	Int	Fum	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
09/14/25 2025	Patriots	33	@	Dolphins	27	376	61	315	0	0	+2.5	43.5	-6	O 60 +16.5
11/24/24 2024	Patriots	15	@	Dolphins	34	382	65	317	1	1	+7.5	45.5	+19	O 49 +3.5
10/06/24 2024	Patriots	10	vs.	Dolphins	15	311	151	160	1	0	+1.5	36.5	+5	U 25 -11.5
10/29/23 2023	Patriots	17	@	Dolphins	31	402	78	324	1	1	+7.5	47.0	+14	O 48 +1.0
09/17/23 2023	Patriots	17	vs.	Dolphins	24	316	88	228	1	1	+2.0	46.5	+7	U 41 -5.5
01/01/23 2022	Patriots	23	vs.	Dolphins	21	280	76	204	2	0	-3.5	42.0	-2	O 44 +2.0
09/11/22 2022	Patriots	7	@	Dolphins	20	335	65	270	1	2	+3.0	46.5	+13	U 27 -19.5

Patriots as Home (3 games)		16.7	-	-	20.0	302	105	197	1.3	0.3	0.0	41.7	+3.3 -3.3	U 36.7 -5.0

All Games Avg (7 games)		17.4	-	-	24.6	343	83	260	1.0	0.7	+2.9	43.9	+7.1 -4.2	U 42.0 -1.9

Algorithm	Model Side
DVOA ZScores Normalized DVOA comparision.	Neutral
Basic Stats 8-feature regression.	Dolphins
Luck Regression Looking at things like int, fumbles, etc.	Neutral
ATS Analysis 2-feature logistic regression.	Neutral
Cover Summary	Dolphins
OVERALL	Dolphins \| No Total Edge

NFL Matchups: Predictions, Odds & Betting Trends

Sun, 1/4, Final: 10 – 38 Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots window.TMB_PAGE_CONTEXT = { page: 'matchup', sport: "nfl", away_team: "Miami Dolphins", home_team: "New England Patriots", game_date: "2026-01-04" };

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Injury Report MIANo report NENo report

Notes

Dolphins

Situational Factor(s)

Patriots

Situational Factor(s)

Model Side

Model Total

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Algorithm Breakdown

Filters

Schedules

Dolphins Schedule Follow global filters

Patriots Schedule Follow global filters

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Records

Notable Trends

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Patriots (Home)

Dolphins (Away)

Historical Matchups (Last 3 Seasons, Max 10) Follow global filters

Sun, 1/4, Final: 10 – 38
Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots