NFL Matchups: Predictions, Odds & Betting Trends

Sun, 12/28, Final: 42 – 10
New England Patriots @ New York Jets

Patriots: 12-3 (80.0%) - AFC East | Market Rating: +1.07

Jets: 3-12 (20.0%) - AFC East | Market Rating: -4.30 | Home Field: +1.5 pts

Line: +13.0

Total: 42.5

Open: +9.5

Open: 43.5

Team totals: Patriots 27.5 · Jets 14.5

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Injury Report NENo report NYJNo report

Notes

Patriots

Situational Factor(s)

Coming off a win as a dog (letdown)

Lookahead: next game versus division rival

Jets

Situational Factor(s)

First game home off 2+ game road trip

Lookahead: next game versus division rival

In-season revenge

Baller Index Our Exclusive NFL Baller Index is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions essentially look for teams that have over- or under-performed, in terms of points scored, relative to what would be expected based on their underlying metrics and who might be in for regression. While it does not factor in injuries, situational spots, or historic matchups into account, it can be a good place to start when thinking about a particular matchup.

Model Side

Patriots

55.63% probability

Model Total

No clear side

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Filters

Team Comparison Stats, Records and the sections tied to them follow these filters; each team's Schedule and Historical Matchups follow them when their switch is on.

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Schedules

Patriots Schedule Follow global filters

Date	Team	Points		Opponent	Opp Pts	Yds	Rush	Rec	Int	Fum	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
01/11/26 2025	Patriots	-	vs.	Chargers	-	-	-	-	-	-	-3.5	45.5	-	-
01/04/26 2025	Patriots	-	vs.	Dolphins	-	-	-	-	-	-	-14.5	44.5	-	-
12/28/25 2025	Patriots	-	@	Jets	-	-	-	-	-	-	-13.0	42.5	-	-
12/21/25 2025	Patriots	28	@	Ravens	24	459	79	380	0	3	+3.0	48.0	-4	O 52 +4.0
12/14/25 2025	Patriots	31	vs.	Bills	35	401	246	155	0	2	+2.5	49.5	+4	O 66 +16.5
12/01/25 2025	Patriots	33	vs.	Giants	15	401	119	282	0	0	-7.0	46.5	-18	O 48 +1.5
11/23/25 2025	Patriots	26	@	Bengals	20	401	107	294	1	0	-7.0	51.5	-6	U 46 -5.5
11/13/25 2025	Patriots	27	vs.	Jets	14	346	65	281	0	0	-12.5	43.5	-13	U 41 -2.5
11/09/25 2025	Patriots	28	@	Buccaneers	23	436	166	270	0	1	+2.5	48.5	-5	O 51 +2.5
11/02/25 2025	Patriots	24	vs.	Falcons	23	369	110	259	0	2	-5.5	45.5	-1	O 47 +1.5
10/26/25 2025	Patriots	32	vs.	Browns	13	459	177	282	2	2	-7.0	40.5	-19	O 45 +4.5
10/19/25 2025	Patriots	31	@	Titans	13	409	175	234	1	0	-6.5	41.5	-18	O 44 +2.5
10/12/25 2025	Patriots	25	@	Saints	19	334	73	261	0	2	-3.5	45.5	-6	U 44 -1.5

Away Games Avg (5 games)		27.6	-	-	19.8	408	120	288	0.4	1.2	-2.3	47.0	-7.8 +5.5	O 47.4 +0.4

All Games Avg (10 games)		28.5	-	-	19.9	402	132	270	0.4	1.2	-4.1	46.1	-8.6 +4.5	O 48.4 +2.4

Jets Schedule Follow global filters

Date	Team	Points		Opponent	Opp Pts	Yds	Rush	Rec	Int	Fum	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
09/13/26 2026	Jets	-	@	Titans	-	-	-	-	-	-	+1.0	39.5	-	-
01/04/26 2025	Jets	-	@	Bills	-	-	-	-	-	-	+13.5	39.5	-	-
12/28/25 2025	Jets	-	vs.	Patriots	-	-	-	-	-	-	+13.0	42.5	-	-
12/21/25 2025	Jets	6	@	Saints	29	252	64	188	0	1	+4.5	40.5	+23	U 35 -5.5
12/14/25 2025	Jets	20	@	Jaguars	48	306	130	176	0	0	+13.5	40.5	+28	O 68 +27.5
12/07/25 2025	Jets	10	vs.	Dolphins	34	234	65	169	0	3	+2.5	41.5	+24	O 44 +2.5
11/30/25 2025	Jets	27	vs.	Falcons	24	282	110	172	0	0	+3.0	38.5	-3	O 51 +12.5
11/23/25 2025	Jets	10	@	Ravens	23	300	78	222	0	1	+13.5	44.5	+13	U 33 -11.5
11/13/25 2025	Jets	14	@	Patriots	27	256	140	116	0	1	+12.5	43.5	+13	U 41 -2.5
11/09/25 2025	Jets	27	vs.	Browns	20	181	127	54	0	0	+2.0	37.5	-7	O 47 +9.5
10/26/25 2025	Jets	39	@	Bengals	38	502	254	248	0	0	+5.5	43.5	-1	O 77 +33.5
10/19/25 2025	Jets	6	vs.	Panthers	13	253	81	172	0	0	-1.5	39.5	+7	U 19 -20.5
10/12/25 2025	Jets	11	vs.	Broncos	13	137	92	45	0	1	+7.0	43.5	+2	U 24 -19.5

Home Games Avg (4 games)		17.5	-	-	22.8	238	96	142	0.0	0.8	+1.5	39.3	+5.3 -3.8	O 40.3 +1.0

All Games Avg (10 games)		17.0	-	-	26.9	270	114	156	0.0	0.7	+6.3	41.3	+9.9 -3.7	O 43.9 +2.6

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Records

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Notable Trends

The Jets are 71.4% (5-2) to the over at home

The Jets are 80% (4-1) to the over as a home dog

The Patriots are 85.7% (6-1) against the spread away

The Patriots are 75% (3-1) (L30 days) to the over

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Jets (Home)

The Jets are 46.7% (7-8) against the spread

The Jets are 42.9% (3-4) against the spread at home

The Jets are 53.8% (7-6) against the spread as a dog

The Jets are 60% (3-2) against the spread as a home dog

The Jets are 60% (9-6) to the over

The Jets are 71.4% (5-2) to the over at home

The Jets are 61.5% (8-5) to the over as a dog

The Jets are 80% (4-1) to the over as a home dog

The Jets are 40% (2-3) (L30 days) against the spread

The Jets are 50% (1-1) (L30 days) against the spread at home

The Jets are 40% (2-3) (L30 days) against the spread as a dog

The Jets are 50% (1-1) (L30 days) against the spread as a home dog

The Jets are 60% (3-2) (L30 days) to the over

The Jets are 100% (2-0) (L30 days) to the over at home

The Jets are 60% (3-2) (L30 days) to the over as a dog

The Jets are 100% (2-0) (L30 days) to the over as a home dog

Patriots (Away)

The Patriots are 66.7% (10-5) against the spread

The Patriots are 85.7% (6-1) against the spread away

The Patriots are 66.7% (6-3) against the spread as a fav

The Patriots are 66.7% (2-1) against the spread as an away fav

The Patriots are 60% (9-6) to the over

The Patriots are 57.1% (4-3) to the over away

The Patriots are 55.6% (5-4) to the over as a fav

The Patriots are 66.7% (2-1) to the under as an away fav

The Patriots are 50% (2-2) (L30 days) against the spread

The Patriots are 50% (1-1) (L30 days) against the spread away

The Patriots are 50% (1-1) (L30 days) against the spread as a fav

The Patriots are 0% (0-1) (L30 days) against the spread as an away fav

The Patriots are 75% (3-1) (L30 days) to the over

The Patriots are 50% (1-1) (L30 days) to the over away

The Patriots are 50% (1-1) (L30 days) to the over as a fav

The Patriots are 100% (1-0) (L30 days) to the under as an away fav

Historical Matchups (Last 3 Seasons, Max 10) Follow global filters

Date	Team	Pts		Opponent	Pts	Yds	Rush	Rec	Int	Fum	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
11/13/25 2025	Jets	14	@	Patriots	27	346	65	281	0	0	+12.5	43.5	+13	U 41 -2.5
10/27/24 2024	Jets	22	@	Patriots	25	267	112	155	0	2	-7.0	41.5	+3	O 47 +5.5
09/19/24 2024	Jets	24	vs.	Patriots	3	414	133	281	0	1	-6.5	39.5	-21	U 27 -12.5
01/07/24 2023	Jets	17	@	Patriots	3	176	88	88	0	1	+2.0	28.5	-14	U 20 -8.5
09/24/23 2023	Jets	10	vs.	Patriots	15	195	38	157	0	1	+2.5	35.5	+5	U 25 -10.5
11/20/22 2022	Jets	3	@	Patriots	10	345	99	246	0	1	+3.5	38.0	+7	U 13 -25.0
10/30/22 2022	Jets	17	vs.	Patriots	22	406	51	355	1	0	+3.0	40.0	+5	U 39 -1.0

Jets as Home (3 games)		17.0	-	-	13.3	338	74	264	0.3	0.7	-0.3	38.3	-3.7 +3.3	U 30.3 -8.0

All Games Avg (7 games)		15.3	-	-	15.0	307	84	223	0.1	0.9	+1.4	38.1	-0.3 +1.7	U 30.3 -7.8

Algorithm	Model Side
DVOA ZScores Normalized DVOA comparision.	Neutral
Basic Stats 8-feature regression.	Neutral
Luck Regression Looking at things like int, fumbles, etc.	Patriots (2x)
ATS Analysis 2-feature logistic regression.	Neutral
Cover Summary	Patriots
OVERALL	Patriots \| No Total Edge

NFL Matchups: Predictions, Odds & Betting Trends

Sun, 12/28, Final: 42 – 10 New England Patriots @ New York Jets window.TMB_PAGE_CONTEXT = { page: 'matchup', sport: "nfl", away_team: "New England Patriots", home_team: "New York Jets", game_date: "2025-12-28" };

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Injury Report NENo report NYJNo report

Notes

Patriots

Situational Factor(s)

Jets

Situational Factor(s)

Model Side

Model Total

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Algorithm Breakdown

Filters

Schedules

Patriots Schedule Follow global filters

Jets Schedule Follow global filters

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Records

Notable Trends

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Jets (Home)

Patriots (Away)

Historical Matchups (Last 3 Seasons, Max 10) Follow global filters

Sun, 12/28, Final: 42 – 10
New England Patriots @ New York Jets