NFL Matchups: Predictions, Odds & Betting Trends

Mon, 12/22, Final: 48 – 27
San Francisco 49ers @ Indianapolis Colts

49ers: 10-4 (71.4%) - NFC West | Market Rating: +1.04

Colts: 8-6 (57.1%) - AFC South | Market Rating: +0.98 | Home Field: +2.4 pts

Line: +6.5

Total: 46.5

Open: +6.5

Open: 46

Team totals: 49ers 25.5 · Colts 20.5

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Injury Report SFNo report INDNo report

Notes

49ers

Situational Factor(s)

West Coast team traveling East

Extended rest: Non-bye week

Colts

Situational Factor(s)

First game home off 2+ game road trip

Lookahead: next game versus division rival

Extended rest: Non-bye week

Baller Index Our Exclusive NFL Baller Index is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions essentially look for teams that have over- or under-performed, in terms of points scored, relative to what would be expected based on their underlying metrics and who might be in for regression. While it does not factor in injuries, situational spots, or historic matchups into account, it can be a good place to start when thinking about a particular matchup.

Model Side

49ers

57.19% probability

Model Total

No clear side

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Filters

Team Comparison Stats, Records and the sections tied to them follow these filters; each team's Schedule and Historical Matchups follow them when their switch is on.

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Schedules

49ers Schedule Follow global filters

Date	Team	Points		Opponent	Opp Pts	Yds	Rush	Rec	Int	Fum	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
01/03/26 2025	49ers	-	vs.	Seahawks	-	-	-	-	-	-	+2.5	48.5	-	-
12/28/25 2025	49ers	-	vs.	Bears	-	-	-	-	-	-	-4.5	51.5	-	-
12/22/25 2025	49ers	-	@	Colts	-	-	-	-	-	-	-6.5	46.5	-	-
12/14/25 2025	49ers	37	vs.	Titans	24	433	138	295	0	1	-12.5	44.5	-13	O 61 +16.5
11/30/25 2025	49ers	26	@	Browns	8	259	91	168	0	0	-5.5	35.5	-18	U 34 -1.5
11/24/25 2025	49ers	20	vs.	Panthers	9	340	147	193	2	1	-7.0	49.5	-11	U 29 -20.5
11/16/25 2025	49ers	41	@	Cardinals	22	295	95	200	2	0	-3.5	48.5	-19	O 63 +14.5
11/09/25 2025	49ers	26	vs.	Rams	42	393	74	319	0	1	+5.5	49.5	+16	O 68 +18.5
11/02/25 2025	49ers	34	@	Giants	24	394	159	235	0	1	-2.5	47.5	-10	O 58 +10.5
10/26/25 2025	49ers	15	@	Texans	26	241	48	193	1	1	+3.0	41.5	+11	U 41 -0.5
10/19/25 2025	49ers	20	vs.	Falcons	10	326	174	152	0	0	-0.5	46.5	-10	U 30 -16.5
10/12/25 2025	49ers	19	@	Buccaneers	30	414	67	347	0	1	+3.5	47.0	+11	O 49 +2.0
10/02/25 2025	49ers	26	@	Rams	23 OT	416	74	342	0	0	+7.5	43.5	-3	O 49 +5.5

Away Games Avg (6 games)		26.8	-	-	22.2	337	89	248	0.5	0.5	+0.4	43.9	-4.7 +5.1	O 49.0 +5.1

All Games Avg (10 games)		26.4	-	-	21.8	351	107	244	0.5	0.6	-1.2	45.4	-4.6 +3.4	O 48.2 +2.9

Colts Schedule Follow global filters

Date	Team	Points		Opponent	Opp Pts	Yds	Rush	Rec	Int	Fum	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
01/04/26 2025	Colts	-	@	Texans	-	-	-	-	-	-	+9.5	37.5	-	-
12/28/25 2025	Colts	-	vs.	Jaguars	-	-	-	-	-	-	+4.5	48.5	-	-
12/22/25 2025	Colts	-	vs.	49ers	-	-	-	-	-	-	+6.5	46.5	-	-
12/14/25 2025	Colts	16	@	Seahawks	18	217	97	120	0	0	+13.5	42.5	+2	U 34 -8.5
12/07/25 2025	Colts	19	@	Jaguars	36	294	89	205	0	1	-2.5	44.5	+17	O 55 +10.5
11/30/25 2025	Colts	16	vs.	Texans	20	287	86	201	1	2	-3.0	44.5	+4	U 36 -8.5
11/23/25 2025	Colts	20	@	Chiefs	23 OT	255	74	181	1	0	+3.5	50.0	+3	U 43 -7.0
11/09/25 2025	Colts	31	vs.	Falcons	25 OT	578	323	255	0	4	-6.5	48.5	-6	O 56 +7.5
11/02/25 2025	Colts	20	@	Steelers	27	397	55	342	0	4	-3.0	51.5	+7	U 47 -4.5
10/26/25 2025	Colts	38	vs.	Titans	14	436	164	272	1	0	-14.5	48.0	-24	O 52 +4.0
10/19/25 2025	Colts	38	@	Chargers	24	408	120	288	2	1	+2.5	49.0	-14	O 62 +13.0
10/12/25 2025	Colts	31	vs.	Cardinals	27	362	150	212	1	0	-8.5	46.5	-4	O 58 +11.5
10/05/25 2025	Colts	40	vs.	Raiders	6	317	96	221	2	1	-7.5	46.5	-34	U 46 -0.5

Home Games Avg (4 games)		31.3	-	-	16.8	351	124	227	1.3	0.8	-8.4	46.4	-14.5 +6.1	O 48.0 +1.6

All Games Avg (10 games)		26.9	-	-	22.0	355	125	230	0.8	1.3	-2.6	47.2	-4.9 +2.3	O 48.9 +1.8

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Records

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Notable Trends

The Colts are 80% (4-1) against the spread as a dog

The Colts are 75% (3-1) (L30 days) to the under

The 49ers are 75% (6-2) against the spread away

The 49ers are 80% (8-2) against the spread as a fav

The 49ers are 100% (5-0) against the spread as an away fav

The 49ers are 100% (4-0) (L30 days) against the spread

The 49ers are 100% (4-0) (L30 days) against the spread as a fav

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Colts (Home)

The Colts are 57.1% (8-6) against the spread

The Colts are 66.7% (4-2) against the spread at home

The Colts are 80% (4-1) against the spread as a dog

The Colts are 100% (1-0) against the spread as a home dog

The Colts are 50% (7-7) to the over

The Colts are 50% (3-3) to the over at home

The Colts are 60% (3-2) to the under as a dog

The Colts are 100% (1-0) to the over as a home dog

The Colts are 50% (2-2) (L30 days) against the spread

The Colts are 0% (0-1) (L30 days) against the spread at home

The Colts are 100% (2-0) (L30 days) against the spread as a dog

The Colts are 75% (3-1) (L30 days) to the under

The Colts are 100% (1-0) (L30 days) to the under at home

The Colts are 100% (2-0) (L30 days) to the under as a dog

49ers (Away)

The 49ers are 64.3% (9-5) against the spread

The 49ers are 75% (6-2) against the spread away

The 49ers are 80% (8-2) against the spread as a fav

The 49ers are 100% (5-0) against the spread as an away fav

The 49ers are 57.1% (8-6) to the over

The 49ers are 62.5% (5-3) to the over away

The 49ers are 50% (5-5) to the over as a fav

The 49ers are 60% (3-2) to the over as an away fav

The 49ers are 100% (4-0) (L30 days) against the spread

The 49ers are 100% (2-0) (L30 days) against the spread away

The 49ers are 100% (4-0) (L30 days) against the spread as a fav

The 49ers are 100% (2-0) (L30 days) against the spread as an away fav

The 49ers are 50% (2-2) (L30 days) to the over

The 49ers are 50% (1-1) (L30 days) to the over away

The 49ers are 50% (2-2) (L30 days) to the over as a fav

The 49ers are 50% (1-1) (L30 days) to the over as an away fav

Historical Matchups (Last 3 Seasons, Max 10) Follow global filters

No previous matchups between these teams in the last 3 seasons.

Algorithm	Model Side
DVOA ZScores Normalized DVOA comparision.	Neutral
Basic Stats 8-feature regression.	49ers
Luck Regression Looking at things like int, fumbles, etc.	49ers (2x)
ATS Analysis 2-feature logistic regression.	Neutral
Cover Summary	49ers
OVERALL	49ers \| No Total Edge

NFL Matchups: Predictions, Odds & Betting Trends

Mon, 12/22, Final: 48 – 27 San Francisco 49ers @ Indianapolis Colts window.TMB_PAGE_CONTEXT = { page: 'matchup', sport: "nfl", away_team: "San Francisco 49ers", home_team: "Indianapolis Colts", game_date: "2025-12-22" };

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Injury Report SFNo report INDNo report

Notes

49ers

Situational Factor(s)

Colts

Situational Factor(s)

Model Side

Model Total

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Algorithm Breakdown

Filters

Schedules

49ers Schedule Follow global filters

Colts Schedule Follow global filters

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Records

Notable Trends

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Colts (Home)

49ers (Away)

Historical Matchups (Last 3 Seasons, Max 10) Follow global filters

Mon, 12/22, Final: 48 – 27
San Francisco 49ers @ Indianapolis Colts