NFL Matchups: Predictions, Odds & Betting Trends

Sun, 12/21, Final: 28 – 24
New England Patriots @ Baltimore Ravens

Patriots: 11-3 (78.6%) - AFC East | Market Rating: +0.99

Ravens: 7-7 (50.0%) - AFC North | Market Rating: +1.98 | Home Field: +2.1 pts

Line: -3.0

Total: 48.0

Open: -2

Open: 48

Team totals: Patriots 22.5 · Ravens 26.5

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Injury Report NENo report BALNo report

Notes

Patriots

Situational Factor(s)

Lookahead: next game versus division rival

Ravens

Baller System(s)

Good defense coming back home after performing well.

Baller Index Our Exclusive NFL Baller Index is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions essentially look for teams that have over- or under-performed, in terms of points scored, relative to what would be expected based on their underlying metrics and who might be in for regression. While it does not factor in injuries, situational spots, or historic matchups into account, it can be a good place to start when thinking about a particular matchup.

Model Side

No clear side

Model Total

No clear side

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Filters

Team Comparison Stats, Records and the sections tied to them follow these filters; each team's Schedule and Historical Matchups follow them when their switch is on.

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Schedules

Patriots Schedule Follow global filters

Date	Team	Points		Opponent	Opp Pts	Yds	Rush	Rec	Int	Fum	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
01/04/26 2025	Patriots	-	vs.	Dolphins	-	-	-	-	-	-	-14.5	44.5	-	-
12/28/25 2025	Patriots	-	@	Jets	-	-	-	-	-	-	-13.0	42.5	-	-
12/21/25 2025	Patriots	-	@	Ravens	-	-	-	-	-	-	+3.0	48.0	-	-
12/14/25 2025	Patriots	31	vs.	Bills	35	401	246	155	0	2	+2.5	49.5	+4	O 66 +16.5
12/01/25 2025	Patriots	33	vs.	Giants	15	401	119	282	0	0	-7.0	46.5	-18	O 48 +1.5
11/23/25 2025	Patriots	26	@	Bengals	20	401	107	294	1	0	-7.0	51.5	-6	U 46 -5.5
11/13/25 2025	Patriots	27	vs.	Jets	14	346	65	281	0	0	-12.5	43.5	-13	U 41 -2.5
11/09/25 2025	Patriots	28	@	Buccaneers	23	436	166	270	0	1	+2.5	48.5	-5	O 51 +2.5
11/02/25 2025	Patriots	24	vs.	Falcons	23	369	110	259	0	2	-5.5	45.5	-1	O 47 +1.5
10/26/25 2025	Patriots	32	vs.	Browns	13	459	177	282	2	2	-7.0	40.5	-19	O 45 +4.5
10/19/25 2025	Patriots	31	@	Titans	13	409	175	234	1	0	-6.5	41.5	-18	O 44 +2.5
10/12/25 2025	Patriots	25	@	Saints	19	334	73	261	0	2	-3.5	45.5	-6	U 44 -1.5
10/05/25 2025	Patriots	23	@	Bills	20	344	71	273	1	2	+7.5	48.5	-3	U 43 -5.5

Away Games Avg (5 games)		26.6	-	-	19.0	385	118	266	0.6	1.0	-1.4	47.1	-7.6 +6.2	U 45.6 -1.5

All Games Avg (10 games)		28.0	-	-	19.5	390	131	259	0.5	1.1	-3.7	46.1	-8.5 +4.9	O 47.5 +1.4

Ravens Schedule Follow global filters

Date	Team	Points		Opponent	Opp Pts	Yds	Rush	Rec	Int	Fum	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
01/04/26 2025	Ravens	-	@	Steelers	-	-	-	-	-	-	-4.5	41.5	-	-
12/27/25 2025	Ravens	-	@	Packers	-	-	-	-	-	-	+2.5	37.5	-	-
12/21/25 2025	Ravens	-	vs.	Patriots	-	-	-	-	-	-	-3.0	48.0	-	-
12/14/25 2025	Ravens	24	@	Bengals	0	339	189	150	2	1	-3.0	51.5	-24	U 24 -27.5
12/07/25 2025	Ravens	22	vs.	Steelers	27	436	217	219	0	0	-5.5	43.5	+5	O 49 +5.5
11/27/25 2025	Ravens	14	vs.	Bengals	32	369	123	246	0	4	-7.0	52.5	+18	U 46 -6.5
11/23/25 2025	Ravens	23	vs.	Jets	10	251	98	153	1	1	-13.5	44.5	-13	U 33 -11.5
11/16/25 2025	Ravens	23	@	Browns	16	377	184	193	1	1	-7.5	37.5	-7	O 39 +1.5
11/09/25 2025	Ravens	27	@	Vikings	19	328	152	176	2	3	-4.5	48.5	-8	U 46 -2.5
10/30/25 2025	Ravens	28	@	Dolphins	6	354	150	204	1	0	-7.5	51.5	-22	U 34 -17.5
10/26/25 2025	Ravens	30	vs.	Bears	16	363	177	186	1	1	-2.5	44.5	-14	O 46 +1.5
10/12/25 2025	Ravens	3	vs.	Rams	17	319	179	140	0	3	+6.5	43.5	+14	U 20 -23.5
10/05/25 2025	Ravens	10	vs.	Texans	44	223	44	179	0	0	+2.5	41.5	+34	O 54 +12.5

Home Games Avg (6 games)		17.0	-	-	24.3	327	140	187	0.3	1.5	-3.3	45.0	+7.3 -10.6	U 41.3 -3.7

All Games Avg (10 games)		20.4	-	-	18.7	336	151	185	0.8	1.4	-4.2	45.9	-1.7 -2.5	U 39.1 -6.8

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Records

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Notable Trends

The Ravens are 25% (2-6) against the spread at home

The Ravens are 20% (1-4) (L30 days) against the spread

The Ravens are 20% (1-4) (L30 days) against the spread as a fav

The Patriots are 83.3% (5-1) against the spread away

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Ravens (Home)

The Ravens are 35.7% (5-9) against the spread

The Ravens are 25% (2-6) against the spread at home

The Ravens are 41.7% (5-7) against the spread as a fav

The Ravens are 33.3% (2-4) against the spread as a home fav

The Ravens are 57.1% (8-6) to the over

The Ravens are 62.5% (5-3) to the over at home

The Ravens are 58.3% (7-5) to the over as a fav

The Ravens are 66.7% (4-2) to the over as a home fav

The Ravens are 20% (1-4) (L30 days) against the spread

The Ravens are 0% (0-3) (L30 days) against the spread at home

The Ravens are 20% (1-4) (L30 days) against the spread as a fav

The Ravens are 0% (0-3) (L30 days) against the spread as a home fav

The Ravens are 60% (3-2) (L30 days) to the under

The Ravens are 66.7% (2-1) (L30 days) to the under at home

The Ravens are 60% (3-2) (L30 days) to the under as a fav

The Ravens are 66.7% (2-1) (L30 days) to the under as a home fav

Patriots (Away)

The Patriots are 64.3% (9-5) against the spread

The Patriots are 83.3% (5-1) against the spread away

The Patriots are 60% (3-2) against the spread as a dog

The Patriots are 100% (3-0) against the spread as an away dog

The Patriots are 57.1% (8-6) to the over

The Patriots are 50% (3-3) to the over away

The Patriots are 60% (3-2) to the over as a dog

The Patriots are 66.7% (2-1) to the over as an away dog

The Patriots are 33.3% (1-2) (L30 days) against the spread

The Patriots are 0% (0-1) (L30 days) against the spread away

The Patriots are 0% (0-1) (L30 days) against the spread as a dog

The Patriots are 66.7% (2-1) (L30 days) to the over

The Patriots are 100% (1-0) (L30 days) to the under away

The Patriots are 100% (1-0) (L30 days) to the over as a dog

Historical Matchups (Last 3 Seasons, Max 10) Follow global filters

Date	Team	Pts		Opponent	Pts	Yds	Rush	Rec	Int	Fum	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
09/25/22 2022	Ravens	37	@	Patriots	26	466	145	321	1	3	-2.5	44.0	-11	O 63 +19.0

All Games Avg (1 games)		37.0	-	-	26.0	466	145	321	1.0	3.0	-2.5	44.0	-11.0 +8.5	O 63.0 +19.0

Algorithm	Model Side
DVOA ZScores Normalized DVOA comparision.	Neutral
Basic Stats 8-feature regression.	Neutral
Luck Regression Looking at things like int, fumbles, etc.	Neutral
ATS Analysis 2-feature logistic regression.	Neutral
Cover Summary	No Bet
OVERALL	No Spread Edge \| No Total Edge