NFL Matchups: Predictions, Odds & Betting Trends

Sun, 11/23, Final: 26 – 20
New England Patriots @ Cincinnati Bengals

Patriots: 9-2 (81.8%) - AFC East | Market Rating: +0.55

Bengals: 3-7 (30.0%) - AFC North | Market Rating: -1.77 | Home Field: +0.8 pts

Line: +7.0

Total: 51.5

Open: +5.5

Open: 51

Team totals: Patriots 29.5 · Bengals 20.5

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Injury Report NENo report CINNo report

Notes

Patriots

Situational Factor(s)

Extended rest: Non-bye week

Rest Advantage

Bengals

Situational Factor(s)

Lookahead: next game versus division rival

Lookahead: next game is on Thursday (short 3-day rest)

Rest Disadvantage

Baller System(s)

Unders system: home dogs with next game on Thursday

Baller Index Our Exclusive NFL Baller Index is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions essentially look for teams that have over- or under-performed, in terms of points scored, relative to what would be expected based on their underlying metrics and who might be in for regression. While it does not factor in injuries, situational spots, or historic matchups into account, it can be a good place to start when thinking about a particular matchup.

Model Side

No clear side

Model Total

No clear side

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Filters

Team Comparison Stats, Records and the sections tied to them follow these filters; each team's Schedule and Historical Matchups follow them when their switch is on.

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Schedules

Patriots Schedule Follow global filters

Date	Team	Points		Opponent	Opp Pts	Yds	Rush	Rec	Int	Fum	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
12/14/25 2025	Patriots	-	vs.	Bills	-	-	-	-	-	-	+2.5	49.5	-	-
12/01/25 2025	Patriots	-	vs.	Giants	-	-	-	-	-	-	-7.0	46.5	-	-
11/23/25 2025	Patriots	-	@	Bengals	-	-	-	-	-	-	-7.0	51.5	-	-
11/13/25 2025	Patriots	27	vs.	Jets	14	346	65	281	0	0	-12.5	43.5	-13	U 41 -2.5
11/09/25 2025	Patriots	28	@	Buccaneers	23	436	166	270	0	1	+2.5	48.5	-5	O 51 +2.5
11/02/25 2025	Patriots	24	vs.	Falcons	23	369	110	259	0	2	-5.5	45.5	-1	O 47 +1.5
10/26/25 2025	Patriots	32	vs.	Browns	13	459	177	282	2	2	-7.0	40.5	-19	O 45 +4.5
10/19/25 2025	Patriots	31	@	Titans	13	409	175	234	1	0	-6.5	41.5	-18	O 44 +2.5
10/12/25 2025	Patriots	25	@	Saints	19	334	73	261	0	2	-3.5	45.5	-6	U 44 -1.5
10/05/25 2025	Patriots	23	@	Bills	20	344	71	273	1	2	+7.5	48.5	-3	U 43 -5.5
09/28/25 2025	Patriots	42	vs.	Panthers	13	307	104	203	0	0	-5.5	42.5	-29	O 55 +12.5
09/21/25 2025	Patriots	14	vs.	Steelers	21	387	119	268	1	4	+1.5	44.5	+7	U 35 -9.5
09/14/25 2025	Patriots	33	@	Dolphins	27	352	122	230	1	1	+2.5	43.5	-6	O 60 +16.5

Away Games Avg (5 games)		28.0	-	-	20.4	375	121	254	0.6	1.2	+0.5	45.5	-7.6 +8.1	O 48.4 +2.9

All Games Avg (10 games)		27.9	-	-	18.6	374	118	256	0.6	1.4	-2.7	44.4	-9.3 +6.7	O 46.5 +2.1

Bengals Schedule Follow global filters

Date	Team	Points		Opponent	Opp Pts	Yds	Rush	Rec	Int	Fum	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
12/07/25 2025	Bengals	-	@	Bills	-	-	-	-	-	-	+6.0	54.5	-	-
11/27/25 2025	Bengals	-	@	Ravens	-	-	-	-	-	-	+7.0	52.5	-	-
11/23/25 2025	Bengals	-	vs.	Patriots	-	-	-	-	-	-	+7.0	51.5	-	-
11/16/25 2025	Bengals	12	@	Steelers	34	304	105	199	0	1	+5.5	47.5	+22	U 46 -1.5
11/02/25 2025	Bengals	42	vs.	Bears	47	516	46	470	0	1	+3.0	51.5	+5	O 89 +37.5
10/26/25 2025	Bengals	38	vs.	Jets	39	404	181	223	0	0	-5.5	43.5	+1	O 77 +33.5
10/16/25 2025	Bengals	33	vs.	Steelers	31	484	142	342	2	0	+5.5	45.0	-2	O 64 +19.0
10/12/25 2025	Bengals	18	@	Packers	27	274	55	219	1	0	+14.0	44.5	+9	O 45 +0.5
10/05/25 2025	Bengals	24	vs.	Lions	37	336	85	251	0	2	+10.0	49.5	+13	O 61 +11.5
09/29/25 2025	Bengals	3	@	Broncos	28	178	53	125	1	0	+7.5	44.5	+25	U 31 -13.5
09/21/25 2025	Bengals	10	@	Vikings	48	193	53	140	0	5	+3.0	42.5	+38	O 58 +15.5
09/14/25 2025	Bengals	31	vs.	Jaguars	27	365	48	317	2	0	-3.5	49.5	-4	O 58 +8.5
09/07/25 2025	Bengals	17	@	Browns	16	159	46	113	2	0	-4.5	47.5	-1	U 33 -14.5

Home Games Avg (5 games)		33.6	-	-	36.2	421	100	321	0.8	0.6	+1.9	47.8	+2.6 -0.7	O 69.8 +22.0

All Games Avg (10 games)		22.8	-	-	33.4	321	81	240	0.8	0.9	+3.5	46.6	+10.6 -7.1	O 56.2 +9.7

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Records

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Notable Trends

The Bengals are 30% (3-7) against the spread

The Bengals are 28.6% (2-5) against the spread as a dog

The Bengals are 70% (7-3) to the over

The Bengals are 100% (5-0) to the over at home

The Bengals are 71.4% (5-2) to the over as a dog

The Patriots are 72.7% (8-3) against the spread

The Patriots are 100% (5-0) against the spread away

The Patriots are 71.4% (5-2) against the spread as a fav

The Patriots are 80% (4-1) (L30 days) against the spread

The Patriots are 75% (3-1) (L30 days) against the spread as a fav

The Patriots are 80% (4-1) (L30 days) to the over

The Patriots are 75% (3-1) (L30 days) to the over as a fav

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Bengals (Home)

The Bengals are 30% (3-7) against the spread

The Bengals are 40% (2-3) against the spread at home

The Bengals are 28.6% (2-5) against the spread as a dog

The Bengals are 33.3% (1-2) against the spread as a home dog

The Bengals are 70% (7-3) to the over

The Bengals are 100% (5-0) to the over at home

The Bengals are 71.4% (5-2) to the over as a dog

The Bengals are 100% (3-0) to the over as a home dog

The Bengals are 0% (0-3) (L30 days) against the spread

The Bengals are 0% (0-2) (L30 days) against the spread at home

The Bengals are 0% (0-2) (L30 days) against the spread as a dog

The Bengals are 0% (0-1) (L30 days) against the spread as a home dog

The Bengals are 66.7% (2-1) (L30 days) to the over

The Bengals are 100% (2-0) (L30 days) to the over at home

The Bengals are 50% (1-1) (L30 days) to the over as a dog

The Bengals are 100% (1-0) (L30 days) to the over as a home dog

Patriots (Away)

The Patriots are 72.7% (8-3) against the spread

The Patriots are 100% (5-0) against the spread away

The Patriots are 71.4% (5-2) against the spread as a fav

The Patriots are 100% (2-0) against the spread as an away fav

The Patriots are 54.5% (6-5) to the over

The Patriots are 60% (3-2) to the over away

The Patriots are 57.1% (4-3) to the over as a fav

The Patriots are 50% (1-1) to the over as an away fav

The Patriots are 80% (4-1) (L30 days) against the spread

The Patriots are 100% (2-0) (L30 days) against the spread away

The Patriots are 75% (3-1) (L30 days) against the spread as a fav

The Patriots are 100% (1-0) (L30 days) against the spread as an away fav

The Patriots are 80% (4-1) (L30 days) to the over

The Patriots are 100% (2-0) (L30 days) to the over away

The Patriots are 75% (3-1) (L30 days) to the over as a fav

The Patriots are 100% (1-0) (L30 days) to the over as an away fav

Historical Matchups (Last 3 Seasons, Max 10) Follow global filters

Date	Team	Pts		Opponent	Pts	Yds	Rush	Rec	Int	Fum	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
09/08/24 2024	Bengals	10	vs.	Patriots	16	234	70	164	0	3	-8.0	40.5	+6	U 26 -14.5
12/24/22 2022	Bengals	22	@	Patriots	18	301	61	240	2	4	-3.0	41.5	-4	U 40 -1.5

Bengals as Home (1 games)		10.0	-	-	16.0	234	70	164	0.0	3.0	-8.0	40.5	+6.0 -14.0	U 26.0 -14.5

All Games Avg (2 games)		16.0	-	-	17.0	268	66	202	1.0	3.5	-5.5	41.0	+1.0 -6.5	U 33.0 -8.0

Algorithm	Model Side
DVOA ZScores Normalized DVOA comparision.	Neutral
Basic Stats 8-feature regression.	Neutral
Luck Regression Looking at things like int, fumbles, etc.	Neutral
ATS Analysis 2-feature logistic regression.	Neutral
Cover Summary	No Bet
OVERALL	No Spread Edge \| No Total Edge

NFL Matchups: Predictions, Odds & Betting Trends

Sun, 11/23, Final: 26 – 20 New England Patriots @ Cincinnati Bengals window.TMB_PAGE_CONTEXT = { page: 'matchup', sport: "nfl", away_team: "New England Patriots", home_team: "Cincinnati Bengals", game_date: "2025-11-23" };

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Injury Report NENo report CINNo report

Notes

Patriots

Situational Factor(s)

Bengals

Situational Factor(s)

Baller System(s)

Model Side

Model Total

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Algorithm Breakdown

Filters

Schedules

Patriots Schedule Follow global filters

Bengals Schedule Follow global filters

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Records

Notable Trends

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Bengals (Home)

Patriots (Away)

Historical Matchups (Last 3 Seasons, Max 10) Follow global filters

Sun, 11/23, Final: 26 – 20
New England Patriots @ Cincinnati Bengals