NFL Matchups: Predictions, Odds & Betting Trends

Sun, 10/19, Final: 32 – 33
New York Giants @ Denver Broncos

Giants: 2-4 (33.3%) - NFC East | Market Rating: -1.91

Broncos: 4-2 (66.7%) - AFC West | Market Rating: +1.14 | Home Field: +1.6 pts

Line: -8.0

Total: 40.5

Open: -8

Open: 41

Team totals: Giants 15.5 · Broncos 24.5

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Games
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Injury Report NYGNo report DENNo report

Notes

Giants

Situational Factor(s)

Coming off a win as a dog (letdown)

Lookahead: next game versus division rival

Extended rest: Non-bye week

Rest Advantage

Broncos

Situational Factor(s)

Rest Disadvantage

Baller System(s)

Fade an underdog who won their last game w/ more than 2 Rushing TD

Baller Index Our Exclusive NFL Baller Index is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions essentially look for teams that have over- or under-performed, in terms of points scored, relative to what would be expected based on their underlying metrics and who might be in for regression. While it does not factor in injuries, situational spots, or historic matchups into account, it can be a good place to start when thinking about a particular matchup.

Model Side

No clear side

Model Total

No clear side

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Filters

Team Comparison Stats, Records and the sections tied to them follow these filters; each team's Schedule and Historical Matchups follow them when their switch is on.

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Schedules

Giants Schedule Follow global filters

Date	Team	Points		Opponent	Opp Pts	Yds	Rush	Rec	Int	Fum	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
11/02/25 2025	Giants	-	vs.	49ers	-	-	-	-	-	-	+2.5	47.5	-	-
10/26/25 2025	Giants	-	@	Eagles	-	-	-	-	-	-	+7.5	43.5	-	-
10/19/25 2025	Giants	-	@	Broncos	-	-	-	-	-	-	+8.0	40.5	-	-
10/09/25 2025	Giants	34	vs.	Eagles	17	367	172	195	1	0	+7.5	40.5	-17	O 51 +10.5
10/05/25 2025	Giants	14	@	Saints	26	338	136	202	0	3	+2.5	41.5	+12	U 40 -1.5
09/28/25 2025	Giants	21	vs.	Chargers	18	280	161	119	2	2	+6.0	42.5	-3	U 39 -3.5
09/21/25 2025	Giants	9	vs.	Chiefs	22	290	130	160	0	0	+6.0	44.5	+13	U 31 -13.5
09/14/25 2025	Giants	37	@	Cowboys	40 OT	534	84	450	1	1	+4.5	44.5	+3	O 77 +32.5
09/07/25 2025	Giants	6	@	Commanders	21	242	74	168	0	1	+6.5	45.5	+15	U 27 -18.5
Last season · shown for reference, not in the averages
01/05/25 2024	Giants	13	@	Eagles	20	238	100	138	0	1	+3.5	35.5	+7	U 33 -2.5
12/29/24 2024	Giants	45	vs.	Colts	33	389	80	309	2	1	+7.5	40.5	-12	O 78 +37.5
12/22/24 2024	Giants	7	@	Falcons	34	255	45	210	1	1	+9.5	43.0	+27	U 41 -2.0
12/15/24 2024	Giants	14	vs.	Ravens	35	246	55	191	0	0	+16.5	43.5	+21	O 49 +5.5

Away Games Avg (3 games this season)		19.0	-	-	29.0	371	98	273	0.3	1.7	+4.5	43.8	+10.0 -5.5	O 48.0 +4.2

All Games Avg (6 games this season)		20.2	-	-	24.0	342	126	216	0.7	1.2	+5.5	43.2	+3.8 +1.7	O 44.2 +1.0

Broncos Schedule Follow global filters

Date	Team	Points		Opponent	Opp Pts	Yds	Rush	Rec	Int	Fum	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
11/02/25 2025	Broncos	-	@	Texans	-	-	-	-	-	-	+1.5	40.5	-	-
10/26/25 2025	Broncos	-	vs.	Cowboys	-	-	-	-	-	-	-3.5	51.5	-	-
10/19/25 2025	Broncos	-	vs.	Giants	-	-	-	-	-	-	-8.0	40.5	-	-
10/12/25 2025	Broncos	13	vs.	Jets	11	252	78	174	0	2	-7.0	43.5	-2	U 24 -19.5
10/05/25 2025	Broncos	21	@	Eagles	17	372	130	242	0	0	+4.0	44.5	-4	U 38 -6.5
09/29/25 2025	Broncos	28	vs.	Bengals	3	512	186	326	0	0	-7.5	44.5	-25	U 31 -13.5
09/21/25 2025	Broncos	20	@	Chargers	23	271	118	153	1	0	+2.5	45.5	+3	U 43 -2.5
09/14/25 2025	Broncos	28	@	Colts	29	324	118	206	0	0	-1.5	43.5	+1	O 57 +13.5
09/07/25 2025	Broncos	20	vs.	Titans	12	327	151	176	0	2	-8.5	42.5	-8	U 32 -10.5
Last season · shown for reference, not in the averages
01/12/25 2024	Broncos	7	@	Bills	31	238	79	159	0	0	+7.5	49.5	+24	U 38 -11.5
01/05/25 2024	Broncos	38	vs.	Chiefs	0	479	158	321	0	0	-10.5	40.5	-38	U 38 -2.5
12/28/24 2024	Broncos	24	@	Bengals	30 OT	342	123	219	0	2	+3.5	50.5	+6	O 54 +3.5
12/19/24 2024	Broncos	27	@	Chargers	34	373	110	263	1	1	+3.0	41.5	+7	O 61 +19.5

Home Games Avg (2 games this season)		24.0	-	-	7.5	420	169	251	0.0	1.0	-8.0	43.5	-16.5 +8.5	U 31.5 -12.0

All Games Avg (6 games this season)		21.7	-	-	15.8	343	130	213	0.2	0.7	-3.0	44.0	-5.8 +2.8	U 37.5 -6.5

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Records

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Notable Trends

The Broncos are 25% (1-3) against the spread as a fav

The Broncos are 83.3% (5-1) to the under

The Broncos are 75% (3-1) to the under as a fav

The Broncos are 80% (4-1) (L30 days) to the under

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Broncos (Home)

The Broncos are 33.3% (2-4) against the spread

The Broncos are 50% (1-1) against the spread at home

The Broncos are 25% (1-3) against the spread as a fav

The Broncos are 50% (1-1) against the spread as a home fav

The Broncos are 83.3% (5-1) to the under

The Broncos are 100% (2-0) to the under at home

The Broncos are 75% (3-1) to the under as a fav

The Broncos are 100% (2-0) to the under as a home fav

The Broncos are 40% (2-3) (L30 days) against the spread

The Broncos are 100% (1-0) (L30 days) against the spread at home

The Broncos are 33.3% (1-2) (L30 days) against the spread as a fav

The Broncos are 100% (1-0) (L30 days) against the spread as a home fav

The Broncos are 80% (4-1) (L30 days) to the under

The Broncos are 100% (1-0) (L30 days) to the under at home

The Broncos are 66.7% (2-1) (L30 days) to the under as a fav

The Broncos are 100% (1-0) (L30 days) to the under as a home fav

Giants (Away)

The Giants are 50% (3-3) against the spread

The Giants are 33.3% (1-2) against the spread away

The Giants are 50% (3-3) against the spread as a dog

The Giants are 33.3% (1-2) against the spread as an away dog

The Giants are 66.7% (4-2) to the under

The Giants are 66.7% (2-1) to the under away

The Giants are 66.7% (4-2) to the under as a dog

The Giants are 66.7% (2-1) to the under as an away dog

The Giants are 60% (3-2) (L30 days) against the spread

The Giants are 50% (1-1) (L30 days) against the spread away

The Giants are 60% (3-2) (L30 days) against the spread as a dog

The Giants are 50% (1-1) (L30 days) against the spread as an away dog

The Giants are 60% (3-2) (L30 days) to the under

The Giants are 50% (1-1) (L30 days) to the over away

The Giants are 60% (3-2) (L30 days) to the under as a dog

The Giants are 50% (1-1) (L30 days) to the over as an away dog

Historical Matchups (Last 3 Seasons, Max 10) Follow global filters

No previous matchups between these teams in the last 3 seasons.

Algorithm	Model Side
DVOA ZScores Normalized DVOA comparision.	Neutral
Basic Stats 8-feature regression.	Neutral
Luck Regression Looking at things like int, fumbles, etc.	Neutral
ATS Analysis 2-feature logistic regression.	Neutral
Cover Summary	No Bet
OVERALL	No Spread Edge \| No Total Edge

NFL Matchups: Predictions, Odds & Betting Trends

Sun, 10/19, Final: 32 – 33 New York Giants @ Denver Broncos window.TMB_PAGE_CONTEXT = { page: 'matchup', sport: "nfl", away_team: "New York Giants", home_team: "Denver Broncos", game_date: "2025-10-19" };

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Injury Report NYGNo report DENNo report

Notes

Giants

Situational Factor(s)

Broncos

Situational Factor(s)

Baller System(s)

Model Side

Model Total

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Algorithm Breakdown

Filters

Schedules

Giants Schedule Follow global filters

Broncos Schedule Follow global filters

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Records

Notable Trends

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Broncos (Home)

Giants (Away)

Historical Matchups (Last 3 Seasons, Max 10) Follow global filters

Sun, 10/19, Final: 32 – 33
New York Giants @ Denver Broncos