NFL Matchups: Predictions, Odds & Betting Trends

Sun, 10/12, Final: 11 – 13
New York Jets / Denver Broncos Neutral site

Jets: 0-5 (0.0%) - AFC East | Market Rating: -0.96

Broncos: 3-2 (60.0%) - AFC West | Market Rating: +0.82

Line: -7.0

Total: 43.5

Open: +6

Open: 42.5

Team totals: Jets 17.5 · Broncos 25.5

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Injury Report NYJNo report DENNo report

Notes

Jets

Situational Factor(s)

Coming off a loss as a favorite (bounce back)

Broncos

Situational Factor(s)

Coming off a win as a dog (letdown)

Baller System(s)

Unders system: back an under when a favorite is a bigger favorite than their previous game and their total is lower

Baller Index Our Exclusive NFL Baller Index is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions essentially look for teams that have over- or under-performed, in terms of points scored, relative to what would be expected based on their underlying metrics and who might be in for regression. While it does not factor in injuries, situational spots, or historic matchups into account, it can be a good place to start when thinking about a particular matchup.

Model Side

Jets

58.75% probability

Model Total

No clear side

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Filters

Team Comparison Stats, Records and the sections tied to them follow these filters; each team's Schedule and Historical Matchups follow them when their switch is on.

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Schedules

Jets Schedule Follow global filters

Date	Team	Points		Opponent	Opp Pts	Yds	Rush	Rec	Int	Fum	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
10/26/25 2025	Jets	-	@	Bengals	-	-	-	-	-	-	+5.5	43.5	-	-
10/19/25 2025	Jets	-	vs.	Panthers	-	-	-	-	-	-	-1.5	39.5	-	-
10/12/25 2025	Jets	-	vs.	Broncos	-	-	-	-	-	-	+7.0	43.5	-	-
10/05/25 2025	Jets	22	vs.	Cowboys	37	427	144	283	0	1	-1.5	47.5	+15	O 59 +11.5
09/29/25 2025	Jets	21	@	Dolphins	27	423	197	226	0	3	+2.5	43.5	+6	O 48 +4.5
09/21/25 2025	Jets	27	@	Buccaneers	29	296	99	197	0	1	+6.5	43.5	+2	O 56 +12.5
09/14/25 2025	Jets	10	vs.	Bills	30	183	100	83	0	3	+6.0	47.5	+20	U 40 -7.5
09/07/25 2025	Jets	32	vs.	Steelers	34	400	182	218	0	1	+3.0	38.0	+2	O 66 +28.0
Last season · shown for reference, not in the averages
01/05/25 2024	Jets	32	vs.	Dolphins	20	392	118	274	2	1	-2.5	39.5	-12	O 52 +12.5
12/29/24 2024	Jets	14	@	Bills	40	307	112	195	0	2	+10.0	44.0	+26	O 54 +10.0
12/22/24 2024	Jets	9	vs.	Rams	19	331	75	256	1	2	+3.0	47.0	+10	U 28 -19.0
12/15/24 2024	Jets	32	@	Jaguars	25	414	125	289	2	0	-3.5	41.5	-7	O 57 +15.5
12/08/24 2024	Jets	26	@	Dolphins	32 OT	422	83	339	0	0	+6.5	45.0	+6	O 58 +13.0

Away Games Avg (2 games this season)		24.0	-	-	28.0	360	148	212	0.0	2.0	+4.5	43.5	+4.0 +0.5	O 52.0 +8.5

All Games Avg (5 games this season)		22.4	-	-	31.4	346	144	201	0.0	1.8	+3.3	44.0	+9.0 -5.7	O 53.8 +9.8

Broncos Schedule Follow global filters

Date	Team	Points		Opponent	Opp Pts	Yds	Rush	Rec	Int	Fum	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
10/26/25 2025	Broncos	-	vs.	Cowboys	-	-	-	-	-	-	-3.5	51.5	-	-
10/19/25 2025	Broncos	-	vs.	Giants	-	-	-	-	-	-	-8.0	40.5	-	-
10/12/25 2025	Broncos	-	vs.	Jets	-	-	-	-	-	-	-7.0	43.5	-	-
10/05/25 2025	Broncos	21	@	Eagles	17	372	130	242	0	0	+4.0	44.5	-4	U 38 -6.5
09/29/25 2025	Broncos	28	vs.	Bengals	3	512	186	326	0	0	-7.5	44.5	-25	U 31 -13.5
09/21/25 2025	Broncos	20	@	Chargers	23	271	118	153	1	0	+2.5	45.5	+3	U 43 -2.5
09/14/25 2025	Broncos	28	@	Colts	29	324	118	206	0	0	-1.5	43.5	+1	O 57 +13.5
09/07/25 2025	Broncos	20	vs.	Titans	12	327	151	176	0	2	-8.5	42.5	-8	U 32 -10.5
Last season · shown for reference, not in the averages
01/12/25 2024	Broncos	7	@	Bills	31	238	79	159	0	0	+7.5	49.5	+24	U 38 -11.5
01/05/25 2024	Broncos	38	vs.	Chiefs	0	479	158	321	0	0	-10.5	40.5	-38	U 38 -2.5
12/28/24 2024	Broncos	24	@	Bengals	30 OT	342	123	219	0	2	+3.5	50.5	+6	O 54 +3.5
12/19/24 2024	Broncos	27	@	Chargers	34	373	110	263	1	1	+3.0	41.5	+7	O 61 +19.5
12/15/24 2024	Broncos	31	vs.	Colts	13	202	72	130	2	0	-4.5	44.0	-18	P 44 0.0

Home Games Avg (2 games this season)		24.0	-	-	7.5	420	169	251	0.0	1.0	-8.0	43.5	-16.5 +8.5	U 31.5 -12.0

All Games Avg (5 games this season)		23.4	-	-	16.8	361	141	221	0.2	0.4	-2.2	44.1	-6.6 +4.4	U 40.2 -3.9

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Records

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Notable Trends

The Broncos are 80% (4-1) to the under

The Broncos are 80% (4-1) (L30 days) to the under

The Jets are 80% (4-1) to the over

The Jets are 75% (3-1) to the over as a dog

The Jets are 80% (4-1) (L30 days) to the over

The Jets are 75% (3-1) (L30 days) to the over as a dog

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Broncos (Home)

The Broncos are 40% (2-3) against the spread

The Broncos are 50% (1-1) against the spread at home

The Broncos are 33.3% (1-2) against the spread as a fav

The Broncos are 50% (1-1) against the spread as a home fav

The Broncos are 80% (4-1) to the under

The Broncos are 100% (2-0) to the under at home

The Broncos are 66.7% (2-1) to the under as a fav

The Broncos are 100% (2-0) to the under as a home fav

The Broncos are 40% (2-3) (L30 days) against the spread

The Broncos are 50% (1-1) (L30 days) against the spread at home

The Broncos are 33.3% (1-2) (L30 days) against the spread as a fav

The Broncos are 50% (1-1) (L30 days) against the spread as a home fav

The Broncos are 80% (4-1) (L30 days) to the under

The Broncos are 100% (2-0) (L30 days) to the under at home

The Broncos are 66.7% (2-1) (L30 days) to the under as a fav

The Broncos are 100% (2-0) (L30 days) to the under as a home fav

Jets (Away)

The Jets are 40% (2-3) against the spread

The Jets are 50% (1-1) against the spread away

The Jets are 50% (2-2) against the spread as a dog

The Jets are 50% (1-1) against the spread as an away dog

The Jets are 80% (4-1) to the over

The Jets are 100% (2-0) to the over away

The Jets are 75% (3-1) to the over as a dog

The Jets are 100% (2-0) to the over as an away dog

The Jets are 40% (2-3) (L30 days) against the spread

The Jets are 50% (1-1) (L30 days) against the spread away

The Jets are 50% (2-2) (L30 days) against the spread as a dog

The Jets are 50% (1-1) (L30 days) against the spread as an away dog

The Jets are 80% (4-1) (L30 days) to the over

The Jets are 100% (2-0) (L30 days) to the over away

The Jets are 75% (3-1) (L30 days) to the over as a dog

The Jets are 100% (2-0) (L30 days) to the over as an away dog

Historical Matchups (Last 3 Seasons, Max 10) Follow global filters

Date	Team	Pts		Opponent	Pts	Yds	Rush	Rec	Int	Fum	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
09/29/24 2024	Broncos	10	@	Jets	9	289	64	225	0	1	+8.0	39.5	-1	U 19 -20.5
10/08/23 2023	Broncos	21	vs.	Jets	31	335	139	196	1	4	-2.5	42.5	+10	O 52 +9.5
10/23/22 2022	Broncos	9	vs.	Jets	16	330	105	225	0	1	+1.5	37.0	+7	U 25 -12.0

Broncos as Home (2 games)		15.0	-	-	23.5	333	122	211	0.5	2.5	-0.5	39.8	+8.5 -9.0	U 38.5 -1.3

All Games Avg (3 games)		13.3	-	-	18.7	318	103	215	0.3	2.0	+2.3	39.7	+5.3 -3.0	U 32.0 -7.7

Algorithm	Model Side
DVOA ZScores Normalized DVOA comparision.	Jets (2x)
Basic Stats 8-feature regression.	Neutral
Luck Regression Looking at things like int, fumbles, etc.	Neutral
ATS Analysis 2-feature logistic regression.	Jets (2x)
Cover Summary	Jets
OVERALL	Jets \| No Total Edge

NFL Matchups: Predictions, Odds & Betting Trends

Sun, 10/12, Final: 11 – 13 New York Jets / Denver Broncos Neutral site window.TMB_PAGE_CONTEXT = { page: 'matchup', sport: "nfl", away_team: "New York Jets", home_team: "Denver Broncos", game_date: "2025-10-12" };

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Injury Report NYJNo report DENNo report

Notes

Jets

Situational Factor(s)

Broncos

Situational Factor(s)

Baller System(s)

Model Side

Model Total

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Algorithm Breakdown

Filters

Schedules

Jets Schedule Follow global filters

Broncos Schedule Follow global filters

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Records

Notable Trends

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Broncos (Home)

Jets (Away)

Historical Matchups (Last 3 Seasons, Max 10) Follow global filters

Sun, 10/12, Final: 11 – 13
New York Jets / Denver Broncos Neutral site