NFL Matchups: Predictions, Odds & Betting Trends

Sun, 9/28, Final: 20 – 27
Indianapolis Colts @ Los Angeles Rams

Colts: 3-0 (100.0%) - AFC South | Market Rating: 0.00

Rams: 2-1 (66.7%) - NFC West | Market Rating: +0.44 | Home Field: +1.6 pts

Line: -3.5

Total: 49.5

Open: -5

Open: 46.5

Team totals: Colts 23.5 · Rams 26.5

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Injury Report INDNo report LANo report

Notes

Colts

Situational Factor(s)

East Coast team traveling West

Baller System(s)

Fade home favorites off a loss

Fade home team whose next game is on Thursday

Rams

Situational Factor(s)

First game home off 2+ game road trip

Lookahead: next game versus division rival

Lookahead: next game is on Thursday (short 3-day rest)

Baller Index Our Exclusive NFL Baller Index is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions essentially look for teams that have over- or under-performed, in terms of points scored, relative to what would be expected based on their underlying metrics and who might be in for regression. While it does not factor in injuries, situational spots, or historic matchups into account, it can be a good place to start when thinking about a particular matchup.

Model Side

No clear side

Model Total

No clear side

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Filters

Team Comparison Stats, Records and the sections tied to them follow these filters; each team's Schedule and Historical Matchups follow them when their switch is on.

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Schedules

Colts Schedule Follow global filters

Date	Team	Points		Opponent	Opp Pts	Yds	Rush	Rec	Int	Fum	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
10/12/25 2025	Colts	-	vs.	Cardinals	-	-	-	-	-	-	-8.5	46.5	-	-
10/05/25 2025	Colts	-	vs.	Raiders	-	-	-	-	-	-	-7.5	46.5	-	-
09/28/25 2025	Colts	-	@	Rams	-	-	-	-	-	-	+3.5	49.5	-	-
09/21/25 2025	Colts	41	@	Titans	20	365	137	228	1	0	-6.0	42.5	-21	O 61 +18.5
09/14/25 2025	Colts	29	vs.	Broncos	28	483	167	316	1	0	+1.5	43.5	-1	O 57 +13.5
09/07/25 2025	Colts	33	vs.	Dolphins	8	428	156	272	2	0	-1.5	47.0	-25	U 41 -6.0
Last season · shown for reference, not in the averages
01/05/25 2024	Colts	26	vs.	Jaguars	23 OT	441	177	264	1	0	-3.5	46.5	-3	O 49 +2.5
12/29/24 2024	Colts	33	@	Giants	45	456	126	330	0	1	-7.5	40.5	+12	O 78 +37.5
12/22/24 2024	Colts	38	vs.	Titans	30	466	335	131	3	0	-4.0	43.0	-8	O 68 +25.0
12/15/24 2024	Colts	13	@	Broncos	31	321	149	172	3	3	+4.5	44.0	+18	P 44 0.0
12/01/24 2024	Colts	25	@	Patriots	24	253	144	109	1	0	-2.5	41.0	-1	O 49 +8.0
11/24/24 2024	Colts	6	vs.	Lions	24	268	96	172	0	2	+7.0	50.5	+18	U 30 -20.5
11/17/24 2024	Colts	28	@	Jets	27	363	91	272	0	2	+4.5	43.0	-1	O 55 +12.0

Away Games Avg (1 game this season)		41.0	-	-	20.0	365	137	228	1.0	0.0	-6.0	42.5	-21.0 +15.0	O 61.0 +18.5

All Games Avg (3 games this season)		34.3	-	-	18.7	425	153	272	1.3	0.0	-2.0	44.3	-15.7 +13.7	O 53.0 +8.7

Rams Schedule Follow global filters

Date	Team	Points		Opponent	Opp Pts	Yds	Rush	Rec	Int	Fum	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
10/12/25 2025	Rams	-	@	Ravens	-	-	-	-	-	-	-6.5	43.5	-	-
10/02/25 2025	Rams	-	vs.	49ers	-	-	-	-	-	-	-7.5	43.5	-	-
09/28/25 2025	Rams	-	vs.	Colts	-	-	-	-	-	-	-3.5	49.5	-	-
09/21/25 2025	Rams	26	@	Eagles	33	356	160	196	0	0	+3.5	45.5	+7	O 59 +13.5
09/14/25 2025	Rams	33	@	Titans	19	447	149	298	0	1	-5.5	41.5	-14	O 52 +10.5
09/07/25 2025	Rams	14	vs.	Texans	9	317	72	245	1	2	-3.0	43.0	-5	U 23 -20.0
Last season · shown for reference, not in the averages
01/19/25 2024	Rams	22	@	Eagles	28	435	111	324	0	3	+7.0	43.5	+6	O 50 +6.5
01/13/25 2024	Rams	27	vs.	Vikings	9	299	90	209	1	0	+2.5	47.5	-18	U 36 -11.5
01/05/25 2024	Rams	25	vs.	Seahawks	30	418	84	334	0	0	+7.5	38.5	+5	O 55 +16.5
12/28/24 2024	Rams	13	vs.	Cardinals	9	257	68	189	2	0	-6.5	48.0	-4	U 22 -26.0
12/22/24 2024	Rams	19	@	Jets	9	242	132	110	0	0	-3.0	47.0	-10	U 28 -19.0
12/12/24 2024	Rams	12	@	49ers	6	302	142	160	1	0	+3.0	48.5	-6	U 18 -30.5
12/08/24 2024	Rams	44	vs.	Bills	42	457	137	320	0	0	+3.5	49.5	-2	O 86 +36.5

Home Games Avg (1 game this season)		14.0	-	-	9.0	317	72	245	1.0	2.0	-3.0	43.0	-5.0 +2.0	U 23.0 -20.0

All Games Avg (3 games this season)		24.3	-	-	20.3	373	127	246	0.3	1.0	-1.7	43.3	-4.0 +2.3	O 44.7 +1.3

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Records

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Notable Trends

Notable trends will be listed here starting Week 4.

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Rams (Home)

The Rams are 66.7% (2-1) against the spread

The Rams are 100% (1-0) against the spread at home

The Rams are 100% (2-0) against the spread as a fav

The Rams are 100% (1-0) against the spread as a home fav

The Rams are 66.7% (2-1) to the over

The Rams are 100% (1-0) to the under at home

The Rams are 50% (1-1) to the over as a fav

The Rams are 100% (1-0) to the under as a home fav

The Rams are 66.7% (2-1) (L30 days) against the spread

The Rams are 100% (1-0) (L30 days) against the spread at home

The Rams are 100% (2-0) (L30 days) against the spread as a fav

The Rams are 100% (1-0) (L30 days) against the spread as a home fav

The Rams are 66.7% (2-1) (L30 days) to the over

The Rams are 100% (1-0) (L30 days) to the under at home

The Rams are 50% (1-1) (L30 days) to the over as a fav

The Rams are 100% (1-0) (L30 days) to the under as a home fav

Colts (Away)

The Colts are 100% (3-0) against the spread

The Colts are 100% (1-0) against the spread away

The Colts are 100% (1-0) against the spread as a dog

The Colts are 66.7% (2-1) to the over

The Colts are 100% (1-0) to the over away

The Colts are 100% (1-0) to the over as a dog

The Colts are 100% (3-0) (L30 days) against the spread

The Colts are 100% (1-0) (L30 days) against the spread away

The Colts are 100% (1-0) (L30 days) against the spread as a dog

The Colts are 66.7% (2-1) (L30 days) to the over

The Colts are 100% (1-0) (L30 days) to the over away

The Colts are 100% (1-0) (L30 days) to the over as a dog

Historical Matchups (Last 3 Seasons, Max 10) Follow global filters

Date	Team	Pts		Opponent	Pts	Yds	Rush	Rec	Int	Fum	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
10/01/23 2023	Rams	29	@	Colts	23 OT	333	133	200	1	2	-1.0	44.5	-6	O 52 +7.5

All Games Avg (1 games)		29.0	-	-	23.0	333	133	200	1.0	2.0	-1.0	44.5	-6.0 +5.0	O 52.0 +7.5

Algorithm	Model Side
DVOA ZScores Normalized DVOA comparision.	Neutral
Basic Stats 8-feature regression.	Neutral
Luck Regression Looking at things like int, fumbles, etc.	Neutral
ATS Analysis 2-feature logistic regression.	Neutral
Cover Summary	No Bet
OVERALL	No Spread Edge \| No Total Edge

NFL Matchups: Predictions, Odds & Betting Trends

Sun, 9/28, Final: 20 – 27 Indianapolis Colts @ Los Angeles Rams window.TMB_PAGE_CONTEXT = { page: 'matchup', sport: "nfl", away_team: "Indianapolis Colts", home_team: "Los Angeles Rams", game_date: "2025-09-28" };

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Injury Report INDNo report LANo report

Notes

Colts

Situational Factor(s)

Baller System(s)

Rams

Situational Factor(s)

Model Side

Model Total

View All Algorithms

Algorithm Breakdown

Filters

Schedules

Colts Schedule Follow global filters

Rams Schedule Follow global filters

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Records

Notable Trends

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Rams (Home)

Colts (Away)

Historical Matchups (Last 3 Seasons, Max 10) Follow global filters

Sun, 9/28, Final: 20 – 27
Indianapolis Colts @ Los Angeles Rams