NFL Matchups: Predictions, Odds & Betting Trends

Sun, 9/21, Final: 20 – 23
Denver Broncos @ Los Angeles Chargers

Broncos: 1-1 (50.0%) - AFC West | Market Rating: +0.53

Chargers: 2-0 (100.0%) - AFC West | Market Rating: +0.08 | Home Field: +1.6 pts

Line: -2.5

Total: 45.5

Open: -2

Open: 43.5

Team totals: Broncos 21.5 · Chargers 23.5

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Injury Report DENNo report LACNo report

Notes

Broncos

Situational Factor(s)

Coming off a loss as a favorite (bounce back)

Rest Advantage

Chargers

Situational Factor(s)

Rest Disadvantage

Short rest: 4 or 5 days

Baller Index Our Exclusive NFL Baller Index is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions essentially look for teams that have over- or under-performed, in terms of points scored, relative to what would be expected based on their underlying metrics and who might be in for regression. While it does not factor in injuries, situational spots, or historic matchups into account, it can be a good place to start when thinking about a particular matchup.

Model Side

Broncos

55.63% probability

Model Total

No clear side

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Filters

Team Comparison Stats, Records and the sections tied to them follow these filters; each team's Schedule and Historical Matchups follow them when their switch is on.

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Schedules

Broncos Schedule Follow global filters

Date	Team	Points		Opponent	Opp Pts	Yds	Rush	Rec	Int	Fum	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
10/05/25 2025	Broncos	-	@	Eagles	-	-	-	-	-	-	+4.0	44.5	-	-
09/29/25 2025	Broncos	-	vs.	Bengals	-	-	-	-	-	-	-7.5	44.5	-	-
09/21/25 2025	Broncos	-	@	Chargers	-	-	-	-	-	-	+2.5	45.5	-	-
09/14/25 2025	Broncos	28	@	Colts	29	324	118	206	0	0	-1.5	43.5	+1	O 57 +13.5
09/07/25 2025	Broncos	20	vs.	Titans	12	327	151	176	0	2	-8.5	42.5	-8	U 32 -10.5
Last season · shown for reference, not in the averages
01/12/25 2024	Broncos	7	@	Bills	31	238	79	159	0	0	+7.5	49.5	+24	U 38 -11.5
01/05/25 2024	Broncos	38	vs.	Chiefs	0	479	158	321	0	0	-10.5	40.5	-38	U 38 -2.5
12/28/24 2024	Broncos	24	@	Bengals	30 OT	342	123	219	0	2	+3.5	50.5	+6	O 54 +3.5
12/19/24 2024	Broncos	27	@	Chargers	34	373	110	263	1	1	+3.0	41.5	+7	O 61 +19.5
12/15/24 2024	Broncos	31	vs.	Colts	13	202	72	130	2	0	-4.5	44.0	-18	P 44 0.0
12/02/24 2024	Broncos	41	vs.	Browns	32	400	106	294	3	0	-6.5	41.5	-9	O 73 +31.5
11/24/24 2024	Broncos	29	@	Raiders	19	336	63	273	1	0	-6.0	41.5	-10	O 48 +6.5
11/17/24 2024	Broncos	38	vs.	Falcons	6	412	105	307	1	1	-2.0	44.5	-32	U 44 -0.5

Away Games Avg (1 game this season)		28.0	-	-	29.0	324	118	206	0.0	0.0	-1.5	43.5	+1.0 -2.5	O 57.0 +13.5

All Games Avg (2 games this season)		24.0	-	-	20.5	326	135	191	0.0	1.0	-5.0	43.0	-3.5 -1.5	O 44.5 +1.5

Chargers Schedule Follow global filters

Date	Team	Points		Opponent	Opp Pts	Yds	Rush	Rec	Int	Fum	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
10/05/25 2025	Chargers	-	vs.	Commanders	-	-	-	-	-	-	-3.0	48.5	-	-
09/28/25 2025	Chargers	-	@	Giants	-	-	-	-	-	-	-6.0	42.5	-	-
09/21/25 2025	Chargers	-	vs.	Broncos	-	-	-	-	-	-	-2.5	45.5	-	-
09/15/25 2025	Chargers	20	@	Raiders	9	323	81	242	3	2	-3.5	46.5	-11	U 29 -17.5
09/05/25 2025	Chargers	27	vs.	Chiefs	21	408	90	318	0	1	+3.0	47.5	-6	O 48 +0.5
Last season · shown for reference, not in the averages
01/11/25 2024	Chargers	12	@	Texans	32	292	50	242	1	1	-3.0	42.5	+20	O 44 +1.5
01/05/25 2024	Chargers	34	@	Raiders	20	483	137	346	1	1	-7.0	42.5	-14	O 54 +11.5
12/28/24 2024	Chargers	40	@	Patriots	7	428	147	281	0	0	-6.0	41.5	-33	O 47 +5.5
12/19/24 2024	Chargers	34	vs.	Broncos	27	401	117	284	0	1	-3.0	41.5	-7	O 61 +19.5
12/15/24 2024	Chargers	17	vs.	Buccaneers	40	231	32	199	1	2	-3.0	46.0	+23	O 57 +11.0
12/08/24 2024	Chargers	17	@	Chiefs	19	307	94	213	0	1	+4.5	43.0	+2	U 36 -7.0
12/01/24 2024	Chargers	17	@	Falcons	13	206	56	150	4	2	-1.0	47.0	-4	U 30 -17.0
11/25/24 2024	Chargers	23	vs.	Ravens	30	301	83	218	0	1	+3.0	51.0	+7	O 53 +2.0

All Games Avg (2 games this season)		23.5	-	-	15.0	366	86	280	1.5	1.5	-0.3	47.0	-8.5 +8.3	U 38.5 -8.5

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Records

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Notable Trends

Notable trends will be listed here starting Week 4.

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Chargers (Home)

The Chargers are 100% (2-0) against the spread

The Chargers are 100% (1-0) against the spread as a fav

The Chargers are 50% (1-1) to the over

The Chargers are 100% (1-0) to the under as a fav

The Chargers are 100% (2-0) (L30 days) against the spread

The Chargers are 100% (1-0) (L30 days) against the spread as a fav

The Chargers are 50% (1-1) (L30 days) to the over

The Chargers are 100% (1-0) (L30 days) to the under as a fav

Broncos (Away)

The Broncos are 0% (0-2) against the spread

The Broncos are 0% (0-1) against the spread away

The Broncos are 50% (1-1) to the over

The Broncos are 100% (1-0) to the over away

The Broncos are 0% (0-2) (L30 days) against the spread

The Broncos are 0% (0-1) (L30 days) against the spread away

The Broncos are 50% (1-1) (L30 days) to the over

The Broncos are 100% (1-0) (L30 days) to the over away

Historical Matchups (Last 3 Seasons, Max 10) Follow global filters

Date	Team	Pts		Opponent	Pts	Yds	Rush	Rec	Int	Fum	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
12/19/24 2024	Chargers	34	vs.	Broncos	27	401	117	284	0	1	-3.0	41.5	-7	O 61 +19.5
10/13/24 2024	Chargers	23	@	Broncos	16	326	110	216	0	1	-3.0	37.0	-7	O 39 +2.0
12/31/23 2023	Chargers	9	@	Broncos	16	325	101	224	0	0	+3.5	40.0	+7	U 25 -15.0
12/10/23 2023	Chargers	7	vs.	Broncos	24	351	76	275	1	2	-3.0	46.0	+17	U 31 -15.0
01/08/23 2022	Chargers	28	@	Broncos	31	488	205	283	0	3	+6.5	39.0	+3	O 59 +20.0
10/17/22 2022	Chargers	19	vs.	Broncos	16 OT	311	73	238	0	0	-3.5	45.5	-3	U 35 -10.5

Chargers as Home (3 games)		20.0	-	-	22.3	354	89	266	0.3	1.0	-3.2	44.3	+2.3 -5.5	U 42.3 -2.0

All Games Avg (6 games)		20.0	-	-	21.7	367	114	253	0.2	1.2	-0.4	41.5	+1.7 -2.1	O 41.7 +0.2

Algorithm	Model Side
DVOA ZScores Normalized DVOA comparision.	Broncos (2x)
Basic Stats 8-feature regression.	Neutral
Luck Regression Looking at things like int, fumbles, etc.	Neutral
ATS Analysis 2-feature logistic regression.	Neutral
Cover Summary	Broncos
OVERALL	Broncos \| No Total Edge

NFL Matchups: Predictions, Odds & Betting Trends

Sun, 9/21, Final: 20 – 23 Denver Broncos @ Los Angeles Chargers window.TMB_PAGE_CONTEXT = { page: 'matchup', sport: "nfl", away_team: "Denver Broncos", home_team: "Los Angeles Chargers", game_date: "2025-09-21" };

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Injury Report DENNo report LACNo report

Notes

Broncos

Situational Factor(s)

Chargers

Situational Factor(s)

Model Side

Model Total

View All Algorithms

Algorithm Breakdown

Filters

Schedules

Broncos Schedule Follow global filters

Chargers Schedule Follow global filters

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Records

Notable Trends

View All Records

Chargers (Home)

Broncos (Away)

Historical Matchups (Last 3 Seasons, Max 10) Follow global filters

Sun, 9/21, Final: 20 – 23
Denver Broncos @ Los Angeles Chargers