WNBA Matchups: Predictions, Odds & Betting Trends

Final: 63 – 75
Indiana Fever @ Golden State Valkyries

Fever: 21-18 (53.8%) | Market Rating: -0.64

Valkyries: 20-18 (52.6%) | Market Rating: -1.02 | Home Court: +1.1 pts

Line: +2.5

Total: 159.0

Open: +1.5

Open: 157.5

Team totals: Fever 81.5 · Valkyries 78.5

Odds Full WNBA odds board

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Games
Conversions

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Injury Report INDNo report GSVNo report

Notes

Fever

Situational Factor(s)

Coming off a win as a dog (letdown)

Double digit, in season revenge

Rest advantage

Baller System(s)

Back road team off win w/ more rest

Back team off more rest and has more rest in upcoming game than opponent

Valkyries

Situational Factor(s)

Rest disadvantage

Baller System(s)

Back team off a good shooting performance (over 55 FG%)

Fade a small fav (3.5 or less) off a win

Play over on team that has had a high assist-to-turnover ratio for multiple games

Baller Index Our Exclusive WNBA Baller Index is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions essentially look for teams that have over- or under-performed, in terms of points scored, relative to what would be expected based on their underlying metrics and who might be in for regression. While it does not factor in injuries, situational spots, or historic matchups into account, it can be a good place to start when thinking about a particular matchup.

Model Side

No clear side

Model Total

No clear side

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Filters

Team Comparison Stats, Records and the sections tied to them follow these filters; each team's Schedule and Historical Matchups follow them when their switch is on.

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Schedules

Fever Schedule Follow global filters

Date	Team	Points		Opponent	Opp Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
09/05/25 2025	Fever	-	vs.	Sky	-	-11.5	161.0	-	-
09/02/25 2025	Fever	-	@	Mercury	-	+7.5	166.5	-	-
08/31/25 2025	Fever	-	@	Valkyries	-	-2.5	159.0	-	-
08/29/25	Fever	76	@	Sparks	75	+2.0	179.5	-1	U 151 -28.5
2025	ORtg: 93.4 DRtg: 92.2 Pace: 81.4			ORtg: 92.2 DRtg: 93.4 Pace: 81.4
08/26/25	Fever	95	vs.	Storm	75	+3.5	168.5	-20	O 170 +1.5
2025	ORtg: 125.1 DRtg: 98.7 Pace: 76.0			ORtg: 98.7 DRtg: 125.1 Pace: 76.0
08/24/25	Fever	84	@	Lynx	97	+12.0	168.0	+13	O 181 +13.0
2025	ORtg: 114.0 DRtg: 131.6 Pace: 73.7			ORtg: 131.6 DRtg: 114.0 Pace: 73.7
08/22/25	Fever	90	vs.	Lynx	95	+8.0	166.0	+5	O 185 +19.0
2025	ORtg: 121.7 DRtg: 128.5 Pace: 73.9			ORtg: 128.5 DRtg: 121.7 Pace: 73.9
08/17/25	Fever	99	@	Sun	93 OT	-6.5	167.5	-6	O 192 +24.5
2025	ORtg: 113.8 DRtg: 106.9 Pace: 78.8			ORtg: 106.9 DRtg: 113.8 Pace: 78.8
08/15/25	Fever	84	vs.	Mystics	88	-8.5	163.0	+4	O 172 +9.0
2025	ORtg: 110.4 DRtg: 115.7 Pace: 76.1			ORtg: 115.7 DRtg: 110.4 Pace: 76.1
08/12/25	Fever	80	vs.	Wings	81	-9.5	170.0	+1	U 161 -9.0
2025	ORtg: 99.5 DRtg: 100.7 Pace: 80.4			ORtg: 100.7 DRtg: 99.5 Pace: 80.4
08/09/25	Fever	92	vs.	Sky	70	-10.0	163.5	-22	U 162 -1.5
2025	ORtg: 129.6 DRtg: 98.6 Pace: 71.0			ORtg: 98.6 DRtg: 129.6 Pace: 71.0
08/07/25	Fever	60	@	Mercury	95	+4.0	172.5	+35	U 155 -17.5
2025	ORtg: 75.2 DRtg: 119.1 Pace: 79.7			ORtg: 119.1 DRtg: 75.2 Pace: 79.7
08/05/25	Fever	91	@	Sparks	100	-2.0	178.0	+9	O 191 +13.0
2025	ORtg: 123.8 DRtg: 136.1 Pace: 73.5			ORtg: 136.1 DRtg: 123.8 Pace: 73.5

Away Games Avg (5 games)		82.0	-	-	92.0	+1.9	173.1	+10.0 -8.1	O 174.0 +0.9
	ORtg: 104.1 DRtg: 117.2 Pace: 77.4			ORtg: 117.2 DRtg: 104.1 Pace: 77.4

All Games Avg (10 games)		85.1	-	-	86.9	-0.7	169.7	+1.8 -2.5	O 172.0 +2.4
	ORtg: 110.7 DRtg: 112.8 Pace: 76.4			ORtg: 112.8 DRtg: 110.7 Pace: 76.4

Valkyries Schedule Follow global filters

Date	Team	Points		Opponent	Opp Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
09/04/25 2025	Valkyries	-	vs.	Wings	-	-11.5	159.5	-	-
09/02/25 2025	Valkyries	-	vs.	Liberty	-	+6.5	156.0	-	-
08/31/25 2025	Valkyries	-	vs.	Fever	-	+2.5	159.0	-	-
08/30/25	Valkyries	99	vs.	Mystics	62	-4.5	148.0	-37	O 161 +13.0
2025	ORtg: 127.1 DRtg: 79.6 Pace: 77.9			ORtg: 79.6 DRtg: 127.1 Pace: 77.9
08/24/25	Valkyries	90	@	Wings	81	-1.0	157.5	-9	O 171 +13.5
2025	ORtg: 128.7 DRtg: 115.9 Pace: 69.9			ORtg: 115.9 DRtg: 128.7 Pace: 69.9
08/22/25	Valkyries	72	@	Mercury	81	+6.0	155.5	+9	U 153 -2.5
2025	ORtg: 98.1 DRtg: 110.4 Pace: 73.4			ORtg: 110.4 DRtg: 98.1 Pace: 73.4
08/19/25	Valkyries	91	vs.	Mercury	98	+6.5	154.5	+7	O 189 +34.5
2025	ORtg: 120.2 DRtg: 129.5 Pace: 75.7			ORtg: 129.5 DRtg: 120.2 Pace: 75.7
08/17/25	Valkyries	63	vs.	Dream	79	+4.5	152.0	+16	U 142 -10.0
2025	ORtg: 90.5 DRtg: 113.5 Pace: 69.6			ORtg: 113.5 DRtg: 90.5 Pace: 69.6
08/15/25	Valkyries	90	@	Sky	59	-7.5	148.0	-31	O 149 +1.0
2025	ORtg: 132.3 DRtg: 86.7 Pace: 68.0			ORtg: 86.7 DRtg: 132.3 Pace: 68.0
08/13/25	Valkyries	88	@	Mystics	83	-2.0	149.0	-5	O 171 +22.0
2025	ORtg: 126.2 DRtg: 119.0 Pace: 69.7			ORtg: 119.0 DRtg: 126.2 Pace: 69.7
08/11/25	Valkyries	74	vs.	Sun	57	-8.5	154.0	-17	U 131 -23.0
2025	ORtg: 110.5 DRtg: 85.1 Pace: 67.0			ORtg: 85.1 DRtg: 110.5 Pace: 67.0
08/09/25	Valkyries	72	vs.	Sparks	59	+4.0	165.5	-13	U 131 -34.5
2025	ORtg: 100.2 DRtg: 82.1 Pace: 71.8			ORtg: 82.1 DRtg: 100.2 Pace: 71.8
08/06/25	Valkyries	72	vs.	Aces	78	+5.5	157.5	+6	U 150 -7.5
2025	ORtg: 99.6 DRtg: 107.9 Pace: 72.3			ORtg: 107.9 DRtg: 99.6 Pace: 72.3

Home Games Avg (6 games)		78.5	-	-	72.2	+1.3	155.3	-6.3 +7.6	U 150.7 -4.6
	ORtg: 108.0 DRtg: 99.6 Pace: 72.4			ORtg: 99.6 DRtg: 108.0 Pace: 72.4

All Games Avg (10 games)		81.1	-	-	73.7	+0.3	154.2	-7.4 +7.7	O 154.8 +0.7
	ORtg: 113.4 DRtg: 103.0 Pace: 71.5			ORtg: 103.0 DRtg: 113.4 Pace: 71.5

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Records

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Notable Trends

The Valkyries are 28.6% (2-5) (L30 days) against the spread as a dog

The Valkyries are 71.4% (5-2) (L30 days) to the under at home

The Valkyries are 71.4% (5-2) (L30 days) to the under as a dog

The Valkyries are 80% (4-1) (L30 days) to the under as a home dog

The Fever are 28.6% (2-5) (L30 days) against the spread as a fav

The Fever are 25% (1-3) (L30 days) against the spread as an away fav

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Valkyries (Home)

The Valkyries are 61.5% (24-15) against the spread

The Valkyries are 68.4% (13-6) against the spread at home

The Valkyries are 57.1% (16-12) against the spread as a dog

The Valkyries are 69.2% (9-4) against the spread as a home dog

The Valkyries are 61.5% (24-15) to the under

The Valkyries are 68.4% (13-6) to the under at home

The Valkyries are 67.9% (19-9) to the under as a dog

The Valkyries are 69.2% (9-4) to the under as a home dog

The Valkyries are 61.5% (8-5) (L30 days) against the spread

The Valkyries are 57.1% (4-3) (L30 days) against the spread at home

The Valkyries are 28.6% (2-5) (L30 days) against the spread as a dog

The Valkyries are 40% (2-3) (L30 days) against the spread as a home dog

The Valkyries are 53.8% (7-6) (L30 days) to the under

The Valkyries are 71.4% (5-2) (L30 days) to the under at home

The Valkyries are 71.4% (5-2) (L30 days) to the under as a dog

The Valkyries are 80% (4-1) (L30 days) to the under as a home dog

Fever (Away)

The Fever are 51.2% (21-20) against the spread

The Fever are 42.9% (9-12) against the spread away

The Fever are 40% (10-15) against the spread as a fav

The Fever are 41.7% (5-7) against the spread as an away fav

The Fever are 51.2% (21-20) to the under

The Fever are 57.1% (12-9) to the under away

The Fever are 56% (14-11) to the under as a fav

The Fever are 58.3% (7-5) to the under as an away fav

The Fever are 46.2% (6-7) (L30 days) against the spread

The Fever are 37.5% (3-5) (L30 days) against the spread away

The Fever are 28.6% (2-5) (L30 days) against the spread as a fav

The Fever are 25% (1-3) (L30 days) against the spread as an away fav

The Fever are 53.8% (7-6) (L30 days) to the under

The Fever are 62.5% (5-3) (L30 days) to the under away

The Fever are 57.1% (4-3) (L30 days) to the under as a fav

The Fever are 50% (2-2) (L30 days) to the over as an away fav

Past Matchups (Last 2 Seasons, Max 10) Follow global filters

Date	Team	Pts		Opponent	Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
07/09/25	Valkyries	80	@	Fever	61	+7.0	165.0	-19	U 141 -24.0
2025	ORtg: 99.5 DRtg: 75.8 Pace: 80.4			ORtg: 75.8 DRtg: 99.5 Pace: 80.4
06/19/25	Valkyries	88	vs.	Fever	77	+10.5	164.0	-11	O 165 +1.0
2025	ORtg: 110.9 DRtg: 97.0 Pace: 79.4			ORtg: 97.0 DRtg: 110.9 Pace: 79.4

Valkyries as Home (1 games)		88.0	-	-	77.0	+10.5	164.0	-11.0 +21.5	O 165.0 +1.0
	ORtg: 110.9 DRtg: 97.0 Pace: 79.4			ORtg: 97.0 DRtg: 110.9 Pace: 79.4

All Games Avg (2 games)		84.0	-	-	69.0	+8.8	164.5	-15.0 +23.8	U 153.0 -11.5
	ORtg: 105.2 DRtg: 86.4 Pace: 79.9			ORtg: 86.4 DRtg: 105.2 Pace: 79.9

Algorithm	Model Side
Schedule Analysis Schedule strength and fatigue factors.	Neutral
Differentials Normalized z-scored differentials.	Neutral
Basic Stat Comp Basic 3-stat regression.	Neutral
Net Ratings + Market Analysis Simple but Effective - 57.3% High-Confidence Win Rate	Neutral
Cover Summary	No Bet
Opponent Defense Opponent and defensive metrics.	Neutral
Norms and Averages Best Totals Model - 60.1% High-Confidence Win Rate	Neutral
Total Summary	No Bet
OVERALL	No Spread Edge \| No Total Edge

WNBA Matchups: Predictions, Odds & Betting Trends

Final: 63 – 75 Indiana Fever @ Golden State Valkyries window.TMB_PAGE_CONTEXT = { page: 'matchup', sport: "wnba", away_team: "Indiana Fever", home_team: "Golden State Valkyries", game_date: null };

Odds Full WNBA odds board

Injury Report INDNo report GSVNo report

Notes

Fever

Situational Factor(s)

Baller System(s)

Valkyries

Situational Factor(s)

Baller System(s)

Model Side

Model Total

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Algorithm Breakdown

Filters

Schedules

Fever Schedule Follow global filters

Valkyries Schedule Follow global filters

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On / Off Court

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Records

Notable Trends

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Valkyries (Home)

Fever (Away)

Past Matchups (Last 2 Seasons, Max 10) Follow global filters

Final: 63 – 75
Indiana Fever @ Golden State Valkyries