WNBA Matchups: Predictions, Odds & Betting Trends

Final: 62 – 99
Washington Mystics @ Golden State Valkyries

Mystics: 16-23 (41.0%) | Market Rating: -2.64

Valkyries: 19-18 (51.4%) | Market Rating: -1.12 | Home Court: +1.0 pts

Line: -4.5

Total: 148.0

Open: -5

Open: 152

Team totals: Mystics 72.5 · Valkyries 76.5

Odds Full WNBA odds board

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Games
Conversions

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Injury Report WASNo report GSVNo report

Notes

Mystics

Situational Factor(s)

Rest disadvantage

In season revenge

Baller System(s)

Rested home team (over .500) vs. road team (under .500) go under

Valkyries

Situational Factor(s)

Rest advantage

Well rested (two or more days of rest)

Baller System(s)

Play over on Home fav who won their last matchup off a road game

Play over on team that has had a high assist-to-turnover ratio for multiple games

Baller Index Our Exclusive WNBA Baller Index is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions essentially look for teams that have over- or under-performed, in terms of points scored, relative to what would be expected based on their underlying metrics and who might be in for regression. While it does not factor in injuries, situational spots, or historic matchups into account, it can be a good place to start when thinking about a particular matchup.

Model Side

Mystics

61.88% probability

Model Total

No clear side

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Filters

Team Comparison Stats, Records and the sections tied to them follow these filters; each team's Schedule and Historical Matchups follow them when their switch is on.

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Schedules

Mystics Schedule Follow global filters

Date	Team	Points		Opponent	Opp Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
09/04/25 2025	Mystics	-	vs.	Mercury	-	+9.5	158.5	-	-
08/31/25 2025	Mystics	-	@	Sparks	-	+9.0	168.5	-	-
08/30/25 2025	Mystics	-	@	Valkyries	-	+4.5	148.0	-	-
08/28/25	Mystics	63	@	Liberty	89	+8.0	159.5	+26	U 152 -7.5
2025	ORtg: 93.1 DRtg: 131.6 Pace: 67.7			ORtg: 131.6 DRtg: 93.1 Pace: 67.7
08/24/25	Mystics	82	vs.	Storm	84	+8.5	157.0	+2	O 166 +9.0
2025	ORtg: 102.1 DRtg: 104.6 Pace: 80.3			ORtg: 104.6 DRtg: 102.1 Pace: 80.3
08/23/25	Mystics	81	vs.	Aces	91	+7.5	160.5	+10	O 172 +11.5
2025	ORtg: 102.9 DRtg: 115.6 Pace: 78.7			ORtg: 115.6 DRtg: 102.9 Pace: 78.7
08/21/25	Mystics	56	@	Sun	67	-3.0	158.0	+11	U 123 -35.0
2025	ORtg: 77.9 DRtg: 93.2 Pace: 71.9			ORtg: 93.2 DRtg: 77.9 Pace: 71.9
08/19/25	Mystics	69	vs.	Sun	80	-6.5	158.5	+11	U 149 -9.5
2025	ORtg: 91.5 DRtg: 106.0 Pace: 75.4			ORtg: 106.0 DRtg: 91.5 Pace: 75.4
08/17/25	Mystics	95	vs.	Sparks	86	+3.0	171.5	-9	O 181 +9.5
2025	ORtg: 130.2 DRtg: 117.8 Pace: 73.0			ORtg: 117.8 DRtg: 130.2 Pace: 73.0
08/15/25	Mystics	88	@	Fever	84	+8.5	163.0	-4	O 172 +9.0
2025	ORtg: 115.7 DRtg: 110.4 Pace: 76.1			ORtg: 110.4 DRtg: 115.7 Pace: 76.1
08/13/25	Mystics	83	vs.	Valkyries	88	+2.0	149.0	+5	O 171 +22.0
2025	ORtg: 119.0 DRtg: 126.2 Pace: 69.7			ORtg: 126.2 DRtg: 119.0 Pace: 69.7
08/10/25	Mystics	91	@	Wings	78	+4.0	163.5	-13	O 169 +5.5
2025	ORtg: 113.9 DRtg: 97.6 Pace: 79.9			ORtg: 97.6 DRtg: 113.9 Pace: 79.9
08/08/25	Mystics	76	@	Lynx	80	+10.5	157.5	+4	U 156 -1.5
2025	ORtg: 102.8 DRtg: 108.2 Pace: 73.9			ORtg: 108.2 DRtg: 102.8 Pace: 73.9

Away Games Avg (5 games)		74.8	-	-	79.6	+5.6	160.3	+4.8 +0.8	U 154.4 -5.9
	ORtg: 100.7 DRtg: 108.2 Pace: 73.9			ORtg: 108.2 DRtg: 100.7 Pace: 73.9

All Games Avg (10 games)		78.4	-	-	82.7	+4.3	159.8	+4.3 -0.1	O 161.1 +1.3
	ORtg: 104.9 DRtg: 111.1 Pace: 74.7			ORtg: 111.1 DRtg: 104.9 Pace: 74.7

Valkyries Schedule Follow global filters

Date	Team	Points		Opponent	Opp Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
09/02/25 2025	Valkyries	-	vs.	Liberty	-	+6.5	156.0	-	-
08/31/25 2025	Valkyries	-	vs.	Fever	-	+2.5	159.0	-	-
08/30/25 2025	Valkyries	-	vs.	Mystics	-	-4.5	148.0	-	-
08/24/25	Valkyries	90	@	Wings	81	-1.0	157.5	-9	O 171 +13.5
2025	ORtg: 128.7 DRtg: 115.9 Pace: 69.9			ORtg: 115.9 DRtg: 128.7 Pace: 69.9
08/22/25	Valkyries	72	@	Mercury	81	+6.0	155.5	+9	U 153 -2.5
2025	ORtg: 98.1 DRtg: 110.4 Pace: 73.4			ORtg: 110.4 DRtg: 98.1 Pace: 73.4
08/19/25	Valkyries	91	vs.	Mercury	98	+6.5	154.5	+7	O 189 +34.5
2025	ORtg: 120.2 DRtg: 129.5 Pace: 75.7			ORtg: 129.5 DRtg: 120.2 Pace: 75.7
08/17/25	Valkyries	63	vs.	Dream	79	+4.5	152.0	+16	U 142 -10.0
2025	ORtg: 90.5 DRtg: 113.5 Pace: 69.6			ORtg: 113.5 DRtg: 90.5 Pace: 69.6
08/15/25	Valkyries	90	@	Sky	59	-7.5	148.0	-31	O 149 +1.0
2025	ORtg: 132.3 DRtg: 86.7 Pace: 68.0			ORtg: 86.7 DRtg: 132.3 Pace: 68.0
08/13/25	Valkyries	88	@	Mystics	83	-2.0	149.0	-5	O 171 +22.0
2025	ORtg: 126.2 DRtg: 119.0 Pace: 69.7			ORtg: 119.0 DRtg: 126.2 Pace: 69.7
08/11/25	Valkyries	74	vs.	Sun	57	-8.5	154.0	-17	U 131 -23.0
2025	ORtg: 110.5 DRtg: 85.1 Pace: 67.0			ORtg: 85.1 DRtg: 110.5 Pace: 67.0
08/09/25	Valkyries	72	vs.	Sparks	59	+4.0	165.5	-13	U 131 -34.5
2025	ORtg: 100.2 DRtg: 82.1 Pace: 71.8			ORtg: 82.1 DRtg: 100.2 Pace: 71.8
08/06/25	Valkyries	72	vs.	Aces	78	+5.5	157.5	+6	U 150 -7.5
2025	ORtg: 99.6 DRtg: 107.9 Pace: 72.3			ORtg: 107.9 DRtg: 99.6 Pace: 72.3
08/03/25	Valkyries	77	@	Aces	101	+9.5	157.0	+24	O 178 +21.0
2025	ORtg: 103.7 DRtg: 136.1 Pace: 74.2			ORtg: 136.1 DRtg: 103.7 Pace: 74.2

Home Games Avg (5 games)		74.4	-	-	74.2	+2.4	156.7	-0.2 +2.6	U 148.6 -8.1
	ORtg: 104.2 DRtg: 103.6 Pace: 71.3			ORtg: 103.6 DRtg: 104.2 Pace: 71.3

All Games Avg (10 games)		78.9	-	-	77.6	+1.7	155.1	-1.3 +3.0	O 156.5 +1.5
	ORtg: 111.0 DRtg: 108.6 Pace: 71.2			ORtg: 108.6 DRtg: 111.0 Pace: 71.2

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On / Off Court

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Records

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Notable Trends

The Valkyries are 72.7% (8-3) against the spread as a fav

The Valkyries are 100% (6-0) (L30 days) against the spread as a fav

The Mystics are 80% (8-2) (L30 days) to the over as a dog

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Valkyries (Home)

The Valkyries are 60.5% (23-15) against the spread

The Valkyries are 66.7% (12-6) against the spread at home

The Valkyries are 72.7% (8-3) against the spread as a fav

The Valkyries are 66.7% (4-2) against the spread as a home fav

The Valkyries are 60.5% (23-15) to the under

The Valkyries are 66.7% (12-6) to the under at home

The Valkyries are 54.5% (6-5) to the over as a fav

The Valkyries are 66.7% (4-2) to the under as a home fav

The Valkyries are 61.5% (8-5) (L30 days) against the spread

The Valkyries are 50% (3-3) (L30 days) against the spread at home

The Valkyries are 100% (6-0) (L30 days) against the spread as a fav

The Valkyries are 100% (2-0) (L30 days) against the spread as a home fav

The Valkyries are 53.8% (7-6) (L30 days) to the under

The Valkyries are 66.7% (4-2) (L30 days) to the under at home

The Valkyries are 66.7% (4-2) (L30 days) to the over as a fav

The Valkyries are 50% (1-1) (L30 days) to the over as a home fav

Mystics (Away)

The Mystics are 45% (18-22) against the spread

The Mystics are 45% (9-11) against the spread away

The Mystics are 53.8% (14-12) against the spread as a dog

The Mystics are 50% (7-7) against the spread as an away dog

The Mystics are 50% (20-20) to the over

The Mystics are 55% (11-9) to the under away

The Mystics are 53.8% (14-12) to the over as a dog

The Mystics are 57.1% (8-6) to the over as an away dog

The Mystics are 35.7% (5-9) (L30 days) against the spread

The Mystics are 37.5% (3-5) (L30 days) against the spread away

The Mystics are 50% (5-5) (L30 days) against the spread as a dog

The Mystics are 50% (3-3) (L30 days) against the spread as an away dog

The Mystics are 57.1% (8-6) (L30 days) to the over

The Mystics are 50% (4-4) (L30 days) to the over away

The Mystics are 80% (8-2) (L30 days) to the over as a dog

The Mystics are 66.7% (4-2) (L30 days) to the over as an away dog

Past Matchups (Last 2 Seasons, Max 10) Follow global filters

Date	Team	Pts		Opponent	Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
08/13/25	Valkyries	88	@	Mystics	83	-2.0	149.0	-5	O 171 +22.0
2025	ORtg: 126.2 DRtg: 119.0 Pace: 69.7			ORtg: 119.0 DRtg: 126.2 Pace: 69.7
07/31/25	Valkyries	68	@	Mystics	67	+4.0	154.5	-1	U 135 -19.5
2025	ORtg: 97.2 DRtg: 95.7 Pace: 70.0			ORtg: 95.7 DRtg: 97.2 Pace: 70.0
05/21/25	Valkyries	76	vs.	Mystics	74	+4.5	162.0	-2	U 150 -12.0
2025	ORtg: 92.2 DRtg: 89.8 Pace: 82.4			ORtg: 89.8 DRtg: 92.2 Pace: 82.4

Valkyries as Home (1 games)		76.0	-	-	74.0	+4.5	162.0	-2.0 +6.5	U 150.0 -12.0
	ORtg: 92.2 DRtg: 89.8 Pace: 82.4			ORtg: 89.8 DRtg: 92.2 Pace: 82.4

All Games Avg (3 games)		77.3	-	-	74.7	+2.2	155.2	-2.7 +4.8	U 152.0 -3.2
	ORtg: 105.2 DRtg: 101.5 Pace: 74.0			ORtg: 101.5 DRtg: 105.2 Pace: 74.0

Algorithm	Model Side
Schedule Analysis Schedule strength and fatigue factors.	Mystics (2x)
Differentials Normalized z-scored differentials.	Neutral
Basic Stat Comp Basic 3-stat regression.	Mystics (2x)
Net Ratings + Market Analysis Simple but Effective - 57.3% High-Confidence Win Rate	Mystics (2x)
Cover Summary	Mystics
Opponent Defense Opponent and defensive metrics.	Neutral
Norms and Averages Best Totals Model - 60.1% High-Confidence Win Rate	Neutral
Total Summary	No Bet
OVERALL	Mystics \| No Total Edge

WNBA Matchups: Predictions, Odds & Betting Trends

Final: 62 – 99 Washington Mystics @ Golden State Valkyries window.TMB_PAGE_CONTEXT = { page: 'matchup', sport: "wnba", away_team: "Washington Mystics", home_team: "Golden State Valkyries", game_date: null };

Odds Full WNBA odds board

Injury Report WASNo report GSVNo report

Notes

Mystics

Situational Factor(s)

Baller System(s)

Valkyries

Situational Factor(s)

Baller System(s)

Model Side

Model Total

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Algorithm Breakdown

Filters

Schedules

Mystics Schedule Follow global filters

Valkyries Schedule Follow global filters

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On / Off Court

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Records

Notable Trends

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Valkyries (Home)

Mystics (Away)

Past Matchups (Last 2 Seasons, Max 10) Follow global filters

Final: 62 – 99
Washington Mystics @ Golden State Valkyries