WNBA Matchups: Predictions, Odds & Betting Trends

Final: 63 – 80
New York Liberty @ Phoenix Mercury

Liberty: 24-15 (61.5%) | Market Rating: +3.84

Mercury: 24-14 (63.2%) | Market Rating: +2.48 | Home Court: +2.1 pts

Line: +1.0

Total: 167.0

Open: -1.5

Open: 164

Team totals: Liberty 82.5 · Mercury 83.5

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Games
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Injury Report NYLNo report PHXNo report

Notes

Liberty

Baller System(s)

Back team w/ more rest and less road games in previous 5 games

Fade a small fav (3.5 or less) off a win

Mercury

Situational Factor(s)

Double digit, in season revenge

Baller System(s)

Back home team in matchup between two elite teams

Fade a small fav (3.5 or less) off a win

Play over on team that has had a high assist-to-turnover ratio for multiple games

Baller Index Our Exclusive WNBA Baller Index is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions essentially look for teams that have over- or under-performed, in terms of points scored, relative to what would be expected based on their underlying metrics and who might be in for regression. While it does not factor in injuries, situational spots, or historic matchups into account, it can be a good place to start when thinking about a particular matchup.

Model Side

No clear side

Model Total

No clear side

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Filters

Team Comparison Stats, Records and the sections tied to them follow these filters; each team's Schedule and Historical Matchups follow them when their switch is on.

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Schedules

Liberty Schedule Follow global filters

Date	Team	Points		Opponent	Opp Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
09/05/25 2025	Liberty	-	@	Storm	-	+2.0	162.5	-	-
09/02/25 2025	Liberty	-	@	Valkyries	-	-6.5	156.0	-	-
08/30/25 2025	Liberty	-	@	Mercury	-	-1.0	167.0	-	-
08/28/25	Liberty	89	vs.	Mystics	63	-8.0	159.5	-26	U 152 -7.5
2025	ORtg: 131.6 DRtg: 93.1 Pace: 67.7			ORtg: 93.1 DRtg: 131.6 Pace: 67.7
08/25/25	Liberty	81	vs.	Sun	79	-14.0	167.5	-2	U 160 -7.5
2025	ORtg: 110.3 DRtg: 107.5 Pace: 73.5			ORtg: 107.5 DRtg: 110.3 Pace: 73.5
08/23/25	Liberty	62	@	Dream	78	+6.0	159.5	+16	U 140 -19.5
2025	ORtg: 90.1 DRtg: 113.4 Pace: 68.8			ORtg: 113.4 DRtg: 90.1 Pace: 68.8
08/21/25	Liberty	85	vs.	Sky	91	-15.0	162.5	+6	O 176 +13.5
2025	ORtg: 110.0 DRtg: 117.7 Pace: 77.3			ORtg: 117.7 DRtg: 110.0 Pace: 77.3
08/19/25	Liberty	85	vs.	Lynx	75	-3.0	166.5	-10	U 160 -6.5
2025	ORtg: 115.1 DRtg: 101.5 Pace: 73.9			ORtg: 101.5 DRtg: 115.1 Pace: 73.9
08/16/25	Liberty	80	@	Lynx	86	+1.5	165.5	+6	O 166 +0.5
2025	ORtg: 101.7 DRtg: 109.3 Pace: 78.7			ORtg: 109.3 DRtg: 101.7 Pace: 78.7
08/13/25	Liberty	77	@	Aces	83	+3.5	172.0	+6	U 160 -12.0
2025	ORtg: 106.7 DRtg: 115.0 Pace: 72.2			ORtg: 115.0 DRtg: 106.7 Pace: 72.2
08/12/25	Liberty	105	@	Sparks	97	-4.0	175.5	-8	O 202 +26.5
2025	ORtg: 133.9 DRtg: 123.7 Pace: 78.4			ORtg: 123.7 DRtg: 133.9 Pace: 78.4
08/10/25	Liberty	71	vs.	Lynx	83	-4.0	168.0	+12	U 154 -14.0
2025	ORtg: 95.4 DRtg: 111.5 Pace: 74.4			ORtg: 111.5 DRtg: 95.4 Pace: 74.4
08/08/25	Liberty	88	@	Wings	77	-11.0	170.5	-11	U 165 -5.5
2025	ORtg: 110.0 DRtg: 96.3 Pace: 80.0			ORtg: 96.3 DRtg: 110.0 Pace: 80.0

Away Games Avg (5 games)		82.4	-	-	84.2	-0.8	168.6	+1.8 -2.6	U 166.6 -2.0
	ORtg: 108.5 DRtg: 111.5 Pace: 75.6			ORtg: 111.5 DRtg: 108.5 Pace: 75.6

All Games Avg (10 games)		82.3	-	-	81.2	-4.8	166.7	-1.1 -3.7	U 163.5 -3.2
	ORtg: 110.5 DRtg: 108.9 Pace: 74.5			ORtg: 108.9 DRtg: 110.5 Pace: 74.5

Mercury Schedule Follow global filters

Date	Team	Points		Opponent	Opp Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
09/04/25 2025	Mercury	-	@	Mystics	-	-9.5	158.5	-	-
09/02/25 2025	Mercury	-	vs.	Fever	-	-7.5	166.5	-	-
08/30/25 2025	Mercury	-	vs.	Liberty	-	+1.0	167.0	-	-
08/28/25	Mercury	83	vs.	Sky	79	-12.0	164.5	-4	U 162 -2.5
2025	ORtg: 111.2 DRtg: 105.9 Pace: 74.6			ORtg: 105.9 DRtg: 111.2 Pace: 74.6
08/26/25	Mercury	92	@	Sparks	84	-3.5	178.0	-8	U 176 -2.0
2025	ORtg: 113.4 DRtg: 103.6 Pace: 81.1			ORtg: 103.6 DRtg: 113.4 Pace: 81.1
08/22/25	Mercury	81	vs.	Valkyries	72	-6.0	155.5	-9	U 153 -2.5
2025	ORtg: 110.4 DRtg: 98.1 Pace: 73.4			ORtg: 98.1 DRtg: 110.4 Pace: 73.4
08/21/25	Mercury	61	@	Aces	83	+1.0	171.0	+22	U 144 -27.0
2025	ORtg: 82.6 DRtg: 112.3 Pace: 73.9			ORtg: 112.3 DRtg: 82.6 Pace: 73.9
08/19/25	Mercury	98	@	Valkyries	91	-6.5	154.5	-7	O 189 +34.5
2025	ORtg: 129.5 DRtg: 120.2 Pace: 75.7			ORtg: 120.2 DRtg: 129.5 Pace: 75.7
08/17/25	Mercury	85	@	Storm	82	+2.0	164.5	-3	O 167 +2.5
2025	ORtg: 99.8 DRtg: 96.3 Pace: 85.1			ORtg: 96.3 DRtg: 99.8 Pace: 85.1
08/15/25	Mercury	83	vs.	Aces	86	-4.5	168.5	+3	O 169 +0.5
2025	ORtg: 109.5 DRtg: 113.4 Pace: 75.8			ORtg: 113.4 DRtg: 109.5 Pace: 75.8
08/10/25	Mercury	66	vs.	Dream	74	-4.0	166.0	+8	U 140 -26.0
2025	ORtg: 90.1 DRtg: 101.0 Pace: 73.2			ORtg: 101.0 DRtg: 90.1 Pace: 73.2
08/07/25	Mercury	95	vs.	Fever	60	-4.0	172.5	-35	U 155 -17.5
2025	ORtg: 119.1 DRtg: 75.2 Pace: 79.7			ORtg: 75.2 DRtg: 119.1 Pace: 79.7
08/05/25	Mercury	82	vs.	Sun	66	-15.0	169.0	-16	U 148 -21.0
2025	ORtg: 102.7 DRtg: 82.7 Pace: 79.9			ORtg: 82.7 DRtg: 102.7 Pace: 79.9

Home Games Avg (6 games)		81.7	-	-	72.8	-7.6	166.0	-8.8 +1.3	U 154.5 -11.5
	ORtg: 107.2 DRtg: 96.1 Pace: 76.1			ORtg: 96.1 DRtg: 107.2 Pace: 76.1

All Games Avg (10 games)		82.6	-	-	77.7	-5.3	166.4	-4.9 -0.4	U 160.3 -6.1
	ORtg: 106.8 DRtg: 100.9 Pace: 77.2			ORtg: 100.9 DRtg: 106.8 Pace: 77.2

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On / Off Court

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Records

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Notable Trends

The Mercury are 80% (4-1) against the spread as a home dog

The Mercury are 71.4% (10-4) to the under as a dog

The Mercury are 80% (4-1) to the under as a home dog

The Mercury are 76.9% (10-3) (L30 days) to the under

The Mercury are 85.7% (6-1) (L30 days) to the under at home

The Liberty are 22.2% (4-14-1) against the spread away

The Liberty are 27.3% (3-8-1) against the spread as an away fav

The Liberty are 23.1% (3-10-1) (L30 days) against the spread

The Liberty are 14.3% (1-6-1) (L30 days) against the spread away

The Liberty are 30% (3-7-1) (L30 days) against the spread as a fav

The Liberty are 25% (1-3-1) (L30 days) against the spread as an away fav

The Liberty are 78.6% (11-3) (L30 days) to the under

The Liberty are 75% (6-2) (L30 days) to the under away

The Liberty are 81.8% (9-2) (L30 days) to the under as a fav

The Liberty are 80% (4-1) (L30 days) to the under as an away fav

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Mercury (Home)

The Mercury are 56.4% (22-17) against the spread

The Mercury are 60% (12-8) against the spread at home

The Mercury are 57.1% (8-6) against the spread as a dog

The Mercury are 80% (4-1) against the spread as a home dog

The Mercury are 56.4% (22-17) to the under

The Mercury are 55% (11-9) to the under at home

The Mercury are 71.4% (10-4) to the under as a dog

The Mercury are 80% (4-1) to the under as a home dog

The Mercury are 61.5% (8-5) (L30 days) against the spread

The Mercury are 57.1% (4-3) (L30 days) against the spread at home

The Mercury are 66.7% (2-1) (L30 days) against the spread as a dog

The Mercury are 100% (1-0) (L30 days) against the spread as a home dog

The Mercury are 76.9% (10-3) (L30 days) to the under

The Mercury are 85.7% (6-1) (L30 days) to the under at home

The Mercury are 66.7% (2-1) (L30 days) to the under as a dog

The Mercury are 100% (1-0) (L30 days) to the under as a home dog

Liberty (Away)

The Liberty are 39.5% (15-23-2) against the spread

The Liberty are 22.2% (4-14-1) against the spread away

The Liberty are 45.2% (14-17-2) against the spread as a fav

The Liberty are 27.3% (3-8-1) against the spread as an away fav

The Liberty are 55% (22-18) to the under

The Liberty are 57.9% (11-8) to the over away

The Liberty are 60.6% (20-13) to the under as a fav

The Liberty are 50% (6-6) to the over as an away fav

The Liberty are 23.1% (3-10-1) (L30 days) against the spread

The Liberty are 14.3% (1-6-1) (L30 days) against the spread away

The Liberty are 30% (3-7-1) (L30 days) against the spread as a fav

The Liberty are 25% (1-3-1) (L30 days) against the spread as an away fav

The Liberty are 78.6% (11-3) (L30 days) to the under

The Liberty are 75% (6-2) (L30 days) to the under away

The Liberty are 81.8% (9-2) (L30 days) to the under as a fav

The Liberty are 80% (4-1) (L30 days) to the under as an away fav

Past Matchups (Last 2 Seasons, Max 10) Follow global filters

Date	Team	Pts		Opponent	Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
07/25/25	Mercury	76	@	Liberty	89	+6.0	171.5	+13	U 165 -6.5
2025	ORtg: 90.7 DRtg: 106.2 Pace: 83.8			ORtg: 106.2 DRtg: 90.7 Pace: 83.8
06/27/25	Mercury	106	vs.	Liberty	91	-1.5	168.5	-15	O 197 +28.5
2025	ORtg: 131.1 DRtg: 112.5 Pace: 80.9			ORtg: 112.5 DRtg: 131.1 Pace: 80.9
06/19/25	Mercury	89	@	Liberty	81	+11.5	163.5	-8	O 170 +6.5
2025	ORtg: 109.5 DRtg: 99.7 Pace: 81.3			ORtg: 99.7 DRtg: 109.5 Pace: 81.3
08/26/24	Mercury	70	vs.	Liberty	84	+6.0	166.0	+14	U 154 -12.0
2024	ORtg: 86.9 DRtg: 104.3 Pace: 80.5			ORtg: 104.3 DRtg: 86.9 Pace: 80.5
06/18/24	Mercury	99	vs.	Liberty	93	+5.5	171.5	-6	O 192 +20.5
2024	ORtg: 116.8 DRtg: 109.7 Pace: 84.8			ORtg: 109.7 DRtg: 116.8 Pace: 84.8
05/29/24	Mercury	78	@	Liberty	81	+14.5	173.0	+3	U 159 -14.0
2024	ORtg: 105.0 DRtg: 109.0 Pace: 74.3			ORtg: 109.0 DRtg: 105.0 Pace: 74.3

Mercury as Home (3 games)		91.7	-	-	89.3	+3.3	168.7	-2.3 +5.7	O 181.0 +12.3
	ORtg: 111.6 DRtg: 108.8 Pace: 82.1			ORtg: 108.8 DRtg: 111.6 Pace: 82.1

All Games Avg (6 games)		86.3	-	-	86.5	+7.0	169.0	+0.2 +6.8	O 172.8 +3.8
	ORtg: 106.7 DRtg: 106.9 Pace: 80.9			ORtg: 106.9 DRtg: 106.7 Pace: 80.9

Algorithm	Model Side
Schedule Analysis Schedule strength and fatigue factors.	Neutral
Differentials Normalized z-scored differentials.	Neutral
Basic Stat Comp Basic 3-stat regression.	Neutral
Net Ratings + Market Analysis Simple but Effective - 57.3% High-Confidence Win Rate	Neutral
Cover Summary	No Bet
Opponent Defense Opponent and defensive metrics.	Neutral
Norms and Averages Best Totals Model - 60.1% High-Confidence Win Rate	Neutral
Total Summary	No Bet
OVERALL	No Spread Edge \| No Total Edge

WNBA Matchups: Predictions, Odds & Betting Trends

Final: 63 – 80 New York Liberty @ Phoenix Mercury window.TMB_PAGE_CONTEXT = { page: 'matchup', sport: "wnba", away_team: "New York Liberty", home_team: "Phoenix Mercury", game_date: null };

Odds Full WNBA odds board

Injury Report NYLNo report PHXNo report

Notes

Liberty

Baller System(s)

Mercury

Situational Factor(s)

Baller System(s)

Model Side

Model Total

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Algorithm Breakdown

Filters

Schedules

Liberty Schedule Follow global filters

Mercury Schedule Follow global filters

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On / Off Court

Next Player Up

Records

Notable Trends

View All Records

Mercury (Home)

Liberty (Away)

Past Matchups (Last 2 Seasons, Max 10) Follow global filters

Final: 63 – 80
New York Liberty @ Phoenix Mercury