WNBA Matchups: Predictions, Odds & Betting Trends

Final: 88 – 77
New York Liberty @ Dallas Wings

Liberty: 19-10 (65.5%) | Market Rating: +4.49

Wings: 8-22 (26.7%) | Market Rating: -2.96 | Home Court: +0.5 pts

Line: +11.0

Total: 170.5

Open: +7

Open: 173.5

Team totals: Liberty 91.5 · Wings 79.5

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Games
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Injury Report NYLNo report DALNo report

Notes

Liberty

Situational Factor(s)

Well rested (two or more days of rest)

Baller System(s)

Away + won previous matchup at home

Wings

Situational Factor(s)

In season revenge

Well rested (two or more days of rest)

Baller Index Our Exclusive WNBA Baller Index is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions essentially look for teams that have over- or under-performed, in terms of points scored, relative to what would be expected based on their underlying metrics and who might be in for regression. While it does not factor in injuries, situational spots, or historic matchups into account, it can be a good place to start when thinking about a particular matchup.

Model Side

No clear side

Model Total

No clear side

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Filters

Team Comparison Stats, Records and the sections tied to them follow these filters; each team's Schedule and Historical Matchups follow them when their switch is on.

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Schedules

Liberty Schedule Follow global filters

Date	Team	Points		Opponent	Opp Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
08/12/25 2025	Liberty	-	@	Sparks	-	-4.0	175.5	-	-
08/10/25 2025	Liberty	-	vs.	Lynx	-	-4.0	168.0	-	-
08/08/25 2025	Liberty	-	@	Wings	-	-11.0	170.5	-	-
08/05/25	Liberty	85	vs.	Wings	76	-11.0	176.0	-9	U 161 -15.0
2025	ORtg: 113.2 DRtg: 101.2 Pace: 75.1			ORtg: 101.2 DRtg: 113.2 Pace: 75.1
08/03/25	Liberty	87	@	Sun	78	-11.5	171.0	-9	U 165 -6.0
2025	ORtg: 105.2 DRtg: 94.3 Pace: 82.7			ORtg: 94.3 DRtg: 105.2 Pace: 82.7
08/01/25	Liberty	62	@	Sun	78	-12.0	172.0	+16	U 140 -32.0
2025	ORtg: 78.5 DRtg: 98.7 Pace: 79.0			ORtg: 98.7 DRtg: 78.5 Pace: 79.0
07/30/25	Liberty	93	@	Lynx	100	+7.5	166.5	+7	O 193 +26.5
2025	ORtg: 116.2 DRtg: 124.9 Pace: 80.1			ORtg: 124.9 DRtg: 116.2 Pace: 80.1
07/28/25	Liberty	82	@	Wings	92	-8.0	173.0	+10	O 174 +1.0
2025	ORtg: 100.8 DRtg: 113.0 Pace: 81.4			ORtg: 113.0 DRtg: 100.8 Pace: 81.4
07/26/25	Liberty	99	vs.	Sparks	101	-10.5	175.0	+2	O 200 +25.0
2025	ORtg: 118.1 DRtg: 120.5 Pace: 83.9			ORtg: 120.5 DRtg: 118.1 Pace: 83.9
07/25/25	Liberty	89	vs.	Mercury	76	-6.0	171.5	-13	U 165 -6.5
2025	ORtg: 106.2 DRtg: 90.7 Pace: 83.8			ORtg: 90.7 DRtg: 106.2 Pace: 83.8
07/22/25	Liberty	98	vs.	Fever	84	-10.5	163.0	-14	O 182 +19.0
2025	ORtg: 110.4 DRtg: 94.6 Pace: 88.8			ORtg: 94.6 DRtg: 110.4 Pace: 88.8
07/16/25	Liberty	98	vs.	Fever	77	-10.0	163.0	-21	O 175 +12.0
2025	ORtg: 125.7 DRtg: 98.7 Pace: 78.0			ORtg: 98.7 DRtg: 125.7 Pace: 78.0
07/13/25	Liberty	79	vs.	Dream	72	-6.0	164.5	-7	U 151 -13.5
2025	ORtg: 99.9 DRtg: 91.0 Pace: 79.1			ORtg: 91.0 DRtg: 99.9 Pace: 79.1

Away Games Avg (4 games)		81.0	-	-	87.0	-6.0	170.6	+6.0 -12.0	U 168.0 -2.6
	ORtg: 100.1 DRtg: 107.7 Pace: 80.8			ORtg: 107.7 DRtg: 100.1 Pace: 80.8

All Games Avg (10 games)		87.2	-	-	83.4	-7.8	169.6	-3.8 -4.0	O 170.6 +1.1
	ORtg: 107.4 DRtg: 102.8 Pace: 81.2			ORtg: 102.8 DRtg: 107.4 Pace: 81.2

Wings Schedule Follow global filters

Date	Team	Points		Opponent	Opp Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
08/12/25 2025	Wings	-	@	Fever	-	+9.5	170.0	-	-
08/10/25 2025	Wings	-	vs.	Mystics	-	-4.0	163.5	-	-
08/08/25 2025	Wings	-	vs.	Liberty	-	+11.0	170.5	-	-
08/05/25	Wings	76	@	Liberty	85	+11.0	176.0	+9	U 161 -15.0
2025	ORtg: 101.2 DRtg: 113.2 Pace: 75.1			ORtg: 113.2 DRtg: 101.2 Pace: 75.1
08/01/25	Wings	78	vs.	Fever	88	+4.5	176.0	+10	U 166 -10.0
2025	ORtg: 94.3 DRtg: 106.4 Pace: 82.7			ORtg: 106.4 DRtg: 94.3 Pace: 82.7
07/30/25	Wings	85	vs.	Dream	88	+3.5	167.0	+3	O 173 +6.0
2025	ORtg: 116.6 DRtg: 120.7 Pace: 72.9			ORtg: 120.7 DRtg: 116.6 Pace: 72.9
07/28/25	Wings	92	vs.	Liberty	82	+8.0	173.0	-10	O 174 +1.0
2025	ORtg: 113.0 DRtg: 100.8 Pace: 81.4			ORtg: 100.8 DRtg: 113.0 Pace: 81.4
07/27/25	Wings	80	vs.	Aces	106	+8.0	167.5	+26	O 186 +18.5
2025	ORtg: 99.5 DRtg: 131.8 Pace: 80.4			ORtg: 131.8 DRtg: 99.5 Pace: 80.4
07/25/25	Wings	76	@	Valkyries	86	+4.0	162.5	+10	U 162 -0.5
2025	ORtg: 97.7 DRtg: 110.6 Pace: 77.8			ORtg: 110.6 DRtg: 97.7 Pace: 77.8
07/22/25	Wings	87	@	Storm	63	+9.0	164.5	-24	U 150 -14.5
2025	ORtg: 105.6 DRtg: 76.4 Pace: 82.4			ORtg: 76.4 DRtg: 105.6 Pace: 82.4
07/16/25	Wings	86	vs.	Aces	90	+6.5	169.5	+4	O 176 +6.5
2025	ORtg: 99.3 DRtg: 103.9 Pace: 86.6			ORtg: 103.9 DRtg: 99.3 Pace: 86.6
07/13/25	Wings	83	@	Fever	102	+10.0	174.5	+19	O 185 +10.5
2025	ORtg: 103.1 DRtg: 126.7 Pace: 80.5			ORtg: 126.7 DRtg: 103.1 Pace: 80.5
07/09/25	Wings	76	@	Sky	87	0.0	166.5	+11	U 163 -3.5
2025	ORtg: 100.9 DRtg: 115.5 Pace: 75.3			ORtg: 115.5 DRtg: 100.9 Pace: 75.3

Home Games Avg (5 games)		84.2	-	-	90.8	+6.1	170.6	+6.6 -0.5	O 175.0 +4.4
	ORtg: 104.5 DRtg: 112.7 Pace: 80.8			ORtg: 112.7 DRtg: 104.5 Pace: 80.8

All Games Avg (10 games)		81.9	-	-	87.7	+6.5	169.7	+5.8 +0.7	U 169.6 -0.1
	ORtg: 103.1 DRtg: 110.6 Pace: 79.5			ORtg: 110.6 DRtg: 103.1 Pace: 79.5

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On / Off Court

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Records

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Notable Trends

The Liberty are 23.1% (3-10-1) against the spread away

The Liberty are 22.2% (2-7-1) against the spread as an away fav

The Liberty are 25% (1-3-1) (L30 days) against the spread away

The Liberty are 75% (3-1) (L30 days) to the under as an away fav

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Wings (Home)

The Wings are 46.7% (14-16-1) against the spread

The Wings are 46.7% (7-8-1) against the spread at home

The Wings are 50% (12-12-1) against the spread as a dog

The Wings are 46.2% (6-7-1) against the spread as a home dog

The Wings are 51.6% (16-15) to the over

The Wings are 50% (8-8) to the over at home

The Wings are 52% (13-12) to the under as a dog

The Wings are 50% (7-7) to the over as a home dog

The Wings are 50% (5-5-1) (L30 days) against the spread

The Wings are 60% (3-2-1) (L30 days) against the spread at home

The Wings are 55.6% (5-4-1) (L30 days) against the spread as a dog

The Wings are 60% (3-2-1) (L30 days) against the spread as a home dog

The Wings are 54.5% (6-5) (L30 days) to the under

The Wings are 66.7% (4-2) (L30 days) to the over at home

The Wings are 50% (5-5) (L30 days) to the over as a dog

The Wings are 66.7% (4-2) (L30 days) to the over as a home dog

Liberty (Away)

The Liberty are 42.9% (12-16-2) against the spread

The Liberty are 23.1% (3-10-1) against the spread away

The Liberty are 45.8% (11-13-2) against the spread as a fav

The Liberty are 22.2% (2-7-1) against the spread as an away fav

The Liberty are 50% (15-15) to the over

The Liberty are 64.3% (9-5) to the over away

The Liberty are 57.7% (15-11) to the under as a fav

The Liberty are 50% (5-5) to the over as an away fav

The Liberty are 50% (5-5-1) (L30 days) against the spread

The Liberty are 25% (1-3-1) (L30 days) against the spread away

The Liberty are 44.4% (4-5-1) (L30 days) against the spread as a fav

The Liberty are 0% (0-3-1) (L30 days) against the spread as an away fav

The Liberty are 54.5% (6-5) (L30 days) to the under

The Liberty are 60% (3-2) (L30 days) to the under away

The Liberty are 60% (6-4) (L30 days) to the under as a fav

The Liberty are 75% (3-1) (L30 days) to the under as an away fav

Past Matchups (Last 2 Seasons, Max 10) Follow global filters

Date	Team	Pts		Opponent	Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
08/05/25	Wings	76	@	Liberty	85	+11.0	176.0	+9	U 161 -15.0
2025	ORtg: 101.2 DRtg: 113.2 Pace: 75.1			ORtg: 113.2 DRtg: 101.2 Pace: 75.1
07/28/25	Wings	92	vs.	Liberty	82	+8.0	173.0	-10	O 174 +1.0
2025	ORtg: 113.0 DRtg: 100.8 Pace: 81.4			ORtg: 100.8 DRtg: 113.0 Pace: 81.4
09/12/24	Wings	67	vs.	Liberty	99	+10.5	177.5	+32	U 166 -11.5
2024	ORtg: 82.9 DRtg: 122.5 Pace: 80.8			ORtg: 122.5 DRtg: 82.9 Pace: 80.8
09/10/24	Wings	91	vs.	Liberty	105	+10.5	176.0	+14	O 196 +20.0
2024	ORtg: 110.8 DRtg: 127.8 Pace: 82.2			ORtg: 127.8 DRtg: 110.8 Pace: 82.2
08/22/24	Wings	71	@	Liberty	79	+11.5	174.0	+8	U 150 -24.0
2024	ORtg: 91.0 DRtg: 101.3 Pace: 78.0			ORtg: 101.3 DRtg: 91.0 Pace: 78.0
08/20/24	Wings	74	@	Liberty	94	+11.0	174.0	+20	U 168 -6.0
2024	ORtg: 90.1 DRtg: 114.5 Pace: 82.1			ORtg: 114.5 DRtg: 90.1 Pace: 82.1

Wings as Home (3 games)		83.3	-	-	95.3	+9.7	175.5	+12.0 -2.3	O 178.7 +3.2
	ORtg: 102.2 DRtg: 117.0 Pace: 81.4			ORtg: 117.0 DRtg: 102.2 Pace: 81.4

All Games Avg (6 games)		78.5	-	-	90.7	+10.4	175.1	+12.2 -1.8	U 169.2 -5.9
	ORtg: 98.2 DRtg: 113.3 Pace: 79.9			ORtg: 113.3 DRtg: 98.2 Pace: 79.9

Algorithm	Model Side
Schedule Analysis Schedule strength and fatigue factors.	Neutral
Differentials Normalized z-scored differentials.	Neutral
Basic Stat Comp Basic 3-stat regression.	Neutral
Net Ratings + Market Analysis Simple but Effective - 57.3% High-Confidence Win Rate	Neutral
Cover Summary	No Bet
Opponent Defense Opponent and defensive metrics.	Neutral
Norms and Averages Best Totals Model - 60.1% High-Confidence Win Rate	Neutral
Total Summary	No Bet
OVERALL	No Spread Edge \| No Total Edge

WNBA Matchups: Predictions, Odds & Betting Trends

Final: 88 – 77 New York Liberty @ Dallas Wings window.TMB_PAGE_CONTEXT = { page: 'matchup', sport: "wnba", away_team: "New York Liberty", home_team: "Dallas Wings", game_date: null };

Odds Full WNBA odds board

Injury Report NYLNo report DALNo report

Notes

Liberty

Situational Factor(s)

Baller System(s)

Wings

Situational Factor(s)

Model Side

Model Total

View All Algorithms

Algorithm Breakdown

Filters

Schedules

Liberty Schedule Follow global filters

Wings Schedule Follow global filters

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On / Off Court

Next Player Up

Records

Notable Trends

View All Records

Wings (Home)

Liberty (Away)

Past Matchups (Last 2 Seasons, Max 10) Follow global filters

Final: 88 – 77
New York Liberty @ Dallas Wings