WNBA Matchups: Predictions, Odds & Betting Trends

Final: 64 – 78
Washington Mystics @ Chicago Sky

Mystics: 13-15 (46.4%) | Market Rating: -1.63

Sky: 7-21 (25.0%) | Market Rating: -5.99 | Home Court: 0.0 pts

Line: +5.5

Total: 156.0

Open: +8

Open: 157.5

Team totals: Mystics 81.5 · Sky 76.5

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Games
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Injury Report WASNo report CHINo report

Notes

Mystics

Baller System(s)

Back slow-paced team after going over last game w/ fast pace

Overs system - rematch within 7 days - total has increased

Play over on slow-paced team after going over last game w/ fast pace

Sky

Situational Factor(s)

Double digit, in season revenge

Baller System(s)

Fade team off 2 game losing streak when previous game was at home

Overs system - rematch within 7 days - total has increased

Play under when home team seeks same-season double revenge

Baller Index Our Exclusive WNBA Baller Index is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions essentially look for teams that have over- or under-performed, in terms of points scored, relative to what would be expected based on their underlying metrics and who might be in for regression. While it does not factor in injuries, situational spots, or historic matchups into account, it can be a good place to start when thinking about a particular matchup.

Model Side

Mystics

61.88% probability

Model Total

No clear side

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Filters

Team Comparison Stats, Records and the sections tied to them follow these filters; each team's Schedule and Historical Matchups follow them when their switch is on.

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Schedules

Mystics Schedule Follow global filters

Date	Team	Points		Opponent	Opp Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
08/10/25 2025	Mystics	-	@	Wings	-	+4.0	163.5	-	-
08/08/25 2025	Mystics	-	@	Lynx	-	+10.5	157.5	-	-
08/05/25 2025	Mystics	-	@	Sky	-	-5.5	156.0	-	-
08/03/25	Mystics	83	@	Dream	99	+5.5	156.5	+16	O 182 +25.5
2025	ORtg: 99.3 DRtg: 118.5 Pace: 83.5			ORtg: 118.5 DRtg: 99.3 Pace: 83.5
07/31/25	Mystics	67	vs.	Valkyries	68	-4.0	154.5	+1	U 135 -19.5
2025	ORtg: 95.7 DRtg: 97.2 Pace: 70.0			ORtg: 97.2 DRtg: 95.7 Pace: 70.0
07/29/25	Mystics	103	vs.	Sky	86	-7.5	156.5	-17	O 189 +32.5
2025	ORtg: 129.7 DRtg: 108.3 Pace: 79.4			ORtg: 108.3 DRtg: 129.7 Pace: 79.4
07/27/25	Mystics	72	vs.	Mercury	88	+8.0	162.5	+16	U 160 -2.5
2025	ORtg: 91.3 DRtg: 111.6 Pace: 78.8			ORtg: 111.6 DRtg: 91.3 Pace: 78.8
07/26/25	Mystics	69	vs.	Storm	58	+4.0	155.5	-11	U 127 -28.5
2025	ORtg: 89.8 DRtg: 75.5 Pace: 76.8			ORtg: 75.5 DRtg: 89.8 Pace: 76.8
07/22/25	Mystics	86	vs.	Sparks	93	-2.5	167.5	+7	O 179 +11.5
2025	ORtg: 111.2 DRtg: 120.3 Pace: 77.3			ORtg: 120.3 DRtg: 111.2 Pace: 77.3
07/15/25	Mystics	80	@	Sparks	99	+1.0	165.5	+19	O 179 +13.5
2025	ORtg: 95.9 DRtg: 118.6 Pace: 83.5			ORtg: 118.6 DRtg: 95.9 Pace: 83.5
07/13/25	Mystics	74	@	Storm	69	+7.0	156.5	-5	U 143 -13.5
2025	ORtg: 96.7 DRtg: 90.2 Pace: 76.5			ORtg: 90.2 DRtg: 96.7 Pace: 76.5
07/10/25	Mystics	70	vs.	Aces	68	-3.5	157.5	-2	U 138 -19.5
2025	ORtg: 89.9 DRtg: 87.3 Pace: 77.9			ORtg: 87.3 DRtg: 89.9 Pace: 77.9
07/08/25	Mystics	81	vs.	Sky	79	-7.0	159.5	-2	O 160 +0.5
2025	ORtg: 100.0 DRtg: 97.5 Pace: 81.0			ORtg: 97.5 DRtg: 100.0 Pace: 81.0

Away Games Avg (3 games)		79.0	-	-	89.0	+4.5	159.5	+10.0 -5.5	O 168.0 +8.5
	ORtg: 97.3 DRtg: 109.1 Pace: 81.2			ORtg: 109.1 DRtg: 97.3 Pace: 81.2

All Games Avg (10 games)		78.5	-	-	80.7	+0.1	159.2	+2.2 -2.1	P 159.2 0.0
	ORtg: 100.0 DRtg: 102.5 Pace: 78.5			ORtg: 102.5 DRtg: 100.0 Pace: 78.5

Sky Schedule Follow global filters

Date	Team	Points		Opponent	Opp Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
08/09/25 2025	Sky	-	@	Fever	-	+10.0	163.5	-	-
08/07/25 2025	Sky	-	vs.	Dream	-	+11.0	161.0	-	-
08/05/25 2025	Sky	-	vs.	Mystics	-	+5.5	156.0	-	-
08/03/25	Sky	67	vs.	Mercury	83	+12.5	164.5	+16	U 150 -14.5
2025	ORtg: 90.4 DRtg: 112.0 Pace: 74.1			ORtg: 112.0 DRtg: 90.4 Pace: 74.1
08/01/25	Sky	66	vs.	Valkyries	73	+4.5	153.0	+7	U 139 -14.0
2025	ORtg: 92.5 DRtg: 102.3 Pace: 71.4			ORtg: 102.3 DRtg: 92.5 Pace: 71.4
07/29/25	Sky	86	@	Mystics	103	+7.5	156.5	+17	O 189 +32.5
2025	ORtg: 108.3 DRtg: 129.7 Pace: 79.4			ORtg: 129.7 DRtg: 108.3 Pace: 79.4
07/27/25	Sky	78	vs.	Fever	93	+11.5	156.0	+15	O 171 +15.0
2025	ORtg: 97.6 DRtg: 116.4 Pace: 79.9			ORtg: 116.4 DRtg: 97.6 Pace: 79.9
07/24/25	Sky	57	vs.	Storm	95	+11.0	154.0	+38	U 152 -2.0
2025	ORtg: 73.9 DRtg: 123.2 Pace: 77.1			ORtg: 123.2 DRtg: 73.9 Pace: 77.1
07/22/25	Sky	68	@	Lynx	91	+15.5	159.0	+23	P 159 0.0
2025	ORtg: 91.1 DRtg: 121.9 Pace: 74.7			ORtg: 121.9 DRtg: 91.1 Pace: 74.7
07/16/25	Sky	49	vs.	Dream	86	+10.0	158.5	+37	U 135 -23.5
2025	ORtg: 63.8 DRtg: 111.9 Pace: 76.8			ORtg: 111.9 DRtg: 63.8 Pace: 76.8
07/14/25	Sky	78	vs.	Lynx	91	+11.0	160.0	+13	O 169 +9.0
2025	ORtg: 101.1 DRtg: 117.9 Pace: 77.2			ORtg: 117.9 DRtg: 101.1 Pace: 77.2
07/12/25	Sky	87	vs.	Lynx	81	+11.5	161.0	-6	O 168 +7.0
2025	ORtg: 106.1 DRtg: 98.8 Pace: 82.0			ORtg: 98.8 DRtg: 106.1 Pace: 82.0
07/09/25	Sky	87	vs.	Wings	76	0.0	166.5	-11	U 163 -3.5
2025	ORtg: 115.5 DRtg: 100.9 Pace: 75.3			ORtg: 100.9 DRtg: 115.5 Pace: 75.3

Home Games Avg (8 games)		71.1	-	-	84.8	+9.0	159.2	+13.6 -4.6	U 155.9 -3.3
	ORtg: 92.6 DRtg: 110.4 Pace: 76.7			ORtg: 110.4 DRtg: 92.6 Pace: 76.7

All Games Avg (10 games)		72.3	-	-	87.2	+9.5	158.9	+14.9 -5.4	O 159.5 +0.6
	ORtg: 94.0 DRtg: 113.5 Pace: 76.8			ORtg: 113.5 DRtg: 94.0 Pace: 76.8

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Records

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Notable Trends

The Sky are 28.6% (4-10) against the spread as a home dog

The Sky are 25% (2-6) (L30 days) against the spread as a home dog

The Mystics are 80% (4-1) to the under as an away fav

The Mystics are 27.3% (3-8) (L30 days) against the spread

The Mystics are 25% (1-3) (L30 days) against the spread away

The Mystics are 16.7% (1-5) (L30 days) against the spread as a fav

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Sky (Home)

The Sky are 44.8% (13-16) against the spread

The Sky are 33.3% (5-10) against the spread at home

The Sky are 42.9% (12-16) against the spread as a dog

The Sky are 28.6% (4-10) against the spread as a home dog

The Sky are 53.6% (15-13-1) to the over

The Sky are 53.3% (8-7) to the under at home

The Sky are 55.6% (15-12-1) to the over as a dog

The Sky are 50% (7-7) to the over as a home dog

The Sky are 38.5% (5-8) (L30 days) against the spread

The Sky are 33.3% (3-6) (L30 days) against the spread at home

The Sky are 33.3% (4-8) (L30 days) against the spread as a dog

The Sky are 25% (2-6) (L30 days) against the spread as a home dog

The Sky are 58.3% (7-5-1) (L30 days) to the under

The Sky are 66.7% (6-3) (L30 days) to the under at home

The Sky are 54.5% (6-5-1) (L30 days) to the under as a dog

The Sky are 62.5% (5-3) (L30 days) to the under as a home dog

Mystics (Away)

The Mystics are 44.8% (13-16) against the spread

The Mystics are 42.9% (6-8) against the spread away

The Mystics are 33.3% (4-8) against the spread as a fav

The Mystics are 40% (2-3) against the spread as an away fav

The Mystics are 55.2% (16-13) to the under

The Mystics are 57.1% (8-6) to the under away

The Mystics are 50% (6-6) to the over as a fav

The Mystics are 80% (4-1) to the under as an away fav

The Mystics are 27.3% (3-8) (L30 days) against the spread

The Mystics are 25% (1-3) (L30 days) against the spread away

The Mystics are 16.7% (1-5) (L30 days) against the spread as a fav

The Mystics are 0% (0-1) (L30 days) against the spread as an away fav

The Mystics are 54.5% (6-5) (L30 days) to the under

The Mystics are 50% (2-2) (L30 days) to the over away

The Mystics are 50% (3-3) (L30 days) to the over as a fav

The Mystics are 100% (1-0) (L30 days) to the under as an away fav

Past Matchups (Last 2 Seasons, Max 10) Follow global filters

Date	Team	Pts		Opponent	Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
07/29/25	Sky	86	@	Mystics	103	+7.5	156.5	+17	O 189 +32.5
2025	ORtg: 108.3 DRtg: 129.7 Pace: 79.4			ORtg: 129.7 DRtg: 108.3 Pace: 79.4
07/08/25	Sky	79	@	Mystics	81	+7.0	159.5	+2	O 160 +0.5
2025	ORtg: 97.5 DRtg: 100.0 Pace: 81.0			ORtg: 100.0 DRtg: 97.5 Pace: 81.0
06/17/25	Sky	72	vs.	Mystics	79	+4.5	155.5	+7	U 151 -4.5
2025	ORtg: 93.8 DRtg: 102.9 Pace: 76.7			ORtg: 102.9 DRtg: 93.8 Pace: 76.7
09/11/24	Sky	58	vs.	Mystics	89	+1.5	162.5	+31	U 147 -15.5
2024	ORtg: 77.0 DRtg: 118.1 Pace: 75.4			ORtg: 118.1 DRtg: 77.0 Pace: 75.4
08/28/24	Sky	70	vs.	Mystics	74	+2.0	157.0	+4	U 144 -13.0
2024	ORtg: 94.6 DRtg: 100.0 Pace: 74.0			ORtg: 100.0 DRtg: 94.6 Pace: 74.0
06/14/24	Sky	81	@	Mystics	83	-2.5	158.5	+2	O 164 +5.5
2024	ORtg: 99.0 DRtg: 101.4 Pace: 81.8			ORtg: 101.4 DRtg: 99.0 Pace: 81.8
06/06/24	Sky	79	@	Mystics	71	-3.0	156.0	-8	U 150 -6.0
2024	ORtg: 91.6 DRtg: 82.4 Pace: 86.2			ORtg: 82.4 DRtg: 91.6 Pace: 86.2

Sky as Home (3 games)		66.7	-	-	80.7	+2.7	158.3	+14.0 -11.3	U 147.3 -11.0
	ORtg: 88.5 DRtg: 107.0 Pace: 75.4			ORtg: 107.0 DRtg: 88.5 Pace: 75.4

All Games Avg (7 games)		75.0	-	-	82.9	+2.4	157.9	+7.9 -5.4	U 157.9 -0.1
	ORtg: 94.5 DRtg: 104.9 Pace: 79.2			ORtg: 104.9 DRtg: 94.5 Pace: 79.2

Algorithm	Model Side
Schedule Analysis Schedule strength and fatigue factors.	Neutral
Differentials Normalized z-scored differentials.	Mystics (2x)
Basic Stat Comp Basic 3-stat regression.	Mystics (2x)
Net Ratings + Market Analysis Simple but Effective - 57.3% High-Confidence Win Rate	Mystics (2x)
Cover Summary	Mystics
Opponent Defense Opponent and defensive metrics.	Neutral
Norms and Averages Best Totals Model - 60.1% High-Confidence Win Rate	Neutral
Total Summary	No Bet
OVERALL	Mystics \| No Total Edge

WNBA Matchups: Predictions, Odds & Betting Trends

Final: 64 – 78 Washington Mystics @ Chicago Sky window.TMB_PAGE_CONTEXT = { page: 'matchup', sport: "wnba", away_team: "Washington Mystics", home_team: "Chicago Sky", game_date: null };

Odds Full WNBA odds board

Injury Report WASNo report CHINo report

Notes

Mystics

Baller System(s)

Sky

Situational Factor(s)

Baller System(s)

Model Side

Model Total

View All Algorithms

Algorithm Breakdown

Filters

Schedules

Mystics Schedule Follow global filters

Sky Schedule Follow global filters

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On / Off Court

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Records

Notable Trends

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Sky (Home)

Mystics (Away)

Past Matchups (Last 2 Seasons, Max 10) Follow global filters

Final: 64 – 78
Washington Mystics @ Chicago Sky