WNBA Matchups: Predictions, Odds & Betting Trends

Final: 88 – 78
Indiana Fever @ Dallas Wings

Fever: 15-12 (55.6%) | Market Rating: +0.85

Wings: 8-20 (28.6%) | Market Rating: -3.08 | Home Court: +0.6 pts

Line: +4.5

Total: 176.0

Open: +4.5

Open: 167.5

Team totals: Fever 89.5 · Wings 85.5

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Games
Conversions

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Injury Report INDNo report DALNo report

Notes

Fever

Situational Factor(s)

Coming off a win as a dog (letdown)

Wings

Situational Factor(s)

Double digit, in season revenge

Baller System(s)

Fade a small fav (3.5 or less) off a win

Play over on team that has had a high assist-to-turnover ratio for multiple games

Play under when home team seeks same-season double revenge

Baller Index Our Exclusive WNBA Baller Index is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions essentially look for teams that have over- or under-performed, in terms of points scored, relative to what would be expected based on their underlying metrics and who might be in for regression. While it does not factor in injuries, situational spots, or historic matchups into account, it can be a good place to start when thinking about a particular matchup.

Model Side

No clear side

Model Total

No clear side

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Filters

Team Comparison Stats, Records and the sections tied to them follow these filters; each team's Schedule and Historical Matchups follow them when their switch is on.

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Schedules

Fever Schedule Follow global filters

Date	Team	Points		Opponent	Opp Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
08/05/25 2025	Fever	-	@	Sparks	-	-2.0	178.0	-	-
08/03/25 2025	Fever	-	@	Storm	-	+3.0	164.5	-	-
08/01/25 2025	Fever	-	@	Wings	-	-4.5	176.0	-	-
07/30/25	Fever	107	vs.	Mercury	101	+3.5	167.0	-6	O 208 +41.0
2025	ORtg: 118.8 DRtg: 112.1 Pace: 90.1			ORtg: 112.1 DRtg: 118.8 Pace: 90.1
07/27/25	Fever	93	@	Sky	78	-11.5	156.0	-15	O 171 +15.0
2025	ORtg: 116.4 DRtg: 97.6 Pace: 79.9			ORtg: 97.6 DRtg: 116.4 Pace: 79.9
07/24/25	Fever	80	vs.	Aces	70	+1.5	165.5	-10	U 150 -15.5
2025	ORtg: 103.5 DRtg: 90.6 Pace: 77.3			ORtg: 90.6 DRtg: 103.5 Pace: 77.3
07/22/25	Fever	84	@	Liberty	98	+10.5	163.0	+14	O 182 +19.0
2025	ORtg: 94.6 DRtg: 110.4 Pace: 88.8			ORtg: 110.4 DRtg: 94.6 Pace: 88.8
07/16/25	Fever	77	@	Liberty	98	+10.0	163.0	+21	O 175 +12.0
2025	ORtg: 98.7 DRtg: 125.7 Pace: 78.0			ORtg: 125.7 DRtg: 98.7 Pace: 78.0
07/15/25	Fever	85	@	Sun	77	-15.0	166.5	-8	U 162 -4.5
2025	ORtg: 106.5 DRtg: 96.4 Pace: 79.8			ORtg: 96.4 DRtg: 106.5 Pace: 79.8
07/13/25	Fever	102	vs.	Wings	83	-10.0	174.5	-19	O 185 +10.5
2025	ORtg: 126.7 DRtg: 103.1 Pace: 80.5			ORtg: 103.1 DRtg: 126.7 Pace: 80.5
07/11/25	Fever	99	vs.	Dream	82	-1.5	167.5	-17	O 181 +13.5
2025	ORtg: 126.7 DRtg: 105.0 Pace: 78.1			ORtg: 105.0 DRtg: 126.7 Pace: 78.1
07/09/25	Fever	61	vs.	Valkyries	80	-7.0	165.0	+19	U 141 -24.0
2025	ORtg: 75.8 DRtg: 99.5 Pace: 80.4			ORtg: 99.5 DRtg: 75.8 Pace: 80.4
07/05/25	Fever	87	vs.	Sparks	89	-5.0	163.5	+2	O 176 +12.5
2025	ORtg: 116.6 DRtg: 119.3 Pace: 74.6			ORtg: 119.3 DRtg: 116.6 Pace: 74.6

Away Games Avg (4 games)		84.8	-	-	87.8	-1.5	162.1	+3.0 -4.5	O 172.5 +10.4
	ORtg: 104.1 DRtg: 107.5 Pace: 81.6			ORtg: 107.5 DRtg: 104.1 Pace: 81.6

All Games Avg (10 games)		87.5	-	-	85.6	-2.5	165.2	-1.9 -0.6	O 173.1 +8.0
	ORtg: 108.4 DRtg: 106.0 Pace: 80.8			ORtg: 106.0 DRtg: 108.4 Pace: 80.8

Wings Schedule Follow global filters

Date	Team	Points		Opponent	Opp Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
08/08/25 2025	Wings	-	vs.	Liberty	-	+11.0	170.5	-	-
08/05/25 2025	Wings	-	@	Liberty	-	+11.0	176.0	-	-
08/01/25 2025	Wings	-	vs.	Fever	-	+4.5	176.0	-	-
07/30/25	Wings	85	vs.	Dream	88	+3.5	167.0	+3	O 173 +6.0
2025	ORtg: 116.6 DRtg: 120.7 Pace: 72.9			ORtg: 120.7 DRtg: 116.6 Pace: 72.9
07/28/25	Wings	92	vs.	Liberty	82	+8.0	173.0	-10	O 174 +1.0
2025	ORtg: 113.0 DRtg: 100.8 Pace: 81.4			ORtg: 100.8 DRtg: 113.0 Pace: 81.4
07/27/25	Wings	80	vs.	Aces	106	+8.0	167.5	+26	O 186 +18.5
2025	ORtg: 99.5 DRtg: 131.8 Pace: 80.4			ORtg: 131.8 DRtg: 99.5 Pace: 80.4
07/25/25	Wings	76	@	Valkyries	86	+4.0	162.5	+10	U 162 -0.5
2025	ORtg: 97.7 DRtg: 110.6 Pace: 77.8			ORtg: 110.6 DRtg: 97.7 Pace: 77.8
07/22/25	Wings	87	@	Storm	63	+9.0	164.5	-24	U 150 -14.5
2025	ORtg: 105.6 DRtg: 76.4 Pace: 82.4			ORtg: 76.4 DRtg: 105.6 Pace: 82.4
07/16/25	Wings	86	vs.	Aces	90	+6.5	169.5	+4	O 176 +6.5
2025	ORtg: 99.3 DRtg: 103.9 Pace: 86.6			ORtg: 103.9 DRtg: 99.3 Pace: 86.6
07/13/25	Wings	83	@	Fever	102	+10.0	174.5	+19	O 185 +10.5
2025	ORtg: 103.1 DRtg: 126.7 Pace: 80.5			ORtg: 126.7 DRtg: 103.1 Pace: 80.5
07/09/25	Wings	76	@	Sky	87	0.0	166.5	+11	U 163 -3.5
2025	ORtg: 100.9 DRtg: 115.5 Pace: 75.3			ORtg: 115.5 DRtg: 100.9 Pace: 75.3
07/07/25	Wings	72	@	Mercury	102	+6.0	163.5	+30	O 174 +10.5
2025	ORtg: 86.9 DRtg: 123.1 Pace: 82.9			ORtg: 123.1 DRtg: 86.9 Pace: 82.9
07/03/25	Wings	98	vs.	Mercury	89	+11.5	165.0	-9	O 187 +22.0
2025	ORtg: 118.9 DRtg: 108.0 Pace: 82.4			ORtg: 108.0 DRtg: 118.9 Pace: 82.4

Home Games Avg (5 games)		88.2	-	-	91.0	+7.5	168.4	+2.8 +4.7	O 179.2 +10.8
	ORtg: 109.5 DRtg: 113.0 Pace: 80.8			ORtg: 113.0 DRtg: 109.5 Pace: 80.8

All Games Avg (10 games)		83.5	-	-	89.5	+6.7	167.4	+6.0 +0.7	O 173.0 +5.7
	ORtg: 104.1 DRtg: 111.7 Pace: 80.3			ORtg: 111.7 DRtg: 104.1 Pace: 80.3

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Records

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Notable Trends

The Wings are 83.3% (5-1) (L30 days) to the over at home

The Wings are 70% (7-3) (L30 days) to the over as a dog

The Wings are 83.3% (5-1) (L30 days) to the over as a home dog

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Wings (Home)

The Wings are 44.8% (13-16) against the spread

The Wings are 46.7% (7-8) against the spread at home

The Wings are 47.8% (11-12) against the spread as a dog

The Wings are 46.2% (6-7) against the spread as a home dog

The Wings are 55.2% (16-13) to the over

The Wings are 53.3% (8-7) to the over at home

The Wings are 52.2% (12-11) to the over as a dog

The Wings are 53.8% (7-6) to the over as a home dog

The Wings are 45.5% (5-6) (L30 days) against the spread

The Wings are 66.7% (4-2) (L30 days) against the spread at home

The Wings are 50% (5-5) (L30 days) against the spread as a dog

The Wings are 66.7% (4-2) (L30 days) against the spread as a home dog

The Wings are 63.6% (7-4) (L30 days) to the over

The Wings are 83.3% (5-1) (L30 days) to the over at home

The Wings are 70% (7-3) (L30 days) to the over as a dog

The Wings are 83.3% (5-1) (L30 days) to the over as a home dog

Fever (Away)

The Fever are 55.2% (16-13) against the spread

The Fever are 50% (7-7) against the spread away

The Fever are 47.4% (9-10) against the spread as a fav

The Fever are 55.6% (5-4) against the spread as an away fav

The Fever are 51.7% (15-14) to the under

The Fever are 57.1% (8-6) to the under away

The Fever are 57.9% (11-8) to the under as a fav

The Fever are 66.7% (6-3) to the under as an away fav

The Fever are 58.3% (7-5) (L30 days) against the spread

The Fever are 40% (2-3) (L30 days) against the spread away

The Fever are 57.1% (4-3) (L30 days) against the spread as a fav

The Fever are 66.7% (2-1) (L30 days) against the spread as an away fav

The Fever are 58.3% (7-5) (L30 days) to the over

The Fever are 60% (3-2) (L30 days) to the over away

The Fever are 57.1% (4-3) (L30 days) to the over as a fav

The Fever are 66.7% (2-1) (L30 days) to the under as an away fav

Past Matchups (Last 2 Seasons, Max 10) Follow global filters

Date	Team	Pts		Opponent	Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
07/13/25	Wings	83	@	Fever	102	+10.0	174.5	+19	O 185 +10.5
2025	ORtg: 103.1 DRtg: 126.7 Pace: 80.5			ORtg: 126.7 DRtg: 103.1 Pace: 80.5
06/27/25	Wings	86	vs.	Fever	94	+1.5	166.5	+8	O 180 +13.5
2025	ORtg: 116.5 DRtg: 127.4 Pace: 73.8			ORtg: 127.4 DRtg: 116.5 Pace: 73.8
09/15/24	Wings	109	@	Fever	110	+9.0	186.0	+1	O 219 +33.0
2024	ORtg: 136.5 DRtg: 137.7 Pace: 79.9			ORtg: 137.7 DRtg: 136.5 Pace: 79.9
09/01/24	Wings	93	vs.	Fever	100	+3.0	183.5	+7	O 193 +9.5
2024	ORtg: 106.2 DRtg: 114.2 Pace: 87.6			ORtg: 114.2 DRtg: 106.2 Pace: 87.6
07/17/24	Wings	101	vs.	Fever	93	+4.5	178.0	-8	O 194 +16.0
2024	ORtg: 118.4 DRtg: 109.0 Pace: 85.3			ORtg: 109.0 DRtg: 118.4 Pace: 85.3

Wings as Home (3 games)		93.3	-	-	95.7	+3.0	176.0	+2.3 +0.7	O 189.0 +13.0
	ORtg: 113.7 DRtg: 116.9 Pace: 82.2			ORtg: 116.9 DRtg: 113.7 Pace: 82.2

All Games Avg (5 games)		94.4	-	-	99.8	+5.6	177.7	+5.4 +0.2	O 194.2 +16.5
	ORtg: 116.1 DRtg: 123.0 Pace: 81.4			ORtg: 123.0 DRtg: 116.1 Pace: 81.4

Algorithm	Model Side
Schedule Analysis Schedule strength and fatigue factors.	Neutral
Differentials Normalized z-scored differentials.	Neutral
Basic Stat Comp Basic 3-stat regression.	Neutral
Net Ratings + Market Analysis Simple but Effective - 57.3% High-Confidence Win Rate	Neutral
Cover Summary	No Bet
Opponent Defense Opponent and defensive metrics.	Neutral
Norms and Averages Best Totals Model - 60.1% High-Confidence Win Rate	Neutral
Total Summary	No Bet
OVERALL	No Spread Edge \| No Total Edge

WNBA Matchups: Predictions, Odds & Betting Trends

Final: 88 – 78 Indiana Fever @ Dallas Wings window.TMB_PAGE_CONTEXT = { page: 'matchup', sport: "wnba", away_team: "Indiana Fever", home_team: "Dallas Wings", game_date: null };

Odds Full WNBA odds board

Injury Report INDNo report DALNo report

Notes

Fever

Situational Factor(s)

Wings

Situational Factor(s)

Baller System(s)

Model Side

Model Total

View All Algorithms

Algorithm Breakdown

Filters

Schedules

Fever Schedule Follow global filters

Wings Schedule Follow global filters

Team Comparison Stats Loading...

On / Off Court

Next Player Up

Records

Notable Trends

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Wings (Home)

Fever (Away)

Past Matchups (Last 2 Seasons, Max 10) Follow global filters

Final: 88 – 78
Indiana Fever @ Dallas Wings