WNBA Matchups: Predictions, Odds & Betting Trends

Final: 108 – 106
Los Angeles Sparks @ Seattle Storm

Sparks: 11-15 (42.3%) | Market Rating: -1.93

Storm: 16-11 (59.3%) | Market Rating: +3.41 | Home Court: +2.1 pts

Line: -4.5

Total: 170.0

Open: -5.5

Open: 166

Team totals: Sparks 82.5 · Storm 87.5

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Games
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Injury Report LASNo report SEANo report

Notes

Sparks

Situational Factor(s)

Rest disadvantage

Double digit, in season revenge

Well rested (two or more days of rest)

Baller System(s)

Rested home team (over .500) vs. road team (under .500) go under

Storm

Situational Factor(s)

1st game home off long road trip (at least three games)

Rest advantage

Well rested (two or more days of rest)

Baller System(s)

Back slow-paced team after going over last game w/ fast pace

Back team off a good shooting performance (over 55 FG%)

Play over on Home fav who won their last matchup off a road game

Play over on slow-paced team after going over last game w/ fast pace

Baller Index Our Exclusive WNBA Baller Index is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions essentially look for teams that have over- or under-performed, in terms of points scored, relative to what would be expected based on their underlying metrics and who might be in for regression. While it does not factor in injuries, situational spots, or historic matchups into account, it can be a good place to start when thinking about a particular matchup.

Model Side

Storm

55.63% probability

Model Total

No clear side

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Filters

Team Comparison Stats, Records and the sections tied to them follow these filters; each team's Schedule and Historical Matchups follow them when their switch is on.

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Schedules

Sparks Schedule Follow global filters

Date	Team	Points		Opponent	Opp Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
08/07/25 2025	Sparks	-	vs.	Sun	-	-10.0	175.0	-	-
08/05/25 2025	Sparks	-	vs.	Fever	-	+2.0	178.0	-	-
08/01/25 2025	Sparks	-	@	Storm	-	+4.5	170.0	-	-
07/29/25	Sparks	74	vs.	Aces	89	+1.5	175.0	+15	U 163 -12.0
2025	ORtg: 90.2 DRtg: 108.5 Pace: 82.1			ORtg: 108.5 DRtg: 90.2 Pace: 82.1
07/26/25	Sparks	101	@	Liberty	99	+10.5	175.0	-2	O 200 +25.0
2025	ORtg: 120.5 DRtg: 118.1 Pace: 83.9			ORtg: 118.1 DRtg: 120.5 Pace: 83.9
07/24/25	Sparks	101	@	Sun	86	-6.0	169.5	-15	O 187 +17.5
2025	ORtg: 116.3 DRtg: 99.1 Pace: 86.8			ORtg: 99.1 DRtg: 116.3 Pace: 86.8
07/22/25	Sparks	93	@	Mystics	86	+2.5	167.5	-7	O 179 +11.5
2025	ORtg: 120.3 DRtg: 111.2 Pace: 77.3			ORtg: 111.2 DRtg: 120.3 Pace: 77.3
07/15/25	Sparks	99	vs.	Mystics	80	-1.0	165.5	-19	O 179 +13.5
2025	ORtg: 118.6 DRtg: 95.9 Pace: 83.5			ORtg: 95.9 DRtg: 118.6 Pace: 83.5
07/13/25	Sparks	92	vs.	Sun	88	-10.5	164.5	-4	O 180 +15.5
2025	ORtg: 117.8 DRtg: 112.7 Pace: 78.1			ORtg: 112.7 DRtg: 117.8 Pace: 78.1
07/10/25	Sparks	82	vs.	Lynx	91	+7.5	164.5	+9	O 173 +8.5
2025	ORtg: 103.0 DRtg: 114.3 Pace: 79.6			ORtg: 114.3 DRtg: 103.0 Pace: 79.6
07/05/25	Sparks	89	@	Fever	87	+5.0	163.5	-2	O 176 +12.5
2025	ORtg: 119.3 DRtg: 116.6 Pace: 74.6			ORtg: 116.6 DRtg: 119.3 Pace: 74.6
07/03/25	Sparks	79	@	Liberty	89	+10.0	171.0	+10	U 168 -3.0
2025	ORtg: 99.4 DRtg: 112.0 Pace: 79.5			ORtg: 112.0 DRtg: 99.4 Pace: 79.5
06/29/25	Sparks	85	vs.	Sky	92	-8.0	168.5	+7	O 177 +8.5
2025	ORtg: 109.8 DRtg: 118.8 Pace: 77.4			ORtg: 118.8 DRtg: 109.8 Pace: 77.4

Away Games Avg (5 games)		92.6	-	-	89.4	+4.4	169.3	-3.2 +7.6	O 182.0 +12.7
	ORtg: 115.2 DRtg: 111.4 Pace: 80.4			ORtg: 111.4 DRtg: 115.2 Pace: 80.4

All Games Avg (10 games)		89.5	-	-	88.7	+1.2	168.5	-0.8 +2.0	O 178.2 +9.8
	ORtg: 111.5 DRtg: 110.7 Pace: 80.3			ORtg: 110.7 DRtg: 111.5 Pace: 80.3

Storm Schedule Follow global filters

Date	Team	Points		Opponent	Opp Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
08/05/25 2025	Storm	-	vs.	Lynx	-	-2.0	156.5	-	-
08/03/25 2025	Storm	-	vs.	Fever	-	-3.0	164.5	-	-
08/01/25 2025	Storm	-	vs.	Sparks	-	-4.5	170.0	-	-
07/28/25	Storm	101	@	Sun	85	-11.0	157.5	-16	O 186 +28.5
2025	ORtg: 117.7 DRtg: 99.1 Pace: 85.8			ORtg: 99.1 DRtg: 117.7 Pace: 85.8
07/26/25	Storm	58	@	Mystics	69	-4.0	155.5	+11	U 127 -28.5
2025	ORtg: 75.5 DRtg: 89.8 Pace: 76.8			ORtg: 89.8 DRtg: 75.5 Pace: 76.8
07/24/25	Storm	95	@	Sky	57	-11.0	154.0	-38	U 152 -2.0
2025	ORtg: 123.2 DRtg: 73.9 Pace: 77.1			ORtg: 73.9 DRtg: 123.2 Pace: 77.1
07/22/25	Storm	63	vs.	Wings	87	-9.0	164.5	+24	U 150 -14.5
2025	ORtg: 76.4 DRtg: 105.6 Pace: 82.4			ORtg: 105.6 DRtg: 76.4 Pace: 82.4
07/16/25	Storm	67	vs.	Valkyries	58	-5.0	155.5	-9	U 125 -30.5
2025	ORtg: 93.9 DRtg: 81.3 Pace: 71.3			ORtg: 81.3 DRtg: 93.9 Pace: 71.3
07/13/25	Storm	69	vs.	Mystics	74	-7.0	156.5	+5	U 143 -13.5
2025	ORtg: 90.2 DRtg: 96.7 Pace: 76.5			ORtg: 96.7 DRtg: 90.2 Pace: 76.5
07/11/25	Storm	79	vs.	Sun	65	-18.5	157.5	-14	U 144 -13.5
2025	ORtg: 113.4 DRtg: 93.3 Pace: 69.7			ORtg: 93.3 DRtg: 113.4 Pace: 69.7
07/09/25	Storm	83	@	Sun	93	-16.5	155.5	+10	O 176 +20.5
2025	ORtg: 107.1 DRtg: 120.0 Pace: 77.5			ORtg: 120.0 DRtg: 107.1 Pace: 77.5
07/06/25	Storm	79	@	Liberty	70	+5.0	167.5	-9	U 149 -18.5
2025	ORtg: 103.8 DRtg: 92.0 Pace: 76.1			ORtg: 92.0 DRtg: 103.8 Pace: 76.1
07/03/25	Storm	80	@	Dream	79	+1.0	158.0	-1	O 159 +1.0
2025	ORtg: 104.2 DRtg: 102.9 Pace: 76.8			ORtg: 102.9 DRtg: 104.2 Pace: 76.8

Home Games Avg (4 games)		69.5	-	-	71.0	-9.9	158.5	+1.5 -11.4	U 140.5 -18.0
	ORtg: 93.5 DRtg: 94.2 Pace: 75.0			ORtg: 94.2 DRtg: 93.5 Pace: 75.0

All Games Avg (10 games)		77.4	-	-	73.7	-7.6	158.2	-3.7 -3.9	U 151.1 -7.1
	ORtg: 100.5 DRtg: 95.5 Pace: 77.0			ORtg: 95.5 DRtg: 100.5 Pace: 77.0

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Records

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Notable Trends

The Storm are 27.3% (3-8) against the spread as a home fav

The Storm are 20% (1-4) (L30 days) against the spread at home

The Storm are 20% (1-4) (L30 days) against the spread as a home fav

The Storm are 80% (4-1) (L30 days) to the under at home

The Storm are 80% (4-1) (L30 days) to the under as a home fav

The Sparks are 71.4% (10-4-1) against the spread away

The Sparks are 70% (7-3-1) against the spread as an away dog

The Sparks are 70.4% (19-8) to the over

The Sparks are 72.7% (8-3) to the over as an away dog

The Sparks are 100% (5-0-1) (L30 days) against the spread away

The Sparks are 100% (4-0-1) (L30 days) against the spread as an away dog

The Sparks are 80% (8-2) (L30 days) to the over

The Sparks are 83.3% (5-1) (L30 days) to the over away

The Sparks are 71.4% (5-2) (L30 days) to the over as a dog

The Sparks are 80% (4-1) (L30 days) to the over as an away dog

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Storm (Home)

The Storm are 50% (14-14) against the spread

The Storm are 35.7% (5-9) against the spread at home

The Storm are 40.9% (9-13) against the spread as a fav

The Storm are 27.3% (3-8) against the spread as a home fav

The Storm are 50% (14-14) to the over

The Storm are 50% (7-7) to the over at home

The Storm are 54.5% (12-10) to the under as a fav

The Storm are 54.5% (6-5) to the under as a home fav

The Storm are 45.5% (5-6) (L30 days) against the spread

The Storm are 20% (1-4) (L30 days) against the spread at home

The Storm are 33.3% (3-6) (L30 days) against the spread as a fav

The Storm are 20% (1-4) (L30 days) against the spread as a home fav

The Storm are 63.6% (7-4) (L30 days) to the under

The Storm are 80% (4-1) (L30 days) to the under at home

The Storm are 66.7% (6-3) (L30 days) to the under as a fav

The Storm are 80% (4-1) (L30 days) to the under as a home fav

Sparks (Away)

The Sparks are 46.2% (12-14-1) against the spread

The Sparks are 71.4% (10-4-1) against the spread away

The Sparks are 50% (7-7-1) against the spread as a dog

The Sparks are 70% (7-3-1) against the spread as an away dog

The Sparks are 70.4% (19-8) to the over

The Sparks are 66.7% (10-5) to the over away

The Sparks are 66.7% (10-5) to the over as a dog

The Sparks are 72.7% (8-3) to the over as an away dog

The Sparks are 66.7% (6-3-1) (L30 days) against the spread

The Sparks are 100% (5-0-1) (L30 days) against the spread away

The Sparks are 66.7% (4-2-1) (L30 days) against the spread as a dog

The Sparks are 100% (4-0-1) (L30 days) against the spread as an away dog

The Sparks are 80% (8-2) (L30 days) to the over

The Sparks are 83.3% (5-1) (L30 days) to the over away

The Sparks are 71.4% (5-2) (L30 days) to the over as a dog

The Sparks are 80% (4-1) (L30 days) to the over as an away dog

Past Matchups (Last 2 Seasons, Max 10) Follow global filters

Date	Team	Pts		Opponent	Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
06/17/25	Storm	98	@	Sparks	67	-9.0	155.0	-31	O 165 +10.0
2025	ORtg: 119.2 DRtg: 81.5 Pace: 82.2			ORtg: 81.5 DRtg: 119.2 Pace: 82.2
09/15/24	Storm	90	vs.	Sparks	87	-8.5	161.0	-3	O 177 +16.0
2024	ORtg: 110.9 DRtg: 107.2 Pace: 81.1			ORtg: 107.2 DRtg: 110.9 Pace: 81.1
09/11/24	Storm	90	@	Sparks	82	-12.5	162.5	-8	O 172 +9.5
2024	ORtg: 114.5 DRtg: 104.4 Pace: 78.6			ORtg: 104.4 DRtg: 114.5 Pace: 78.6
07/16/24	Storm	89	@	Sparks	83	-10.0	162.5	-6	O 172 +9.5
2024	ORtg: 113.9 DRtg: 106.2 Pace: 78.2			ORtg: 106.2 DRtg: 113.9 Pace: 78.2
06/11/24	Storm	95	vs.	Sparks	79	-11.5	157.0	-16	O 174 +17.0
2024	ORtg: 120.4 DRtg: 100.1 Pace: 78.9			ORtg: 100.1 DRtg: 120.4 Pace: 78.9

Storm as Home (2 games)		92.5	-	-	83.0	-10.0	159.0	-9.5 -0.5	O 175.5 +16.5
	ORtg: 115.6 DRtg: 103.7 Pace: 80.0			ORtg: 103.7 DRtg: 115.6 Pace: 80.0

All Games Avg (5 games)		92.4	-	-	79.6	-10.3	159.6	-12.8 +2.5	O 172.0 +12.4
	ORtg: 115.8 DRtg: 99.9 Pace: 79.8			ORtg: 99.9 DRtg: 115.8 Pace: 79.8

Algorithm	Model Side
Schedule Analysis Schedule strength and fatigue factors.	Neutral
Differentials Normalized z-scored differentials.	Neutral
Basic Stat Comp Basic 3-stat regression.	Storm (2x)
Net Ratings + Market Analysis Simple but Effective - 57.3% High-Confidence Win Rate	Neutral
Cover Summary	Storm
Opponent Defense Opponent and defensive metrics.	Neutral
Norms and Averages Best Totals Model - 60.1% High-Confidence Win Rate	Neutral
Total Summary	No Bet
OVERALL	Storm \| No Total Edge

WNBA Matchups: Predictions, Odds & Betting Trends

Final: 108 – 106 Los Angeles Sparks @ Seattle Storm window.TMB_PAGE_CONTEXT = { page: 'matchup', sport: "wnba", away_team: "Los Angeles Sparks", home_team: "Seattle Storm", game_date: null };

Odds Full WNBA odds board

Injury Report LASNo report SEANo report

Notes

Sparks

Situational Factor(s)

Baller System(s)

Storm

Situational Factor(s)

Baller System(s)

Model Side

Model Total

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Algorithm Breakdown

Filters

Schedules

Sparks Schedule Follow global filters

Storm Schedule Follow global filters

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On / Off Court

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Records

Notable Trends

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Storm (Home)

Sparks (Away)

Past Matchups (Last 2 Seasons, Max 10) Follow global filters

Final: 108 – 106
Los Angeles Sparks @ Seattle Storm