WNBA Matchups: Predictions, Odds & Betting Trends

Final: 73 – 66
Golden State Valkyries @ Chicago Sky

Valkyries: 13-13 (50.0%) | Market Rating: -1.33

Sky: 7-19 (26.9%) | Market Rating: -5.95 | Home Court: +0.2 pts

Line: +4.5

Total: 153.0

Open: +5.5

Open: 154.5

Team totals: Valkyries 79.5 · Sky 74.5

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Games
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Injury Report GSVNo report CHINo report

Notes

Valkyries

Situational Factor(s)

Coming off a win as a dog (letdown)

Rest disadvantage

Travel fatigue, at least fourth straight game on the road

Baller System(s)

Away + won previous matchup at home

Sky

Situational Factor(s)

In season revenge

Rest advantage

Well rested (two or more days of rest)

Baller System(s)

Back team off more rest and has more rest in upcoming game than opponent

Baller Index Our Exclusive WNBA Baller Index is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions essentially look for teams that have over- or under-performed, in terms of points scored, relative to what would be expected based on their underlying metrics and who might be in for regression. While it does not factor in injuries, situational spots, or historic matchups into account, it can be a good place to start when thinking about a particular matchup.

Model Side

Valkyries

61.88% probability

Model Total

No clear side

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Filters

Team Comparison Stats, Records and the sections tied to them follow these filters; each team's Schedule and Historical Matchups follow them when their switch is on.

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Schedules

Valkyries Schedule Follow global filters

Date	Team	Points		Opponent	Opp Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
08/06/25 2025	Valkyries	-	vs.	Aces	-	+5.5	157.5	-	-
08/03/25 2025	Valkyries	-	@	Aces	-	+9.5	157.0	-	-
08/01/25 2025	Valkyries	-	@	Sky	-	-4.5	153.0	-	-
07/31/25	Valkyries	68	@	Mystics	67	+4.0	154.5	-1	U 135 -19.5
2025	ORtg: 97.2 DRtg: 95.7 Pace: 70.0			ORtg: 95.7 DRtg: 97.2 Pace: 70.0
07/29/25	Valkyries	77	@	Dream	75	+8.5	155.5	-2	U 152 -3.5
2025	ORtg: 113.3 DRtg: 110.4 Pace: 67.9			ORtg: 110.4 DRtg: 113.3 Pace: 67.9
07/27/25	Valkyries	64	@	Sun	95	-4.5	156.5	+31	O 159 +2.5
2025	ORtg: 81.9 DRtg: 121.6 Pace: 78.2			ORtg: 121.6 DRtg: 81.9 Pace: 78.2
07/25/25	Valkyries	86	vs.	Wings	76	-4.0	162.5	-10	U 162 -0.5
2025	ORtg: 110.6 DRtg: 97.7 Pace: 77.8			ORtg: 97.7 DRtg: 110.6 Pace: 77.8
07/16/25	Valkyries	58	@	Storm	67	+5.0	155.5	+9	U 125 -30.5
2025	ORtg: 81.3 DRtg: 93.9 Pace: 71.3			ORtg: 93.9 DRtg: 81.3 Pace: 71.3
07/14/25	Valkyries	77	vs.	Mercury	78	-2.5	158.5	+1	U 155 -3.5
2025	ORtg: 102.2 DRtg: 103.5 Pace: 75.4			ORtg: 103.5 DRtg: 102.2 Pace: 75.4
07/12/25	Valkyries	102	@	Aces	104	+5.0	156.5	+2	O 206 +49.5
2025	ORtg: 132.9 DRtg: 135.5 Pace: 76.7			ORtg: 135.5 DRtg: 132.9 Pace: 76.7
07/09/25	Valkyries	80	@	Fever	61	+7.0	165.0	-19	U 141 -24.0
2025	ORtg: 99.5 DRtg: 75.8 Pace: 80.4			ORtg: 75.8 DRtg: 99.5 Pace: 80.4
07/07/25	Valkyries	81	@	Dream	90	+7.5	157.5	+9	O 171 +13.5
2025	ORtg: 102.3 DRtg: 113.7 Pace: 79.2			ORtg: 113.7 DRtg: 102.3 Pace: 79.2
07/05/25	Valkyries	71	@	Lynx	82	+9.5	156.0	+11	U 153 -3.0
2025	ORtg: 105.0 DRtg: 121.3 Pace: 67.6			ORtg: 121.3 DRtg: 105.0 Pace: 67.6

Away Games Avg (8 games)		75.1	-	-	80.1	+5.3	157.1	+5.0 +0.3	U 155.3 -1.9
	ORtg: 101.7 DRtg: 108.5 Pace: 73.9			ORtg: 108.5 DRtg: 101.7 Pace: 73.9

All Games Avg (10 games)		76.4	-	-	79.5	+3.6	157.8	+3.1 +0.5	U 155.9 -1.9
	ORtg: 102.6 DRtg: 106.9 Pace: 74.5			ORtg: 106.9 DRtg: 102.6 Pace: 74.5

Sky Schedule Follow global filters

Date	Team	Points		Opponent	Opp Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
08/05/25 2025	Sky	-	vs.	Mystics	-	+5.5	156.0	-	-
08/03/25 2025	Sky	-	vs.	Mercury	-	+12.5	164.5	-	-
08/01/25 2025	Sky	-	vs.	Valkyries	-	+4.5	153.0	-	-
07/29/25	Sky	86	@	Mystics	103	+7.5	156.5	+17	O 189 +32.5
2025	ORtg: 108.3 DRtg: 129.7 Pace: 79.4			ORtg: 129.7 DRtg: 108.3 Pace: 79.4
07/27/25	Sky	78	vs.	Fever	93	+11.5	156.0	+15	O 171 +15.0
2025	ORtg: 97.6 DRtg: 116.4 Pace: 79.9			ORtg: 116.4 DRtg: 97.6 Pace: 79.9
07/24/25	Sky	57	vs.	Storm	95	+11.0	154.0	+38	U 152 -2.0
2025	ORtg: 73.9 DRtg: 123.2 Pace: 77.1			ORtg: 123.2 DRtg: 73.9 Pace: 77.1
07/22/25	Sky	68	@	Lynx	91	+15.5	159.0	+23	P 159 0.0
2025	ORtg: 91.1 DRtg: 121.9 Pace: 74.7			ORtg: 121.9 DRtg: 91.1 Pace: 74.7
07/16/25	Sky	49	vs.	Dream	86	+10.0	158.5	+37	U 135 -23.5
2025	ORtg: 63.8 DRtg: 111.9 Pace: 76.8			ORtg: 111.9 DRtg: 63.8 Pace: 76.8
07/14/25	Sky	78	vs.	Lynx	91	+11.0	160.0	+13	O 169 +9.0
2025	ORtg: 101.1 DRtg: 117.9 Pace: 77.2			ORtg: 117.9 DRtg: 101.1 Pace: 77.2
07/12/25	Sky	87	vs.	Lynx	81	+11.5	161.0	-6	O 168 +7.0
2025	ORtg: 106.1 DRtg: 98.8 Pace: 82.0			ORtg: 98.8 DRtg: 106.1 Pace: 82.0
07/09/25	Sky	87	vs.	Wings	76	0.0	166.5	-11	U 163 -3.5
2025	ORtg: 115.5 DRtg: 100.9 Pace: 75.3			ORtg: 100.9 DRtg: 115.5 Pace: 75.3
07/08/25	Sky	79	@	Mystics	81	+7.0	159.5	+2	O 160 +0.5
2025	ORtg: 97.5 DRtg: 100.0 Pace: 81.0			ORtg: 100.0 DRtg: 97.5 Pace: 81.0
07/06/25	Sky	75	@	Lynx	80	+14.5	161.5	+5	U 155 -6.5
2025	ORtg: 97.0 DRtg: 103.4 Pace: 77.4			ORtg: 103.4 DRtg: 97.0 Pace: 77.4

Home Games Avg (6 games)		72.7	-	-	87.0	+9.2	159.3	+14.3 -5.2	O 159.7 +0.3
	ORtg: 93.0 DRtg: 111.5 Pace: 78.1			ORtg: 111.5 DRtg: 93.0 Pace: 78.1

All Games Avg (10 games)		74.4	-	-	87.7	+10.0	159.3	+13.3 -3.4	O 162.1 +2.9
	ORtg: 95.2 DRtg: 112.4 Pace: 78.1			ORtg: 112.4 DRtg: 95.2 Pace: 78.1

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Records

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Notable Trends

The Sky are 25% (3-9) against the spread as a home dog

The Sky are 28.6% (2-5) (L30 days) against the spread at home

The Sky are 30% (3-7) (L30 days) against the spread as a dog

The Sky are 16.7% (1-5) (L30 days) against the spread as a home dog

The Valkyries are 72.7% (8-3) (L30 days) to the under

The Valkyries are 75% (3-1) (L30 days) to the under as a fav

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Sky (Home)

The Sky are 44.4% (12-15) against the spread

The Sky are 30.8% (4-9) against the spread at home

The Sky are 42.3% (11-15) against the spread as a dog

The Sky are 25% (3-9) against the spread as a home dog

The Sky are 57.7% (15-11-1) to the over

The Sky are 53.8% (7-6) to the over at home

The Sky are 60% (15-10-1) to the over as a dog

The Sky are 58.3% (7-5) to the over as a home dog

The Sky are 36.4% (4-7) (L30 days) against the spread

The Sky are 28.6% (2-5) (L30 days) against the spread at home

The Sky are 30% (3-7) (L30 days) against the spread as a dog

The Sky are 16.7% (1-5) (L30 days) against the spread as a home dog

The Sky are 50% (5-5-1) (L30 days) to the over

The Sky are 57.1% (4-3) (L30 days) to the under at home

The Sky are 55.6% (5-4-1) (L30 days) to the over as a dog

The Sky are 50% (3-3) (L30 days) to the over as a home dog

Valkyries (Away)

The Valkyries are 63% (17-10) against the spread

The Valkyries are 53.3% (8-7) against the spread away

The Valkyries are 50% (3-3) against the spread as a fav

The Valkyries are 50% (1-1) against the spread as an away fav

The Valkyries are 66.7% (18-9) to the under

The Valkyries are 66.7% (10-5) to the under away

The Valkyries are 66.7% (4-2) to the under as a fav

The Valkyries are 50% (1-1) to the over as an away fav

The Valkyries are 54.5% (6-5) (L30 days) against the spread

The Valkyries are 55.6% (5-4) (L30 days) against the spread away

The Valkyries are 50% (2-2) (L30 days) against the spread as a fav

The Valkyries are 50% (1-1) (L30 days) against the spread as an away fav

The Valkyries are 72.7% (8-3) (L30 days) to the under

The Valkyries are 66.7% (6-3) (L30 days) to the under away

The Valkyries are 75% (3-1) (L30 days) to the under as a fav

The Valkyries are 50% (1-1) (L30 days) to the over as an away fav

Past Matchups (Last 2 Seasons, Max 10) Follow global filters

Date	Team	Pts		Opponent	Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
06/27/25	Sky	78	@	Valkyries	83	+9.0	157.5	+5	O 161 +3.5
2025	ORtg: 98.8 DRtg: 105.2 Pace: 78.9			ORtg: 105.2 DRtg: 98.8 Pace: 78.9

All Games Avg (1 games)		78.0	-	-	83.0	+9.0	157.5	+5.0 +4.0	O 161.0 +3.5
	ORtg: 98.8 DRtg: 105.2 Pace: 78.9			ORtg: 105.2 DRtg: 98.8 Pace: 78.9

Algorithm	Model Side
Schedule Analysis Schedule strength and fatigue factors.	Neutral
Differentials Normalized z-scored differentials.	Valkyries (2x)
Basic Stat Comp Basic 3-stat regression.	Valkyries (2x)
Net Ratings + Market Analysis Simple but Effective - 57.3% High-Confidence Win Rate	Valkyries (2x)
Cover Summary	Valkyries
Opponent Defense Opponent and defensive metrics.	Neutral
Norms and Averages Best Totals Model - 60.1% High-Confidence Win Rate	Neutral
Total Summary	No Bet
OVERALL	Valkyries \| No Total Edge

WNBA Matchups: Predictions, Odds & Betting Trends

Final: 73 – 66 Golden State Valkyries @ Chicago Sky window.TMB_PAGE_CONTEXT = { page: 'matchup', sport: "wnba", away_team: "Golden State Valkyries", home_team: "Chicago Sky", game_date: null };

Odds Full WNBA odds board

Injury Report GSVNo report CHINo report

Notes

Valkyries

Situational Factor(s)

Baller System(s)

Sky

Situational Factor(s)

Baller System(s)

Model Side

Model Total

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Algorithm Breakdown

Filters

Schedules

Valkyries Schedule Follow global filters

Sky Schedule Follow global filters

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On / Off Court

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Records

Notable Trends

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Sky (Home)

Valkyries (Away)

Past Matchups (Last 2 Seasons, Max 10) Follow global filters

Final: 73 – 66
Golden State Valkyries @ Chicago Sky