WNBA Matchups: Predictions, Odds & Betting Trends

Final: 75 – 80
Chicago Sky @ Minnesota Lynx

Sky: 5-11 (31.3%) | Market Rating: -5.95

Lynx: 16-2 (88.9%) | Market Rating: +4.48 | Home Court: +3.2 pts

Line: -14.5

Total: 161.5

Open: -14.5

Open: 160

Team totals: Sky 72.5 · Lynx 88.5

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Games
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Injury Report CHINo report MINNo report

Notes

Sky

Situational Factor(s)

Coming off a win as a dog (letdown)

Rest advantage

Well rested (two or more days of rest)

Baller System(s)

Back a dog off a win as a dog with more rest

Back dog off a road game

Back double digit dog off a win

Back road team off win w/ more rest

Back team off more rest and has more rest in upcoming game than opponent

Lynx

Situational Factor(s)

Rest disadvantage

Baller System(s)

Fade rusty road team off 4+ days rest

Play over on team that has had a high assist-to-turnover ratio for multiple games

Baller Index Our Exclusive WNBA Baller Index is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions essentially look for teams that have over- or under-performed, in terms of points scored, relative to what would be expected based on their underlying metrics and who might be in for regression. While it does not factor in injuries, situational spots, or historic matchups into account, it can be a good place to start when thinking about a particular matchup.

Model Side

Lynx

55.63% probability

Model Total

No clear side

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Filters

Team Comparison Stats, Records and the sections tied to them follow these filters; each team's Schedule and Historical Matchups follow them when their switch is on.

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Schedules

Sky Schedule Follow global filters

Date	Team	Points		Opponent	Opp Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
07/09/25 2025	Sky	-	vs.	Wings	-	0.0	166.5	-	-
07/08/25 2025	Sky	-	@	Mystics	-	+7.0	159.5	-	-
07/06/25 2025	Sky	-	@	Lynx	-	+14.5	161.5	-	-
06/29/25	Sky	92	@	Sparks	85	+8.0	168.5	-7	O 177 +8.5
2025	ORtg: 118.8 DRtg: 109.8 Pace: 77.4			ORtg: 109.8 DRtg: 118.8 Pace: 77.4
06/27/25	Sky	78	@	Valkyries	83	+9.0	157.5	+5	O 161 +3.5
2025	ORtg: 98.8 DRtg: 105.2 Pace: 78.9			ORtg: 105.2 DRtg: 98.8 Pace: 78.9
06/24/25	Sky	97	vs.	Sparks	86	+5.0	167.0	-11	O 183 +16.0
2025	ORtg: 119.2 DRtg: 105.7 Pace: 81.4			ORtg: 105.7 DRtg: 119.2 Pace: 81.4
06/22/25	Sky	80	@	Dream	93	+16.5	159.5	+13	O 173 +13.5
2025	ORtg: 103.6 DRtg: 120.5 Pace: 77.2			ORtg: 120.5 DRtg: 103.6 Pace: 77.2
06/21/25	Sky	86	vs.	Mercury	107	+11.0	160.5	+21	O 193 +32.5
2025	ORtg: 105.5 DRtg: 131.3 Pace: 81.5			ORtg: 131.3 DRtg: 105.5 Pace: 81.5
06/17/25	Sky	72	vs.	Mystics	79	+4.5	155.5	+7	U 151 -4.5
2025	ORtg: 93.8 DRtg: 102.9 Pace: 76.7			ORtg: 102.9 DRtg: 93.8 Pace: 76.7
06/15/25	Sky	78	@	Sun	66	+1.5	157.0	-12	U 144 -13.0
2025	ORtg: 108.7 DRtg: 92.0 Pace: 71.8			ORtg: 92.0 DRtg: 108.7 Pace: 71.8
06/13/25	Sky	70	@	Dream	88	+12.5	158.5	+18	U 158 -0.5
2025	ORtg: 93.1 DRtg: 117.0 Pace: 75.2			ORtg: 117.0 DRtg: 93.1 Pace: 75.2
06/10/25	Sky	66	@	Liberty	85	+16.5	163.5	+19	U 151 -12.5
2025	ORtg: 83.3 DRtg: 107.3 Pace: 79.2			ORtg: 107.3 DRtg: 83.3 Pace: 79.2
06/07/25	Sky	52	vs.	Fever	79	+3.0	166.0	+27	U 131 -35.0
2025	ORtg: 75.0 DRtg: 114.0 Pace: 69.3			ORtg: 114.0 DRtg: 75.0 Pace: 69.3

Away Games Avg (6 games)		77.3	-	-	83.3	+10.7	160.8	+6.0 +4.7	U 160.7 -0.1
	ORtg: 101.1 DRtg: 108.6 Pace: 76.6			ORtg: 108.6 DRtg: 101.1 Pace: 76.6

All Games Avg (10 games)		77.1	-	-	85.1	+8.8	161.4	+8.0 +0.8	O 162.2 +0.9
	ORtg: 100.0 DRtg: 110.5 Pace: 76.9			ORtg: 110.5 DRtg: 100.0 Pace: 76.9

Lynx Schedule Follow global filters

Date	Team	Points		Opponent	Opp Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
07/10/25 2025	Lynx	-	@	Sparks	-	-7.5	164.5	-	-
07/09/25 2025	Lynx	-	@	Mercury	-	-7.5	160.5	-	-
07/06/25 2025	Lynx	-	vs.	Sky	-	-14.5	161.5	-	-
07/05/25	Lynx	82	vs.	Valkyries	71	-9.5	156.0	-11	U 153 -3.0
2025	ORtg: 121.3 DRtg: 105.0 Pace: 67.6			ORtg: 105.0 DRtg: 121.3 Pace: 67.6
07/03/25	Lynx	92	vs.	Mystics	75	-11.5	155.5	-17	O 167 +11.5
2025	ORtg: 112.3 DRtg: 91.6 Pace: 81.9			ORtg: 91.6 DRtg: 112.3 Pace: 81.9
07/01/25	Lynx	59	vs.	Fever	74	-11.5	158.5	+15	U 133 -25.5
2025	ORtg: 82.0 DRtg: 102.9 Pace: 71.9			ORtg: 102.9 DRtg: 82.0 Pace: 71.9
06/29/25	Lynx	102	vs.	Sun	63	-20.5	154.5	-39	O 165 +10.5
2025	ORtg: 131.1 DRtg: 81.0 Pace: 77.8			ORtg: 81.0 DRtg: 131.1 Pace: 77.8
06/27/25	Lynx	96	@	Dream	92 OT	-4.0	157.5	-4	O 188 +30.5
2025	ORtg: 114.7 DRtg: 110.0 Pace: 74.4			ORtg: 110.0 DRtg: 114.7 Pace: 74.4
06/24/25	Lynx	64	@	Mystics	68	-7.5	156.0	+4	U 132 -24.0
2025	ORtg: 83.5 DRtg: 88.8 Pace: 76.6			ORtg: 88.8 DRtg: 83.5 Pace: 76.6
06/21/25	Lynx	82	vs.	Sparks	66	-8.0	162.5	-16	U 148 -14.5
2025	ORtg: 109.1 DRtg: 87.8 Pace: 75.1			ORtg: 87.8 DRtg: 109.1 Pace: 75.1
06/17/25	Lynx	76	vs.	Aces	62	-13.0	161.0	-14	U 138 -23.0
2025	ORtg: 103.1 DRtg: 84.1 Pace: 73.7			ORtg: 84.1 DRtg: 103.1 Pace: 73.7
06/14/25	Lynx	101	vs.	Sparks	78	-12.0	163.5	-23	O 179 +15.5
2025	ORtg: 130.9 DRtg: 101.1 Pace: 77.2			ORtg: 101.1 DRtg: 130.9 Pace: 77.2
06/11/25	Lynx	84	@	Storm	94	-3.5	155.0	+10	O 178 +23.0
2025	ORtg: 111.4 DRtg: 124.6 Pace: 75.4			ORtg: 124.6 DRtg: 111.4 Pace: 75.4

Home Games Avg (7 games)		84.9	-	-	69.9	-12.3	158.8	-15.0 +2.7	U 154.7 -4.1
	ORtg: 112.8 DRtg: 93.4 Pace: 75.0			ORtg: 93.4 DRtg: 112.8 Pace: 75.0

All Games Avg (10 games)		83.8	-	-	74.3	-10.1	158.0	-9.5 -0.6	O 158.1 +0.1
	ORtg: 110.0 DRtg: 97.7 Pace: 75.2			ORtg: 97.7 DRtg: 110.0 Pace: 75.2

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On / Off Court

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Records

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Notable Trends

The Lynx are 75% (6-2) (L30 days) against the spread at home

The Lynx are 75% (6-2) (L30 days) against the spread as a home fav

The Sky are 71.4% (5-2) (L30 days) against the spread away

The Sky are 71.4% (5-2) (L30 days) against the spread as an away dog

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Lynx (Home)

The Lynx are 52.6% (10-9-1) against the spread

The Lynx are 58.3% (7-5) against the spread at home

The Lynx are 52.6% (10-9-1) against the spread as a fav

The Lynx are 58.3% (7-5) against the spread as a home fav

The Lynx are 60% (12-8) to the under

The Lynx are 66.7% (8-4) to the under at home

The Lynx are 60% (12-8) to the under as a fav

The Lynx are 66.7% (8-4) to the under as a home fav

The Lynx are 63.6% (7-4-1) (L30 days) against the spread

The Lynx are 75% (6-2) (L30 days) against the spread at home

The Lynx are 63.6% (7-4-1) (L30 days) against the spread as a fav

The Lynx are 75% (6-2) (L30 days) against the spread as a home fav

The Lynx are 58.3% (7-5) (L30 days) to the under

The Lynx are 62.5% (5-3) (L30 days) to the under at home

The Lynx are 58.3% (7-5) (L30 days) to the under as a fav

The Lynx are 62.5% (5-3) (L30 days) to the under as a home fav

Sky (Away)

The Sky are 52.9% (9-8) against the spread

The Sky are 63.6% (7-4) against the spread away

The Sky are 52.9% (9-8) against the spread as a dog

The Sky are 63.6% (7-4) against the spread as an away dog

The Sky are 58.8% (10-7) to the over

The Sky are 54.5% (6-5) to the over away

The Sky are 58.8% (10-7) to the over as a dog

The Sky are 54.5% (6-5) to the over as an away dog

The Sky are 54.5% (6-5) (L30 days) against the spread

The Sky are 71.4% (5-2) (L30 days) against the spread away

The Sky are 54.5% (6-5) (L30 days) against the spread as a dog

The Sky are 71.4% (5-2) (L30 days) against the spread as an away dog

The Sky are 54.5% (6-5) (L30 days) to the under

The Sky are 57.1% (4-3) (L30 days) to the under away

The Sky are 54.5% (6-5) (L30 days) to the under as a dog

The Sky are 57.1% (4-3) (L30 days) to the under as an away dog

Past Matchups (Last 2 Seasons, Max 10) Follow global filters

Date	Team	Pts		Opponent	Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
09/13/24	Lynx	83	vs.	Sky	66	-13.0	158.5	-17	U 149 -9.5
2024	ORtg: 107.6 DRtg: 85.5 Pace: 77.2			ORtg: 85.5 DRtg: 107.6 Pace: 77.2
09/01/24	Lynx	79	vs.	Sky	74	-12.0	158.0	-5	U 153 -5.0
2024	ORtg: 106.9 DRtg: 100.2 Pace: 73.9			ORtg: 100.2 DRtg: 106.9 Pace: 73.9
06/30/24	Lynx	70	@	Sky	62	-7.0	163.5	-8	U 132 -31.5
2024	ORtg: 85.0 DRtg: 75.3 Pace: 82.4			ORtg: 75.3 DRtg: 85.0 Pace: 82.4

Lynx as Home (2 games)		81.0	-	-	70.0	-12.5	158.3	-11.0 -1.5	U 151.0 -7.3
	ORtg: 107.2 DRtg: 92.8 Pace: 75.5			ORtg: 92.8 DRtg: 107.2 Pace: 75.5

All Games Avg (3 games)		77.3	-	-	67.3	-10.7	160.0	-10.0 -0.7	U 144.7 -15.3
	ORtg: 99.8 DRtg: 87.0 Pace: 77.8			ORtg: 87.0 DRtg: 99.8 Pace: 77.8

Algorithm	Model Side
Schedule Analysis Schedule strength and fatigue factors.	Lynx (2x)
Differentials Normalized z-scored differentials.	Neutral
Basic Stat Comp Basic 3-stat regression.	Neutral
Net Ratings + Market Analysis Simple but Effective - 57.3% High-Confidence Win Rate	Neutral
Cover Summary	Lynx
Opponent Defense Opponent and defensive metrics.	Neutral
Norms and Averages Best Totals Model - 60.1% High-Confidence Win Rate	Neutral
Total Summary	No Bet
OVERALL	Lynx \| No Total Edge

WNBA Matchups: Predictions, Odds & Betting Trends

Final: 75 – 80 Chicago Sky @ Minnesota Lynx window.TMB_PAGE_CONTEXT = { page: 'matchup', sport: "wnba", away_team: "Chicago Sky", home_team: "Minnesota Lynx", game_date: null };

Odds Full WNBA odds board

Injury Report CHINo report MINNo report

Notes

Sky

Situational Factor(s)

Baller System(s)

Lynx

Situational Factor(s)

Baller System(s)

Model Side

Model Total

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Algorithm Breakdown

Filters

Schedules

Sky Schedule Follow global filters

Lynx Schedule Follow global filters

Team Comparison Stats Loading...

On / Off Court

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Records

Notable Trends

View All Records

Lynx (Home)

Sky (Away)

Past Matchups (Last 2 Seasons, Max 10) Follow global filters

Final: 75 – 80
Chicago Sky @ Minnesota Lynx