WNBA Matchups: Predictions, Odds & Betting Trends

Final: 79 – 89
New York Liberty @ Seattle Storm

Liberty: 10-2 (83.3%) | Market Rating: +5.98

Storm: 8-5 (61.5%) | Market Rating: +3.18 | Home Court: +0.4 pts

Line: -3.5

Total: 160.5

Open: +4

Open: 164.5

Team totals: Liberty 78.5 · Storm 82.5

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Games
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Injury Report NYLNo report SEANo report

Notes

Liberty

Situational Factor(s)

Coming off a loss as a favorite (bounce back)

Rest advantage

Well rested (two or more days of rest)

Baller System(s)

Back team off more rest and has more rest in upcoming game than opponent

Back team w/ more rest and less road games in previous 5 games

Fade a small fav (3.5 or less) off a win

Storm

Situational Factor(s)

1st game home off long road trip (at least three games)

Rest disadvantage

Baller System(s)

Back home team in matchup between two elite teams

Back home team w/ less rest vs. team off a loss

Play over on home team w/ less rest vs. team off a loss

Play over on team that has had a high assist-to-turnover ratio for multiple games

Baller Index Our Exclusive WNBA Baller Index is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions essentially look for teams that have over- or under-performed, in terms of points scored, relative to what would be expected based on their underlying metrics and who might be in for regression. While it does not factor in injuries, situational spots, or historic matchups into account, it can be a good place to start when thinking about a particular matchup.

Model Side

No clear side

Model Total

No clear side

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Filters

Team Comparison Stats, Records and the sections tied to them follow these filters; each team's Schedule and Historical Matchups follow them when their switch is on.

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Schedules

Liberty Schedule Follow global filters

Date	Team	Points		Opponent	Opp Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
06/27/25 2025	Liberty	-	@	Mercury	-	+1.5	168.5	-	-
06/25/25 2025	Liberty	-	@	Valkyries	-	-9.5	162.5	-	-
06/22/25 2025	Liberty	-	@	Storm	-	+3.5	160.5	-	-
06/19/25	Liberty	81	vs.	Mercury	89	-11.5	163.5	+8	O 170 +6.5
2025	ORtg: 99.7 DRtg: 109.5 Pace: 81.3			ORtg: 109.5 DRtg: 99.7 Pace: 81.3
06/17/25	Liberty	86	vs.	Dream	81	-8.0	162.5	-5	O 167 +4.5
2025	ORtg: 111.3 DRtg: 104.8 Pace: 77.3			ORtg: 104.8 DRtg: 111.3 Pace: 77.3
06/14/25	Liberty	88	@	Fever	102	-3.5	170.0	+14	O 190 +20.0
2025	ORtg: 106.5 DRtg: 123.4 Pace: 82.6			ORtg: 123.4 DRtg: 106.5 Pace: 82.6
06/10/25	Liberty	85	vs.	Sky	66	-16.5	163.5	-19	U 151 -12.5
2025	ORtg: 107.3 DRtg: 83.3 Pace: 79.2			ORtg: 83.3 DRtg: 107.3 Pace: 79.2
06/05/25	Liberty	86	@	Mystics	78	-13.0	160.0	-8	O 164 +4.0
2025	ORtg: 110.4 DRtg: 100.1 Pace: 77.9			ORtg: 100.1 DRtg: 110.4 Pace: 77.9
06/01/25	Liberty	100	vs.	Sun	52	-18.5	164.5	-48	U 152 -12.5
2025	ORtg: 134.4 DRtg: 69.9 Pace: 74.4			ORtg: 69.9 DRtg: 134.4 Pace: 74.4
05/30/25	Liberty	85	@	Mystics	63	-8.0	164.0	-22	U 148 -16.0
2025	ORtg: 107.6 DRtg: 79.8 Pace: 79.0			ORtg: 79.8 DRtg: 107.6 Pace: 79.0
05/29/25	Liberty	82	vs.	Valkyries	77	-15.0	164.5	-5	U 159 -5.5
2025	ORtg: 109.5 DRtg: 102.8 Pace: 74.9			ORtg: 102.8 DRtg: 109.5 Pace: 74.9
05/27/25	Liberty	95	vs.	Valkyries	67	-17.5	162.5	-28	U 162 -0.5
2025	ORtg: 116.5 DRtg: 82.1 Pace: 81.6			ORtg: 82.1 DRtg: 116.5 Pace: 81.6
05/24/25	Liberty	90	@	Fever	88	-4.0	173.5	-2	O 178 +4.5
2025	ORtg: 108.3 DRtg: 105.9 Pace: 83.1			ORtg: 105.9 DRtg: 108.3 Pace: 83.1

Away Games Avg (4 games)		87.3	-	-	82.8	-7.1	166.9	-4.5 -2.6	O 170.0 +3.1
	ORtg: 108.2 DRtg: 102.3 Pace: 80.7			ORtg: 102.3 DRtg: 108.2 Pace: 80.7

All Games Avg (10 games)		87.8	-	-	76.3	-11.6	164.9	-11.5 -0.1	U 164.1 -0.8
	ORtg: 111.1 DRtg: 96.2 Pace: 79.1			ORtg: 96.2 DRtg: 111.1 Pace: 79.1

Storm Schedule Follow global filters

Date	Team	Points		Opponent	Opp Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
06/27/25 2025	Storm	-	vs.	Sun	-	-19.0	156.5	-	-
06/24/25 2025	Storm	-	vs.	Fever	-	-3.0	167.0	-	-
06/22/25 2025	Storm	-	vs.	Liberty	-	-3.5	160.5	-	-
06/20/25	Storm	90	@	Aces	83	-2.5	160.0	-7	O 173 +13.0
2025	ORtg: 119.5 DRtg: 110.2 Pace: 75.3			ORtg: 110.2 DRtg: 119.5 Pace: 75.3
06/17/25	Storm	98	@	Sparks	67	-9.0	155.0	-31	O 165 +10.0
2025	ORtg: 119.2 DRtg: 81.5 Pace: 82.2			ORtg: 81.5 DRtg: 119.2 Pace: 82.2
06/14/25	Storm	70	@	Valkyries	76	-10.0	155.0	+6	U 146 -9.0
2025	ORtg: 90.4 DRtg: 98.1 Pace: 77.4			ORtg: 98.1 DRtg: 90.4 Pace: 77.4
06/11/25	Storm	94	vs.	Lynx	84	+3.5	155.0	-10	O 178 +23.0
2025	ORtg: 124.6 DRtg: 111.4 Pace: 75.4			ORtg: 111.4 DRtg: 124.6 Pace: 75.4
06/07/25	Storm	89	@	Mercury	77	-5.5	156.0	-12	O 166 +10.0
2025	ORtg: 120.7 DRtg: 104.4 Pace: 73.8			ORtg: 104.4 DRtg: 120.7 Pace: 73.8
06/03/25	Storm	83	vs.	Wings	77	-10.5	166.0	-6	U 160 -6.0
2025	ORtg: 100.4 DRtg: 93.2 Pace: 82.7			ORtg: 93.2 DRtg: 100.4 Pace: 82.7
06/01/25	Storm	70	vs.	Aces	75	+3.0	161.0	+5	U 145 -16.0
2025	ORtg: 89.6 DRtg: 96.0 Pace: 78.2			ORtg: 96.0 DRtg: 89.6 Pace: 78.2
05/30/25	Storm	87	vs.	Dream	94	-5.0	156.5	+7	O 181 +24.5
2025	ORtg: 107.6 DRtg: 116.3 Pace: 80.8			ORtg: 116.3 DRtg: 107.6 Pace: 80.8
05/27/25	Storm	77	@	Lynx	82	+7.0	156.0	+5	O 159 +3.0
2025	ORtg: 102.9 DRtg: 109.6 Pace: 74.8			ORtg: 109.6 DRtg: 102.9 Pace: 74.8
05/25/25	Storm	102	vs.	Aces	82	+5.0	158.0	-20	O 184 +26.0
2025	ORtg: 127.5 DRtg: 102.5 Pace: 80.0			ORtg: 102.5 DRtg: 127.5 Pace: 80.0

Home Games Avg (5 games)		87.2	-	-	82.4	-0.8	159.3	-4.8 +4.0	O 169.6 +10.3
	ORtg: 109.9 DRtg: 103.9 Pace: 79.4			ORtg: 103.9 DRtg: 109.9 Pace: 79.4

All Games Avg (10 games)		86.0	-	-	79.7	-2.4	157.9	-6.3 +3.9	O 165.7 +7.9
	ORtg: 110.2 DRtg: 102.3 Pace: 78.1			ORtg: 102.3 DRtg: 110.2 Pace: 78.1

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On / Off Court

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Records

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Notable Trends

The Liberty are 83.3% (5-1) to the over away

The Liberty are 20% (1-4) (L30 days) against the spread away

The Liberty are 80% (4-1) (L30 days) to the over away

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Storm (Home)

The Storm are 64.3% (9-5) against the spread

The Storm are 57.1% (4-3) against the spread at home

The Storm are 60% (6-4) against the spread as a fav

The Storm are 50% (2-2) against the spread as a home fav

The Storm are 57.1% (8-6) to the over

The Storm are 57.1% (4-3) to the over at home

The Storm are 50% (5-5) to the over as a fav

The Storm are 50% (2-2) to the over as a home fav

The Storm are 66.7% (8-4) (L30 days) against the spread

The Storm are 57.1% (4-3) (L30 days) against the spread at home

The Storm are 62.5% (5-3) (L30 days) against the spread as a fav

The Storm are 50% (2-2) (L30 days) against the spread as a home fav

The Storm are 66.7% (8-4) (L30 days) to the over

The Storm are 57.1% (4-3) (L30 days) to the over at home

The Storm are 62.5% (5-3) (L30 days) to the over as a fav

The Storm are 50% (2-2) (L30 days) to the over as a home fav

Liberty (Away)

The Liberty are 46.2% (6-7) against the spread

The Liberty are 33.3% (2-4) against the spread away

The Liberty are 0% (0-1) against the spread as a dog

The Liberty are 0% (0-1) against the spread as an away dog

The Liberty are 61.5% (8-5) to the over

The Liberty are 83.3% (5-1) to the over away

The Liberty are 100% (1-0) to the over as a dog

The Liberty are 100% (1-0) to the over as an away dog

The Liberty are 36.4% (4-7) (L30 days) against the spread

The Liberty are 20% (1-4) (L30 days) against the spread away

The Liberty are 0% (0-1) (L30 days) against the spread as a dog

The Liberty are 0% (0-1) (L30 days) against the spread as an away dog

The Liberty are 54.5% (6-5) (L30 days) to the over

The Liberty are 80% (4-1) (L30 days) to the over away

The Liberty are 100% (1-0) (L30 days) to the over as a dog

The Liberty are 100% (1-0) (L30 days) to the over as an away dog

Past Matchups (Last 2 Seasons, Max 10) Follow global filters

Date	Team	Pts		Opponent	Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
09/05/24	Storm	70	@	Liberty	77	+8.0	165.0	+7	U 147 -18.0
2024	ORtg: 93.4 DRtg: 102.7 Pace: 75.0			ORtg: 102.7 DRtg: 93.4 Pace: 75.0
08/30/24	Storm	85	vs.	Liberty	98	+3.5	162.5	+13	O 183 +20.5
2024	ORtg: 117.7 DRtg: 135.7 Pace: 72.2			ORtg: 135.7 DRtg: 117.7 Pace: 72.2
05/20/24	Storm	63	@	Liberty	74	+13.5	166.0	+11	U 137 -29.0
2024	ORtg: 83.1 DRtg: 97.6 Pace: 75.8			ORtg: 97.6 DRtg: 83.1 Pace: 75.8

Storm as Home (1 games)		85.0	-	-	98.0	+3.5	162.5	+13.0 -9.5	O 183.0 +20.5
	ORtg: 117.7 DRtg: 135.7 Pace: 72.2			ORtg: 135.7 DRtg: 117.7 Pace: 72.2

All Games Avg (3 games)		72.7	-	-	83.0	+8.3	164.5	+10.3 -2.0	U 155.7 -8.8
	ORtg: 98.1 DRtg: 112.0 Pace: 74.3			ORtg: 112.0 DRtg: 98.1 Pace: 74.3

Algorithm	Model Side
Schedule Analysis Schedule strength and fatigue factors.	Neutral
Differentials Normalized z-scored differentials.	Neutral
Basic Stat Comp Basic 3-stat regression.	Neutral
Net Ratings + Market Analysis Simple but Effective - 57.3% High-Confidence Win Rate	Neutral
Cover Summary	No Bet
Opponent Defense Opponent and defensive metrics.	Neutral
Norms and Averages Best Totals Model - 60.1% High-Confidence Win Rate	Neutral
Total Summary	No Bet
OVERALL	No Spread Edge \| No Total Edge

WNBA Matchups: Predictions, Odds & Betting Trends

Final: 79 – 89 New York Liberty @ Seattle Storm window.TMB_PAGE_CONTEXT = { page: 'matchup', sport: "wnba", away_team: "New York Liberty", home_team: "Seattle Storm", game_date: null };

Odds Full WNBA odds board

Injury Report NYLNo report SEANo report

Notes

Liberty

Situational Factor(s)

Baller System(s)

Storm

Situational Factor(s)

Baller System(s)

Model Side

Model Total

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Algorithm Breakdown

Filters

Schedules

Liberty Schedule Follow global filters

Storm Schedule Follow global filters

Team Comparison Stats Loading...

On / Off Court

Next Player Up

Records

Notable Trends

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Storm (Home)

Liberty (Away)

Past Matchups (Last 2 Seasons, Max 10) Follow global filters

Final: 79 – 89
New York Liberty @ Seattle Storm