WNBA Matchups: Predictions, Odds & Betting Trends

Final: 70 – 76
Seattle Storm @ Golden State Valkyries

Storm: 6-4 (60.0%) | Market Rating: +2.29

Valkyries: 4-5 (44.4%) | Market Rating: -2.52 | Home Court: +0.2 pts

Line: +10.0

Total: 155.0

Open: +9.5

Open: 158.5

Team totals: Storm 83.5 · Valkyries 72.5

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Injury Report SEANo report GSVNo report

Notes

Storm

Situational Factor(s)

Coming off a win as a dog (letdown)

Rest disadvantage

Well rested (two or more days of rest)

Baller System(s)

Back team off a good shooting performance (over 55 FG%)

Back team w/ more rest and less road games in previous 5 games

Fade home team off OT win

Play over on team off OT win

Play over on team that has had a high assist-to-turnover ratio for multiple games

Valkyries

Situational Factor(s)

Coming off a win as a dog (letdown)

Coming off an overtime game

Rest advantage

Well rested (two or more days of rest)

Baller System(s)

Back a dog off a win as a dog with more rest

Back double digit dog off a win

Back team off more rest and has more rest in upcoming game than opponent

Fade rusty road team off 4+ days rest

Baller Index Our Exclusive WNBA Baller Index is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions essentially look for teams that have over- or under-performed, in terms of points scored, relative to what would be expected based on their underlying metrics and who might be in for regression. While it does not factor in injuries, situational spots, or historic matchups into account, it can be a good place to start when thinking about a particular matchup.

Model Side

Storm

55.63% probability

Model Total

No clear side

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Filters

Team Comparison Stats, Records and the sections tied to them follow these filters; each team's Schedule and Historical Matchups follow them when their switch is on.

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Schedules

Storm Schedule Follow global filters

Date	Team	Points		Opponent	Opp Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
06/20/25 2025	Storm	-	@	Aces	-	-2.5	160.0	-	-
06/17/25 2025	Storm	-	@	Sparks	-	-9.0	155.0	-	-
06/14/25 2025	Storm	-	@	Valkyries	-	-10.0	155.0	-	-
06/11/25	Storm	94	vs.	Lynx	84	+3.5	155.0	-10	O 178 +23.0
2025	ORtg: 124.6 DRtg: 111.4 Pace: 75.4			ORtg: 111.4 DRtg: 124.6 Pace: 75.4
06/07/25	Storm	89	@	Mercury	77	-5.5	156.0	-12	O 166 +10.0
2025	ORtg: 120.7 DRtg: 104.4 Pace: 73.8			ORtg: 104.4 DRtg: 120.7 Pace: 73.8
06/03/25	Storm	83	vs.	Wings	77	-10.5	166.0	-6	U 160 -6.0
2025	ORtg: 100.4 DRtg: 93.2 Pace: 82.7			ORtg: 93.2 DRtg: 100.4 Pace: 82.7
06/01/25	Storm	70	vs.	Aces	75	+3.0	161.0	+5	U 145 -16.0
2025	ORtg: 89.6 DRtg: 96.0 Pace: 78.2			ORtg: 96.0 DRtg: 89.6 Pace: 78.2
05/30/25	Storm	87	vs.	Dream	94	-5.0	156.5	+7	O 181 +24.5
2025	ORtg: 107.6 DRtg: 116.3 Pace: 80.8			ORtg: 116.3 DRtg: 107.6 Pace: 80.8
05/27/25	Storm	77	@	Lynx	82	+7.0	156.0	+5	O 159 +3.0
2025	ORtg: 102.9 DRtg: 109.6 Pace: 74.8			ORtg: 109.6 DRtg: 102.9 Pace: 74.8
05/25/25	Storm	102	vs.	Aces	82	+5.0	158.0	-20	O 184 +26.0
2025	ORtg: 127.5 DRtg: 102.5 Pace: 80.0			ORtg: 102.5 DRtg: 127.5 Pace: 80.0
05/23/25	Storm	77	vs.	Mercury	70	-6.0	157.5	-7	U 147 -10.5
2025	ORtg: 97.4 DRtg: 88.5 Pace: 79.1			ORtg: 88.5 DRtg: 97.4 Pace: 79.1
05/19/25	Storm	79	@	Wings	71	-3.5	166.0	-8	U 150 -16.0
2025	ORtg: 98.6 DRtg: 88.6 Pace: 80.1			ORtg: 88.6 DRtg: 98.6 Pace: 80.1
05/17/25	Storm	59	@	Mercury	81	-6.0	156.0	+22	U 140 -16.0
2025	ORtg: 77.5 DRtg: 106.4 Pace: 76.1			ORtg: 106.4 DRtg: 77.5 Pace: 76.1

Away Games Avg (4 games)		76.0	-	-	77.8	-2.0	158.5	+1.8 -3.8	U 153.8 -4.8
	ORtg: 99.9 DRtg: 102.3 Pace: 76.2			ORtg: 102.3 DRtg: 99.9 Pace: 76.2

All Games Avg (10 games)		81.7	-	-	79.3	-1.8	158.8	-2.4 +0.6	O 161.0 +2.2
	ORtg: 104.7 DRtg: 101.7 Pace: 78.1			ORtg: 101.7 DRtg: 104.7 Pace: 78.1

Valkyries Schedule Follow global filters

Date	Team	Points		Opponent	Opp Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
06/19/25 2025	Valkyries	-	vs.	Fever	-	+10.5	164.0	-	-
06/17/25 2025	Valkyries	-	@	Wings	-	+3.5	164.5	-	-
06/14/25 2025	Valkyries	-	vs.	Storm	-	+10.0	155.0	-	-
06/09/25	Valkyries	89	@	Sparks	81 OT	+7.0	163.5	-8	O 170 +6.5
2025	ORtg: 104.5 DRtg: 95.1 Pace: 77.1			ORtg: 95.1 DRtg: 104.5 Pace: 77.1
06/07/25	Valkyries	95	vs.	Aces	68	+12.0	160.5	-27	O 163 +2.5
2025	ORtg: 120.9 DRtg: 86.6 Pace: 78.5			ORtg: 86.6 DRtg: 120.9 Pace: 78.5
06/05/25	Valkyries	77	@	Mercury	86	+6.0	157.0	+9	O 163 +6.0
2025	ORtg: 97.4 DRtg: 108.8 Pace: 79.1			ORtg: 108.8 DRtg: 97.4 Pace: 79.1
06/01/25	Valkyries	75	vs.	Lynx	86	+12.0	157.5	+11	O 161 +3.5
2025	ORtg: 99.2 DRtg: 113.8 Pace: 75.6			ORtg: 113.8 DRtg: 99.2 Pace: 75.6
05/29/25	Valkyries	77	@	Liberty	82	+15.0	164.5	+5	U 159 -5.5
2025	ORtg: 102.8 DRtg: 109.5 Pace: 74.9			ORtg: 109.5 DRtg: 102.8 Pace: 74.9
05/27/25	Valkyries	67	@	Liberty	95	+17.5	162.5	+28	U 162 -0.5
2025	ORtg: 82.1 DRtg: 116.5 Pace: 81.6			ORtg: 116.5 DRtg: 82.1 Pace: 81.6
05/23/25	Valkyries	82	@	Sparks	73	+10.5	160.5	-9	U 155 -5.5
2025	ORtg: 104.2 DRtg: 92.8 Pace: 78.7			ORtg: 92.8 DRtg: 104.2 Pace: 78.7
05/21/25	Valkyries	76	vs.	Mystics	74	+4.5	162.0	-2	U 150 -12.0
2025	ORtg: 92.2 DRtg: 89.8 Pace: 82.4			ORtg: 89.8 DRtg: 92.2 Pace: 82.4
05/16/25	Valkyries	67	vs.	Sparks	84	+5.5	163.0	+17	U 151 -12.0
2025	ORtg: 86.5 DRtg: 108.5 Pace: 77.4			ORtg: 108.5 DRtg: 86.5 Pace: 77.4

Home Games Avg (4 games)		78.3	-	-	78.0	+8.5	160.8	-0.3 +8.8	U 156.3 -4.5
	ORtg: 99.7 DRtg: 99.6 Pace: 78.5			ORtg: 99.6 DRtg: 99.7 Pace: 78.5

All Games Avg (9 games)		78.3	-	-	81.0	+10.0	161.2	+2.7 +7.3	U 159.3 -1.9
	ORtg: 98.9 DRtg: 102.4 Pace: 78.4			ORtg: 102.4 DRtg: 98.9 Pace: 78.4

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Notable Trends

The Valkyries are 70% (7-3) against the spread

The Valkyries are 80% (4-1) against the spread at home

The Valkyries are 70% (7-3) against the spread as a dog

The Valkyries are 80% (4-1) against the spread as a home dog

The Valkyries are 70% (7-3) (L30 days) against the spread

The Valkyries are 80% (4-1) (L30 days) against the spread at home

The Valkyries are 70% (7-3) (L30 days) against the spread as a dog

The Valkyries are 80% (4-1) (L30 days) against the spread as a home dog

The Storm are 71.4% (5-2) to the under as a fav

The Storm are 75% (3-1) to the under as an away fav

The Storm are 71.4% (5-2) (L30 days) to the under as a fav

The Storm are 75% (3-1) (L30 days) to the under as an away fav

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Valkyries (Home)

The Valkyries are 70% (7-3) against the spread

The Valkyries are 80% (4-1) against the spread at home

The Valkyries are 70% (7-3) against the spread as a dog

The Valkyries are 80% (4-1) against the spread as a home dog

The Valkyries are 60% (6-4) to the under

The Valkyries are 60% (3-2) to the under at home

The Valkyries are 60% (6-4) to the under as a dog

The Valkyries are 60% (3-2) to the under as a home dog

The Valkyries are 70% (7-3) (L30 days) against the spread

The Valkyries are 80% (4-1) (L30 days) against the spread at home

The Valkyries are 70% (7-3) (L30 days) against the spread as a dog

The Valkyries are 80% (4-1) (L30 days) against the spread as a home dog

The Valkyries are 60% (6-4) (L30 days) to the under

The Valkyries are 60% (3-2) (L30 days) to the under at home

The Valkyries are 60% (6-4) (L30 days) to the under as a dog

The Valkyries are 60% (3-2) (L30 days) to the under as a home dog

Storm (Away)

The Storm are 54.5% (6-5) against the spread

The Storm are 60% (3-2) against the spread away

The Storm are 42.9% (3-4) against the spread as a fav

The Storm are 50% (2-2) against the spread as an away fav

The Storm are 54.5% (6-5) to the under

The Storm are 60% (3-2) to the under away

The Storm are 71.4% (5-2) to the under as a fav

The Storm are 75% (3-1) to the under as an away fav

The Storm are 54.5% (6-5) (L30 days) against the spread

The Storm are 60% (3-2) (L30 days) against the spread away

The Storm are 42.9% (3-4) (L30 days) against the spread as a fav

The Storm are 50% (2-2) (L30 days) against the spread as an away fav

The Storm are 54.5% (6-5) (L30 days) to the under

The Storm are 60% (3-2) (L30 days) to the under away

The Storm are 71.4% (5-2) (L30 days) to the under as a fav

The Storm are 75% (3-1) (L30 days) to the under as an away fav

Past Matchups (Last 2 Seasons, Max 10) Follow global filters

No previous matchups between these teams in the last 2 seasons.

Algorithm	Model Side
Schedule Analysis Schedule strength and fatigue factors.	Valkyries (2x)
Differentials Normalized z-scored differentials.	Neutral
Basic Stat Comp Basic 3-stat regression.	Storm (2x)
Net Ratings + Market Analysis Simple but Effective - 57.3% High-Confidence Win Rate	Storm (2x)
Cover Summary	Storm
Opponent Defense Opponent and defensive metrics.	Neutral
Norms and Averages Best Totals Model - 60.1% High-Confidence Win Rate	Neutral
Total Summary	No Bet
OVERALL	Storm \| No Total Edge

WNBA Matchups: Predictions, Odds & Betting Trends

Final: 70 – 76 Seattle Storm @ Golden State Valkyries window.TMB_PAGE_CONTEXT = { page: 'matchup', sport: "wnba", away_team: "Seattle Storm", home_team: "Golden State Valkyries", game_date: null };

Odds Full WNBA odds board

Injury Report SEANo report GSVNo report

Notes

Storm

Situational Factor(s)

Baller System(s)

Valkyries

Situational Factor(s)

Baller System(s)

Model Side

Model Total

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Algorithm Breakdown

Filters

Schedules

Storm Schedule Follow global filters

Valkyries Schedule Follow global filters

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Records

Notable Trends

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Valkyries (Home)

Storm (Away)

Past Matchups (Last 2 Seasons, Max 10) Follow global filters

Final: 70 – 76
Seattle Storm @ Golden State Valkyries