MLB Matchups: Predictions, Odds & Betting Trends

Final: 9 – 20
Milwaukee Brewers @ New York Yankees

Brewers: 0-1 (0.0%) | Nestor Cortes (L): 0-0 (0.0%)

Yankees: 1-0 (100.0%) | Max Fried (L): 0-0 (0.0%)

Run line

Team Total

Total

Brewers

+140

+1.5 (-149)

o3.5 (-134)

8.5

Yankees

-165

-1.5 (+125)

o4.5 (-132)

Open

Brewers

+131

+1.5 (-165)

o3.5 (-134)

8.5

Yankees

-154

-1.5 (+139)

o4.5 (-132)

Odds Full MLB odds board

Want to see only your books? Want to see where the sharp action is coming in? Become a member or log in.

Games
Conversions

Loading game odds...

Injury Report MILNo report NYYNo report

Notes — no active systems for this matchup.

Baller Index Our Exclusive MLB Baller Index is a dynamic tool that adapts to MLB's latest trends, dynamically adjusting each team’s Starting Pitcher, Bullpen, and Team Batting ratings based on current performances and historical data. It factors in current form—reflecting recent player and team performances—and accounts for positive or negative regression to balance out extreme fluctuations. Compare our Matchup Rating System with the game line to see where the model and the market disagree. Regular season only.

Brewers

N. Cortes	Unlock with Baller Access
Bullpen:	Unlock with Baller Access
Team Batting:	Unlock with Baller Access
Matchup:	Unlock with Baller Access

Yankees

M. Fried	Unlock with Baller Access
Bullpen:	Unlock with Baller Access
Team Batting:	Unlock with Baller Access
Matchup:	Unlock with Baller Access

Regression Analysis The Regression Analysis section is a strictly rule-based analysis designed to simplify and interpret what the data indicates. This section identifies potential regression signals and organizes them into a clear breakdown for each side. The goal isn't to tell you what to bet—it's to provide context.

By translating the data into plain language, this can help you understand how regression and matchup factors interact. These signals highlight tendencies, not guarantees, and are most effective when used alongside the rest of the matchup page for full context.

Loading regression analysis...

Filters

Team Comparison Stats, Records and the sections tied to them follow these filters; each team's Schedule and Historical Matchups follow them when their switch is on.

Loading filters...

Schedules

Brewers Schedule Follow global filters

Date	Team Starter	Runs		Opponent Starter	Opp Runs	Line	Total
03/31/25 2025	Brewers Elvin Rodriguez (R)	-	vs.	Royals Kris Bubic (L)	-	-112	8.5
03/30/25 2025	Brewers Aaron Civale (R)	-	@	Yankees Marcus Stroman (R)	-	+120	8.5
03/29/25 2025	Brewers Nestor Cortes (L)	-	@	Yankees Max Fried (L)	-	+140	8.5
03/27/25 2025	Brewers Freddy Peralta (R)	2	@	Yankees Carlos Rodon (L)	4	+124	7.5
Last season · shown for reference, not in the averages
10/03/24 2024	Brewers Tobias Myers (R)	2	vs.	Mets Jose Quintana (L)	4	-122	7.5
10/02/24 2024	Brewers Frankie Montas (R)	5	vs.	Mets Sean Manaea (L)	3	-126	7.5
10/01/24 2024	Brewers Freddy Peralta (R)	4	vs.	Mets Luis Severino (R)	8	-146	7.5
09/29/24 2024	Brewers Colin Rea (R)	0	vs.	Mets David Peterson (L)	5	+124	8.0
09/28/24 2024	Brewers Jared Koenig (L)	6	vs.	Mets Jose Quintana (L)	0	-104	8.5
09/27/24 2024	Brewers Frankie Montas (R)	8	vs.	Mets Sean Manaea (L)	4	-102	7.5
09/26/24 2024	Brewers Aaron Civale (R)	5	@	Pirates Mitch Keller (R)	2	-116	7.5
09/25/24 2024	Brewers Freddy Peralta (R)	1	@	Pirates Luis Ortiz (R)	2	-146	7.5
09/24/24 2024	Brewers Tobias Myers (R)	7	@	Pirates Bailey Falter (L)	2	-142	8.0

Away Games Avg (1 game this season)		2.0	-	-	4.0	+124	7.5

All Games Avg (1 game this season)		2.0	-	-	4.0	+124	7.5

Yankees Schedule Follow global filters

Date	Team Starter	Runs		Opponent Starter	Opp Runs	Line	Total
04/01/25 2025	Yankees Will Warren (R)	-	vs.	Diamondbacks Corbin Burnes (R)	-	-108	8.5
03/30/25 2025	Yankees Marcus Stroman (R)	-	vs.	Brewers Aaron Civale (R)	-	-142	8.5
03/29/25 2025	Yankees Max Fried (L)	-	vs.	Brewers Nestor Cortes (L)	-	-165	8.5
03/27/25 2025	Yankees Carlos Rodon (L)	4	vs.	Brewers Freddy Peralta (R)	2	-146	7.5
Last season · shown for reference, not in the averages
10/30/24 2024	Yankees Gerrit Cole (R)	6	vs.	Dodgers Jack Flaherty (R)	7	-144	8.5
10/29/24 2024	Yankees Luis Gil (R)	11	vs.	Dodgers Ben Casparius (R)	4	-136	8.5
10/28/24 2024	Yankees Clarke Schmidt (R)	2	vs.	Dodgers Walker Buehler (R)	4	-144	8.5
10/26/24 2024	Yankees Carlos Rodon (L)	2	@	Dodgers Yoshinobu Yamamoto (R)	4	+118	8.5
10/25/24 2024	Yankees Gerrit Cole (R)	3	@	Dodgers Jack Flaherty (R)	6	+106	8.5
10/19/24 2024	Yankees Carlos Rodon (L)	5	@	Guardians Tanner Bibee (R)	2	-116	7.5
10/18/24 2024	Yankees Luis Gil (R)	8	@	Guardians Gavin Williams (R)	6	-120	7.5
10/17/24 2024	Yankees Clarke Schmidt (R)	5	@	Guardians Matthew Boyd (L)	7	-118	7.5
10/15/24 2024	Yankees Gerrit Cole (R)	6	vs.	Guardians Tanner Bibee (R)	3	-172	7.0

Home Games Avg (1 game this season)		4.0	-	-	2.0	-146	7.5

All Games Avg (1 game this season)		4.0	-	-	2.0	-146	7.5

Team Comparison Stats Loading...

Loading team comparison stats...

Records

Pitch Mix vs. Bats

Nestor Cortes's mix vs. NYY bats

Nestor Cortes's pitches			NYY hitters vs. that pitch type, from all pitchers
Pitch	Usage	Velo	Whiff%	Chase%	BA	xBA	xwOBA	xSLG	xISO	Hard%	Barrel%	Avg EV
4-Seam Fastball	38.1%	90.1	23.5% 27th	22.4% 8th	.249 16th	.348 5th	.363 3rd	.701 1st	.353 1st	53.8% 2nd	14.2% 2nd	93.2 2nd
Cutter	34.6%	86.7	25.4% 27th	25.1% 6th	.299 5th	.343 5th	.391 1st	.678 1st	.335 1st	43.8% 6th	14.7% 1st	89.5 9th
Changeup	13.9%	82.2	29.2% 9th	30.6% 3rd	.255 2nd	.310 19th	.294 9th	.498 18th	.188 16th	35.0% 14th	6.5% 22nd	87.3 6th
Sweeper	13.4%	78.1	29.4% 11th	26.1% 3rd	.241 6th	.320 9th	.313 2nd	.595 4th	.275 3rd	35.3% 8th	10.8% 4th	87.4 8th
Sinker	0.2%	90.7	15.0% 23rd	25.8% 21st	.309 3rd	.356 1st	.379 1st	.599 1st	.243 1st	49.2% 2nd	9.7% 1st	90.5 2nd
Whole mix, by usage			25.7% 24th	25.0% 4th	.266 2nd	.337 4th	.356 1st	.651 1st	.313 1st	45.3% 3rd	12.8% 1st	90.3 3rd

2025 season totals. Usage and Velo are Nestor Cortes's; every other column is NYY's active hitters against that pitch type from every pitcher, not against him. (n) is NYY's place among the 30 clubs: 1 and green hit the pitch best, red is good for the pitcher.

Max Fried's mix vs. MIL bats

Max Fried's pitches			MIL hitters vs. that pitch type, from all pitchers
Pitch	Usage	Velo	Whiff%	Chase%	BA	xBA	xwOBA	xSLG	xISO	Hard%	Barrel%	Avg EV
Cutter	28.3%	93.6	20.5% 10th	27.9% 23rd	.281 13th	.307 27th	.347 20th	.536 24th	.229 17th	45.6% 4th	9.6% 15th	89.8 5th
Sinker	17.8%	94.1	12.6% 8th	25.3% 16th	.270 23rd	.312 25th	.321 29th	.456 28th	.144 29th	45.3% 16th	5.6% 24th	89.0 20th
Curveball	17.4%	75.3	25.9% 3rd	22.6% 1st	.231 14th	.337 11th	.259 24th	.513 22nd	.176 26th	39.5% 12th	5.9% 26th	88.1 11th
4-Seam Fastball	12.2%	95.9	18.4% 2nd	25.7% 25th	.265 3rd	.328 21st	.340 19th	.552 29th	.224 30th	47.0% 20th	8.5% 30th	90.8 20th
Sweeper	11.5%	81.5	28.9% 8th	32.4% 27th	.203 22nd	.280 27th	.242 28th	.451 29th	.171 29th	28.3% 26th	6.8% 24th	84.1 29th
Changeup	11.2%	85.4	27.3% 6th	30.2% 2nd	.235 14th	.303 23rd	.296 8th	.494 21st	.191 12th	31.0% 27th	8.7% 6th	84.4 30th
Slider	1.7%	85.5	31.1% 7th	31.6% 14th	.237 11th	.317 19th	.294 14th	.513 26th	.196 26th	37.7% 18th	6.7% 29th	86.9 26th
Whole mix, by usage			21.7% 6th	27.1% 17th	.254 15th	.312 29th	.308 26th	.505 30th	.193 29th	40.9% 10th	7.6% 22nd	88.2 21st

2025 season totals. Usage and Velo are Max Fried's; every other column is MIL's active hitters against that pitch type from every pitcher, not against him. (n) is MIL's place among the 30 clubs: 1 and green hit the pitch best, red is good for the pitcher.

Starting Pitchers Recent Performance

Nestor Cortes Last 5 Starts

	H	A	Line	Total	IP	NP	K	BB	Hits	HR	ER	Runs	Opp Starter
9/18	SEA [ 1 ]	NYY [ 2 ]	-120	7.5	6	97	6	3	4	0	0	0	Bryce Miller (R)
9/12	NYY [ 2 ]	BOS [ 1 ]	-172	8.5	5	92	9	3	3	1	1	1	Cooper Criswell (R)
9/1	NYY [ 7 ]	STL [ 14 ]	-205	9	4	80	2	1	9	1	5	5	Miles Mikolas (R)
8/26	WSN [ 2 ]	NYY [ 5 ]	-184	9	6.67	91	5	2	4	1	1	1	Mitchell Parker (L)
8/21	NYY [ 8 ]	CLE [ 1 ]	-196	8.5	7	104	4	0	3	0	0	0	Joey Cantillo (L)
Averages:					5.73	92.8	5.2	1.8	4.6	0.6	1.4	1.4

Max Fried Last 5 Starts

	H	A	Line	Total	IP	NP	K	BB	Hits	HR	ER	Runs	Opp Starter
10/2	SDP [ 5 ]	ATL [ 4 ]	-106	6.5	2	45	2	0	8	1	5	5	Joe Musgrove (R)
9/27	ATL [ 3 ]	KCR [ 0 ]	-174	7.5	8.67	98	9	2	3	0	0	0	Brady Singer (R)
9/21	MIA [ 2 ]	ATL [ 6 ]	-235	7.5	6	100	6	1	5	0	1	2	Adam Oller (R)
9/16	ATL [ 0 ]	LAD [ 9 ]	-100	7.5	6	98	7	3	2	0	3	3	Yoshinobu Yamamoto (R)
9/11	WSN [ 5 ]	ATL [ 1 ]	-176	7.5	6	94	6	0	11	1	4	4	Jake Irvin (R)
Averages:					5.73	87	6	1.2	5.8	0.4	2.6	2.8

Bullpen Usage (Last 3 Days)

MIL Bullpen — Last 3 Days

Pitcher	3/26	3/27	3/28	App	IP	NP	K	BB	H	ER
Bryan Hudson	·	1.0 (24)	·	1	1.0	24	1	2	0	0
Tyler Alexander	·	1.0 (16)	·	1	1.0	16	1	0	1	0
Jared Koenig	·	0.2 (21)	·	1	0.2	21	0	1	2	2
Joel Payamps	·	0.1 (2)	·	1	0.1	2	0	0	0	0
Team Totals (4 arms used):				4	3.0	63	2	3	3	2

A day reads innings (pitches). NP = number of pitches over the window.

NYY Bullpen — Last 3 Days

Pitcher	3/26	3/27	3/28	App	IP	NP	K	BB	H	ER
Devin Williams	·	1.0 (36)	·	1	1.0	36	2	1	2	1
Luke Weaver	·	1.0 (19)	·	1	1.0	19	2	1	0	0
Mark Leiter	·	1.0 (12)	·	1	1.0	12	2	0	0	0
Tim Hill	·	0.2 (19)	·	1	0.2	19	0	0	1	0
Team Totals (4 arms used):				4	3.2	86	6	2	3	1

A day reads innings (pitches). NP = number of pitches over the window.

Notable Trends

First week of the season: these records include last season.

No notable trends identified for this matchup.

View All Records

Yankees (Home)

The Yankees are 58.4% (104-74) on the moneyline

The Yankees are 56.3% (49-38) on the moneyline as a home fav

The Yankees are 54.6% (95-79-4) to the over

The Yankees are 56.5% (48-37-2) to the over as a home fav

The Yankees are 100% (2-0) (L30 days) on the moneyline

The Yankees are 100% (2-0) (L30 days) on the moneyline as a home fav

The Yankees are 50% (1-1) (L30 days) to the over

The Yankees are 50% (1-1) (L30 days) to the over as a home fav

Brewers (Away)

The Brewers are 56.3% (94-73) on the moneyline

The Brewers are 56.3% (27-21) on the moneyline as an away dog

The Brewers are 53.5% (84-73-10) to the over

The Brewers are 60.4% (29-19) to the over as an away dog

The Brewers are 0% (0-2) (L30 days) on the moneyline

The Brewers are 0% (0-2) (L30 days) on the moneyline as an away dog

The Brewers are 50% (1-1) (L30 days) to the over

The Brewers are 50% (1-1) (L30 days) to the over as an away dog

Past Matchups (Last 7) Follow global filters

Date	Team Starter	Runs		Opponent Starter	Opp Runs	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
03/27/25 2025	Yankees Carlos Rodon (L)	4	vs.	Brewers Freddy Peralta (R)	2	-146	7.5	-2	U 6 -1.5
04/28/24 2024	Yankees Marcus Stroman (R)	15	@	Brewers Tobias Myers (R)	5	-136	8.5	-10	O 20 +11.5
04/27/24 2024	Yankees Carlos Rodon (L)	15	@	Brewers Joe Ross (R)	3	-116	8.5	-12	O 18 +9.5
04/26/24 2024	Yankees Luis Gil (R)	6	@	Brewers Colin Rea (R)	7 F/11	-134	8.5	+1	O 13 +4.5

Yankees as Home (1 games)		4.0	-	-	2.0	-146	7.5	-2.0	U 6.0 -1.5

All Games Avg (4 games)		10.0	-	-	4.3	-132	8.3	-5.8	O 14.3 +6.0

MLB Matchups: Predictions, Odds & Betting Trends

Final: 9 – 20 Milwaukee Brewers @ New York Yankees window.TMB_PAGE_CONTEXT = { page: 'matchup', sport: "mlb", away_team: "Milwaukee Brewers", home_team: "New York Yankees", game_date: "2025-03-29" };

Odds Full MLB odds board

Injury Report MILNo report NYYNo report

Brewers

Yankees

Filters

Schedules

Brewers Schedule Follow global filters

Yankees Schedule Follow global filters

Team Comparison Stats Loading...

Records

Pitch Mix vs. Bats

Starting Pitchers Recent Performance

Bullpen Usage (Last 3 Days)

Notable Trends

View All Records

Yankees (Home)

Brewers (Away)

Past Matchups (Last 7) Follow global filters

Final: 9 – 20
Milwaukee Brewers @ New York Yankees