MLB Matchups: Predictions, Odds & Betting Trends

Final: 3 – 4
Cleveland Guardians @ Kansas City Royals

Guardians: 1-0 (100.0%) | Gavin Williams (R): 0-0 (0.0%)

Royals: 0-1 (0.0%) | Seth Lugo (R): 0-0 (0.0%)

Run line

Team Total

Total

Guardians

+104

+1.5 (-202)

o4.5 (+102)

8.5

Royals

-122

-1.5 (+168)

o4.5 (+109)

Open

Guardians

+105

+1.5 (-206)

o4.5 (+102)

8.5

Royals

-123

-1.5 (+169)

o4.5 (+109)

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Games
Conversions

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Injury Report CLENo report KCNo report

Notes

Guardians

Situational Factor(s)

Game off extra innings

Royals

Situational Factor(s)

Game off extra innings

Baller Index Our Exclusive MLB Baller Index is a dynamic tool that adapts to MLB's latest trends, dynamically adjusting each team’s Starting Pitcher, Bullpen, and Team Batting ratings based on current performances and historical data. It factors in current form—reflecting recent player and team performances—and accounts for positive or negative regression to balance out extreme fluctuations. Compare our Matchup Rating System with the game line to see where the model and the market disagree. Regular season only.

Guardians

G. Williams	Unlock with Baller Access
Bullpen:	Unlock with Baller Access
Team Batting:	Unlock with Baller Access
Matchup:	Unlock with Baller Access

Royals

S. Lugo	Unlock with Baller Access
Bullpen:	Unlock with Baller Access
Team Batting:	Unlock with Baller Access
Matchup:	Unlock with Baller Access

Regression Analysis The Regression Analysis section is a strictly rule-based analysis designed to simplify and interpret what the data indicates. This section identifies potential regression signals and organizes them into a clear breakdown for each side. The goal isn't to tell you what to bet—it's to provide context.

By translating the data into plain language, this can help you understand how regression and matchup factors interact. These signals highlight tendencies, not guarantees, and are most effective when used alongside the rest of the matchup page for full context.

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Filters

Team Comparison Stats, Records and the sections tied to them follow these filters; each team's Schedule and Historical Matchups follow them when their switch is on.

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Schedules

Guardians Schedule Follow global filters

Date	Team Starter	Runs		Opponent Starter	Opp Runs	Line	Total
03/31/25 2025	Guardians Luis Ortiz (R)	-	@	Padres Kyle Hart (L)	-	+110	7.5
03/30/25 2025	Guardians Tanner Bibee (R)	-	@	Royals Michael Wacha (R)	-	-102	7.0
03/29/25 2025	Guardians Gavin Williams (R)	-	@	Royals Seth Lugo (R)	-	+100	9.0
03/27/25 2025	Guardians Ben Lively (R)	7	@	Royals Cole Ragans (L)	4 F/10	+144	8.5
Last season · shown for reference, not in the averages
10/19/24 2024	Guardians Tanner Bibee (R)	2	vs.	Yankees Carlos Rodon (L)	5	-102	7.5
10/18/24 2024	Guardians Gavin Williams (R)	6	vs.	Yankees Luis Gil (R)	8	+102	7.5
10/17/24 2024	Guardians Matthew Boyd (L)	7	vs.	Yankees Clarke Schmidt (R)	5	-100	7.5
10/15/24 2024	Guardians Tanner Bibee (R)	3	@	Yankees Gerrit Cole (R)	6	+144	7.0
10/14/24 2024	Guardians Alex Cobb (R)	2	@	Yankees Carlos Rodon (L)	5	+142	7.5
10/12/24 2024	Guardians Matthew Boyd (L)	7	vs.	Tigers Tarik Skubal (L)	3	+106	6.0
10/10/24 2024	Guardians Tanner Bibee (R)	5	@	Tigers Reese Olson (R)	4	-124	6.5
10/09/24 2024	Guardians Alex Cobb (R)	0	@	Tigers Keider Montero (R)	3	-116	7.5
10/07/24 2024	Guardians Matthew Boyd (L)	0	vs.	Tigers Tarik Skubal (L)	3	+110	6.0

Away Games Avg (1 game this season)		7.0	-	-	4.0	+144	8.5

All Games Avg (1 game this season)		7.0	-	-	4.0	+144	8.5

Royals Schedule Follow global filters

Date	Team Starter	Runs		Opponent Starter	Opp Runs	Line	Total
03/31/25 2025	Royals Kris Bubic (L)	-	@	Brewers Elvin Rodriguez (R)	-	-104	8.5
03/30/25 2025	Royals Michael Wacha (R)	-	vs.	Guardians Tanner Bibee (R)	-	-116	7.0
03/29/25 2025	Royals Seth Lugo (R)	-	vs.	Guardians Gavin Williams (R)	-	-120	9.0
03/27/25 2025	Royals Cole Ragans (L)	4	vs.	Guardians Ben Lively (R)	7 F/10	-172	8.5
Last season · shown for reference, not in the averages
10/10/24 2024	Royals Michael Wacha (R)	1	vs.	Yankees Gerrit Cole (R)	3	+128	8.0
10/09/24 2024	Royals Seth Lugo (R)	2	vs.	Yankees Clarke Schmidt (R)	3	-100	8.0
10/07/24 2024	Royals Cole Ragans (L)	4	@	Yankees Carlos Rodon (L)	2	+128	7.5
10/05/24 2024	Royals Michael Wacha (R)	5	@	Yankees Gerrit Cole (R)	6	+170	7.5
10/02/24 2024	Royals Seth Lugo (R)	2	@	Orioles Zach Eflin (R)	1	+136	7.5
10/01/24 2024	Royals Cole Ragans (L)	1	@	Orioles Corbin Burnes (R)	0	+130	6.5
09/29/24 2024	Royals Alec Marsh (R)	4	@	Braves Charlie Morton (R)	2	+176	8.5
09/28/24 2024	Royals Seth Lugo (R)	1	@	Braves Reynaldo Lopez (R)	2	+166	7.5
09/27/24 2024	Royals Brady Singer (R)	0	@	Braves Max Fried (L)	3	+146	7.5

Home Games Avg (1 game this season)		4.0	-	-	7.0	-172	8.5

All Games Avg (1 game this season)		4.0	-	-	7.0	-172	8.5

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Records

Pitch Mix vs. Bats

Gavin Williams's mix vs. KCR bats

Gavin Williams's pitches			KCR hitters vs. that pitch type, from all pitchers
Pitch	Usage	Velo	Whiff%	Chase%	BA	xBA	xwOBA	xSLG	xISO	Hard%	Barrel%	Avg EV
4-Seam Fastball	36.9%	96.6	18.9% 3rd	23.0% 11th	.247 19th	.327 22nd	.341 18th	.585 24th	.258 23rd	47.7% 17th	10.6% 22nd	91.0 18th
Knuckle Curve	22.1%	82.0	27.4% 3rd	32.7% 14th	.257 5th	.342 16th	.264 14th	.517 18th	.175 18th	41.0% 17th	7.1% 18th	88.1 22nd
Sweeper	20.1%	86.5	28.7% 6th	31.7% 23rd	.259 2nd	.337 2nd	.296 5th	.592 5th	.255 5th	37.4% 5th	10.8% 4th	86.8 11th
Cutter	14.3%	91.7	20.0% 9th	27.3% 19th	.279 15th	.335 10th	.363 9th	.544 23rd	.209 25th	40.1% 16th	8.9% 18th	88.2 18th
Sinker	6.5%	95.9	11.7% 2nd	22.7% 6th	.246 30th	.298 30th	.326 26th	.444 30th	.146 27th	45.6% 13th	5.0% 29th	89.3 15th
Changeup	0.1%	87.6	26.3% 4th	33.6% 16th	.217 20th	.301 24th	.283 19th	.468 25th	.167 24th	32.8% 21st	6.9% 18th	86.6 14th
Whole mix, by usage			22.4% 5th	27.5% 17th	.256 6th	.332 12th	.317 13th	.556 20th	.225 23rd	42.9% 12th	9.3% 20th	89.0 19th

2025 season totals. Usage and Velo are Gavin Williams's; every other column is KCR's active hitters against that pitch type from every pitcher, not against him. (n) is KCR's place among the 30 clubs: 1 and green hit the pitch best, red is good for the pitcher.

Seth Lugo's mix vs. CLE bats

Seth Lugo's pitches			CLE hitters vs. that pitch type, from all pitchers
Pitch	Usage	Velo	Whiff%	Chase%	BA	xBA	xwOBA	xSLG	xISO	Hard%	Barrel%	Avg EV
4-Seam Fastball	21.1%	91.7	19.5% 7th	22.8% 10th	.248 18th	.332 19th	.333 26th	.584 25th	.252 25th	42.2% 29th	9.3% 27th	90.4 24th
Curveball	18.2%	78.9	26.4% 5th	27.4% 13th	.235 12th	.345 7th	.288 12th	.545 18th	.200 21st	35.6% 23rd	6.2% 25th	86.4 27th
Sinker	14.6%	91.3	13.5% 13th	23.3% 8th	.268 25th	.307 29th	.320 30th	.451 29th	.144 29th	37.6% 30th	4.3% 30th	89.0 20th
Cutter	14.1%	89.2	19.0% 6th	24.8% 5th	.243 29th	.320 23rd	.339 22nd	.571 15th	.251 12th	40.6% 14th	9.9% 12th	87.8 22nd
Changeup	9.6%	86.2	29.2% 9th	33.5% 15th	.221 19th	.296 28th	.265 25th	.447 29th	.151 27th	31.2% 26th	5.1% 28th	85.7 22nd
Slurve	9.4%	79.0	28.0% 10th	40.3% 28th	.203 14th	.323 14th	.377 2nd	.722 5th	.399 5th	27.4% 21st	11.1% 10th	92.2 2nd
Slider	5.6%	83.1	33.1% 15th	33.2% 25th	.229 15th	.314 25th	.290 19th	.565 13th	.251 10th	40.9% 9th	9.0% 15th	88.4 10th
Slow Curve	4.8%	71.1	0.0% 1st	0.0% 1st	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Sweeper	2.0%	80.6	27.7% 4th	29.5% 12th	.188 27th	.301 19th	.247 25th	.486 26th	.185 25th	27.3% 28th	7.5% 20th	83.8 30th
Split-Finger	0.5%	84.4	29.2% 5th	33.7% 15th	.234 8th	.324 13th	.270 8th	.480 19th	.156 22nd	29.4% 28th	5.0% 25th	85.3 27th
Whole mix, by usage			21.6% 3rd	26.3% 9th	.238 20th	.323 19th	.316 14th	.550 15th	.228 14th	37.0% 28th	7.7% 21st	88.5 14th

2025 season totals. Usage and Velo are Seth Lugo's; every other column is CLE's active hitters against that pitch type from every pitcher, not against him. (n) is CLE's place among the 30 clubs: 1 and green hit the pitch best, red is good for the pitcher.

Starting Pitchers Recent Performance

Gavin Williams Last 5 Starts

	H	A	Line	Total	IP	NP	K	BB	Hits	HR	ER	Runs	Opp Starter
10/18	CLE [ 6 ]	NYY [ 8 ]	+102	7.5	2.33	40	4	0	3	2	3	3	Luis Gil (R)
9/22	STL [ 2 ]	CLE [ 1 ]	+110	7.5	5.67	86	3	2	4	0	1	1	Andre Pallante (R)
9/17	CLE [ 1 ]	MIN [ 4 ]	-126	8.5	5	89	7	2	5	0	2	2	Zebby Matthews (R)
9/12	CLE [ 2 ]	TBR [ 5 ]	-134	7.5	5.33	90	5	2	7	1	3	3	Ryan Pepiot (R)
9/7	LAD [ 7 ]	CLE [ 2 ]	+130	9	0.67	37	0	3	2	0	5	5	Ryan Brasier (R)
Averages:					3.8	68.4	3.8	1.8	4.2	0.6	2.8	2.8

Seth Lugo Last 5 Starts

	H	A	Line	Total	IP	NP	K	BB	Hits	HR	ER	Runs	Opp Starter
10/9	KCR [ 2 ]	NYY [ 3 ]	-100	8	5	87	2	4	2	0	2	2	Clarke Schmidt (R)
10/2	BAL [ 1 ]	KCR [ 2 ]	+136	7.5	4.33	82	6	1	5	1	1	1	Zach Eflin (R)
9/28	ATL [ 2 ]	KCR [ 1 ]	+166	7.5	2	36	3	1	1	0	0	0	Reynaldo Lopez (R)
9/22	KCR [ 0 ]	SFG [ 2 ]	-112	6.5	7	89	5	0	3	0	2	2	Blake Snell (L)
9/16	KCR [ 6 ]	DET [ 7 ]	-134	8	4.67	96	4	2	8	1	4	4	Reese Olson (R)
Averages:					4.6	78	4	1.6	3.8	0.4	1.8	1.8

Bullpen Usage (Last 3 Days)

CLE Bullpen — Last 3 Days

Pitcher	3/26	3/27	3/28	App	IP	NP	K	BB	H	ER
Cade Smith	·	1.0 (15)	·	1	1.0	15	2	0	0	0
Emmanuel Clase	·	1.0 (18)	·	1	1.0	18	1	0	3	1
Hunter Gaddis	·	1.0 (20)	·	1	1.0	20	1	1	0	0
Paul Sewald	·	1.0 (11)	·	1	1.0	11	1	0	0	0
Tim Herrin	·	1.0 (11)	·	1	1.0	11	2	0	0	0
Team Totals (5 arms used):				5	5.0	75	7	1	3	1

A day reads innings (pitches). NP = number of pitches over the window.

KCR Bullpen — Last 3 Days

Pitcher	3/26	3/27	3/28	App	IP	NP	K	BB	H	ER
Angel Zerpa	·	1.1 (19)	·	1	1.1	19	0	0	3	1
Carlos Estevez	·	1.0 (14)	·	1	1.0	14	1	0	0	0
Hunter Harvey	·	1.0 (7)	·	1	1.0	7	1	0	0	0
Sam Long	·	1.0 (19)	·	1	1.0	19	0	1	2	2
Lucas Erceg	·	0.2 (10)	·	1	0.2	10	0	0	0	0
Team Totals (5 arms used):				5	5.0	69	2	1	5	3

A day reads innings (pitches). NP = number of pitches over the window.

Notable Trends

First week of the season: these records include last season.

The Guardians are 71.7% (33-13-3) to the under as an away dog

View All Records

Royals (Home)

The Royals are 52.9% (90-80) on the moneyline

The Royals are 58.8% (30-21) on the moneyline as a home fav

The Royals are 56.3% (94-73-3) to the under

The Royals are 54.9% (28-23) to the under as a home fav

The Royals are 50% (1-1) (L30 days) on the moneyline

The Royals are 50% (1-1) (L30 days) on the moneyline as a home fav

The Royals are 50% (1-1) (L30 days) to the over

The Royals are 50% (1-1) (L30 days) to the over as a home fav

Guardians (Away)

The Guardians are 56.1% (97-76) on the moneyline

The Guardians are 42.9% (21-28) on the moneyline as an away dog

The Guardians are 53.7% (87-75-11) to the under

The Guardians are 71.7% (33-13-3) to the under as an away dog

The Guardians are 50% (1-1) (L30 days) on the moneyline

The Guardians are 50% (1-1) (L30 days) on the moneyline as an away dog

The Guardians are 50% (1-1) (L30 days) to the over

The Guardians are 50% (1-1) (L30 days) to the over as an away dog

Past Matchups (Last 7) Follow global filters

Date	Team Starter	Runs		Opponent Starter	Opp Runs	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
03/27/25 2025	Royals Cole Ragans (L)	4	vs.	Guardians Ben Lively (R)	7 F/10	-172	8.5	+3	O 11 +2.5
09/04/24 2024	Royals Seth Lugo (R)	4	vs.	Guardians Ben Lively (R)	1	-132	8.5	-3	U 5 -3.5
09/03/24 2024	Royals Brady Singer (R)	1	vs.	Guardians Tanner Bibee (R)	7	+114	8.0	+6	P 8 0.0
09/02/24 2024	Royals Michael Wacha (R)	2	vs.	Guardians Gavin Williams (R)	4	-116	8.0	+2	U 6 -2.0
08/28/24 2024	Royals Michael Wacha (R)	5	@	Guardians Tanner Bibee (R)	7	+118	8.0	+2	O 12 +4.0
08/27/24 2024	Royals Michael Lorenzen (R)	6	@	Guardians Gavin Williams (R)	1	+136	9.0	-5	U 7 -2.0
08/26/24 2024	Royals Cole Ragans (R)	4	@	Guardians Nick Sandlin (L)	3	-126	8.5	-1	U 7 -1.5

Royals as Home (4 games)		2.8	-	-	4.8	-123	8.3	+2.0	U 7.5 -0.8

All Games Avg (7 games)		3.7	-	-	4.3	-109	8.4	+0.6	U 8.0 -0.4

MLB Matchups: Predictions, Odds & Betting Trends

Final: 3 – 4 Cleveland Guardians @ Kansas City Royals window.TMB_PAGE_CONTEXT = { page: 'matchup', sport: "mlb", away_team: "Cleveland Guardians", home_team: "Kansas City Royals", game_date: "2025-03-29" };

Odds Full MLB odds board

Injury Report CLENo report KCNo report

Notes

Guardians

Situational Factor(s)

Royals

Situational Factor(s)

Guardians

Royals

Filters

Schedules

Guardians Schedule Follow global filters

Royals Schedule Follow global filters

Team Comparison Stats Loading...

Records

Pitch Mix vs. Bats

Starting Pitchers Recent Performance

Bullpen Usage (Last 3 Days)

Notable Trends

View All Records

Royals (Home)

Guardians (Away)

Past Matchups (Last 7) Follow global filters

Final: 3 – 4
Cleveland Guardians @ Kansas City Royals