NFL Matchups: Predictions, Odds & Betting Trends

Sun, 1/12, Final: 23 – 20
Washington Commanders @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Commanders: 12-5 (70.6%) - NFC East

Buccaneers: 10-7 (58.8%) - NFC South

Line: -3.0

Total: 51.5

Open: -3

Open: 50.5

Team totals: Commanders 24.5 · Buccaneers 27.5

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Injury Report WASNo report TBNo report

Notes

Commanders

Situational Factor(s)

In-season revenge

In-season revenge (2 TDs+)

Buccaneers

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Baller Index Our Exclusive NFL Baller Index is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions essentially look for teams that have over- or under-performed, in terms of points scored, relative to what would be expected based on their underlying metrics and who might be in for regression. While it does not factor in injuries, situational spots, or historic matchups into account, it can be a good place to start when thinking about a particular matchup.

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Filters

Team Comparison Stats, Records and the sections tied to them follow these filters; each team's Schedule and Historical Matchups follow them when their switch is on.

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Schedules

Commanders Schedule Follow global filters

Date	Team	Points		Opponent	Opp Pts	Yds	Rush	Rec	Int	Fum	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
01/26/25 2024	Commanders	-	@	Eagles	-	-	-	-	-	-	+6.0	46.5	-	-
01/18/25 2024	Commanders	-	@	Lions	-	-	-	-	-	-	+8.5	55.5	-	-
01/12/25 2024	Commanders	-	@	Buccaneers	-	-	-	-	-	-	+3.0	51.5	-	-
01/05/25 2024	Commanders	23	@	Cowboys	19	312	113	199	0	1	-7.0	43.5	-4	U 42 -1.5
12/29/24 2024	Commanders	30	vs.	Falcons	24 OT	443	216	227	1	1	-3.5	46.5	-6	O 54 +7.5
12/22/24 2024	Commanders	36	vs.	Eagles	33	371	113	258	1	3	+4.0	47.0	-3	O 69 +22.0
12/15/24 2024	Commanders	20	@	Saints	19	363	137	226	1	1	-7.5	44.5	-1	U 39 -5.5
12/01/24 2024	Commanders	42	vs.	Titans	19	473	267	206	0	1	-6.0	45.5	-23	O 61 +15.5
11/24/24 2024	Commanders	26	vs.	Cowboys	34	420	145	275	0	2	-10.5	44.5	+8	O 60 +15.5
11/14/24 2024	Commanders	18	@	Eagles	26	284	93	191	0	1	+4.5	49.5	+8	U 44 -5.5
11/10/24 2024	Commanders	27	vs.	Steelers	28	262	60	202	1	2	-1.5	45.0	+1	O 55 +10.0
11/03/24 2024	Commanders	27	@	Giants	22	358	149	209	0	0	-4.5	44.5	-5	O 49 +4.5
10/27/24 2024	Commanders	18	vs.	Bears	15	494	168	326	0	1	-1.5	46.5	-3	U 33 -13.5

Away Games Avg (4 games)		22.0	-	-	21.5	329	123	206	0.3	0.8	-3.6	45.5	-0.5 -3.1	U 43.5 -2.0

All Games Avg (10 games)		26.7	-	-	23.9	378	146	232	0.4	1.3	-3.4	45.7	-2.8 -0.6	O 50.6 +4.9

Buccaneers Schedule Follow global filters

Date	Team	Points		Opponent	Opp Pts	Yds	Rush	Rec	Int	Fum	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
09/15/25 2025	Buccaneers	-	@	Texans	-	-	-	-	-	-	+2.5	42.5	-	-
09/07/25 2025	Buccaneers	-	@	Falcons	-	-	-	-	-	-	-1.5	47.5	-	-
01/12/25 2024	Buccaneers	-	vs.	Commanders	-	-	-	-	-	-	-3.0	51.5	-	-
01/05/25 2024	Buccaneers	27	vs.	Saints	19	400	179	221	0	1	-14.5	44.5	-8	O 46 +1.5
12/29/24 2024	Buccaneers	48	vs.	Panthers	14	561	202	359	0	0	-9.5	47.5	-34	O 62 +14.5
12/22/24 2024	Buccaneers	24	@	Cowboys	26	437	134	303	0	3	-6.0	49.0	+2	O 50 +1.0
12/15/24 2024	Buccaneers	40	@	Chargers	17	511	223	288	1	1	+3.0	46.0	-23	O 57 +11.0
12/08/24 2024	Buccaneers	28	vs.	Raiders	13	447	152	295	1	2	-7.0	47.0	-15	U 41 -6.0
12/01/24 2024	Buccaneers	26	@	Panthers	23 OT	476	236	240	0	2	-7.0	46.0	-3	O 49 +3.0
11/24/24 2024	Buccaneers	30	@	Giants	7	450	156	294	0	4	-6.0	40.5	-23	U 37 -3.5
11/10/24 2024	Buccaneers	20	vs.	49ers	23	226	110	116	0	3	+6.5	50.5	+3	U 43 -7.5
11/04/24 2024	Buccaneers	24	@	Chiefs	30 OT	295	95	200	0	0	+9.0	45.5	+6	O 54 +8.5
10/27/24 2024	Buccaneers	26	vs.	Falcons	31	432	102	330	0	2	+1.5	47.5	+5	O 57 +9.5

Home Games Avg (5 games)		29.8	-	-	20.0	413	149	264	0.2	1.6	-4.6	47.4	-9.8 +5.2	O 49.8 +2.4

All Games Avg (10 games)		29.3	-	-	20.3	424	159	265	0.2	1.8	-3.0	46.4	-9.0 +6.0	O 49.6 +3.2

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Records

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Notable Trends

The Buccaneers are 70.6% (12-5) to the over

The Buccaneers are 80% (4-1) (L30 days) to the over

The Buccaneers are 75% (3-1) (L30 days) to the over as a fav

The Commanders are 83.3% (5-1) to the over as a dog

The Commanders are 80% (4-1) to the over as an away dog

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Buccaneers (Home)

The Buccaneers are 58.8% (10-7) against the spread

The Buccaneers are 55.6% (5-4) against the spread at home

The Buccaneers are 55.6% (5-4) against the spread as a fav

The Buccaneers are 60% (3-2) against the spread as a home fav

The Buccaneers are 70.6% (12-5) to the over

The Buccaneers are 66.7% (6-3) to the over at home

The Buccaneers are 66.7% (6-3) to the over as a fav

The Buccaneers are 60% (3-2) to the over as a home fav

The Buccaneers are 60% (3-2) (L30 days) against the spread

The Buccaneers are 66.7% (2-1) (L30 days) against the spread at home

The Buccaneers are 50% (2-2) (L30 days) against the spread as a fav

The Buccaneers are 66.7% (2-1) (L30 days) against the spread as a home fav

The Buccaneers are 80% (4-1) (L30 days) to the over

The Buccaneers are 66.7% (2-1) (L30 days) to the over at home

The Buccaneers are 75% (3-1) (L30 days) to the over as a fav

The Buccaneers are 66.7% (2-1) (L30 days) to the over as a home fav

Commanders (Away)

The Commanders are 62.5% (10-6-1) against the spread

The Commanders are 42.9% (3-4-1) against the spread away

The Commanders are 60% (3-2-1) against the spread as a dog

The Commanders are 50% (2-2-1) against the spread as an away dog

The Commanders are 64.7% (11-6) to the over

The Commanders are 62.5% (5-3) to the over away