NFL Matchups: Predictions, Odds & Betting Trends

Sun, 11/17, Final: 28 – 27
Indianapolis Colts @ New York Jets

Colts: 4-6 (40.0%) - AFC South

Jets: 3-7 (30.0%) - AFC East

Line: -4.5

Total: 43.0

Open: -4

Open: 44

Team totals: Colts 19.5 · Jets 23.5

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Injury Report INDNo report NYJNo report

Notes

Colts

Nothing active

Jets

Situational Factor(s)

Lookahead to bye week

Coming off a loss as a favorite (bounce back)

Baller Index Our Exclusive NFL Baller Index is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions essentially look for teams that have over- or under-performed, in terms of points scored, relative to what would be expected based on their underlying metrics and who might be in for regression. While it does not factor in injuries, situational spots, or historic matchups into account, it can be a good place to start when thinking about a particular matchup.

Model Side

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Model Total

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Team Comparison Stats, Records and the sections tied to them follow these filters; each team's Schedule and Historical Matchups follow them when their switch is on.

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Schedules

Colts Schedule Follow global filters

Date	Team	Points		Opponent	Opp Pts	Yds	Rush	Rec	Int	Fum	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
12/01/24 2024	Colts	-	@	Patriots	-	-	-	-	-	-	-2.5	41.0	-	-
11/24/24 2024	Colts	-	vs.	Lions	-	-	-	-	-	-	+7.0	50.5	-	-
11/17/24 2024	Colts	-	@	Jets	-	-	-	-	-	-	+4.5	43.0	-	-
11/10/24 2024	Colts	20	vs.	Bills	30	393	121	272	2	2	+4.5	46.5	+10	O 50 +3.5
11/03/24 2024	Colts	13	@	Vikings	21	247	68	179	2	1	+6.0	47.0	+8	U 34 -13.0
10/27/24 2024	Colts	20	@	Texans	23	338	163	175	0	2	+5.0	45.0	+3	U 43 -2.0
10/20/24 2024	Colts	16	vs.	Dolphins	10	284	155	129	0	1	-3.0	44.0	-6	U 26 -18.0
10/13/24 2024	Colts	20	@	Titans	17	269	80	189	1	0	+2.5	41.5	-3	U 37 -4.5
10/06/24 2024	Colts	34	@	Jaguars	37	482	99	383	1	1	+4.0	44.5	+3	O 71 +26.5
09/29/24 2024	Colts	27	vs.	Steelers	24	372	133	239	0	1	+2.5	41.0	-3	O 51 +10.0
09/22/24 2024	Colts	21	vs.	Bears	16	317	150	167	2	0	-2.5	43.0	-5	U 37 -6.0
09/15/24 2024	Colts	10	@	Packers	16	344	140	204	0	3	-3.0	41.5	+6	U 26 -15.5
09/08/24 2024	Colts	27	vs.	Texans	29	316	104	212	0	0	+3.0	48.5	+2	O 56 +7.5

Away Games Avg (5 games)		19.4	-	-	22.8	336	110	226	0.8	1.4	+2.9	43.9	+3.4 -0.5	U 42.2 -1.7

All Games Avg (10 games)		20.8	-	-	22.3	336	121	215	0.8	1.1	+1.9	44.3	+1.5 +0.4	U 43.1 -1.2

Jets Schedule Follow global filters

Date	Team	Points		Opponent	Opp Pts	Yds	Rush	Rec	Int	Fum	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
12/08/24 2024	Jets	-	@	Dolphins	-	-	-	-	-	-	+6.5	45.0	-	-
12/01/24 2024	Jets	-	vs.	Seahawks	-	-	-	-	-	-	-1.5	41.5	-	-
11/17/24 2024	Jets	-	vs.	Colts	-	-	-	-	-	-	-4.5	43.0	-	-
11/10/24 2024	Jets	6	@	Cardinals	31	230	79	151	0	1	-2.0	46.0	+25	U 37 -9.0
10/31/24 2024	Jets	21	vs.	Texans	13	311	100	211	0	2	-2.5	43.5	-8	U 34 -9.5
10/27/24 2024	Jets	22	@	Patriots	25	345	112	233	0	2	-7.0	41.5	+3	O 47 +5.5
10/20/24 2024	Jets	15	@	Steelers	37	330	54	276	0	2	-3.0	40.0	+22	O 52 +12.0
10/14/24 2024	Jets	20	vs.	Bills	23	415	121	294	0	1	+1.5	41.0	+3	O 43 +2.0
10/06/24 2024	Jets	17	vs.	Vikings	23	280	36	244	1	1	+2.5	42.0	+6	U 40 -2.0
09/29/24 2024	Jets	9	vs.	Broncos	10	289	64	225	0	1	-8.0	39.5	+1	U 19 -20.5
09/19/24 2024	Jets	24	vs.	Patriots	3	414	133	281	0	1	-6.5	39.5	-21	U 27 -12.5
09/15/24 2024	Jets	24	@	Titans	17	277	101	176	1	0	-3.5	41.0	-7	P 41 0.0
09/09/24 2024	Jets	19	@	49ers	32	271	68	203	0	1	+3.5	43.0	+13	O 51 +8.0

Home Games Avg (4 games)		18.5	-	-	12.3	357	105	253	0.0	1.3	-3.9	40.9	-6.3 +2.4	U 30.8 -10.1

All Games Avg (10 games)		17.7	-	-	21.4	316	87	229	0.2	1.2	-2.5	41.7	+3.7 -6.2	U 39.1 -2.6

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Records

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Notable Trends

The Jets are 30% (3-7) against the spread

The Jets are 75% (3-1) to the under at home

The Jets are 20% (1-4) (L30 days) against the spread

The Jets are 25% (1-3) (L30 days) against the spread as a fav

The Colts are 70% (7-3) against the spread

The Colts are 71.4% (5-2) against the spread as a dog

The Colts are 75% (3-1) against the spread as an away dog

The Colts are 80% (4-1) to the under away

The Colts are 75% (3-1) to the under as an away dog

The Colts are 80% (4-1) (L30 days) to the under

The Colts are 75% (3-1) (L30 days) to the under as a dog

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Jets (Home)

The Jets are 30% (3-7) against the spread

The Jets are 50% (2-2) against the spread at home

The Jets are 42.9% (3-4) against the spread as a fav

The Jets are 66.7% (2-1) against the spread as a home fav

The Jets are 55.6% (5-4-1) to the under

The Jets are 75% (3-1) to the under at home

The Jets are 66.7% (4-2-1) to the under as a fav

The Jets are 100% (3-0) to the under as a home fav

The Jets are 20% (1-4) (L30 days) against the spread

The Jets are 50% (1-1) (L30 days) against the spread at home

The Jets are 25% (1-3) (L30 days) against the spread as a fav

The Jets are 100% (1-0) (L30 days) against the spread as a home fav

The Jets are 60% (3-2) (L30 days) to the over

The Jets are 50% (1-1) (L30 days) to the over at home

The Jets are 50% (2-2) (L30 days) to the over as a fav

The Jets are 100% (1-0) (L30 days) to the under as a home fav

Colts (Away)

The Colts are 70% (7-3) against the spread

The Colts are 60% (3-2) against the spread away

The Colts are 71.4% (5-2) against the spread as a dog

The Colts are 75% (3-1) against the spread as an away dog

The Colts are 60% (6-4) to the under

The Colts are 80% (4-1) to the under away

The Colts are 57.1% (4-3) to the over as a dog

The Colts are 75% (3-1) to the under as an away dog

The Colts are 60% (3-2) (L30 days) against the spread

The Colts are 66.7% (2-1) (L30 days) against the spread away

The Colts are 50% (2-2) (L30 days) against the spread as a dog

The Colts are 66.7% (2-1) (L30 days) against the spread as an away dog

The Colts are 80% (4-1) (L30 days) to the under

The Colts are 100% (3-0) (L30 days) to the under away

The Colts are 75% (3-1) (L30 days) to the under as a dog

The Colts are 100% (3-0) (L30 days) to the under as an away dog

Historical Matchups (Last 3 Seasons, Max 10) Follow global filters

Date	Team	Pts		Opponent	Pts	Yds	Rush	Rec	Int	Fum	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
11/04/21 2021	Jets	30	@	Colts	45	532	260	272	1	2	+10.5	46.0	+15	O 75 +29.0

All Games Avg (1 games)		30.0	-	-	45.0	532	260	272	1.0	2.0	+10.5	46.0	+15.0 -4.5	O 75.0 +29.0

Algorithm	Model Side
DVOA ZScores Normalized DVOA comparision.	Neutral
Basic Stats 8-feature regression.	Neutral
Luck Regression Looking at things like int, fumbles, etc.	Neutral
ATS Analysis 2-feature logistic regression.	Neutral
Cover Summary	No Bet
OVERALL	No Spread Edge \| No Total Edge

NFL Matchups: Predictions, Odds & Betting Trends

Sun, 11/17, Final: 28 – 27 Indianapolis Colts @ New York Jets window.TMB_PAGE_CONTEXT = { page: 'matchup', sport: "nfl", away_team: "Indianapolis Colts", home_team: "New York Jets", game_date: "2024-11-17" };

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Injury Report INDNo report NYJNo report

Notes

Colts

Jets

Situational Factor(s)

Model Side

Model Total

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Algorithm Breakdown

Filters

Schedules

Colts Schedule Follow global filters

Jets Schedule Follow global filters

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Records

Notable Trends

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Jets (Home)

Colts (Away)

Historical Matchups (Last 3 Seasons, Max 10) Follow global filters

Sun, 11/17, Final: 28 – 27
Indianapolis Colts @ New York Jets