NFL Matchups: Predictions, Odds & Betting Trends

Sun, 11/10, Final: 23 – 20
San Francisco 49ers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

49ers: 4-4 (50.0%) - NFC West

Buccaneers: 4-5 (44.4%) - NFC South

Line: +6.5

Total: 50.5

Open: +6

Open: 48

Team totals: 49ers 28.5 · Buccaneers 21.5

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Injury Report SFNo report TBNo report

Notes

49ers

Situational Factor(s)

Lookahead: next game versus division rival

West Coast team traveling East

Extended rest: Off a bye week

Rest Advantage

Buccaneers

Situational Factor(s)

Lookahead to bye week

Rest Disadvantage

Short rest: 4 or 5 days

Baller Index Our Exclusive NFL Baller Index is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions essentially look for teams that have over- or under-performed, in terms of points scored, relative to what would be expected based on their underlying metrics and who might be in for regression. While it does not factor in injuries, situational spots, or historic matchups into account, it can be a good place to start when thinking about a particular matchup.

Model Side

49ers

60.31% probability

Model Total

No clear side

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Filters

Team Comparison Stats, Records and the sections tied to them follow these filters; each team's Schedule and Historical Matchups follow them when their switch is on.

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Schedules

49ers Schedule Follow global filters

Date	Team	Points		Opponent	Opp Pts	Yds	Rush	Rec	Int	Fum	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
11/24/24 2024	49ers	-	@	Packers	-	-	-	-	-	-	+6.5	44.5	-	-
11/17/24 2024	49ers	-	vs.	Seahawks	-	-	-	-	-	-	-6.0	48.5	-	-
11/10/24 2024	49ers	-	@	Buccaneers	-	-	-	-	-	-	-6.5	50.5	-	-
10/27/24 2024	49ers	30	vs.	Cowboys	24	483	223	260	2	1	-5.5	47.5	-6	O 54 +6.5
10/20/24 2024	49ers	18	vs.	Chiefs	28	313	101	212	2	1	-2.5	48.0	+10	U 46 -2.0
10/10/24 2024	49ers	36	@	Seahawks	24	483	228	255	2	0	-4.0	49.0	-12	O 60 +11.0
10/06/24 2024	49ers	23	vs.	Cardinals	24	397	153	244	1	1	-7.5	49.0	+1	U 47 -2.0
09/29/24 2024	49ers	30	vs.	Patriots	13	436	148	288	1	3	-10.5	42.5	-17	O 43 +0.5
09/22/24 2024	49ers	24	@	Rams	27	429	137	292	0	2	-6.0	44.5	+3	O 51 +6.5
09/15/24 2024	49ers	17	@	Vikings	23	421	102	319	1	3	-4.5	46.5	+6	U 40 -6.5
09/09/24 2024	49ers	32	vs.	Jets	19	411	180	231	1	0	-3.5	43.0	-13	O 51 +8.0
Last season · shown for reference, not in the averages
02/11/24 2023	49ers	22	vs.	Chiefs	25 OT	386	110	276	1	2	-1.0	47.5	+3	U 47 -0.5
01/28/24 2023	49ers	34	vs.	Lions	31	422	155	267	0	0	-7.0	53.5	-3	O 65 +11.5

Away Games Avg (3 games this season)		25.7	-	-	24.7	444	156	289	1.0	1.7	-4.8	46.7	-1.0 -3.8	O 50.3 +3.7

All Games Avg (8 games this season)		26.3	-	-	22.8	422	159	263	1.3	1.4	-5.5	46.3	-3.5 -2.0	O 49.0 +2.8

Buccaneers Schedule Follow global filters

Date	Team	Points		Opponent	Opp Pts	Yds	Rush	Rec	Int	Fum	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
12/01/24 2024	Buccaneers	-	@	Panthers	-	-	-	-	-	-	-7.0	46.0	-	-
11/24/24 2024	Buccaneers	-	@	Giants	-	-	-	-	-	-	-6.0	40.5	-	-
11/10/24 2024	Buccaneers	-	vs.	49ers	-	-	-	-	-	-	+6.5	50.5	-	-
11/04/24 2024	Buccaneers	24	@	Chiefs	30 OT	295	95	200	0	0	+9.0	45.5	+6	O 54 +8.5
10/27/24 2024	Buccaneers	26	vs.	Falcons	31	432	102	330	0	2	+1.5	47.5	+5	O 57 +9.5
10/21/24 2024	Buccaneers	31	vs.	Ravens	41	495	125	370	0	1	+4.5	51.0	+10	O 72 +21.0
10/13/24 2024	Buccaneers	51	@	Saints	27	554	277	277	2	1	-3.5	42.5	-24	O 78 +35.5
10/03/24 2024	Buccaneers	30	@	Falcons	36 OT	340	160	180	1	2	+2.5	44.0	+6	O 66 +22.0
09/29/24 2024	Buccaneers	33	vs.	Eagles	16	458	111	347	0	1	+1.0	42.0	-17	O 49 +7.0
09/22/24 2024	Buccaneers	7	vs.	Broncos	26	254	91	163	0	1	-6.0	40.5	+19	U 33 -7.5
09/15/24 2024	Buccaneers	20	@	Lions	16	255	70	185	2	2	+7.5	51.5	-4	U 36 -15.5
09/08/24 2024	Buccaneers	37	vs.	Commanders	20	401	112	289	0	0	-4.0	42.5	-17	O 57 +14.5
Last season · shown for reference, not in the averages
01/21/24 2023	Buccaneers	23	@	Lions	31	438	89	349	0	0	+6.0	49.0	+8	O 54 +5.0

Home Games Avg (5 games this season)		26.8	-	-	26.8	408	108	300	0.0	1.0	-0.6	44.7	0.0 -0.6	O 53.6 +8.9

All Games Avg (9 games this season)		28.8	-	-	27.0	387	127	260	0.6	1.1	+1.4	45.2	-1.8 +3.2	O 55.8 +10.6

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Records

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Notable Trends

The Buccaneers are 77.8% (7-2) to the over

The Buccaneers are 80% (4-1) to the over at home

The Buccaneers are 83.3% (5-1) to the over as a dog

The Buccaneers are 100% (4-0) (L30 days) to the over

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Buccaneers (Home)

The Buccaneers are 55.6% (5-4) against the spread

The Buccaneers are 40% (2-3) against the spread at home

The Buccaneers are 50% (3-3) against the spread as a dog

The Buccaneers are 33.3% (1-2) against the spread as a home dog

The Buccaneers are 77.8% (7-2) to the over

The Buccaneers are 80% (4-1) to the over at home

The Buccaneers are 83.3% (5-1) to the over as a dog

The Buccaneers are 100% (3-0) to the over as a home dog

The Buccaneers are 50% (2-2) (L30 days) against the spread

The Buccaneers are 0% (0-2) (L30 days) against the spread at home

The Buccaneers are 33.3% (1-2) (L30 days) against the spread as a dog

The Buccaneers are 0% (0-2) (L30 days) against the spread as a home dog

The Buccaneers are 100% (4-0) (L30 days) to the over

The Buccaneers are 100% (2-0) (L30 days) to the over at home

The Buccaneers are 100% (3-0) (L30 days) to the over as a dog

The Buccaneers are 100% (2-0) (L30 days) to the over as a home dog

49ers (Away)

The 49ers are 50% (4-4) against the spread

The 49ers are 33.3% (1-2) against the spread away

The 49ers are 50% (4-4) against the spread as a fav

The 49ers are 33.3% (1-2) against the spread as an away fav

The 49ers are 62.5% (5-3) to the over

The 49ers are 66.7% (2-1) to the over away

The 49ers are 62.5% (5-3) to the over as a fav

The 49ers are 66.7% (2-1) to the over as an away fav

The 49ers are 50% (2-2) (L30 days) against the spread

The 49ers are 100% (1-0) (L30 days) against the spread away

The 49ers are 50% (2-2) (L30 days) against the spread as a fav

The 49ers are 100% (1-0) (L30 days) against the spread as an away fav

The 49ers are 50% (2-2) (L30 days) to the over

The 49ers are 100% (1-0) (L30 days) to the over away

The 49ers are 50% (2-2) (L30 days) to the over as a fav

The 49ers are 100% (1-0) (L30 days) to the over as an away fav

Historical Matchups (Last 3 Seasons, Max 10) Follow global filters

Date	Team	Pts		Opponent	Pts	Yds	Rush	Rec	Int	Fum	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
11/19/23 2023	Buccaneers	14	@	49ers	27	448	115	333	1	0	+13.5	42.0	+13	U 41 -1.0
12/11/22 2022	Buccaneers	7	@	49ers	35	404	209	195	2	1	+3.5	38.5	+28	O 42 +3.5

All Games Avg (2 games)		10.5	-	-	31.0	426	162	264	1.5	0.5	+8.5	40.3	+20.5 -12.0	O 41.5 +1.3

Algorithm	Model Side
DVOA ZScores Normalized DVOA comparision.	49ers (2x)
Basic Stats 8-feature regression.	49ers
Luck Regression Looking at things like int, fumbles, etc.	49ers (2x)
ATS Analysis 2-feature logistic regression.	Neutral
Cover Summary	49ers
OVERALL	49ers \| No Total Edge

NFL Matchups: Predictions, Odds & Betting Trends

Sun, 11/10, Final: 23 – 20 San Francisco 49ers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers window.TMB_PAGE_CONTEXT = { page: 'matchup', sport: "nfl", away_team: "San Francisco 49ers", home_team: "Tampa Bay Buccaneers", game_date: "2024-11-10" };

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Injury Report SFNo report TBNo report

Notes

49ers

Situational Factor(s)

Buccaneers

Situational Factor(s)

Model Side

Model Total

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Algorithm Breakdown

Filters

Schedules

49ers Schedule Follow global filters

Buccaneers Schedule Follow global filters

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Records

Notable Trends

View All Records

Buccaneers (Home)

49ers (Away)

Historical Matchups (Last 3 Seasons, Max 10) Follow global filters

Sun, 11/10, Final: 23 – 20
San Francisco 49ers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers