NFL Matchups: Predictions, Odds & Betting Trends

Sun, 11/3, Final: 27 – 22
Washington Commanders @ New York Giants

Commanders: 6-2 (75.0%) - NFC East

Giants: 2-6 (25.0%) - NFC East

Line: +4.5

Total: 44.5

Open: +2

Open: 43.5

Team totals: Commanders 23.5 · Giants 20.5

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Injury Report WASNo report NYGNo report

Notes

Commanders

Situational Factor(s)

Rest Advantage

Giants

Situational Factor(s)

Rest Disadvantage

Short rest: 4 or 5 days

In-season revenge

Baller Index Our Exclusive NFL Baller Index is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions essentially look for teams that have over- or under-performed, in terms of points scored, relative to what would be expected based on their underlying metrics and who might be in for regression. While it does not factor in injuries, situational spots, or historic matchups into account, it can be a good place to start when thinking about a particular matchup.

Model Side

No clear side

Model Total

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Filters

Team Comparison Stats, Records and the sections tied to them follow these filters; each team's Schedule and Historical Matchups follow them when their switch is on.

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Schedules

Commanders Schedule Follow global filters

Date	Team	Points		Opponent	Opp Pts	Yds	Rush	Rec	Int	Fum	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
11/14/24 2024	Commanders	-	@	Eagles	-	-	-	-	-	-	+4.5	49.5	-	-
11/10/24 2024	Commanders	-	vs.	Steelers	-	-	-	-	-	-	-1.5	45.0	-	-
11/03/24 2024	Commanders	-	@	Giants	-	-	-	-	-	-	-4.5	44.5	-	-
10/27/24 2024	Commanders	18	vs.	Bears	15	494	168	326	0	1	-1.5	46.5	-3	U 33 -13.5
10/20/24 2024	Commanders	40	vs.	Panthers	7	425	214	211	2	1	-10.0	51.0	-33	U 47 -4.0
10/13/24 2024	Commanders	23	@	Ravens	30	321	52	269	1	0	+7.0	50.5	+7	O 53 +2.5
10/06/24 2024	Commanders	34	vs.	Browns	13	451	215	236	0	2	-3.0	43.5	-21	O 47 +3.5
09/29/24 2024	Commanders	42	@	Cardinals	14	449	216	233	0	0	+3.5	49.0	-28	O 56 +7.0
09/23/24 2024	Commanders	38	@	Bengals	33	362	108	254	0	1	+7.5	45.5	-5	O 71 +25.5
09/15/24 2024	Commanders	21	vs.	Giants	18	441	215	226	0	0	-1.5	43.0	-3	U 39 -4.0
09/08/24 2024	Commanders	20	@	Buccaneers	37	322	138	184	0	3	+4.0	42.5	+17	O 57 +14.5
Last season · shown for reference, not in the averages
01/07/24 2023	Commanders	10	vs.	Cowboys	38	207	50	157	1	1	+13.0	48.0	+28	P 48 0.0
12/31/23 2023	Commanders	10	vs.	49ers	27	231	62	169	0	0	+14.0	48.5	+17	U 37 -11.5

Away Games Avg (4 games this season)		30.8	-	-	28.5	364	129	235	0.3	1.0	+5.5	46.9	-2.3 +7.8	O 59.3 +12.4

All Games Avg (8 games this season)		29.5	-	-	20.9	408	166	242	0.4	1.0	+0.8	46.4	-8.6 +9.4	O 50.4 +3.9

Giants Schedule Follow global filters

Date	Team	Points		Opponent	Opp Pts	Yds	Rush	Rec	Int	Fum	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
11/24/24 2024	Giants	-	vs.	Buccaneers	-	-	-	-	-	-	+6.0	40.5	-	-
11/10/24 2024	Giants	-	vs.	Panthers	-	-	-	-	-	-	-7.0	40.0	-	-
11/03/24 2024	Giants	-	vs.	Commanders	-	-	-	-	-	-	+4.5	44.5	-	-
10/28/24 2024	Giants	18	@	Steelers	26	421	157	264	0	1	+5.5	36.5	+8	O 44 +7.5
10/20/24 2024	Giants	3	vs.	Eagles	28	181	76	105	0	3	+3.0	41.5	+25	U 31 -10.5
10/13/24 2024	Giants	7	vs.	Bengals	17	324	119	205	0	0	+4.5	46.0	+10	U 24 -22.0
10/06/24 2024	Giants	29	@	Seahawks	20	432	175	257	0	2	+7.0	42.5	-9	O 49 +6.5
09/26/24 2024	Giants	15	vs.	Cowboys	20	307	26	281	0	1	+6.0	45.0	+5	U 35 -10.0
09/22/24 2024	Giants	21	@	Browns	15	348	112	236	0	3	+6.5	38.0	-6	U 36 -2.0
09/15/24 2024	Giants	18	@	Commanders	21	307	129	178	0	1	+1.5	43.0	+3	U 39 -4.0
09/08/24 2024	Giants	6	vs.	Vikings	28	260	74	186	1	1	+1.0	42.0	+22	U 34 -8.0
Last season · shown for reference, not in the averages
01/07/24 2023	Giants	27	vs.	Eagles	10	420	109	311	2	1	+5.0	42.0	-17	U 37 -5.0
12/31/23 2023	Giants	25	vs.	Rams	26	424	105	319	2	1	+6.0	43.5	+1	O 51 +7.5

Home Games Avg (4 games this season)		7.8	-	-	23.3	268	74	194	0.3	1.3	+3.6	43.6	+15.5 -11.9	U 31.0 -12.6

All Games Avg (8 games this season)		14.6	-	-	21.9	323	109	214	0.1	1.5	+4.4	41.8	+7.3 -2.9	U 36.5 -5.3

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Records

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Notable Trends

The Giants are 25% (1-3) against the spread at home

The Giants are 25% (1-3) against the spread as a home dog

The Giants are 75% (6-2) to the under

The Giants are 100% (4-0) to the under at home

The Giants are 75% (6-2) to the under as a dog

The Giants are 100% (4-0) to the under as a home dog

The Giants are 25% (1-3) (L30 days) against the spread

The Giants are 25% (1-3) (L30 days) against the spread as a dog

The Commanders are 85.7% (6-1-1) against the spread

The Commanders are 100% (4-0) against the spread as a fav

The Commanders are 100% (4-0) to the over away

The Commanders are 75% (3-1) to the under as a fav

The Commanders are 100% (4-0-1) (L30 days) against the spread

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Giants (Home)

The Giants are 37.5% (3-5) against the spread

The Giants are 25% (1-3) against the spread at home

The Giants are 37.5% (3-5) against the spread as a dog

The Giants are 25% (1-3) against the spread as a home dog

The Giants are 75% (6-2) to the under

The Giants are 100% (4-0) to the under at home

The Giants are 75% (6-2) to the under as a dog

The Giants are 100% (4-0) to the under as a home dog

The Giants are 25% (1-3) (L30 days) against the spread

The Giants are 0% (0-2) (L30 days) against the spread at home

The Giants are 25% (1-3) (L30 days) against the spread as a dog

The Giants are 0% (0-2) (L30 days) against the spread as a home dog

The Giants are 50% (2-2) (L30 days) to the over

The Giants are 100% (2-0) (L30 days) to the under at home

The Giants are 50% (2-2) (L30 days) to the over as a dog

The Giants are 100% (2-0) (L30 days) to the under as a home dog

Commanders (Away)

The Commanders are 85.7% (6-1-1) against the spread

The Commanders are 66.7% (2-1-1) against the spread away

The Commanders are 100% (4-0) against the spread as a fav

The Commanders are 62.5% (5-3) to the over

The Commanders are 100% (4-0) to the over away

The Commanders are 75% (3-1) to the under as a fav

The Commanders are 100% (4-0-1) (L30 days) against the spread

The Commanders are 100% (1-0-1) (L30 days) against the spread away

The Commanders are 100% (3-0) (L30 days) against the spread as a fav

The Commanders are 60% (3-2) (L30 days) to the over

The Commanders are 100% (2-0) (L30 days) to the over away

The Commanders are 66.7% (2-1) (L30 days) to the under as a fav

Historical Matchups (Last 3 Seasons, Max 10) Follow global filters

Date	Team	Pts		Opponent	Pts	Yds	Rush	Rec	Int	Fum	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
09/15/24 2024	Giants	18	@	Commanders	21	441	215	226	0	0	+1.5	43.0	+3	U 39 -4.0
11/19/23 2023	Giants	31	@	Commanders	19	430	174	256	0	4	+7.5	39.0	-12	O 50 +11.0
10/22/23 2023	Giants	14	vs.	Commanders	7	385	106	279	1	3	+3.0	36.5	-7	U 21 -15.5
12/18/22 2022	Giants	20	@	Commanders	12	408	159	249	0	4	+4.0	40.5	-8	U 32 -8.5
12/04/22 2022	Giants	20	vs.	Commanders	20 OT	334	134	200	0	2	+2.5	40.0	0	P 40 0.0
01/09/22 2021	Giants	7	vs.	Commanders	22	197	94	103	0	1	+6.5	36.5	+15	U 29 -7.5
09/16/21 2021	Giants	29	@	Commanders	30	423	87	336	0	0	+4.0	41.5	+1	O 59 +17.5

Giants as Home (3 games)		13.7	-	-	16.3	305	111	194	0.3	2.0	+4.0	37.7	+2.7 +1.3	U 30.0 -7.7

All Games Avg (7 games)		19.9	-	-	18.7	374	138	236	0.1	2.0	+4.1	39.6	-1.1 +5.3	U 38.6 -1.0

Algorithm	Model Side
DVOA ZScores Normalized DVOA comparision.	Neutral
Basic Stats 8-feature regression.	Neutral
Luck Regression Looking at things like int, fumbles, etc.	Neutral
ATS Analysis 2-feature logistic regression.	Neutral
Cover Summary	No Bet
OVERALL	No Spread Edge \| No Total Edge

NFL Matchups: Predictions, Odds & Betting Trends

Sun, 11/3, Final: 27 – 22 Washington Commanders @ New York Giants window.TMB_PAGE_CONTEXT = { page: 'matchup', sport: "nfl", away_team: "Washington Commanders", home_team: "New York Giants", game_date: "2024-11-03" };

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Injury Report WASNo report NYGNo report

Notes

Commanders

Situational Factor(s)

Giants

Situational Factor(s)

Model Side

Model Total

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Algorithm Breakdown

Filters

Schedules

Commanders Schedule Follow global filters

Giants Schedule Follow global filters

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Records

Notable Trends

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Giants (Home)

Commanders (Away)

Historical Matchups (Last 3 Seasons, Max 10) Follow global filters

Sun, 11/3, Final: 27 – 22
Washington Commanders @ New York Giants